December 30, 2007 FROM: MARK PENN SUBJECT: NEW HAMPSHIRE STRATEGY Overview Summary: Unless we win lowa outright, we will be locked in a pitch battle with Edwards or Obama or possibly both in NH. Against Obama we would almost certainly have ht negative exposing his record of hypocrisy and highlight that in the debate. Against Edwards, we have to block his message of unbridled populism, at a minimum by underscoring our commitment to curbing the drug companies, oil companies and WallStreet against a record that is literaly all talk. And possibly question his own commitment to this fight given his work with a hedge fund that foreclosed homes in New Orleans. Given the possibility of an Edwards surge, we should be doing what we can to Position her as a doer against the special interests in line with her true record. From a media advertising point of view, we have one bolt of lightning to throw. Let's get a 2 minute positive night before if we can. But we would have one spot, and one debate. 3 ‘message days and a press that likes to cover the process and not the substance of what Hillary Clinton says and does. We also have the Sunday shows and 60 Minutes as options over the weekend. So do our opponents. Overall recommendation: if we win, say we won, get the momentum going, drive the pick a res message and get ready to defend against potential attacks. If Obama wins, go negative right at him. If Edwards wins, go comparative on her record vs. him on standing up for what you believe in. Our response to Edwards on lobbyists if that we will go right at the special interests — competition for Medicare, $16 billion from oil co profits for strat energy fund and end Wall Street tax breaks while balancing the budget. But what is Edwards’ record really? After all those “mistakes” in the Senate, he worked for the Hedge Funds and Wall Street he now decries. Discussion Coming out of lowa, we only have five days — a very limited amount of time — to communicate ‘our home-stretch message and change the minds of key voters. In 2004, momentum was a Powerful force. In 2000 it meant nothing for Gore. Based on recent history and the current coverage, i's unlikely the press will present this as a ‘win" for us unless we land a decisive victory. In all likelihood, the results will be close and the ‘media will spin this as a two or three-way toss-up, with either BHO or JRE having momentum into New Hampshire and HRC as potentially vulnerable. So, the key for us will be to come out of lowa knowing our strategy and pivot into New Hamphsire with whether we are simply pressing our case with a strengthened hand, or setting a Contrast or negative message to take down an opponent. We want all the fun and excitement of the last § days campaigning crisscrossing the state and building momentum Our core message remains strength and experience to bring the change we need — HRC is ready on day one to tackle the big challenges waiting for the next President with real solutions. We are not the status quo candidate — been a change maker all her life and she will start making change day1. The Concord Monitor can be used as the same kind oflity builder as the Des Moines Register to throw off the character attacks that they dismissed as 90s talking points and press our case forward. Against Obama, our message has been one of readiness on foreign policy and national security, ‘Against Edwards we would have to press our advantages on being able to manage the economy, Obama's voters were drawn to him as fresh and new while Edwards's support is drawn from his Populist economics, and he would also pick up some momentum voters if he did well in lowa, He is an angry version of people vs. the powerful There are some important differences between lowa and NH - the independent voters here have often supported the outsider candidates. Even after winning lowa 2-1, Gore beat Bradley by only 4 points here, and McCain trounced Bush by 19 points, Fresh ideas and straight talk have boon drivers ofthis primary, and independent voters, who have been growing in New Hampshire, can dominate it 'F lowra is the play-nice primary, New Hampshire is the play-rough primary. Contrast campaigns have often succeeded in New Hampshire primary polities and, more importanty, they have dramatically reversed dificult spots. There are two classic forms ofthe contrast campaign in New Hampshire primary polit. In scenario one, the insurgent candidate with fresh ideas, attacks the entrenched establishment candidate (Reagan 1960, Hart 1984, Forbes 1996, McCain 2000). This is akin to the campaigns Obama and Edwards have been running against us. In scenario two, the frontrunner, establishment campaign attacks the insurgent candidate as hypocritical and wrong on key issues (Carter 1976, Bush 1992, Gore 2000), ‘Some recent examples of the two contrast scenarios: * In.2000, Gore came into NH with a 27-point win in IA, but the press demanded a race. Bradley attempted the “fresh ideas" framing, attempting to pin Gore as the “establishment” candidate. Gore largely ignored the attacks after having fought back in lowa; the result. 50-46 on primary night. With five weeks until Super Tuesday, however, Gore used his money advantage to hammer home the message that he would fight for the people while Bradley would not. His campaign also attacked Bradley for being out-of-touch on key policy issues like health care. ‘+ In 1992, Bush finished third in lowa and limped into NH. Facing a second NH loss, he ran a last-minute anti-Dole “Senator Stradale” ad, again undermining the “fresh ideas,” insurgent candidate on the issues. Dole was suddenly unreliable on the key tax issue Bush won by points, demolished the insurgent, and went on to the nomination. * In 1984, Mondale was leading Hart by 50 percent going into New Hampshire, but failed to address Hart's “new ideas’ frame vs. Mondale as the “failed ideas of the past." The result was a virtual tie ~ a huge comeback --, broken only after NH with Mondale's "Where's the Beef’ attack. Mondale effectively undermined the “fresh ideas" candidate, * In 1980, Reagan ran against Bush as the “new ideas’ candidate. But Bush won big in 1A, Claiming the momentum mantle. In New Hampshire, however, Reagan pinned Bush as the “establishment’ candidate and rode that frame to vietory. Given this anti-establishment bent, itis not surprising that the “change” ad was the best- testing ad in New Hampshire in recent ad tests, To win in NH, we have to convince people that Hillary does not just have the experience, but she is the “new beginning” candidate they have been looking for. That she Is just aeTauch as new ideas candidate as anyone, and much more of the president they are looking for. This is really what got us the endorsements in lowa and then the Concord Monitor — they said all of the candidates sho really was the one who can make all of the change that ail of the candidates are talking about a reality. This is the edge we have that links a) the Job the next president has to do with b) her fighting for change all her life and c) her ‘experience. When voters are focused on who is the most ready and qualified to be president, the answer Hillary by 88/12/18, far higher than in lowa. So they agree with the premise even more than in lowa, but it has less effect unless we tie it to making the changes they want. Experienced leadership to start change on Day 1 vs. inexperienced leadership that is all talk. Edwards may pick up some momentum from lowa, but he is not seriously regarded by the press as a real alternative; they see him as a phony, with a case that is tailored to win, but. that is not real. He will have an advantage in the Saturday debate if he is unchallenged because he will be Mr. Populist Message machine. We will have to dispute that message. Obviously if we have the momentum, then we are all positive. If itis a three-way mudd, then we can probably win on the basic message — we have more latent support there, bat Wwe will have to defend against Edwards taking away our Democratic downscale working class support. And if itis a two-way race against one of them with us coming from behind, we have to be ready to contrast and defend our turf vigorously in a short period of time with a contrast message based on the research below. 10 Days to go, the Race in New Hampshire is Clo: The 8-way ballot is +2 overall, +3 with absolutely certain Dem primary voters, With Democrats we are +14, With Independents we are -14 and to the degree there has been movement in the race in the past month, it has mostly been Independent men moving to Obama ~ he has gained 17 points with them. There has been no real change with Democrats. [ Showing HRC/obamma/Eawards | De26z7” | Woy] All 31/29/19 [31/22/13 Absolutely Certain 33/3016 | 32/22/13 Dem 38724719 | 362013 Party [ind 21/38/19 | 23/23/14 = Men [32n2ai [272n3_| Women 412607 | A193 Men 127a2iis Indy fomen 283020 The Indy Question + Anger at Bush and frustration with the GOP is driving Independents to the Democratic Brimary as is the sense the Democratic field is more exciting and interesting this cycle, * But, the percentage of Independents who say they will vote in the Democratic primary is decreasing as the media coverage of the GOP race has increased, © 41% of Republicans now say they are definitely or very likely going to vote in the Democratic primary, down 11 points from December 13" * Independents, especially men, in NH view the election through mostly a fiscal lens ~ they are very negative about the direction of the country and very concerned about the