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D o ce n t e t i t o l a r e : Pr o f. E . C a r r e ra
Le c t u r e s e r i es :
Conceptual Design of subsonic commercial
aircraft
davide.ferretto@polito.it
1.5
Guess data estimation
for subsonic
c o m m e r c i a l a i r c ra f t
ASSIGNMENT
Synthesis Sizing
2.1
Guess data estimation
for subsonic
Sketch
c o m m e r c i a l a i r c ra f t
For conventional
configurations, methods for
Guess Data Estimation are
usually based on statistical
analysis. Error margins shall
be duly considered.
𝑝ෝ𝑖 𝑝𝑖
known
• Payload mass: mass associated to passengers, their luggage and the entire cargo contribution (if
applicable). It varies depending on the mission the aircraft shall fly.
• Zero Fuel Mass (ZFM): aircraft mass taking into account OEM and payload, without fuel (OEM +
payload = ZFM).
• Maximum Zero Fuel Mass (MZFM): maximum allowable mass for the aircraft before adding fuel
(fueling)
Design Take-off mass can be broken into different contributions including, crew,
payload, structures, subsystems, etc…
?
2.1 (Known from Requirements, (Known from Requirements, ?
including regulations) including applicable regulations)
Guess data estimation Pilots and all crew members Passengers and related
equipment
for subsonic
c o m m e r c i a l a i r c ra f t
This can be rewritten as follows:
𝑚𝑓𝑢𝑒𝑙 𝑚𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑦
𝑚 𝑇𝑂 = 𝑚𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑤 + 𝑚𝑝𝑎𝑦𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑑 + 𝒎𝑻𝑶 + 𝒎𝑻𝑶
𝒎𝑻𝑶 𝒎𝑻𝑶
? ?
[1] Raymer, Daniel. Aircraft design: a conceptual approach. American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc., 2012.
2.1
Guess data estimation
for subsonic
c o m m e r c i a l a i r c ra f t
o Each curve can be represented by a power equation based upon take-off gross mass.
o The small but negative exponents indicate that the empty-mass fractions decrease with increasing take-off
mass.
o The adoption of advanced technologies (such as composite materials), may be considered with additional
factors (< 1)
2.1
Guess data estimation
for subsonic
c o m m e r c i a l a i r c ra f t
For the definition of a Mission Profile for commercial aircraft, various simplified models
can be found out in literature. However, for a more precise estimate, real mission profiles
of reference aircraft can be used and discretized.
2.1
Guess data estimation
for subsonic
c o m m e r c i a l a i r c ra f t
𝑛
2.1 • where n is the number of mission phases (or legs)
𝑚𝑓𝑢𝑒𝑙 = 𝑚𝑓𝑢𝑒𝑙 = 𝑘𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤 (𝑚 𝑇𝑂 − 𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑑 𝑛 ) • 𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑑 𝑖 is the aircraft mass at the end of i-th phase
Guess data estimation 𝑖 • 𝑘𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤 is a factor accounting for allowances
𝑖=1
for subsonic
c o m m e r c i a l a i r c ra f t
𝑚𝑓𝑢𝑒𝑙 𝑘𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤 (𝑚 𝑇𝑂 − 𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑑 𝑛 ) 𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒅 𝒏
= = 𝑘𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤 1 −
𝑚 𝑇𝑂 𝑚 𝑇𝑂 𝒎𝑻𝑶
Fuel fractions can be statistically estimated for all phases except for cruise phase.
In cruise phase, a more accurate estimation is requested.
The range of an aircraft is its velocity multiplied by the amount of time it can remain in the air.
Time in the air equals the amount of fuel carried divided by the rate at which the fuel is burnt.
Mass flow rate of fuel is, in turn, the required thrust multiplied by the specific fuel consumption.
2.1
Guess data estimation
for subsonic 𝐿
c o m m e r c i a l a i r c ra f t Additional distance the aircraft 𝑑𝑅 𝑉 𝑉 𝑉 𝐷
will travel with a certain = = =
increment in fuel burnt 𝑑𝑚 −𝑠𝑓𝑐 𝑇 −𝑠𝑓𝑐 𝐷 −𝑠𝑓𝑐 𝑚
𝐿
𝑤𝑓 𝑉 𝐷
𝑅=න 𝑑𝑚
𝑤𝑖 −𝑠𝑓𝑐 𝑚
𝑉 𝐿 𝑚𝑖
𝑅= ln
𝑠𝑓𝑐 𝐷 𝑚𝑓
From Raymer
𝑅 𝑠𝑓𝑐
− 𝐿 Range (R) and speed
𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑑 3
3 Cruise = 𝑒
𝑉
𝐷 (V) are known
𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑑2
Descent
4
𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑑 4
= 0.985 [1]
2.1 2 𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑑3
[1] Raymer, Daniel. Aircraft design: a conceptual approach. American Institute of Aeronautics and
Astronautics, Inc., 2012.
2.1 𝑘𝑔Τℎ
𝑙𝑏Τℎ 𝑘𝑔Τℎ
Guess data estimation
𝑆𝐹𝐶𝑖𝑚𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑆𝐹𝐶𝑆𝐼1 ≈ 𝑆𝐹𝐶𝑆𝐼1′ 𝑑𝑎𝑁
𝑙𝑏𝑓 𝑘𝑔𝑓
for subsonic
c o m m e r c i a l a i r c ra f t
Example
𝑚𝑔Τ𝑠
𝑆𝐹𝐶𝑅𝑎𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑆𝐼 = 14.1 𝑁
𝑆𝐹𝐶𝑅𝑎𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑆𝐼 𝑘𝑔Τ𝑠
𝑆𝐹𝐶𝑘𝑔−𝑠−𝑁 = = 1.41 ∙ 10−5
106 𝑁
𝑘𝑔Τℎ
𝑆𝐹𝐶𝑘𝑔−ℎ−𝑁 = 3600 ∙ 𝑆𝐹𝐶𝑘𝑔−𝑠−𝑁 = 0.051 𝑁
𝑘𝑔Τℎ
𝑆𝐹𝐶𝑘𝑔−ℎ−𝑑𝑎𝑁 ≅ 10 ∙ 𝑆𝐹𝐶𝑘𝑔−ℎ−𝑁 = 0.51 𝑑𝑎𝑁
Lesson 2: First guess and preliminary estimations (D. Ferretto)
Guess Data Estimation: Maximum L/D
𝑅 𝑠𝑓𝑐
𝑚𝑓𝑢𝑒𝑙 − 𝐿
Cruise 3 𝑉
= 𝑒 𝐷
𝑚𝑓𝑢𝑒𝑙2
𝐿
= 𝑘𝐿𝐷 𝐴𝑤
2.1 𝐷 𝑚𝑎𝑥
Guess data estimation
for subsonic
c o m m e r c i a l a i r c ra f t Where
A
• 𝐴𝑤 = 𝑆𝑤𝑒𝑡
𝑆𝑟𝑒𝑓
2.1
Guess data estimation • Typical ratios from literature
for subsonic
c o m m e r c i a l a i r c ra f t • Measures from aircraft sketch
Set W0 guess
me/mT0
(mTO)
Crew members
Select payload and m_crew
number
cruise range m_payload
(2 pilots +?)
2.1
Guess data estimation
for subsonic Define mission
c o m m e r c i a l a i r c ra f t profile
Set configuration
data mf/mT0
(e.g. aspect ratio)
What to expect?
𝑚𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑤 + 𝑚𝑝𝑎𝑦𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑑
𝑚 𝑇𝑂 = 𝑚𝑓𝑢𝑒𝑙 𝑚𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑦
1− −
𝑚 𝑇𝑂 𝑚 𝑇𝑂
2.1 Estimated
mTO = mTO
Graphical
approach
mTO [kg]
Some references:
Interpolation of data with Matlab
(https://www.mathworks.com/help/matla
b/data_analysis/programmatic-
Discussion: fitting.html#f1-7407 )
Estimation
&
Procedure
Statistical
Analysis
𝑚𝑒
Example with reference to = 𝐴 𝑚𝐶𝑇0
𝑚𝑇0
Discussion:
From data
Equation “shape” or type
Preliminary
Guess Data
Estimation Suggested
& coefficients
Statistical
Analysis
𝑚𝑒
Example with reference to = 𝐴 𝑚𝐶𝑇0
𝑚𝑇0
Discussion:
Preliminary
Guess Data 𝑦 = 131.8 𝑥 −0.44
Estimation Warning!
This is just an
& example!
Statistical
Analysis
𝑦 = 0.97 𝑥 −0.66
Preliminary
Guess Data
Estimation 𝑚𝑓𝑢𝑒𝑙 𝑚𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑦
1− − >0
&
𝑚 𝑇𝑂 𝑚 𝑇𝑂
estimated
Not consistent? 𝑚𝑓𝑢𝑒𝑙 𝑚𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑦
+ <1
Statistical 𝑚 𝑇𝑂 𝑚 𝑇𝑂
Discussion:
Preliminary
Guess Data
Estimation
&
Statistical By considering either range or payload as a free parameter, it is
possible to perform trade studies.
Analysis
In this case, different curves can be drawn and different
convergence points can be identified.
[1] Raymer, Daniel. Aircraft design: a conceptual approach. American Institute of Aeronautics and
Astronautics, Inc., 2012.
𝑉𝑑𝑊 𝑐𝐿
𝑑𝑠 = − ∙
𝑠𝑓𝑐 ∙ 𝑔 ∙ 𝑊 𝑐𝐷
𝑠2
𝑉 𝑐𝐿 𝑊1 𝑑𝑊 𝑽 𝒄𝑳 𝑾𝟏
න 𝑑𝑠 = ∙ න 𝑹𝒂𝒏𝒈𝒆 = 𝒔𝟐 − 𝒔𝟏 = ∙ ∙ 𝐥𝐧
𝑠1 𝑠𝑓𝑐 ∙ 𝑔 𝑐𝐷 𝑊2 𝑊 𝒔𝒇𝒄 ∙ 𝒈 𝒄𝑫 𝑾𝟐