Nama : Witri Fauziana Uchy

NIM : A021221048
STATISTIKA EKONOMI (L)

ANALISIS DATA REGRESI NON LINEAR

Pendapatan
Tahun PDRB
Daerah
1998 213820 21507,8
1999 214180 22855,8
2000 214653 31768,8
2001 215008 32138,8
2002 215258 31931,8
2003 215620 42162,8
2004 216112 41761,8
2005 216592 52078,8
2006 217004 71003,8
2007 217696 72543,8
2008 218306 81198,8
2009 218493 92351,8
2010 218849 91348,8
2011 219466 92550,8
2012 219699 110893,8
2013 2110266 120697,8
2014 2111345 110275,8
2015 2111392 120212,8
2016 2112250 111802,8
2017 2113161 122297,8
2018 2114911 113364,8
2019 2115834 124220,8

1. Data Logaritma Natural

Tahun InPDRBt (Y) InGt (X) XY X^2
1998 12,27288982 9,976170939 122,4364467 99,5239866
1999 12,27457206 10,03696019 123,1993912 100,7405699
2000 12,27677805 10,36623996 127,2640271 107,4589308
2001 12,27843052 10,3778193 127,4233332 107,6991335
2002 12,27959259 10,37135766 127,3560466 107,5650597
 2003 12,28127288 10,64929359 130,7868806 113,4074541
2004 12,28355207 10,63973733 130,6937675 113,2040103
2005 12,28577068 10,86051324 133,4297751 117,9507477
2006 12,28767107 11,17048868 137,2592905 124,7798173
2007 12,29085487 11,1919458 137,5585815 125,2596507
2008 12,29365303 11,30465575 138,9755154 127,7952416
2009 12,29450926 11,43336048 140,5675562 130,7217318
2010 12,29613727 11,42244043 140,4518955 130,4721453
2011 12,2989526 11,43551296 140,6448319 130,7709567
2012 12,30001371 11,61632827 142,8809969 134,9390824
2013 14,56232456 11,70104518 170,3944176 136,9144583
2014 14,56283574 11,61073978 169,0852963 134,8092782
2015 14,562858 11,69701878 170,3420236 136,8202484
2016 14,56326429 11,62449188 169,2905475 135,1288116
2017 14,56369549 11,71421433 170,6022504 137,2228174
2018 14,56452329 11,63836622 169,5072558 135,4515682
2019 14,56495962 11,72981591 170,844295 137,5885812
Σ 286,2391115 244,5685166 3190,994422 2726,224282

= 22 (3190,994422) - (244,5685166)(286,2391115)
22(2726,224282) - (244,5685166)2
= 70.201,877284 - 70.005,074892457
59.976,934204 - 59.813,75931192448
= 196,802391
163,341084
= 1,204855
B0 = ΣX - Bˆ1 ΣY
n n
B0 = 244,5685166 - 1,204855 x 286,2391115
22 22
B0 = 11,11675075 - 1,204855 x 13,0108687
B0 = 11,11675075 - 15,67621021
B0 = - 4,5594
 = 4,45594 + 1,204855 X
2. Koefisiensi Regresi

4,5594+1,204855 (1) 5,764255 52,51341012 0,54461

4,5594+1,204855 (2) 6,96911 36,50284819 0,54213
4,5594+1,204855 (3) 8,173965 23,3956374 0,53889
4,5594+1,204855 (4) 9,37882 13,19177776 0,53647
4,5594+1,204855 (5) 10,583675 5,891269257 0,53476
4,5594+1,204855 (6) 11,78853 1,494111898 0,53231
4,5594+1,204855 (7) 12,993385 0,00030568 0,52899
4,5594+1,204855 (8) 14,19824 1,409850604 0,52577
4,5594+1,204855 (9) 15,403095 5,72274667 0,52301
4,5594+1,204855 (10) 16,60795 12,93899388 0,51842
4,5594+1,204855 (11) 17,812805 23,05859223 0,51440
4,5594+1,204855 (12) 19,01766 36,08154172 0,51317
4,5594+1,204855 (13) 20,222515 52,00784236 0,51084
4,5594+1,204855 (14) 21,42737 70,83749413 0,50682
4,5594+1,204855 (15) 22,632225 92,57049705 0,50531
4,5594+1,204855 (16) 23,83708 117,2068511 2,40702
4,5594+1,204855 (17) 25,041935 144,7465563 2,40860
4,5594+1,204855 (18) 26,24679 175,1896127 2,40867
4,5594+1,204855 (19) 27,451645 208,5360201 2,40993
4,5594+1,204855 (20) 28,6565 244,7857788 2,41127
4,5594+1,204855 (21) 29,861355 283,9388885 2,41384
4,5594+1,204855 (22) 31,06621 325,9953495 2,41520
Σ 405,135115 1928,015976 24,75045
3. Koefisiensi Determinasi

R2 yx =

R2 yx = 1928,015976
24,75045
R2 yx = 77,89821906

R2 yx = 77,8982191%

4. Penerapan / Kesimpulan
= 4,45594 + 1,204855 X
Hasil analisis regresi tersebut menunjukkan bahwa konsumsi otonom, sebesar 4,5594
dan marginal propersity to consume (MPC) sebesar 1,204855. MPC tersebut menunjukkan
bahwa jika terjadi keinaikan pendapatan RT (Disposible Income) sebesar US$ 1 misalnya,
maka akan mendorong pengeluaran konsumsi RT sebesar 1,204855 dengan kata lain
pengaruh pendapatan terhadap konsumsi sebesar 1,204855.
Untuk mengetahui kontribusi pendapatan terhadap perubahan pengeluaran konsumsi
RT, maka digunakan koefisien determinasi :
R2 yx = 77,8982191%
Angka 77,8982191% menunjukkan bahwa kontribusi/peranan perubahan nilai X terhadap
perubahan nilai variable Y sebesar = 77,8982191%