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FRoM \e TEU PECORD MGMT B DIGITAL LIB FAK NO, 1 439 458 1472 Sep. 26 200d 10:5BAN F2/9 Ht or ARL ROVE+COMPANY oe Direct stan ai, sas w sik MERO 70: Governor William P, Clements, Jr. Porliceang FROM: Karl Rove sna Rl The Next 39-68 Days Because Loeffler's recent announcement an@ Hance's impending 21- media market declaration will nacessarily require your campaign to step up its activities, here are some thoughts about how your campaign should been seen by the press, Republican activists and voters in the next 36 to 60 days. It's important to etart with a clear understanding of whero we are today. Strengths 1. ¥ou are well-known with high name id, 2. The perceptions are that you were s good Governor who did the right things and provided strong leadership. 3. There is a general expectation that you will win the Republican Primary, becouse of your position as the “psuedo-incumbent" in the race and because of your ability to raise money, These factors, for example, have given Phil Gramm second thoughts about getting too visible in the race. 4. Your personal circumstances give you more time than Loeffler te devote to the campaign and perhaps’ as much or more time as Hance. weaknesses Despite these strengths and your commanding lead in the polls right now, you can lose the Republican Primary or emerge from it victorious, but bloody and severely wounded. Hance will have in excess of $2.5 million for his primary campaign, Loeffler may raise in excess of §2 million. Both are attractive, young candidates. Hance is o better speaker than you. Wis principal weakness on the stump is his unfamiliarity with state government issues. That will change. Loeffler, too, can hold his own in small gatherings. THUG OM : TAMU RECORD MGMT & DIGITAL LIB FAX NO, i 493 458 1472 itil 2004 18:SaRH Pa Both have the advantage of being relatively unknown among most Ropublican activists, The party officials and activists are always looking to the future, not the past. They know you and know we were defeated in 1982, Each of them has e laundry lise why. ‘They never hope for change: they also hope for a knight on a white horse whe will sweep them to victory, They see the warts of the one they know and overlook the blemishes of the one that's fresh and new. Here ave your weaknesses that make this a potentially explosive situation, 1. There is little enthusiasm among activists, TERW, elected officials, donors and GOP voters for your candidacy and’ outright heetility among SREC and party officials, Even among many of your former supporters and major donors, the attitude is one of resignation, of acceptance, but not enthusiasm. the gn the street i. ou, but that support wilh be worn down unless something changes the climate of opinion among the one group of party leaders who were for you in 1978 -- the grass roots shock troops who run the precincts, man the phones, attend the meetings and stuff the envelopes. 2. The general expectation that you will win means that weakness will be magnified. If you fail to achiove those standards which others expect you to reach -- quality of message, depth of volunteer organization, active presence, money =- then the inflated belief that the primary is yours for the asking will rapidly turn around and your campaign will collapse quickly. 3, Your loss in 1982 is credited, in part, to the perception that voters saw you as arrogant. Among the politicos, there is a belief you won't listen, shoot from the hip, and can bé mean and insensitive, 4. The press corps has a stercotype of you that is similar. This emphasis on the arrogant and uniistening Bill Clements will be reflected in their reporting. The press will be prone te treat this campaign as a horserace or gladiator contest, First, you will mix it up with your primary opponents and Phil Gramm for the control of the GOP, Then, fox mean and revenge-inspired reasons, you will pit yourself against Mark White im an effort to wash away the blemish of your 1982 defeat, Bill Clements: the man who could never stand to lose at anything. ALL these will conspire to make you the issue in the Republican TEHRAN FROM TRU RECORD MGMT 2 DIGITAL LIB FAX NO. : 429 45a 1272 Primary. and because you are the issue, it is within your power to detexmine how that issue develops, “The whole art of war consists in a well-reasoned and extrencty circunspect defensive, foliesed by vapia a audiclous attack" Napoleon 1f your defense is well-built, there may be no need for attack in the primary and it may make your attacks on Mark White more effective, The beat defense defuses the issue of Bill Clements. It is: 1) My record is a real asset to winning this election and 2) we'll fix the mistakes that made us lose in 1982, Your message is all important, You must emphasize those things that you did that people know in their hearts were good for Texas and you must be crystai clear that you understand why we lost. You don't have to convince most primary voters: you only have to reassure them about your. record and surprise them by dealing with what they percieve were the mistakes. bat's take the’ two components of your message. Firat, the record. One of the 1982 campaign's greatest weaknesses was our failure to research, distill and communicate your record, Our research operation wes @ disaster until Rich Thomas came aboard in late summer, but by then, the damage had been dono. It is easier to attack than to explain your own record and all af us in the campaign had fallen into the trap of attacking. It is ironic because your record is so outetanding. For 1986, these are the most important elements, 2) No new taxes 2) Cut out waste and inefficiency in state spending to hold the line on the budget 3) Tough new measures to crack down on crime and drugs ANON OTLNYIL Nd6S*UL 7002 TUN