From: Harold Ickes {mailto:hickes@hillaryclinton.com) ‘Sent: Monday, February 04, 2008 1:53 AM To: Guy Cecil; Harold Ickes; Harold Ickes2; Howard Wolfson; Lisa DiBartolomeo; Maggie Williams; Maggie Williams; Mandy Grunwald; Mark J. Penn; Mike Henry; Neera Tanden; Patti Solis Doyle ‘Subject: FW: convention projections The purpose of the attached memo is to provide a framework for post 6 February in terms of delegate count outcome. Given the lack of polling information, for post § Feb states, these projections are based on bets estimates. In addition, this is a static “analysis’ which does not ‘account for the dynamics of other aspects of the campaign, particularly momentum. Finally, once Guy applies NCEC and other data to each state and CD, the projected results may change substantially By the end of the day this coming Tuesday, we undoubtedly will have much more information to revise these projections. ‘Assuming HRC’s lead in super delegates holds and continue to increase even slowly, she will ing she i she can continue to lead BO in total delegates at every step. We are in for a real fight, but assur at least achieves the projections for Tuesday and given some breaks. itis a fight th win, LButit will be a fight. Harold & Lisa From Uke Dsriiomeo Sent: Monday, Febuary 04, 2008 1:12 &M Tor Haro Ickes Subject: convention projectons <> Contributions to Hillary Clinton for President are not deductible for federal income tax purposes. Paid for by Hillary Clinton for PresidentRevised 3 February 2008 Delegate projection to the convention Harold and Lisa did a first draft projection of pledged delegates through Puerto Rico, the last jurisdiction to hold its process. Since we have litle polling for the post 5 February states coming up this week and next, much less for those beyond, our projections are based only on our best estimates, taking into account certain demographic information. We will know a lot more on Tuesday The percentages applied statewide for HRC & BO are also applied to each CD: except where the CD has a particularly high African American or Hispanic voting concentration, we adjusted the percentage of the vote for HRC & BO by giving more to her for higher Hispanic and likewise for him to reflect higher African American voting concentration. NCEC and other data applied by Guy may well result in different projections. For every state and every CD we assume that HRC & BO split 94% of the vote, with an aggregate of 626 of the vote going to other candidates on the ballot or uncommitted. Finally, as we have discussed, proportional representation cushions on the down side and limits the upside and affects even number delegate districts differently than odd number delegate districts Example 6 delegate district: '* BO 40%; HRC 54%, the delegates are split evenly, 3 for each For HRC to get 4 out 6 delegates, she must get 55% (driving BO to no more than 39% For HRC to get 5 out of 6 delegates, she must get 71% (driving BO to 23%). Example 5 delegate district: BO 47% and HRC 49% or above, she gets 3 of 5 delegates. For HRC to get 4 of 5, she must hit 66% (driving BO to 28%. 4,049 total delegate votes w/o FL & MI (4.415 delegate votes with FL & MI) 3.253 pledged delegate votes (3,566 pledged delegate votes with FL & MI 796 super delegate votes (849 super delegate votes with FL & Ml) 2,025 delegate votes to nominate w/o FL & MI (2,208 delegate votes to nominate with FL. & Ml) Projections: HRC BO © IA,NH, NV & SC (act.) 48 "63 (HRC-15) © 5 Feb (23 jurisdic) 815. 866_(HRC-SI) SUBTOTAL 863-929 © Wash = Dems Abroad (9 jurisdic) 148-212 (HRC -64) SUBTOTAL LOH 1141 © WIM, TX*, OH, RIL VT 207 (HRC +50) suB 1348 Rest of states (12 jurisdic) 300_(HRC +11) Total pledged delegate 1,579 1,648= 3,227 (HRC -69) Total super delegates to date 255 149 (HRC + 106) Total projected 1,834 1,797 = 3,631 (HRC +37) *Used the 33 CDs to make TX projections but will substitute the 32 Senate districts when the demographic information’s for them is available,Summa W/O FL& MI With FL & MI HRC: 1.834 (HRC =37) 2,023 (HRC +154) Bo: 1,797 1.869 JE: 26 39 Uncommitted 2 58 Subtotal 3.657 3.986 Uncomm Super 392 _429 TOTAL Delegate Votes 4,049 4 Florida HRC Pledged 105 BO Pledged 67 JEPledged 13 Supers 25 210 Michigan: HRC Pledged BO Pledg JE Pledged Uncommitted Supers 28 156 Conelusion: Based on the foregoing assumptions, in order for HRC to secure the 2,025 delegates votes currently needed to win the nomination, she would have to gain the support of at least 191 of the remaining 392 uncommitted super delegates, There are a total 796 so called super delegate votes, not including FL & MI, of which 404 are ‘committed ~ 255 to HRC and 149 to BO — leaving 392 uncommitted (123 congress: 173 DNC: 13, ‘governors, 7 distinguished party leaders, 76 unpledged add-ons to be elected in the spring). Convention projections, campaign, delegates