Business Plan - USD/000 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

ActualBusiness PlanBusiness PlanBusiness PlanBusiness PlanBusiness Plan

Revenues from recurring operations 23,861 45,349 75,081 85,178 99,820 115,220
Cost of Goods sold -17,361 -20,621 -32,970 -47,672 -55,994 -62,238
Gross Profit 6,500 24,728 42,111 37,506 43,826 52,982
Gross Profit Margin % 27.2 % 54.5 % 56.1 % 44.0 % 43.9 % 46.0 %
Marketing and Sales -2,134 -2,357 -3,768 -5,456 -6,464 -7,216
General & Administrative -1,586 -2,135 -3,510 -5,320 -6,680 -7,220
Other revenues / costs 664 733 754 1,091 1,293 1,443
EBITDA 3,444 20,969 35,587 27,821 31,974 39,989
EBITDA Margin % 14.4 % 46.2 % 47.4 % 32.7 % 32.0 % 34.7 %
Depreciation 600 2,052 3,713 4,852 5,792 5,562
EBIT 2,844 18,917 31,874 22,969 26,182 34,427
EBIT Margin % 11.9 % 41.7 % 42.5 % 27.0 % 26.2 % 29.9 %
Net Interest Expenses -264 -759 -1,186 -1,168 -1,191 -996
EBT 2,579 18,157 30,687 21,801 24,991 33,431
Taxes -696 -4,903 -8,286 -5,886 -6,748 -9,026
Net Income 1,883 13,255 22,402 15,915 18,244 24,405

Tax rate 27%

Capex - USD/000 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026
Capex related to the business 2,900 7,000 8,070 5,545 4,500 1,500
Other long term Capex 200 520 470 300 400 500
Total Capex 3,100 7,520 8,540 5,845 4,900 2,000

Years of life Capex related to the business 5

Years of life Other long term Capex 10

Depreciation - USD/000 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026

Depreciation of Capex related to the business 580 1,980 3,594 4,703 5,603 5,323
Depreciation of Other long term Capex 20 72 119 149 189 239
Total Depreciation 600 2,052 3,713 4,852 5,792 5,562
2,027
2,000
600
2,600

Per la depreciation si calcola la quota annuale di

ammortamento relativa al capex relativo e si
2,027 aggiungono quelle degli anni precedenti. Ogni anno
4,323 4,323 quindi ci sarà il deprezzamento pari alla quota dell
299 anno in corso piu quella dell anno precedente che
4,622 considera quella delgi anni precedenti

L'ultimo anno si aggiunge l ammortamento del primo

anno. Questo perchè sommando quello precedente
abbiamo gia la somma degli ammortamenti dal
secondo in poi ed è proprio la quota di ammortamento
del capex del secondo anno ad dover essere tolta
perchè finiti i 5 anni. Sottrendo però per la
depreciation di quell anno stiamo sottraendo di nuovo
anche quella del primo anno , dunque dobbiamo
sommarla
Balance Sheet - USD/000 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026
Fixed Assets 4,232 9,700 14,527 15,520 14,628 11,066
Account Receivables 12,167 15,803 23,578 24,819 28,691 30,378
Inventory 6,238 7,059 10,130 10,536 13,176 21,300
Account Payables -7,521 -10,991 -15,708 -16,628 -19,825 -21,811
Net Working Capital 10,884 11,871 18,000 18,727 22,043 29,867
Provisions for risks -1,622 -1,622 -1,622 -1,622 -1,622 -1,622
Pension provisions -3,577 -3,577 -3,577 -3,577 -3,577 -3,577
Net Invested Capital 9,917 16,372 27,328 29,048 31,472 35,734

Equity 8,770 22,025 44,427 60,341 78,585 102,990

Net Financial Position 1,147 -5,653 -17,099 -31,293 -47,113 -67,255

Check - - - - - -
Currency - USD/000 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025
EBIT 2,844 18,917 31,874 22,969 26,182
Taxes (figurative) -768 -5,108 -8,606 -6,202 -7,069
NOPAT 2,076 13,809 23,268 16,768 19,113
Depreciation 600 2,052 3,713 4,852 5,792
Cash Flow 2,676 15,861 26,981 21,620 24,905
△ Net Working Capital 987 6129 727 3316
Delta provisions and other liab.
Capex 7,520 8,540 5,845 4,900
Free Cash Flow 7,354 12,312 15,048 16,690
6/30/2022 6/30/2023 6/30/2024 6/30/2025
Time 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5
Discount Factor 0.98 0.93 0.89 0.85

Discounted Free Cash Flow 7,189 11,502 13,434 14,239

Cumulated Discounted FCF 63,380 Gordon Growth Model

Terminal Value 970,630
Discounted Terminal Value 791,398 TV = "FCF ultimo anno stimato * (1+g) "
/((𝑊𝐴𝐶𝐶−𝑔))
Value (valuation as of 31/12/2021)
Enterprise Value 854,778 NPV OF TV =
Net Financial Position 1,147 𝑇𝑉/ 〖 (1+𝑊𝐴𝐶𝐶) 〗
Equity Value 853,631
^𝑛
WACC 4.64%
g 2.00%
Tax rate 27%

Sensitivity Analysis: WACC and g

Equity Value WACC

853,631 3.89% 3.89% Err:522
Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
g Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522

Sensitivity rate 0.50%

Min
Mid
Max
 2,026 Norm 2026
34,427 34,427
-9,295 -9,295 non si sottraggono le
25,132 25,132 tasse prese dall'income
5,562 5,562 statement
30,694 30,694
7825 -
-
2,000 5,562
20,869 25,132 I cash flow sono calcolati semestralmente ,
6/30/2026 quindi ogni semestre di calcola il valore del
4.5 cash flow. Quando si attualizza all anno
0.82 corrente 2021 si considera quanti anni sono
passati meno un semestre perchè la
17,015 valutazione viene fatta a giugno e non a
dicembre

mo anno stimato * (1+g) " COMPUTE THE TERMIONAL VALUE

For the DCF method, the NORMALIZATION is needed when

computing the Terminal Value:

𝑊𝐴𝐶𝐶) 〗 1) EBIT equal to the last year business plan;

n= orizzionte temporale di previsione 2) Depreciation equal to the last year business plan;
3)Delta NWC and Delta provisions and other liabilities=0
4) Capex equal to Depreciation.

The Normalized FCF of year 2026 should be used for

computing the FCF of year 2026 needed for Terminal Value
estimation.

WACC
Err:522 Err:522 Assumption:
Err:522 Err:522
Err:522 Err:522 Growth rate of revenues = long term growth rate
Err:522 Err:522 of GDP
Err:522 Err:522 (can be sometime is used also the inflation rate)
Err:522 Err:522
 almente ,
valore del
l anno
anni sono
è la
non a

ATION is needed when

s plan;
business plan;
d other liabilities=0

ould be used for

ded for Terminal Value

erm growth rate

he inflation rate)
Company Levered beta D/E ratio Tax rate
Comparable 1 0.26 0.14 30.00%
Comparable 2 0.95 0.01 40.69%
Comparable 3 0.80 0.08 25.00%
Comparable 4 0.82 0.15 25.00%
Comparable 5 1.14 0.46 28.00%

Average 0.17

BetaLTeta=BetaU*(1+D/E*(1-t))
Unlevered beta
0.24
0.95
0.76
0.74
0.86

0.71
 Interest Coverage
Rating Spread
ratio
More than 12,5 AAA 0.75%
9,5-12,5 AA 1.00%
7,5-9,5 A+ 1.50%
6,0-7,5 A 1.80%
4,5-6,0 A- 2.00%
3,5-4,5 BBB 2.25%
3,0-3,5 BB 3.50%
2,5-3,0 B+ 4.75%
2,0-2,5 B 6.50%
1,5-2,0 B- 8.00%
1,25-1,5 CCC 10.00%
0,8-1,25 CC 11.50%
0,5-0,8 C 12.70%
Less than 0,5 D 14.00%
Source: Compustat

Cost of debt
as of 31/12/2021
EBIT 2,844
Net Interest Expenses (264)
ICR 10.8
 WACC Source
Risk free rate 1.72% 10-Year Government Bond Yield (USA) - e.g. https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/da
Beta Unlevered 0.71 As estimated by Panel of comparables (average industry Beta)
D/E 0.17 As estimated by Panel of comparables (average industry D/E)
Beta Relevered 0.79
Tax rate 27.00%
Market Risk Premium 4.24% Damodaran: "Country Default Spreads and Risk Premiums" - http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~a
Specific Risk
Ke 5.09%

Kd 2.72%
Tax rate 27.00%

Kd (net of tax shield 1.99%

E/(D+E) 85.67% WE KNOW THAT E+D = 100%

D/(D+E) 14.33%
D/E è la percentuale di capitale di d
WACC 4.6410158% capitale di rischio. Se divisa per la p
di capitale totale su qullo di rischio s
percentuale di capitale di debito su
totale
ww.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/textview.aspx?data=yield

ums" - http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/ - Data --> Current Data --> Risk/Discount Rate --> Discount Rate Estimation --> Risk Premiums for Othe

NOW THAT E+D = 100%

la percentuale di capitale di debito sul

e di rischio. Se divisa per la percentuale
tale totale su qullo di rischio si ottiene la
ntuale di capitale di debito su quello
Estimation --> Risk Premiums for Other Markets --> Download relativo all anno in cui si valuta

market risk premium =

market return - risk free
 Enterprise
Company NFP Market Cap Sales 2022 EBITDA 2022
Value
Comparable 1 - 1,624 12,344 10,720 4,827 3,069
Comparable 2 6,736 121,910 128,646 15,306 4,592
Comparable 3 326 18,120 18,446 2,648 1,533
Comparable 4 5,900 143,452 149,352 16,016 4,252
Comparable 5 130 10,486 10,616 633 259
 EBIT 2022 EV / Sales EV /EBITDA EV /EBIT

2,916 2.2x 3.5x 3.7x

4,362 8.4x 28.0x 29.5x
1,457 7.0x 12.0x 12.7x
4,039 9.3x 35.1x 37.0x
246 16.8x 41.0x 43.1x

AVG Multiple 8.7x 23.9x 25.2x

Sale EBITDA EBIT
Target
23,861 3,444 2,844
Parameters

EV Target 208,485 82,407 71,631

NFP Target 1,147 1,147 1,147

Equity Value
207,338 81,260 70,483
Valuation Method Kind of Valuation Enterprise Value
Absolute valuation (based on
Discounted Cash Flow fundamentals of the target 854,778
company)
Relative valuation (based on
EV / Sales 208,485
comparable firms)
Relative valuation (based on
EV / EBITDA 82,407
comparable firms)
Relative valuation (based on
EV / EBIT 71,631
comparable firms)

Average 304,325
Min 71,631
Max 854,778

Discounted Cash Flow generally represents the primary method of valuation

Multiples approach is usually applied as a control method, aiming to assess the DCF valuation
 Equity Value

853,631

207,338

81,260

70,483

303,178
70,483
853,631

of valuation
g to assess the DCF valuation