Mes Jugos Funcionales Te verde Ensalada Tropical

1 91 15 121 Asuma los valores de los

2 64 25 78 los pronósticos que deba
3 89 33 76 com
4 66 31 65
5 57 46 107
6 112 64 115
300
7 77 72 132
8 58 68 88 250
9 113 79 79
10 98 81 77 200
11 65 101 102

VENTAS
93 102 126 150
12
13 82 110 144
100
14 71 115 93
15 98 128 75 50
16 75 150 64
17 102 152 111 0
18 76 152 137 0 5 10 15
19 59 166 152 ME
20 122 169 108
21 88 172 96
22 104 180 87
23 73 201 124
24 52 199 143
25 111 211 162
26 90 219 110
27 75 227 98
28 110 235 88
29 85 243 132
30 121 250 154
TOTAL 2577 3996 3244

JUGOS FUNCIONALES - DEMANDA ESTACIONARIA

Jugos
Mes PSM N=2 PSM N= 4 SES 0,1 SES 0,3
Funcionales
1 91 91 86
2 64 91 139
3 89 78 88 200
4 66 77 88 287
5 57 78 78 86 392
6 112 62 69 83 527
 7 77 85 81 86 719
8 58 95 78 85 958
9 113 68 76 82 1,262
10 98 86 90 86 1,675
11 65 106 87 87 2,207
12 93 82 84 85 2,888
13 82 79 92 85 3,782
14 71 88 85 85 4,942
15 98 77 78 84 6,445
16 75 85 86 85 8,408
17 102 87 82 84 10,953
18 76 89 87 86 14,270
19 59 89 88 85 18,574
20 122 68 78 82 24,163
21 88 91 90 86 31,449
22 104 105 86 86 40,910
23 73 96 93 88 53,214
24 52 89 97 87 69,201
25 111 63 79 83 89,977
26 90 82 85 86 117,003
27 75 101 82 86 152,131
28 110 83 82 85 197,792
29 85 93 97 88 257,163
30 121 98 90 87 334,337
103 98 91 434,675

PSM (N) = 2
PSM 4
SES (Alfa) 0.1
0.3

TE VERDE - DEMANDA LINEAL CRECIENTE

Mes Te verde RL St Gt Ft
0 7.14 8.13
1 15 15.3 7.51 7.36 58.11
2 25 23.4 8.62 6.73 55.21
3 33 31.5 9.73 6.17 58.02
4 31 39.7 10.17 5.60 60.04
5 46 47.8 10.60 5.08 56.91
6 64 55.9 11.08 4.62 53.82
7 72 64.1 11.62 4.21 51.18
 8 68 72.2 12.21 3.85 48.94
9 79 80.3 12.85 3.53 47.01
10 81 88.5 13.53 3.24 45.34
11 101 96.6 14.24 2.99 43.88
12 102 104.7 14.99 2.77 42.60
13 110 112.9 15.77 2.57 41.47
14 115 121.0 16.57 2.39 40.48
15 128 129.1 17.39 2.23 39.61
16 150 137.3 18.23 2.09 38.85
17 152 145.4 19.09 1.97 38.20
18 152 153.5 19.97 1.86 37.65
19 166 161.7 20.86 1.76 37.19
20 169 169.8 21.76 1.68 36.82
21 172 177.9 22.68 1.60 36.54
22 180 186.1 23.60 1.53 36.33
23 201 194.2 24.53 1.47 36.21
24 199 202.3 25.47 1.42 36.17
25 211 210.5 26.42 1.37 36.19
26 219 218.6 27.37 1.33 36.28
27 227 226.7 28.33 1.29 36.44
28 235 234.9 29.29 1.26 36.66
29 243 243.0 30.26 1.23 36.93
30 250 251.1 31.23 1.21 37.26
31 259.3 #REF!
32 267.4 #REF!
33 275.5 #REF!
34 283.7 #REF!
35 291.8 #REF!
36 299.9 #REF!
37 308.1 #REF!

Regresion Pend (m) 8.13

Inter (b) 7.14

SED Alfa 0.2

Beta 0.1

ENSALADA TROPICAL - DEMANDA ESTACIONARIA

Suavisación Exponencial Triple
0.3 0.4 0.7
Ensalada
Mes At Tt St PT
Tropical
-3 1.42
 -2 0.92
-1 0.89
0 85 0 0.76
1 121 85.0 0.00 1.42 121.0
2 78 85.0 0.00 0.92 78.0
3 76 85.0 0.00 0.89 76.0
4 65 85.0 0.00 0.76 65.0
5 107 82.0 -1.18 1.34 113.9
6 115 94.2 4.15 1.13 94.0
7 132 113.1 10.07 1.08 97.7
8 88 120.8 9.09 0.74 76.2
9 79 108.6 0.58 0.91 101.8
10 77 96.9 -4.34 0.90 96.7
11 102 93.0 -4.16 1.09 110.7
12 126 113.3 5.63 1.00 97.2
13 144 130.6 10.32 1.04 112.5
14 93 129.8 5.87 0.77 92.7
15 75 115.6 -2.18 0.78 97.0
16 64 98.6 -8.11 0.75 88.9
17 111 95.2 -6.22 1.13 120.5
18 137 115.7 4.45 1.06 107.5
19 152 142.4 13.36 0.98 109.2
20 108 151.9 11.84 0.72 93.4
21 96 140.1 2.39 0.82 114.7
22 87 124.4 -4.87 0.81 111.3
23 124 121.5 -4.06 1.01 130.4
24 143 141.5 5.55 0.92 116.1
25 162 162.3 11.65 0.94 128.4
26 110 162.6 7.12 0.72 107.8
27 98 148.0 -1.59 0.77 119.2
28 88 131.0 -7.74 0.75 111.8
29 132 128.2 -5.75 1.00 139.3
30 154 150.3 5.37 0.93 124.9

Alfa 0.3
Beta 0.4
Gama 0.7
uma los valores de los parámetros para cada uno de
pronósticos que deba emplear es decir parámetros
como α,β,γ

Jugos Funcionales
Te verde
Ensalada Tropical

5 10 15 20 25 30 35
MES

140

120

100

80
AS
 140

120

100

80

VENTAS
60
Jugos Funcionales
40

20

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
PRONOSTICO

300

250

200
VENTAS

150

Te verde
100

50
 200

VENTAS
150

Te verde
100

50

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
PRONOSTICO

180

ERROR 160

140

120

100
S
 160

140

120

0.00 100

VENTAS
0.00
0.00 80
Ensalada Tropical
0.00
60
6.89
20.97
40
34.30
11.78 20
22.76
19.71 0
8.66 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
28.83 PRONOSTICO
31.51
0.35
21.98
24.87
9.52
29.49
42.80
14.60
18.66
24.26
6.39
26.86
33.64
2.17
21.16
23.81
7.28
29.12
 Ensalada Tropical

35