Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
• DISASTROUS FAILURES
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2005
https://www.slideshare.net/FrancoBontempi/robustezza-strutturale-113343022
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1
Can an airplane crash because it
DISASTROUS FAILURES punctured a tire?
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1. During takeoff from runway 26 right at Roissy
Charles de Gaulle Airport, shortly before
rotation, the front right tyre (tyre No 2) of the
left landing gear ran over a strip of metal, which
had fallen from another aircraft, and was
damaged.
2. Debris was thrown against the wing structure
leading to a rupture of tank 5.
3. A major fire, fuelled by the leak, broke out
almost immediately under the left wing.
4. Problems appeared shortly afterwards on engine
2 and for a brief period on engine 1.
5. The aircraft took off. The crew shut down engine
2, then only operating at near idle power,
following an engine fire alarm.
6. They noticed that the landing gear would not
retract.
7. The aircraft flew for around a minute at a speed
of 200 kt and at a radio altitude of 200 feet, but
was unable to gain height or speed. Engine 1
then lost thrust, the aircraftªs angle of attack
and bank increased sharply. The thrust on
engines 3 and 4 fell suddenly.
26/03/2022 Structural Robustness of Bridges and Viaducts 21 8. The aircraft crashed onto aStructural
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2
3
2
1
How will this bridge die?
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Es.: genetics
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alm%C3%B6_Bridge
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The Almö Bridge (inaugurated in 1960), that connected the island of
Tjörn (Sweden's 7th largest island) to the mainland. The bridge collapsed
January 18th 1980, when the bulk carrier MS Star Clipper struck the
bridge arch. Eight people died that night as they drove over the edge
until the road on the Tjörn side was closed 40 minutes after the
accident. A new cable-stayed bridge, Tjörn Bridge, was built and
inaugurated in 1981.
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3
Minnesota I-35W Bridge
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I-35W Bridge
Downtown
District
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Bridge Scheme (2)
The fixed bearing assemblies were located at piers 1, 3, 7, 9, 12, and 13.
Expansion (sliding) bearings were used at the south and north abutments and at piers 2,
4, 10, and 11.
Expansion Structural
roller bearings were used at piers 5, 6, and 8.
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+
The fixed bearing assemblies were located at piers 1, 3, 7, 9, 12, and 13.
Expansion (sliding) bearings were used at the south and north abutments and at piers 2,
4, 10, and 11.
ExpansionStructural
roller bearings were used at piers 5, 6, and 8.
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+ -
The fixed bearing assemblies were located at piers 1, 3, 7, 9, 12, and 13.
Expansion (sliding) bearings were used at the south and north abutments and at piers 2,
4, 10, and 11.
ExpansionStructural
roller bearings were used at piers 5, 6, and 8.
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Crossing the Threshold of Failure
Precise moment
3 of failure
Failure
level
2007
1998 modification
Original
design
Upper bound of load
Instantaneous load
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Dead Load of Original 1967 Bridge After 1977 and 1998 Modifications
Orange and red shading: Orange and red shading:
exceeds yield stress exceeds yield stress
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26/03/2022 GLDJRQDO Structural Robustness of Bridges and Viaducts
GLDJRQDO 67 26/03/2022 Structural Robustness of Bridges and Viaducts 68
5
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Failure Logic
HAZARD
HOLES DUE TO
ACTIVE ERRORS
E
NC
FE
DE
TH
EP
-D
IN
HOLES DUE TO
HIDDEN ERRORS
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NTSB
TT
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15/67
Sub-structured model
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Forensic Engineering
COSE – STRUTTURE - SISTEMI COSA
FORWARD THINGS – STRUCTURES - SYSTEMS WHAT
ANALYSIS
PERSONE – COMPORTAMENTI CHI
PEOPLE – HUMAN BEHAVIOR WHO
26/67
RESISTANCE OF FASTENERS
http://bridges.transportation.org/Documents/FHWA-IF-09
014LoadRatingGuidanceandExamplesforGussetsFebruary2009rev3.pdf
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After this tragedy, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) focused its attention on all the I-35W SAINT ANTHONY FALLS BRIDGE (September 2008)
465 steel deck truss bridges present in the National Bridge Inventory [NTSB, 2008].
There are 323 sensors that regularly measure bridge conditions
such as deck movement, stress, and temperature
“The term “fracture critical” indicates that if one main component of a bridge fails, the entire
structure could collapse. Therefore, a fracture critical bridge is a steel structure that is designed
with little or no load path redundancy. Load path redundancy is a characteristic of the design that
allows the bridge to redistribute load to other structural members on the bridge if any one member
loses capacity. “
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http://www.startribune.com/new-35w-bridge-already-is-
aging/268746561/
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4
Examples
Opening day was six years ago, and the I-35W bridge is needing repairs — some that come
from our harsh winters, but some from improper installations.
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Es.
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Es.
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https://californiawaterblog.com/2
016/05/01/the-collapse-of-water-
exports-los-angeles-1914/
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Es. Es.
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http://urbanplanet.info/architecture/par
is-air-terminal-collapse-report-france/
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Es.
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http://www.wise-uranium.org/img/stavaa.gif
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Seismic Action
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Structure / Infrastructure
Critical Node
Infrastructural
NET INFRASTRUCTURE System
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(0,62) (28.5,62)
(53,56)
(0,54)
(63,45)
(92,34)
(92,32)
(0,29)
(92,29)
(0,0) (92,0)
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Es.
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STRUCTURAL ROBUSTNESS
IN THE NARROW SENSE
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SAFETY Mean • It assures that the construction will perform its designed
Frequent function during reasonable use, for as long as its intended
life span.
NET Maximum • Items are constructed with structural integrity to prevent
Infrastructural INTEGRITY
Rare
catastrophic failure, which can result in injuries, severe
System damage, death, and/or monetary losses.
Accidental
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INTEGRITY
Damaged
a) some limited spatial spread of the ruptures Nominal it is a defect and represents a
Verification Format
Usual ULS & SLS
“IMPLOSION”
1st level: OF THE
Material STRUCTURE
Point
NO SWAY is a process in which
objects are destroyed by
collapsing on themselves
3rd level: 2nd level:
Structural Element
Element Section
“EXPLOSION”
OF THE
4th level:
SWAY STRUCTURE
Structural
Structural Robustness
System Assessment is a process
NOT CONFINED
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• Property of a structure relating to its ability to sustain • Ability of a computer, machine, electronic system or network
defects safely until repair can be effected. to maintain limited functionality even when a large portion
• The approach to engineering design to account for damage of it has been destroyed or rendered inoperative. The
tolerance is based on the assumption that flaws can exist in purpose of graceful degradation is to prevent catastrophic
any structure and such flaws propagate with usage. failure.
• In engineering, structure is considered to be damage tolerant • Ideally, even the simultaneous loss of multiple components
if a maintenance program has been implemented that will does not cause downtime in a system with this feature.
result in the detection and repair of accidental damage, • In graceful degradation, the operating efficiency or speed
corrosion and fatigue cracking before such damage reduces declines gradually as an increasing number of components
the residual strength of the structure below an acceptable fail.
limit.
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5
Design for Robustness
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Design Strategy #1: CONTINUITY Nipigon River Bridge
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Es.
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The collision of Esso Maracaibo
https://www.venezuelatu
ya.com/occidente/puente
rafaelurdanetaeng.htm
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http://www.aukevisser.nl/others/id1337.htm
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effect
decomposability
course predictability
time
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Pancake Type Collapse
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Domino Like Collapse
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Zipping Like Collapse
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2002
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3) Qualitative measure that could possibly lead the collapse to an halt: in the case of a
3) Qualitative
central rupture ameasure that could
closer increment in possibly leadofthe
the section thecollapse
hangersto(that
an halt: in the
remain case the
instead of a
central
same forrupture a closer
about 5/6 increment
of the in the
span length) section
could of the
possibly hangers
provide for(that remainstandstill.
a collapse instead theIn
the case of a chain rupture triggered in a lateral zone the preferential direction showedIn
same for about 5/6 of the span length) could possibly provide for a collapse standstill.
the caseprogressive
by the of a chain rupture
collapsetriggered in a lateral
would probably make zone
lessthe preferential
effective such adirection
measure.showed by
the progressive collapse would probably make less effective such a measure.
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Es.
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https://www.tuhh.de/sdb/starossek/Ver
oeffentlichungen/Dateien/Progressive%2
0collapse%20of%20bridges%20(Uwe%20
Starossek).pdf
http://www.confederationbridge.com/ab
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out/confederation-bridge/design.html 216
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Need of discontinuity
https://www.tuhh.de/sdb/starossek/Veroeffentlichungen/Dateien/Progressive%20collapse%20of%20bridges%20(Uwe%20Starossek).pdf
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Design as Foresight
STRUCTURAL ROBUSTNESS
IN THE GENERAL SENSE
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design
clima
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ATTUALE
Verifiche di sicurezza agli Stati Limite
Stati limite di esercizio Stati limite ultimi
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ALZATO ACCOPPIATO
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ACCOPPIATO ACCOPPIATO
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ACCOPPIATO ACCOPPIATO
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ACCOPPIATO CONTROVENTATO
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HUMAN ERROR
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B B B
- la sensazione di avere, al riparo delle norme, responsabilità assai
Human errors
Known phenomena
alleviate;
A - la difficoltà non infrequente di rendersi conto dei ragionamenti che
giustificano certe regole, rischiando di considerare queste alla stregua
di algoritmi, ossia di schemi operativi che, una volta appresi, il
pensiero non è più chiamato a giustificare.»
past present future -
Time Proliferazione delle normative e tecnicismo. Ultima lezione ufficiale del corso di Tecnica delle costruzioni tenuta dal prof.Piero Pozzati
- nell'a.a. 1991-'92, presso la Facoltà di Ingegneria dell'Università di Bologna (3 giugno 1992).
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Errors by Reason
conoscenza
esecuzione valutazione
scelta
decisione scelta
decisione
conoscenza
valutazione
esecuzione
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conoscenza
valutazione
conoscenza
valutazione scelta
decisione
scelta
decisione
esecuzione
esecuzione
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Errors by Rasmussen
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Sharp Criteria vs. Fuzzy Criteria Judgement Errors
• Context dependence • Conformity
• Contrast effect • The representativeness heuristic
• Recency effect • Law of small numbers
• Halo effect • Hot hand
• Plasticity • Neglecting base rates
• Order effects • Nonregressive prediction
• Pseudo-opinions • Synchronicity
• Vividness • Causalation
• Wishful thinking • Salience
• Anchoring • Minority influence
• Social loafing • Groupthink
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MANAGING
THE UNEXPECTED
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Unexpected events
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http://abyss.uoregon.edu/~js/21st_century_science/lectures/lec08.html http://abyss.uoregon.edu/~js/21st_century_science/lectures/lec08.html
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Authorities vs Experts
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High Reliability Organization (HRO)
• A high reliability organization (HRO) is an organization that
has succeeded in avoiding catastrophes in an environment
where normal accidents can be expected due to risk factors
and complexity.
• Important case studies in HRO research include both studies
of disasters (e.g., Three Mile Island nuclear incident, the
Challenger explosion and Columbia explosion, the Bhopal
chemical leak, the Tenerife air crash, the Mann Gulch forest
fire, the Black Hawk friendly fire incident in Iraq) and cases
like the air traffic control system, naval aircraft carriers, and
nuclear power operations.
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2 - Resists
oversimplification 4 - Maintains capabilities for
resilience
5 - Takes advantage of
shifting locations of
expertise
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• Mindfulness – a rich awareness of discriminatory • The big difference between functioning in HROs and in other
detail and an enhanced ability to discover and correct organizations is often most evident in the early stages when
errors that could escalate into a crisis. the unexpected gives off only weak signals of trouble.
• By mindful, one also means striving to maintain an • The overwhelming tendency is to respond to weak signals
underlying style of mental functioning that is with a weak response. Mindfulness preserves the capability
distinguished by continuous updating and deepening to see the significance of weak signals and to respond
of increasingly plausible interpretations of the vigorously.
context, what problems define it, and what remedies
it contains.
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Resilience Note
• To be resilient is to be mindful about errors that have • Mindfulness also involves preferences that are diverse; close
already occurred and to correct them before they worsen attention to situations; resilience in the face of events; sensemaking
and cause more serious harm. that shows whether a decision is necessary; people with diverse
interests who debate, speak up, and listen to one another; and
• Resilience encourages people to act while thinking or to act designs that are malleable rather than fixed.
in order to think more clearly. • When you try to move toward mindfulness, there is resistance, partly
• Resilience is about bouncing back from errors and about because of threats to psychology safety.
coping with surprises in the moment. • After all, it’s a whole lot easier to bask in success, keep it simple,
• Achieved through an extensive action repertoire and skills follow routines, avoid trouble, and do an adequate job. I know how to
do those things. But dwell on failure? Question my assumptions?
with improvisation. Linger over details? Fight fires creatively? Ask for help? No thanks. Or
more likely, “You first!”
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Mindlessness (1)
• When people function mindlessly, they don’t understand
either themselves or their environments, but they feel as
though they do.
• A silent contributor to mindlessness is the zeal found in most
firms for planning. Plans act the same way as expectations.
They guide people to search narrowly for confirmation that
the plan is correct.
• Mindlessness is more likely when people are distracted,
hurried, or overloaded.
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• A tendency toward mindlessness is characterized by a style • It is impossible to manage any organization solely by means
of mental functioning in which people follow recipes, impose of mindless control systems that depend on rules, plans,
old categories to classify what they see, act with some routines, stable categories, and fixed criteria for correct
rigidity, operate on automatic pilot, and mislabel unfamiliar performance.
new contexts as familiar old ones. • No one knows enough to design such a system so that it can
• A mindless mental style works to conceal problems that are cope with a dynamic environment.
worsening. • Instead, designers who want to hold dynamic systems
together must organize in ways that evoke mindful work.
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John Boyd
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HRO Principle 1: Preoccupation with failure.
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• HROs encourage reporting of errors, they elaborate • Another way HROs manage for the unexpected is by
experiences of a near miss for what can be learned, and they being reluctant to accept simplifications.
are wary of the potential liabilities of success, including • It is certainly true that success in any coordinated
complacency, the temptation to reduce margins of safety, activity requires that people simplify in order to stay
and the drift into automatic processing. focused on a handful of key issues and key indicators.
• They also make a continuing effort to articulate mistakes But it is also true that less simplification allows you to
they don’t want to make and assess the likelihood that see more. HROs take deliberate steps to create more
strategies increase the risk of triggering these mistakes. complete and nuanced pictures of what they face and
who they are as they face it.
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Note Note
• The essence of resilience is therefore the intrinsic ability of • Resilience is a combination of keeping errors small and of
an organization (system) to maintain or regain a dynamically improvising workarounds that allow the system to keep
stable state, which allows it to continue operations after a functioning.
major mishap and/or in the presence of a continuous stress. • Both pathways to resilience demand deep knowledge of the
technology, the system, one’s coworkers, and most of all,
• HROs develop capabilities to detect, contain, and bounce oneself.
back from those inevitable errors that are part of an • HROs put a premium on training, personnel with deep and
indeterminate world. varied experience, and skills of recombination and making do
• The hallmark of an HRO is not that it is error-free but that with whatever is at hand. They imagine worst-case
errors don’t disable it. conditions and practice their own equivalent of fire drills.
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HRO Principle 5: Deference to Expertise. Note
• HROs is deferent to expertise. • Decisions are made on the front line, and authority migrates
to the people with the most expertise, regardless of their
• HROs cultivate diversity, not just because it helps rank. This is not simply a case of people deferring to the
them notice more in complex environments, but also person with the “most experience.”
because it helps them do more with the complexities.
• Experience by itself is no guarantee of expertise, since all too
• Rigid hierarchies have their own special vulnerability often people have the same experience over and over and
to error. Errors at higher levels tend to pick up and do little to elaborate those repetitions. The pattern of
combine with errors at lower levels, thereby making decisions “migrating” to expertise is found in flight
the resulting problem bigger, harder to comprehend, operations on aircraft carriers, where “uniqueness coupled
and more prone to escalation. with the need for accurate decisions leads to decisions that
‘search’ for the expert and migrate around the organization.
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Note Confirmations
• Self-fulfilling theory can be divided into two behaviors, one would be the • Many of expectations are reasonably accurate. They tend to
Pygmalion effect which is when “one person has expectations of another, changes
her behavior in accordance with these expectations, and the object of the be confirmed, partly because they are based on experience
expectations then also changes her behavior as a result.” and partly because one corrects those that have negative
• Additionally, philosopher Karl Popper called the self-fulfilling prophecy the consequences.
Oedipus effect:
• One of the ideas I had discussed in The Poverty of Historicism was the influence • The tricky part is that all of us tend to be awfully generous in
of a prediction upon the event predicted. I had called this the "Oedipus effect", what we accept as evidence that our expectations are
because the oracle played a most important role in the sequence of events which
led to the fulfilment of its prophecy. [...] For a time I thought that the existence of confirmed.
the Oedipus effect distinguished the social from the natural sciences. But in
biology, too—even in molecular biology—expectations often play a role in • Furthermore, we actively seek out evidence that confirms
bringing about what has been expected. our expectations and avoid evidence that disconfirms them.
• An early precursor of the concept appears in Edward Gibbon’s Decline and Fall of
the Roman Empire: "During many ages, the prediction, as it is usual, contributed
to its own accomplishment" (chapter I, part II).
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Unpleasant Feelings
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Plans Counteract to seek confirmation
• This same pattern of confirmation seeking is associated with
plans. • People in HROs work hard to counteract the tendency to
• Plans guide people to search narrowly for confirmation that seek confirmation by designing practices that incorporate
the plans are correct. the five principles.
• Disconfirming evidence is avoided, and plans lure you into • They understand that their expectations are incomplete and
overlooking a buildup of the unexpected. that they can come closer to getting it right if they doubt
• This is not surprising since much of the imagery used to those expectations that seem to be confirmed most often.
describe plans is like the imagery people use when they talk
about expectations.
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• The tendencies to seek confirmation and avoid • If you understand the problems that expectations create, you
disconfirmation are well-honed, well-practiced human understand the problems that plans create. And you may
tendencies. begin to understand why a preoccupation with plans and
• That’s why HROs have to work so hard and so continuously planning makes it that much harder for you to act mindfully.
to override these tendencies and remain alert. And that’s • By contrast, mindfulness is essentially a preoccupation with
why you may have to work just as hard. updating. It is grounded in an understanding that knowledge
• All of us face an ongoing struggle for alertness because we and ignorance grow together.
face an ongoing preference for information that confirms.
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Start Finally
• In each of these three cases, the surprise starts with an
expectation. • If you are slow to realize that things are not the way you
• Presumably, if you hold these expectations, you look for expected them to be, the problem worsens and becomes
evidence that confirms them rather than evidence that harder to solve and gets entangled with other problems.
disconfirms them. • When it finally becomes clear that your expectation is
• If you find confirming evidence, this “proves” that your wrong, there may be few options left to resolve the problem.
hunches about the world are accurate, that you are in • In the meantime, efficiency and effectiveness have declined,
control, that you know what’s up, and that you are safe. the system is now vulnerable to further collapse, and safety,
• The continuing search for confirming evidence postpones reputations, and production are in jeopardy.
your realization that your model has its limits.
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Imaginations WTC
• A significant goal of HROs is to increase their understanding
of the third form of the unexpected and to expand
knowledge of “the imagined deemed possible.”
• The commission’s report contains this striking
assertion:
• HRO principles steer people toward mindful practices that
encourage imagination. “Imagination is not a gift usually associated with
• The crucial nature of imagination is reflected in the report of bureaucracies. ... It is therefore crucial to find a way of
the commission investigating the terrorist attacks on routinizing, even bureaucratizing the exercise of
September 11, 2001. It found shortfalls in imagination prior imagination. Doing so requires more than finding an
to the collapse of the twin towers. expert who can imagine that aircraft could be used as
weapons.”
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Alertness Trivialize
• It takes more than a shrewd expert to forestall the • People sometimes inadvertently trivialize the importance of
unexpected in most situations. imagination. For example, these days we keep hearing the
• It takes mindful practices that encourage imagination, foster hollow maxim “Expect the unexpected.” That well-meaning
enriched expectations, raise doubts about all expectations, sentiment assumes that people can live their lives while
increase the ability to make novel sense of small assuming that their expectations are misleading.
interruptions in expectations, and facilitate learning that • The problem is, they can’t afford to. They live, instead, as if
intensifies and deepens alertness. their expectations are basically correct and as if there is little
that can surprise them. To do otherwise would be to forgo
any feeling of control or predictability.
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Virginity Leemers
• You’ll probably know when something unexpected happens
• Once you’ve accepted an anomaly or something less than because you’ll feel surprised, puzzled, or anxious. Aviators
perfect, you know, you’ve given up your virginity. You can’t call these feelings leemers (probably derived from leery), the
go back. You’re at the point that it’s very hard to draw the feeling that something is not quite right, but you can’t put
line. You know, next time they say it’s the same problem, it’s your finger on it. Trust those feelings. They are a solid clue
just eroded 5 mils more. Once you accepted it, where do you that your model of the world is in error.
draw the line? Once you’ve done it, it’s very difficult to go • More important, try to hold on to those feelings and resist
back now and get very hard-nosed and say I’m not going to the temptation to gloss over what has just happened and
accept that. treat it as normal. In that brief interval between surprise and
successful normalizing lies one of your few opportunities to
discover what you don’t know.
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• This is one of those rare moments when you can significantly • If you update and differentiate the labels you impose on the
improve your understanding. world, the unexpected will be spotted earlier and dealt with
• If you wait too long, normalizing will take over, and you’ll be more fully, and sustained high performance will be more
convinced that there is nothing to learn. assured.
• Most opportunities for learning come in the form of brief • Reliability is a dynamic event and gets compromised by
moments. distraction and ignorance.
• And one of the best moments for learning, a moment of the • Mindfulness is about staying attuned to what is happening
unexpected, is also one of the shortest-lived moments. and about a deepening grasp of what those events mean.
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Importance of Doctrine
• When you think about mindful culture as a means to manage
the unexpected, keep the following picture of culture in front
of you.
• Culture is about the assumptions that influence the people
who manage the unexpected. Culture can hold large systems
together. Culture is unspoken, implicit, taken for granted. You
feel culture when what you do feels appropriate or
Culture inappropriate. You feel the unexpected when something
surprises you.
• Culture produces simultaneous centralization-
decentralization by binding people to a small set of core
values and allowing them discretion over everything else.
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Churchill’s Audit Culture
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James Reason
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Mindful Culture
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Structural Robustness of Bridges and Viaducts 390
Structural Robustness
of Bridges and Viaducts
Franco Bontempi
Professore Ordinario di Tecnica delle Costruzioni
Facoltà di Ingegneria Civile e Industriale
UNIVERSITÀ DEGLI STUDI DI ROMA LA SAPIENZA
Via Eudossiana 18 - 00184 Roma – ITALIA
franco.bontempi@uniroma1.it