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Analysis of the water balance under regional scenarios of climate change for
arid zones of Colombia

Jesús Efrén OSPINA-NOREÑA,a* Carlos Alberto DOMÍNGUEZ-RAMÍREZ,a


Emel Enrique VEGA-RODRÍGUEZ,b Aquiles Enrique DARGHAN-CONTRERAS,a
and Luis Ernesto RODRÍGUEZ-MOLANOa

a
Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias, Departamento de Agronomía, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Carrera 30 núm.
(GL¿FLR%RJRWi'&&RORPELD
b
)DFXOWDG GH &LHQFLDV 8QLYHUVLGDG 1DFLRQDO GH &RORPELD &DUUHUD  Q~P  (GL¿FLR  %RJRWi ' &
Colombia
*
Corresponding author; jeospinan@unal.edu.co

Received: October 9, 2016; accepted: December 7, 2016

RESUMEN
En este trabajo se analizan en detalle los parámetros implicados en el balance hídrico. Se consideran las
condiciones actuales y el cambio climático en una zona representativa de clima árido en Colombia: la región
GHVpUWLFDGH8ULELDHQHOGHSDUWDPHQWRGH/D*XDMLUD&RQHVWH¿QVHVHOHFFLRQDURQDOJXQDVHVWDFLRQHVFOL-
matológicas que, de acuerdo con los valores registrados de temperatura y precipitación, pueden considerarse
representativas de áreas climáticas áridas o desérticas según el índice de Lang (PCP/Tavg). Se construyó una
línea de referencia a partir de los registros históricos de precipitación y temperatura y se analizó su comporta-
miento. Los datos de las estaciones se obtuvieron de la base de datos del Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología
y Estudios Ambientales de Colombia. Después de calcular los escenarios de referencia, se estimó el balance
hídrico actual tomando en cuenta las variables originales e incluyendo, cuando fue necesario, nuevos paráme-
WURVSDUDHOFiOFXORGHODHFXDFLyQVLPSOL¿FDGDGHFRQWLQXLGDG(ODQiOLVLVLQFOX\ySDUiPHWURVFRPRSRWHQFLDO
GHHYDSRWUDQVSLUDFLyQKXPHGDGGHOVXHORDOPDFHQDPLHQWRRUHFDUJD\VXVFDPELRVGp¿FLW\H[FHVRKtGULFR
escorrentía, periodos de recarga y uso del agua. Las anomalías de temperatura y precipitación se calcularon
tomando en cuenta los nuevos escenarios climáticos “trayectorias representativas de concentración” para
diferentes periodos (de corto y largo plazo). Con las anomalías encontradas se ajustó la línea de referencia
SDUDODVYDULDEOHVPHQFLRQDGDVDQWHULRUPHQWH\ORVSDUiPHWURVDVRFLDGRVVHDQDOL]DURQHQHOFRQWH[WRGHO
EDODQFHKtGULFR(QHVFHQDULRVGHFDPELRFOLPiWLFRHOEDODQFHKtGULFRSUR\HFWDXQDSRVLEOHLQWHQVL¿FDFLyQ
de las condiciones desérticas en la región de Uribia-Guajira, ya que se espera una disminución en el índice
de Lang de su valor actual de 18.7 (desértico) a 17 en 2050 y 14.5 en 2070, como resultado de una reducción
de las precipitaciones (2.4 y 11%) y un incremento de la temperatura anual promedio de alrededor de 1.7
ºC con el modelo HadGEM2-ES para el periodo 2041-2060 y de 3.7 ºC con el modelo GFDL-CM3 para el
SHULRGR(VWRVHFRPSUXHEDPHGLDQWHODFODVL¿FDFLyQFOLPiWLFDGH7KRUQWKZDLWHTXHWLSL¿FDHO
iUHDGHHVWXGLRFRPRXQD]RQDiULGDFRQUHFXUVRVKtGULFRVOLPLWDGRV\VLQH[FHGHQWHV(VWHGp¿FLWSRGUtD
acarrear graves consecuencias ambientales, problemas sociales y declinación de la productividad agrícola e
industrial de la región.

ABSTRACT
7KLVZRUNGLVFXVVHVLQGHWDLOWKHSDUDPHWHUVLQYROYHGLQZDWHUEDODQFH7KHDQDO\VLVLVSHUIRUPHGE\FRQ-
sidering the current conditions and climate change in a climatic zone that represents the arid regions of Co-
lombia: The municipality of Uribia (desert) in the state of La Guajira. For this purpose, some climatological
VWDWLRQVZKLFKE\WKHLUUHSRUWHGYDOXHVRIWHPSHUDWXUHDQGSUHFLSLWDWLRQFDQEHFRQVLGHUHGUHSUHVHQWDWLYH
RIWKHDULGRUGHVHUWFOLPDWLF]RQHVDFFRUGLQJWRWKH/DQJ¶VLQGH[ 3&37avg ZHUHVHOHFWHG7KHQZLWK

‹8QLYHUVLGDG1DFLRQDO$XWyQRPDGH0p[LFR&HQWURGH&LHQFLDVGHOD$WPyVIHUD
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
64 J. E. Ospina-Noreña et al.

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DQGLWVEHKDYLRUDQDO\]HG7KHVWDWLRQGDWDZHUHREWDLQHGIURPWKHGDWDEDVHRIWKH,QVWLWXWRGH+LGURORJtD
Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales (Institute of Hidrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies) of
&RORPELD$IWHUHVWLPDWLQJWKHEDVHOLQHVFHQDULRVWKHFXUUHQWZDWHUEDODQFHRQWKHVLWHZDVFDOFXODWHGE\
WDNLQJLQWRDFFRXQWWKHRULJLQDOYDULDEOHVDQGLQFOXGLQJQHZSDUDPHWHUVLIQHFHVVDU\IRUWKHFDOFXODWLRQRI
WKHVLPSOL¿HGFRQWLQXLW\HTXDWLRQ7KHDQDO\VLVLQFOXGHGSDUDPHWHUVVXFKDVSRWHQWLDODQGDFWXDOHYDSRWUDQV-
SLUDWLRQPRLVWXUHRIVRLOVWRUDJHRUUHFKDUJHDQGWKHLUFKDQJHVZDWHUGH¿FLWDQGH[FHVVUXQRIISHULRGVRI
UHFKDUJHDQGZDWHUXVH$QRPDOLHVLQWHPSHUDWXUHV ž& DQGSUHFLSLWDWLRQZHUHFDOFXODWHGE\WDNLQJLQWR
DFFRXQWWKHQHZFOLPDWHVFHQDULRV³UHSUHVHQWDWLYHFRQFHQWUDWLRQSDWKZD\V´IRUGLIIHUHQWSHULRGV VKRUWDQG
ORQJWHUP :LWKWKHDQRPDOLHVLGHQWL¿HGWKHEDVHOLQHIRUWKHDERYHPHQWLRQHGYDULDEOHVZDVDGMXVWHG$JDLQ
WKHDVVRFLDWHGSDUDPHWHUVZHUHDQDO\]HGDQGGLVFXVVHGLQWKHFRQWH[WRIZDWHUEDODQFH,QFOLPDWHFKDQJH
VFHQDULRVWKHZDWHUEDODQFHSURMHFWVDSURVSHFWLYHH[DFHUEDWLRQRIGHVHUWFRQGLWLRQVLQWKH8ULELD*XDMLUD
UHJLRQVLQFHDGHFUHDVHLQWKH/DQJ¶VLQGH[IURPLWVFXUUHQWYDOXHRI GHVHUW WRLQDQG
LQLVH[SHFWHGDVDFRQVHTXHQFHRIDGHFUHDVHLQSUHFLSLWDWLRQ DQG DQGDQLQFUHDVHLQDQ-
QXDOWHPSHUDWXUHRIDERXWž&ZLWKWKH+DG*(0(6PRGHOIRUWKHSHULRGDQGž&ZLWK
WKH*)'/&0PRGHOIRUWKHSHULRG7KLVFDQEHYHUL¿HGE\PHDQVRIWKH7KRUQWKZDLWHFOLPDWH
FODVVL¿FDWLRQZKLFKFDWHJRUL]HVWKHDUHDRIVWXG\DVDQDULG]RQHZLWKOLPLWHGDQGQRH[FHVVRIZDWHU7KLV
GH¿FLWFRXOGOHDGWRVHULRXVHQYLURQPHQWDOFRQVHTXHQFHVVRFLDOSUREOHPVDQGDGHFOLQHLQWKHLQGXVWULDODQG
agricultural productivity of the zone.

Keywords:&LPDWHFKDQJHZDWHUEDODQFHFOLPDWLFVFHQDULRVDULG]RQHV

1. Introduction due to higher temperatures, and an increase in ac-


According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate WXDOJOREDODQGUHJLRQDOHYDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQZKLFK
Change (IPCC, 2013), the increase of greenhouse ZLOOEHDIIHFWHGE\YDULDWLRQVLQSUHFLSLWDWLRQOHYHOV
JDVHVLQWKHDWPRVSKHUHPD\KDYHDQLQÀXHQFHRQWKH spatiotemporal changes in rain distribution, values of
mean gOREDOZDUPLQJRIWKH(DUWK¶VVXUIDFHZLWKLQWKH daily temperature, aerosols concentration, alteration
range of 0.5 to 1.3 ºC during the period 1951-2010. RI QHW UDGLDWLRQ YDSRU SUHVVXUH GH¿FLW DQG ZLQG
5HJDUGLQJWKHQDWXUDOLQWHUQDOYDULDELOLW\LWLVH[SHFWHG speed (IPCC, 2007; Bates et al., 2008; Fu et al., 2009;
that average annual and seasonal temperature increases McVicar et al., 2010; Miralles et al., 2011; Wang A.
ZLOOEHKLJKHULQWKHWURSLFVDQGVXEWURSLFVWKDQLQWKH HWDO.XQG]HZLF]HWDO 7KHVHIHDWXUHV
mid-latitudes. For the period 2081-2100, the average FRXOGKDYHDQHJDWLYHLQÀXHQFHRQWKHZDWHUVRXUFHV
(DUWK¶V WHPSHUDWXUH LV H[SHFWHG WR EH LQ WKH UDQJHV Among the main factors that have an effect on
GHULYHGIURPWKHQHZFOLPDWHFKDQJHVFHQDULRVEURXJKW WKHQDWXUDOZDWHUVXSSO\DQGLWVTXDOLW\RWKHUWKDQ
LQWRFRQVLGHUDWLRQWKDWLVZLWKLQFUHDVHVRIž& FOLPDWHZHPD\¿QGFKDQJHLQODQGXVHZDWHUGDP-
(RCP 2.6), 1.1-2.6 ºC (RCP 4.5), 1.4-3.1 ºC (RCP 6.0), ming for different activities, polluting emissions in
DQGž& 5&3 /LNHZLVHE\WKHHQGRIWKH WKHDWPRVSKHUHWUHDWPHQWRIZDVWHZDWHUDQGVRFLDO
century the average annual precipitation estimated for economic and technological changes and their respec-
WKH5&3VFHQDULRLVH[SHFWHGWRLQFUHDVHLQKLJK tive relations, including lifestyle changes (van Vuuren
ODWLWXGHVDQGLQWKHHTXDWRULDO3DFL¿F2FHDQZKLOHLW et al., 2012; IPCC, 2007). Furthermore, the demand
could decrease in many dry zones in mid-latitudes and of the hydric resource for its use and consumption
subtropics. This scenario also suggests huge impacts directly affects the demographic factor, food security
LQ]RQHVZLWKFOLPDWHVVLPLODUWRWKHVWXG\DUHD$ULG and sovereignty, politics, economy, technology, life-
and semi-arid regions in mid-latitudes and subtropics VW\OHDQGZDWHUFRQVXPSWLRQSULRULWLHV ,3&& 
DUHOLNHO\WRKDYHOHVVUDLQKHQFHLWLVHVWLPDWHGWKDW Among these non-climatic factors, land use change
IRUHDFKGHJUHHRIJOREDOZDUPLQJDSSUR[LPDWHO\ VWDQGVRXWVLQFHLWFRXOGVLJQL¿FDQWO\DIIHFWGULQNLQJ
RIWKHJOREDOSRSXODWLRQZLOOEHH[SRVHGWRDUHGXFWLRQ ZDWHUV\VWHPV)RUH[DPSOHVRLOGHJUDGDWLRQDWWULE-
of at least 20% in hydric resources (IPCC, 2013, 2014; XWDEOHWRXUEDQDFWLYLWLHVFRXOGLQFUHDVHWKHULVNVRI
Jiménez Cisneros et al., 2014). ÀRRGVDQGGHFUHDVHWKHDTXLIHUUHFKDUJHGXHWRWKH
This results in alterations of the hydrological cy- settlement of communities near the channels or the
cle, such as increase or reinforcement of evaporation limitation of recharge from natural ground currents
Climate change in arid zones 65

as a consequence of compaction or other impacts On the other hand, IDEAM (2015a) suggests that
resulting from urbanization, apart from disturbing the main reductions in precipitations by the end of
WKHQDWXUDOV\VWHPV6LPLODUO\UHJDUGLQJIUHVKZDWHU WKHFHQWXU\ZLOORFFXULQWKHVWDWHVRI6DQ$QGUpVDQG
systems, using land for agriculture in the future, in Providencia, Magdalena, and Guajira. This report
SDUWLFXODUIRULUULJDWLRQZKLFKUHSUHVHQWVDOPRVW also estimates that in the average ensemble scenario,
RIWKHJOREDOGHPDQGRIZDWHUZLOOVHYHUHO\LPSDFW potential droughts may occur in the north of Cesar,
its availability for domestic use and the proper func- Magdalena and Guajira by 2100. Furthermore, it is
tioning of ecosystems (Döll, 2009). suggested that the probability of a shortage of food
*URXQGZDWHU V\VWHPV FKDQJH DW D VORZHU SDFH harvested in the region could increase. The hydric
WKDQZDWHUDYDLODEOHLQWKHVXUIDFH6WXGLHVUHJDUGLQJ shortage could affect sectors such as agriculture, and
FOLPDWHFKDQJHWRDVVHVVDQGDQDO\]HJURXQGZDWHU LQSDUWLFXODUVWRFNEUHHGLQJDVZHOODVWKHHQHUJ\DQG
systems are limited, information is scarce and there tourism sectors in the Caribbean (IDEAM, 2015a).
is no access to the databases necessary for their study 7KLVVWXG\DLPVWRGHWHUPLQHWKHZDWHUEDODQFH
DQGDQDO\VLV0HDQZKLOHGURXJKWVDIIHFWDJULFXOWXUH under climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP
LQWHUPVRITXDOLW\DQGTXDQWLW\KDYLQJDGLUHFWLQÀX-  LQWZRSHULRGVRIWLPH DQG
HQFHRQIRRGVHFXULW\DQGVRYHUHLJQW\ZDWHUVXSSO\ 2080), based on the validation and modeling of the
for the consumption of different productive sectors climatic and hydrologic parameters that are distinc-
and others. Semi-arid and semi-humid regions around WLYH RI D UHJLRQ ZKLFK UHSUHVHQWV H[WUHPH GHVHUW
WKHZRUOGDV$XVWUDOLDWKHZHVWRIWKH86$WKHVRXWK conditions in Colombia, in order to describe the
of Canada and the Sahel have suffered very long LPSDFW RI VXUIDFH DQG JURXQGZDWHU DYDLODELOLW\ RQ
GURXJKWV²LQVRPHFDVHVGXULQJPDQ\\HDUVZLWK ecosystems, domestic use, and the productivity of
different intensities— but climate change can affect the primary and industrial sectors.
WKHP VLQFH LW LV H[SHFWHG WKDW GURXJKW FRQGLWLRQV
increase by about 30% by the end of the century 2. Materials and methods
.XQG]HZLF]HWDO  'HVFULSWLRQRIWKHVWXG\DUHD
In Colombia, according to the Instituto de Hi- An area that represents the arid and desert condi-
drología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales WLRQVLQ&RORPELDZDVVHOHFWHGLQRUGHUWRDQDO\]H
(Institute of Hidrology, Meteorology and Environ- DQGDVVHVVWKHSDUDPHWHUVLQYROYHGLQZDWHUEDODQFHDQG
mental Studies) (IDEAM, 2010), in the state of the effects of climate change in such region. The
Guajira and some other regions of the Caribbean, area selected corresponds to a desert zone initially
WKHUHDUHDUHDVZKHUHZDWHULVKLJKO\GH¿FLHQWHJ FODVVL¿HGDFFRUGLQJWRWKH/DQJ¶VLQGH[ ,L) or the
to the south of the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta UDWLREHWZHHQDQQXDOSUHFLSLWDWLRQ 3&3 DQGDYHUDJH
and in the sub-basins of the Magdalena and Cauca temperature (Tavg) (Table I), located in the munici-
rivers, corresponding to the high parts of the basin; to pality of Uribia in the state of Guajira.
the Savannah of Bogotá; to the Alto Cauca, and to the To describe the climate in the study area and
basin of the Chicamocha river. When a dry climatic HODERUDWHLWVEDVHOLQHDFOLPDWRORJLFDOVWDWLRQZDV
FRQGLWLRQRFFXUV DYHUDJH\HDU WKHZDWHU\LHOGUH- VHOHFWHG ZKLFK UHSUHVHQWHG WKH ]RQH DQG DOVR KDG
GXFHVVLJQL¿FDQWO\DVFRPSDUHGWRQRUPDOFRQGLWLRQV
,QSDUWLFXODUDVLJQL¿FDQWUHGXFWLRQLVREVHUYHGLQWKH 7DEOH,&OLPDWLF]RQHVDFFRUGLQJWR/DQJ¶VLQGH[ 3&3
&DULEEHDQPRUHVSHFL¿FDOO\LQWKH*XDMLUD Tavg).
The natural supply (availability) of the hydric re-
source in an average year and a dry year has regional IL Zone
differences that are important to discriminate. In the 0-20 Desert
hydrographic area of the Caribbean, the reduction of 20-40 Arid
the natural supply of this resource varies for these 40-60 Wet zone of steppe and savannah
FRQGLWLRQVEHWZHHQLQ$WUDWR'DULpQDQG 60-100 Wet zone of sparse forest
100-160 Wet zone of dense forest
in Catatumbo. Within the same area, in the Urabá >160 9HU\ZHW]RQHRIJUDVVODQGDQGWXQGUD
Antioqueño this difference is of 68%, in Sinú of 59%,
and in the Guajira of 63% (IDEAM, 2010). 6RXUFH$OPRUR[
66 J. E. Ospina-Noreña et al.

KLVWRULFDO UHFRUGV ZLWK UHOHYDQW YDULDEOHV VXFK DV After obtaining the monthly value of PCP and
Tavg PD[LPXP DQG PLQLPXP WHPSHUDWXUH 7PD[, (7R RWKHU YDULDEOHV RI WKH ZDWHU EDODQFH ZHUH
and Tmin, respectively), PCP, and evaporation (Ev), FDOFXODWHG7KLVFRQVLVWHGLQGH¿QLQJWKHIROORZLQJ
among others. The baseline covers the period be- SDUDPHWHUV LQPP WKHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQSUHFLS-
WZHHQDQG7KHGDWDZHUHREWDLQHGIURP itation and evapotranspiration (PCP – (7R>ǻ@ WKH
the IDEAM database. UHVHUYHRUVWRUDJHRIXVDEOHZDWHU5 6WR WKHGH¿FLW
H[FHVVDQGYDULDWLRQLQWKHUHVHUYHRUVWRUDJHRIXV-
 &DOFXODWLRQ RI ZDWHU EDODQFH SDUDPHWHUV LQ DEOHZDWHU 'HI([FDQGǻ5>ǻ6WR@UHVSHFWLYHO\ 
normal conditions the actual evapotranspiration; the replacement (R);
Water balance is considered an essential tool to and the usage (U).
ORFDWH DQG HVWDEOLVK FURSV WUDFN WKHLU JURZWK DQG +HQFHLWZDVYHUL¿HGLI(7RZDVKLJKHURUORZHU
development, and program and perform hydraulic than PCP in the period considered (PCP – (7R ǻ 
LQIUDVWUXFWXUHZRUNV HJLQIUDVWUXFWXUHIRULUULJDWLRQ 7KH GLIIHUHQFH RU UHVXOW FODVVL¿HG WKH PRQWKV DV
and drainage, program activities for management and IROORZVGU\PRQWKVLI 3&3±(7R < 0) and humid
LUULJDWLRQ HWF  ,I IRU H[DPSOH ZDWHU DYDLODELOLW\ months if (PCP – (7R! 7RGH¿QHWKH5 6WR RI
to perform agricultural activities in any location de- XVDEOH ZDWHU WKH IROORZLQJ LV WDNHQ LQWR DFFRXQW
pends on precipitation and its resupply of moisture ZKHQ PRUH LQSXWV WKDQ RXWSXWV DUH SURGXFHG LQ D
WRWKHVRLOWKHÀXFWXDWLRQVEHWZHHQSUHFLSLWDWLRQDQG month, (PCP > (7R VXUSOXVZDWHUZLOOLQFUHDVHWKH
HYDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQ ZKLFKDUHHVVHQWLDOFRPSRQHQWV soil reserve; on the contrary, if there are more outputs
IRUZDWHUEDODQFH ZLOOLQÀXHQFHWKHDYDLODELOLW\RI WKDQLQSXWVWKHVRLOUHVHUYHZLOOGHFUHDVH
ZDWHUIRUWKHFURSV At this point, it is important to emphasize that
In order to assess the parameters involved in WKHUHVHUYHRUVWRUDJHRIXVDEOHZDWHULQWKHVRLOLV
ZDWHU EDODQFH RWKHU WKDQ WKH YDULDEOHV DOUHDG\ not uniform; it depends on the type and character-
analyzed), it is necessary to consider the potential istics related to the different types of soil. In this
evapotranspiration ((7R). To calculate (7R, the FAO SDUWLFXODU FDVH WDNHQ DV D FOLPDWLF UHIHUHQFH IRU
3HQPDQ0RQWHLWK PHWKRG ZDV WDNHQ LQWR DFFRXQW WKHVWXG\DUHDWKHPD[LPXPFDSDFLW\RIUHVHUYHRU
)$2 ZKLFKLVWKHRQO\PHWKRGUHFRPPHQGHG VWRUDJHRIZDWHU ¿HOGFDSDFLW\>)&@ LVPP
to determine (7RZLWKFOLPDWLFSDUDPHWHUV (T  7KXV5FDQRQO\KDYHYDOXHVEHWZHHQ GU\VRLO
ZLWKRXWZDWHUDYDLODEOHIRUSODQWV DQG RSWLPDO
0.408∆ (Rn – G) + γ
900
U2 (es – ea) humidity content).
T + 273
ETo = (1) ,QLWLDOO\ WKH PRQWK ZKHQ WKH SRVLWLYHǻ SHULRG
∆ + γ (1 + 0.34U2) VWDUWVZDVLGHQWL¿HGDQGDYDOXHRIZDVDVVLJQHG
to it. Some authors propose that a hypothetical value
ZKHUH(7R represents the baseline evapotranspiration should be assigned to a month and annual calcula-
(mm day–1), Rn the net radiation in the crop surface tion cycles should be conducted until reaching the
(MJ m–2 day–1), GWKHVRLOKHDWÀRZ 0-P–2 day–1), suggested hypothesis.
7 the air average temperature at a 2-m height (ºC), For calculation purposes, it is usually assumed
U2 WKH ZLQG VSHHG DW D P KHLJKW P V–1), es the that after a dry period the soil reserve is null (0). As a
VDWXUDWLRQ¶VYDSRUSUHVVXUH N3D ea the actual vapor UHVXOWWKHFDOFXODWLRQRI5EHJLQVZLWKWKH¿UVWKXPLG
SUHVVXUH N3D es – eaWKHYDSRUSUHVVXUHGH¿FLW N3D  month and the previous month receives a null (0)
ǻWKHVORSHRIWKHYDSRUSUHVVXUHFXUYH N3Dž&–1), UHVHUYH7KHQQH[WPRQWK¶V5RU6WRDUHFDOFXODWHG
and ȖWKHSV\FKURPHWULFFRQVWDQW N3Dž&–1). by adding the previous month’s R to PCP – (7R ǻ
7KH HVWLPDWLRQ ZDV PDGH ZLWK WKH KHOS RI WKH of the current month (Eq. 2)
&URSZDW  VRIWZDUH ZKLFK UHTXLUHV ORFDWLRQ
data, such as country, station, altitude, coordinates Ri = Ri–1 + (PCPi±(7Ri) (2)
(longitude and latitude); it also requires climatic
GDWDVXFKDVPD[LPXPDQGPLQLPXPWHPSHUDWXUH If the result is more than 100, then R = 100 and the
UHODWLYHKXPLGLW\ZLQGVSHHGDQGLQVRODWLRQRUKRXUV UHVWWUDQVIHUVWR([F,IRJRHVEHWZHHQDQGLW
of sunlight. WDNHVWKDWYDOXH UHVXOW DQGLIWKHUHVXOWLVOHVVWKDQ
Climate change in arid zones 67

0, R is = 0 and the value (result) transfers to Def. The 6HDVRQDOYDULDWLRQRIWKHHIIHFWLYHKXPLGLW\


rules are based on RiLQRWKHUZRUGVRi = Ri – 1 + 7KHPRLVWXUHLQGH[FDQLQGLFDWHKRZKXPLGRUDULG
(PCPi – (7Ri) if 0 < Ri – 1 + (PCPi – (7Ri)<RPD[; Ri a region is, but it cannot differentiate the seasonal
= Rmax if Ri – 1 + (PCPi – (7Ri) > Rmax; and Ri = 0 if variations; therefore, in humid climates (Im > 0) it
0 > Ri – 1 + (PCPi – (7Ri /DWHUWKHYDULDWLRQEHWZHHQ FRXOGEHQHFHVVDU\WRGHWHUPLQHZKHWKHUWKHUHDUH
WKHUHVHUYHDQGWKHVWRUDJHRIXVDEOHZDWHU ǻ5RUǻ GU\VHDVRQVDQGDVVHVVWKHGURXJKWGHJUHHZKLOHLQ
Sto) is calculated based on the result of the difference dry climates (Im < 0) it could be necessary to deter-
EHWZHHQWKHYDOXHRIVWRUDJHRIXVDEOHZDWHURIWKH PLQHZKHWKHUWKHUHDUHKXPLGVHDVRQVDQGDVVHVVWKH
month considered and the last month. If the sign is KXPLGLW\GHJUHH$QQH[$SUHVHQWVWKHVXEGLYLVLRQV
positive, it means the replacement (R) of the soil for humid climates (A, B, C2) and dry climates (C1,
moisture, and if the sign is negative, it means the D, E).
utilization (U) of the soil moisture (ǻRi = Ri – Ri – 1).
Finally, (7DLVGHWHUPLQHG7KHIROORZLQJFDVHV ,QGH[RIWKHUPDOHI¿FLHQF\
FDQ RFFXU HDFK PRQWK ,I 3&3 • (7R, then (7D = 7KHSRWHQWLDOHYDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQLVDWKHUPDOHI¿FLHQ-
(7R; and if PCP < (7R, then (7D = PCP + | ǻ Sto |. F\LQGH[DQGLWFDQEHFRQVLGHUHGDVDFOLPDWHIDFWRU
7KHFRHI¿FLHQW(7D/(7RGHWHUPLQHVWKHJURZWKSH- that involves the day length and temperature. This
ULRGVFRQVLGHULQJWKDWWKHPRQWKVZLWK(7D/(7R• LQGH[HQDEOHVWKHGLIIHUHQWLDWLRQEHWZHHQPHVRWKHU-
0.60 are appropriate to develop crops, although it is PDODQGPHJDWKHUPDOFOLPDWLF]RQHV&ODVVL¿FDWLRQV
QHFHVVDU\WRHVWLPDWHHDFKFRHI¿FLHQWIRUHYHU\FURS EDVHGRQWKLVLQGH[DUHFRPSDUDEOHWRWKRVHGHULYHG
and phenological stage. IURPWKHPRLVWXUHLQGH[WKXVWKH\DUHGHVLJQDWHG
E\VLPLODUV\PEROV VHHDQQH[$ 
 &OLPDWH FODVVL¿FDWLRQ E\ WKH 7KRUQWKZDLWH
method  7KHUPDO HI¿FLHQF\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ GXULQJ WKH
$IWHUFRQGXFWLQJWKHZDWHUEDODQFHFOLPDWHFODVVL¿- summertime
FDWLRQZDVSHUIRUPHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKH7KRUQWKZDLWH ,QHTXDWRULDO]RQHVZKHUHWKHGD\OHQJWKLVDSSUR[L-
PHWKRGDVIROORZV PDWHO\WKHVDPHGXULQJWKHZKROH\HDUDQGWHPSHUD-
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0RLVWXUHLQGH[ the (7RVHDVRQDOYDULDWLRQZLOOEHVOLJKWVLPLODUO\
$FFRUGLQJWR7KRUQWKZDLWHWKHKXPLGLW\RUDULGLW\ (7R corresponding to any three consecutive months
RIDFOLPDWHFDQEHH[SUHVVHGLQWHUPVRIWKHZDWHU ZLOOEHDSSUR[LPDWHO\RIWKHDQQXDO(7R.
H[FHVVLQGH[ ,h DQGWKHDULGLW\LQGH[ ,a IRUZKLFK 7KHWKHUPDOHI¿FLHQF\FRQFHQWUDWLRQFDQEHFDO-
WKHIROORZLQJHTXDWLRQVDUHXVHG FXODWHGXVLQJWKHQH[WHTXDWLRQ

Ih  ([F(7R ‡  EC = ((7RY/(7R)*100 (6)

Ia  'HI(7R ‡  ZKHUH (& LV WKH WKHUPDO HI¿FLHQF\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ
during summer, (7Rv the evapotranspiration of the
6LQFHWKHH[FHVVRUODFNRIZDWHUJHQHUDOO\RFFXU three summer months, and ETo the annual evapo-
in different seasons or periods, both should have a WUDQVSLUDWLRQ$QQH[$VKRZVWKHGLIIHUHQWWKHUPDO
PRLVWXUHLQGH[ Im SRVLWLYHO\DIIHFWLQJWKH¿UVWRQH ÀRRUVDFFRUGLQJWRWKHWKHUPDOHI¿FLHQF\FRQFHQWUD-
DQGQHJDWLYHO\WKHVHFRQGRQHOLNHWKLV tion in summer.

Im = Ih – Ia  ‡([F±‡'HI (7R (5) &DOFXODWLRQRIWKHZDWHUEDODQFHSDUDPHWHUVLQ


climate change conditions
Positive values of Im correspond to humid cli- 7KH EDVHOLQHV RI WKH PDLQ YDULDEOHV ZHUH DGMXVWHG
PDWHV ZKLOH QHJDWLYH YDOXHV RI Im determine dry ZLWKWKHDQRPDOLHVSURMHFWHGLQWKHVWXG\DUHDWKURXJK
FOLPDWHV WKH UDQJHV DQG FODVVL¿FDWLRQ RI W\SHV RI the HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-CM3 models, RCP 4.5
FOLPDWHVLQDFFRUGDQFHZLWKIm values are presented and RCP 8.5 scenarios, for the periods 2041-2060
LQDQQH[$ (focused on 2050) and 2061-2080 (focused on 2070),
68 J. E. Ospina-Noreña et al.

UHVSHFWLYHO\7KHVHVFHQDULRVDQGSHULRGVZHUHVHOHFW- Analysis of the values collected at the station en-


HGEHFDXVHWKH¿UVWUHVXOWVRIDSUHOLPLQDU\DVVHVVPHQW DEOHGXVWRGHWHUPLQHZK\WKHVWXG\DUHDKDVD7PD[,
RI /DQJ¶V LQGH[ VXJJHVWHG DQ RSWLPLVWLF VFHQDULR Tavg and Tmin of 32.5, 27.3 and 22.0 ºC, respectively
ZKLOHWKHVHFRQGUHVXOWVLPSOLHGDSHVVLPLVWLFVFHQDULR (Fig. 2a). Even though PCP is scarce (about 510.2 mm),
IRUWKHUHJLRQ7KHSURMHFWHGDQRPDOLHVZHUHUHWULHYHG evaporation and evapotranspiration are higher than
from the scenarios provided by WorldClim Global 2044.5 and 1521.1 mm, respectively (Fig. 2b) (the
&OLPDWH'DWDZLWKDPLQODWLWXGHDQGORQJLWXGH ODWWHU¿JXUHDFFRXQWVIRUH[WUHPHGHVHUWFRQGLWLRQV 
resolution equivalent to about 4.5 ™NPZKLFKDUH )LJXUH  VKRZV WKH PRQWKO\ EHKDYLRU RI WKH
available at KWWSZZZZRUOGFOLPRUJFPLS_2.5m. temperature, precipitation and evaporation variables
$IWHUZDUGV D UHDVVHVVPHQW RI RWKHU YDULDEOHV DQG DQDO\]HGLQWKHVWDWLRQ,WH[KLELWVWKHFXUUHQWPRQWKO\
SDUDPHWHUVLQYROYHGLQZDWHUEDODQFHDQGWKHFODVVL- values (baseline) of the main variables.
¿FDWLRQE\WKH7KRUQWKZDLWHPHWKRGZDVFRQGXFWHG As mentioned above and can be observed in Fig. 2
DQG 7DEOH ,, H[WUHPH FRQGLWLRQV H[LVW LQ DOO WKH
3. Analysis and results YDULDEOHV LQ WKH VWDWH RI *XDMLUD ZKLFK KDV GLUHFW
7KH VWDWLRQ VHOHFWHG ZDV 1D]DUHWK ORFDWHG DW ž LQÀXHQFH RQ DULG FRQGLWLRQV DFFHVV WR ZDWHU DQG
15'57'' W, 11º 42' 50'' N in the state of Guajira (Fig. 1). other parameters and variables related to the hydric
Studies in this zone are critical, since the potential resource and, certainly, on the activities and sectors
HIIHFWVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHFRXOGFHUWDLQO\H[DFHUEDWH that depend on it (particularly the primary sector, i.e.,
the already deficient conditions, threatening the DJULFXOWXUHOLYHVWRFNIRUHVWU\ 
QDWXUDOVXSSO\RIZDWHULWVDFFHVVLELOLW\DQGDOOWKH In Figure 2b it is evident that in the municipality
activities that depend on this resource, increasing the RI 8ULELD HYDSRUDWLRQ EDVLFDOO\ H[FHHGV E\ IDU WKH
JDSEHWZHHQWKHQDWXUDOVXSSO\DQGWKHFRQVWDQWO\ values of precipitation all year round.
JURZLQJ GHPDQG IRU WKH UHVRXUFH 7KLV ZRXOG LQ- 7DEOH ,,, VKRZV WKH UHVXOWV RI DSSO\LQJ WKH H[-
FUHDVHWKHLQGH[RISUHVVXUHRYHUWKHUHVRXUFHDQG SODLQHGSURFHGXUHWRFDOFXODWHZDWHUEDODQFHLQWKH
HQFRXUDJHRUOHDGWRFRQÀLFWV study area.
As mentioned above, the IL for the area selected ,WLVZRUWKQRWLQJWKDWLQWKHVWXG\DUHDSUHFLSLWD-
ZDV,L  ZKLFKFODVVL¿HVLWDVD tion is scarce and (7R has a high rate that leads to a
desert zone according to Lang’s climatic zones clas- KXPLGLW\GH¿FLWRIPPZKLFKFRPSUHKHQGV
VL¿FDWLRQ VHH7DEOH,  WKHSHULRGEHWZHHQ-DQXDU\DQG6HSWHPEHUZLWKRXW

N
LA GUAJIRA LA GUAJIRA
COLOMBIA
12º20'0''N

S Nazareth
12º0'0''N

Uribia
11º40'0''N

LA GUAJIRA
Uribia
Manaure

Manaure
Maicao
11º20'0''N

Río Hacha Legend


Dibulla Maicao
Weather station
Municipal boundary
Legend
State boundary
Municipal boundary

72º40'0''W 72º20'0''W 72º0'0''W 71º40'0''W 71º20'0''W

Fig. 1. Location of the study area (station analyzed, Nazareth).


Climate change in arid zones 69

a Tmax Tmin Tavg b PCP Ev

34
200
32

Water layer (mm)


Temperature (°C)

30 150
28
100
26

24
50
22

20 0
Fe ry

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Fe ry

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Se gus

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e
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ar

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Au

Au
br

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ct

ct
Ja

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pt

pt

ov

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N

D
Month Month

Fig. 2. (a) Monthly behavior of temperature at Uribia-Guajira. (b) Monthly behavior of precipitation and evaporation
at Uribia-Guajira.

7DEOH,,0RQWKO\YDOXHVEDVHOLQH -DQXDU\>-@WR'HFHPEHU>'@

V/month J F M A M Jn Ju A S O N D Sum/avg
TPD[ (ºC) 29.7 30.7 31.3 32.8 32.7 33.3 33.5 34.2 34.4 33.6 31.9 31.3 32.5
Tmin (ºC) 21.1 21.2 20.8 22.4 22.7 23.3 23.4 21.9 22.8 21.9 21.6 20.6 22.0
Tavg (ºC) 25.8 26.0 26.5 27.0 27.6 28.0 28.0 28.4 28.6 28.1 27.3 26.2 27.3
PCP (mm) 18.7 9.1 9.7 22.1 37.2 13.3 7.0 13.1 44.3 146.2 134.8 54.7 510.2
RH (%) 81.5 80.6 80.7 80.8 81.0 80.1 80.1 80.1 80.9 83.2 84.1 82.9 81.3
Ev (mm) 113 155 182 173 193 212 214 221 206 155 121 102 2044.5

V: variable.

7DEOH,,,&XUUHQWZDWHUEDODQFHDWWKH1D]DUHWKVWDWLRQ -DQXDU\>-@WR'HFHPEHU>'@ 

V/month J F M A M Jn Ju A S O N D Total
PCP 18.7 9.1 9.7 22.1 37.2 13.3 7.0 13.1 44,3 146.2 134.8 54.7 510.2
ET0 105.5 111.5 131.8 122.4 131.4 140.5 151.3 155.0 142.2 125.5 106.3 97.9 1521.1
ǻ –86.8 –102.4 –122.1 –100.3 –94.2 –127.2 –144.3 –141.9 –97.8 20.7 28.5 –43.1
R Sto 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.7 49.2 6.0
Def 80.7 102.4 122.1 100.3 94.2 127.2 144.3 141.9 97.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1010.9
([F 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
ǻSto –6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0,0 20.7 28.5 –43.1
ETa 24.7 9.1 9.7 22.1 37.2 13.3 7.0 13.1 44,3 125.5 106.3 97.9 510.2
ETa/ET0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.05 0.1 0,3 1.0 1.0 1.0
R or U U R R U

V: variable.

H[FHVV7KHUHLVRQO\DZDWHUUHSODFHPHQWUDWHRI 2FWREHUWR'HFHPEHUZRXOGEHDSSURSULDWHIRUWKH
20.7 mm and 28.5 mm in October and November, GHYHORSPHQWRIVRPHFURSV7KHVHDVSHFWVFRQ¿UP
respectively; 43.1 mm are used in December and WKHUHVXOWVRIWKHFRPSDULVRQEHWZHHQ3&3(YDQG
6.0 mm in January. According to the (7D/(7R (7R (Figs. 2b and 3) and to the observations made
values presented in Table III, only the period from using IL.
70 J. E. Ospina-Noreña et al.

Def PCP ETo ETa RIDQ\W\SHRIFURSV/LNHZLVHWKH\DOORZOHDGLQJ


160 activities such as management of hydrographic
140 basins, irrigation programs, production forecast,
120 FOLPDWHFODVVL¿FDWLRQFURSV]RQLQJDPRQJRWKHUV
Water layer (mm)

100

80
 &DOFXODWLRQ RI WKH ZDWHU EDODQFH SDUDPHWHUV
under climate change conditions
60
The baseline of the main variables involved in the
40
FDOFXODWLRQ RI ZDWHU EDODQFH ZDV DGMXVWHG ZLWK
20
the anomalies projected in the study area through the
0 HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-CM3 models, RCP 4.5
and RCP 8.5 scenarios, for the periods 2041-2060
y

ch

ril

ay

ne

st

O er

ov er

ec er

r
be
ar

ar

l
Ju
Ap

gu

b
ob

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ar

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Au
br

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(focused on 2050) and 2061-2080 (focused on 2070),


Ja

Fe

pt
Se

Month respectively.
7DEOH 9 VKRZV WKH DGMXVWHG EDVHOLQHV QDPHO\
)LJ  &XUUHQW ZDWHU EDODQFH PXQLFLSDOLW\ RI 8ULELD future scenarios for TPD[, Tavg, Tmin, PCP and RH.
Guajira.
These scenarios suggest an annual reduction of
LQSUHFLSLWDWLRQZLWKLQWKHVWXG\DUHDIRUWKH
)LJXUHVKRZVWKHEHKDYLRURI3&3(7R(7D HadGEM2-ES model (RCP 4.5, period 2041-2060),
'HIDQG([F[RIZDWHULQWKHVWXG\DUHDDVDUHVXOW and 11.0% for the GFDL-CM3 model (RCP 8.5,
RIZDWHUEDODQFHDQDO\VLVXQGHUWKHFXUUHQWFOLPDWLF period 2061-2080), moving from 510.2 to 498.2 and
conditions. 510.2 to 454.2 mm, respectively. RH presents chang-
,Q)LJXUHWKHDUHDEHWZHHQWKH(7R and Eta lines HVRQDPRQWKO\EDVLVDV7DEOH9VKRZVUHGXFLQJ
PHDQVDGH¿FLW3&3DERYH(7D corresponds to the WKHDQQXDODYHUDJHE\ZLWK the HadGEM2-ES
VWRUDJHLQUHVHUYHSOXVH[FHVV(7D over PCP means PRGHOIRUWKH¿UVWSHULRGPRYLQJIURPWR
a utilization of the soil reserve. LQ WKH VHFRQG SHULRG ZLWK WKH *)'/&0 PRGHO
$ FOLPDWH FODVVL¿FDWLRQ E\ WKH 7KRUQWKZDLWH The average annual relative humidity reaches a value
PHWKRG ZDV FRQGXFWHG WDNLQJ LQWR DFFRXQW WKH of 65.5%, indicating a reduction of about 15.8% in
UHVXOWVLQ7DEOH,,,(TV  DQGDQQH[HV$WR FRPSDULVRQZLWKWKHFXUUHQWVLWXDWLRQ
$ZKLFKGHPRQVWUDWHGWKDWXQGHUFXUUHQWFRQGL- Regarding the average annual temperature, an
WLRQVWKHVWXG\DUHDFODVVL¿HVDVDQDULG]RQHZLWK LQFUHDVHRIž&ZLWKWKH+DG*(0(6PRGHOLV
OLPLWHG RU QR H[FHVV RI ZDWHU PHJDWKHUPDO DQG projected in the study area for the period 2041-2060
ZLWKDORZFRQFHQWUDWLRQRIWKHUPDOHI¿FLHQF\,WV 5&3 DQGRIž&ZLWKWKH*)'/&0PRGHO
V\PEROLFGHVFULSWLRQZRXOGEH(G$¶D¶ VHHDQQH[HV for the period 2061-2080 (RCP 8.5). In this regard,
A1 to A4), supporting the condition initially found IDEAM (2015b) presents results for the average
ZKHQXVLQJ,L. HQVHPEOHVFHQDULRZKHUHLWLVVXJJHVWHGWKDWE\WKH
7DEOH,9VKRZVWKHYDOXHVREWDLQHGIRUWKHLQGH[HV end of the century temperature in the state of Gua-
UHODWHGWRFOLPDWHFODVVL¿FDWLRQE\WKH7KRUQWKZDLWH jira could increase 2.3 ºC on average compared to
method. current values. IDEAM considers that the Alta and
Media Guajira could have the highest increases, of
7DEOH,9,QGH[HVIRUFOLPDWHFODVVL¿FDWLRQ
DSSUR[LPDWHO\ž&FRYHULQJWKHPXQLFLSDOLWLHVRI
,QGH[ Value ,QGH[ Value Uribia, Manaure and Maicao.
In terms of precipitation, the state of Guajira could
Ih ([F(7R ‡ 0.0 Im = Ih–Ia –66.5
have reductions of up to 20% on average by the end
,D 'HI(7R ‡ 66.5 EC=((7Rv/(7R ‡ 29.5
of the century. In particular, to the south of the state
and in the municipalities of Rioacha and Dibulla the
All the factors so far analyzed are of great impor- reductions could vary from 30 to 40% in relation to
WDQFHDVDOUHDG\PHQWLRQHGZKHQSODQQLQJK\GUDXOLF the current value (IDEAM, 2015b). Similarly, IDE-
LQIUDVWUXFWXUHZRUNVVRZLQJVDQGJURZLQJDFWLYLWLHV $0ZDUQVWKDWIRUWKHSHULRGV
Climate change in arid zones 71

7DEOH9)XWXUHFOLPDWLFVFHQDULRV 1D]DUHWKVWDWLRQ-DQXDU\>-@WR'HFHPEHU>'@ 

HadGEM2-ES, RCP4.5, focused on 2050


V/month J F M A M Jn Ju A S O N D Sum/avg
PCP 18.7 9.1 9.7 20.1 46.2 15.3 6.0 12.1 41.3 126.2 137.8 55.7 498.2
TPD[ 31.5 32.7 33.2 34.5 34.3 35.0 35.2 35.9 36.3 35.4 33.7 33.1 34.2
Tmin 23.0 23.3 22.7 24.2 24.4 25.1 25.2 23.7 24.6 23.8 23.6 22.5 23.8
Tavg 27.3 28.0 27.9 29.4 29.3 30.0 30.2 29.8 30.5 29.6 28.6 27.8 29.0
RH 73.2 71.6 72.3 73.1 73.8 72.6 72.5 72.6 72.8 74.9 75.5 74.5 73.3
GFDL-CM3, RCP8.5, focused on 2070
V/month J F M A M Jn Ju A S O N D Sum/avg
PCP 19.7 10.1 10.7 25.1 48.2 30.3 9.0 11.1 28.3 100.2 106.8 54.7 454.2
TPD[ 33.4 34.5 34.9 36.3 36.4 37.0 37.0 38.2 38.7 37.7 35.8 35.0 36.2
Tmin 24.9 25.0 24.5 26.1 26.6 27.3 27.1 25.9 26.9 25.6 25.3 24.4 25.8
Tavg 29.2 29.8 29.7 31.2 31.5 32.1 32.0 32.1 32.8 31.7 30.5 29.7 31.0
RH 65.6 64.7 65.4 65.9 65.4 64.5 65.4 63.9 63.8 66.5 67.5 66.9 65.5

and 2071-2100, increases in temperature could be RUQRH[FHVVRIZDWHUPHJDWKHUPDODQGZLWKDORZ


of 0.9, 1.6 and 2.3 ºC, and decreases in precipitation FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI WKHUPDO HI¿FLHQF\ (G$¶D¶  DF-
could be of about 14.5, 16.57 and 20.02%, respec- FRUGLQJWRWKHFKDQJHVSURMHFWHGE\WKHWZRPRGHOV
WLYHO\ ,'($0 E $W WKLV SRLQW LW LV ZRUWK EXW FRQGLWLRQV EHFRPH PRUH GH¿FLHQW RYHU WLPH
mentioning that even though a reduction in precipi- (see Tables IV and VI).
tation is relatively trivial, the increase in temperature 7DEOH 9, VKRZV WKH YDOXHV REWDLQHG IRU IXWXUH
UHDFKHVVXEVWDQWLDOYDOXHVZKLFKFRXOGVLJQL¿FDQWO\ LQGH[HV UHODWHG WR FOLPDWH FODVVL¿FDWLRQ XVLQJ WKH
impact and transform the region, especially because 7KRUQWKZDLWH PHWKRG WDNLQJ LQWR DFFRXQW WKH
currently precipitation in the study area is rare and changes projected for the HadGEM2-ES model, pe-
temperature is very high. riod 2041-2060 (RCP 4.5), and GFDL-CM3, period
/DQJ¶VLQGH[VKRZVDUHGXFWLRQIURPWKHFXUUHQW 2061-2080 (RCP 8.5).
18.7 to 17.0 in the HadGEM2-ES model for the period 7DEOHV9,,DQG9,,,SUHVHQWWKHZDWHUEDODQFHUH-
 5&3 DQGWRZLWKWKHFKDQJHV sults for the periods analyzed, considering changes in
projected in the GFDL-CM3 model for the period 2061- the climatic variables projected for the HadGEM2-ES
2080 (RCP 8.5). This suggests that, according to the and GFDL-CM3 models.
projections found, current conditions in the study area When comparing the results from tables III,
ZLOOEHH[DFHUEDWHGZKLFKZLOOFKDQJHLWVFODVVL¿FDWLRQ 9,, DQG 9,,, LW LV HYLGHQW WKDW H[SHFWHG FOLPDWLF
to a desert zone as times goes by (Tables I and V). FKDQJHV H[DFHUEDWH WKH GH¿FLHQW FRQGLWLRQV LQ WKH
)XUWKHUPRUH WKH IXWXUH FOLPDWH FODVVL¿FDWLRQ study area, considerably increasing (7R and Def as
E\WKH7KRUQWKZDLWHPHWKRGDVZHOODVE\,L, VKRZ WLPHJRHVE\7KLVLVZK\(7R varies from 1521.1 to
WKDWWKHVWXG\DUHDLVVWLOODQDULG]RQHZLWKOLPLWHG PPZLWKWKHFKDQJHVSURMHFWHGE\WKH+DG-

7DEOH9,,QGH[HVDQGIXWXUHFOLPDWHFODVVL¿FDWLRQ

HadGEM2-ES, RCP4.5, focused on 2050 GFDL-CM3, RCP8.5, focused on 2070


,QGH[ Value &ODVVL¿FDWLRQ ,QGH[ Value &ODVVL¿FDWLRQ
Ih  ([F(7R ‡ 0.0 Ih  ([F(7R ‡ 0.0
,D  'HI(7R ‡ 70.7 ,D  'HI(7R ‡ 77.7
Im = Ih-Ia –70.7 EdA’a’ Im = Ih-Ia –77.7 EdA’a’
EC = (ETov(7R ‡ 29.5 EC = (ETov(7R ‡ 29.8
72 J. E. Ospina-Noreña et al.

7DEOH9,,:DWHUEDODQFH5&3IRFXVHGRQ 1D]DUHWKVWDWLRQ-DQXDU\>-@WR'HFHPEHU>'@ 

HadGEM2-ES
V/month J F M A M Jn Ju A S O N D Total
PCP 18.7 9.1 9.7 20.1 46.2 15.3 6.0 12.1 41.3 126.2 137.8 55.7 498.2
ETo 114.9 127.9 150.2 136.7 146.9 157.5 168.1 172.6 160.3 139.8 118.6 105.8 1699.4
ǻ –96.3 –118.8 –140.5 –116.6 –100.7 –142.2 –162.1 –160.4 –119.0 –13.6 19.2 –50.1
R_Sto 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.2 0.0
Def 96.3 118.8 140.5 116.6 100.7 142.2 162.1 160.4 119.0 13.6 0.0 30.9 1201.1
([F 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
ǻSto 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.2 –19.2
ETa 18.7 9.1 9.7 20.1 46.2 15.3 6.0 12.1 41.3 126.2 118.6 74.9 498.2
ETa/ETo 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.04 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.7
R or U R U

7DEOH9,,,:DWHUEDODQFH5&3IRFXVHGRQ 1D]DUHWKVWDWLRQ-DQXDU\>-@WR'HFHPEHU>'@ 

GFDL-CM3
V/month J F M A M Jn Ju A S O N D Total
PCP 19.7 10.1 10.7 25.1 48.2 30.3 9.0 11.1 28.3 100.2 106.8 54.7 454.2
ETo 123.9 141.4 166.0 150.4 166.4 177.4 185.2 194.6 182.3 156.5 131.3 113.4 1888.8
ǻ –104.2 –131.3 –155.3 –125.3 –118.2 –147.2 –176.2 –183.5 –153.9 –56.3 –24.5 –58.7
R_Sto 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Def 104.2 131.3 155.3 125.3 118.2 147.2 1762 183.5 153.9 56.3 24.5 58.7 1434.6
([F 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
ǻSto 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
ETa 19.7 10.1 10.7 25.1 48.2 30.3 9.0 11.1 28.3 100.2 106.8 54.7 454.2
ETa/ETo 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.05 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.5
R or U

GEM2-ES model for the year in focus 2050, and to analysis only October, November and December
PPZLWKWKH*)'/&0PRGHOIRUWKH\HDU ZRXOGEHDSSURSULDWHWRGHYHORSVRPHFURSVWKDWGR
LQIRFXVZKLFKUHSUHVHQWVDQLQFUHDVHRI QRWUHTXLUHPXFKZDWHU)LQDOO\ZLWKWKH*)'/&0
DQGUHVSHFWLYHO\/LNHZLVH'HILQFUHDVHVE\ PRGHO  WKHDSSURSULDWHPRQWKVZRXOGEHRQO\
LQWKH¿UVWDQDO\VLVSHULRGDQGE\LQWKH October and November.
VHFRQGSHULRGZKLOH3&3VDWLV¿HVSDUWRIWKH(7R, 7DEOH,;VXPPDUL]HVWKHDQQXDOFKDQJHVH[SHFWHG
becoming (7DZLWKDUHGXFWLRQRIDQG for the scenarios analyzed.
in the HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-CM3 models for Figures 4 and 5 illustrate the behavior of monthly
WKH¿UVWDQGVHFRQGDQDO\VLVSHULRGVUHVSHFWLYHO\ PCP, (70, (7aDQG'HIZLWKLQWKHVWXG\DUHDVUHVXOW-
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LWFDQEHREVHUYHGWKDWZLWKWKHHVWLPDWHGFKDQJHV change conditions.
in the HadGEM2-ES model (RCP 4.5, year in focus According to the results found, provisional crops
2050), only during November there is soil moisture VXFKDVFRUQVRUJKXPFRWWRQPHORQZDWHUPHORQ
UHSODFHPHQWHTXLYDOHQWWRPP ZKLFKLVXVHG and squash; permanent crops such as avocado, ba-
LQ 'HFHPEHU  ZKLOH ZLWK WKH HVWLPDWHG FKDQJHV nana, lemon, orange, coconut, lulo, mango, among
in the GFDL-CM3 model (RCP8.5, year in focus others, reported in the study area by the Red de
 WKHUHDUHQRPRQWKVLQZKLFKZDWHULQWKHVRLO Información y Comunicación del Sector Agropec-
LVUHSODFHG,QDFFRUGDQFHZLWKWKH(7a/(70 values uario Colombiano (Information and Communication
VKRZQLQ7DEOHV9,,DQG9,,,LQWKH¿UVWSHULRGRI 1HWZRUN RI WKH &RORPELDQ$JUROLYHVWRFN 6HFWRU
Climate change in arid zones 73

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V Current HadGEM2-ES, focused on 2050 GFDL-CM3, focused on 2070


(mm)
RCP_4.5 % change RCP_8.5 % change
PCP 510.2 498.2 –2.4 454.2 –11.0
ETo 1521.1 1699.4 11.7 1888.8 24.2
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Def PCP ETo ETa


Moreover, the production, performance and qual-
180 ity of the products cultivated using irrigation systems
160 HJULFH ZLOOEHDIIHFWHGE\WKHLQFUHDVLQJO\GH¿-
140 cient conditions of the municipality, unless some ad-
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100 SODQQLQJRISURGXFWVDQGWKHSURVSHFWVRZLQJDUHD
80 even a conversion of products should be considered.
60 Also, progress should be made in investigations
40 FRQFHUQLQJWKHDQDO\VLVRIWKHYLDELOLW\RIUDLQZDWHU
20 harvesting for those purposes.
0 IDEAM (2015b) suggests the main effects could
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to the projected reductions in precipitations. The
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GEM2-ES, RCP4.5, year in focus 2050). tinue to be one of the main effects on the study area,
affecting the health sector due to nutritional factors
Def PCP ETo ETa related to food security.
200
180
160
4. Conclusions and recommendations
140
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20 LPSDFWV RI H[SHFWHG FOLPDWH FKDQJHV SUHYHQWLQJ
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proposals.
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Month different productive uses and consumption (domestic,


industrial, agricultural and for other productive sec-
Fig. 5. Water balance, Nazareth-Guajira station (GF-
WRUV ZLOOLQGHHGEHDIIHFWHGFDXVLQJDQGLQFUHDVLQJ
DL-CM3, RCP8.5, year in focus 2070).
substantial economic and social impacts, that could
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AGRONET), could be adversely affected by the RIZDWHU
decrease in precipitation and moisture of soil, and The high rates of (7R and the reduction in pre-
the increase in temperature and (7R. cipitation and soil moisture can restrict agricultural
74 J. E. Ospina-Noreña et al.

activities, specially irrigated crops, resulting in the %DWHV%&=:.XQG]HZLF]6:XDQG-33DOXWLNRI


FURSVORZRUQXOOSHUIRUPDQFHDQGTXDOLW\/LNHZLVH (Eds.), 2008. Climate change and Water. Technical
WKHDTXLIHUUHFKDUJHDQGZDWHUTXDOLW\WKHUHRIPD\ paper. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
EH QHJDWLYHO\ DIIHFWHG VLQFH WKH LQ¿OWUDWLRQ UDWHV Geneva, 210 pp.
ZRXOGEHQXOO Döll P., 2009. Vulnerability to the impact of climate
When comparing the baseline vs. future scenarios, FKDQJHRQUHQHZDEOHJURXQGZDWHUUHVRXUFHVDJORE-
FOLPDWHFODVVL¿FDWLRQVGRQRWSUHVHQWFKDQJHVVLQFH al-scale assessment. Environ. Res. Lett. 4, 035006,
WKH PRLVWXUH LQGH[ YDOXHV YDU\ ZLWKLQ WKH ZDUPHU doi:10.1088/1748-9326/4/3/035006.
DQGGULHUFODVVSUHFOXGLQJWKHLVRODWLRQRIVLJQL¿FDQW FAO, 2009. Evapotranspiración del cultivo. Guías para
FKDQJHVLQWKHFODVVL¿FDWLRQUHVXOWV+RZHYHULWLV la determinación de los requerimientos de agua de los
FOHDUWKDWIRUHDFKVFHQDULRWKHPRLVWXUHLQGH[ Im) cultivos. Organización de las Naciones Unidas para la
decreases, enhancing the class characteristics. Agricultura y la Alimentación, Roma, 322 pp.
It is recommended to conduct research proposals )X*63&KDUOHVDQG-<X$FULWLFDORYHUYLHZRI
DQG WR FUHDWH UDLQZDWHU KDUYHVW SURMHFWV DV ZHOO DV pan evaporation trends over the last 50 years. Climatic
HPSOR\LQJZDWHUHI¿FLHQWFXOWLYDWLRQV\VWHPVLQWKHUH- Change 97, 193-214, doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9579-1.
JLRQLQDFFRUGDQFHZLWKWKHQHZFOLPDWHFODVVL¿FDWLRQ IDEAM, 2010. Estudio nacional del agua 2010. Instituto
or to enhance its climatic characteristics, in order to de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales.
LPSOHPHQWVWUDWHJLHVWRZDUGVWKHDGDSWDWLRQWRFOLPDWH Bogotá, 421 pp.
FKDQJHDQGWRWDFNOHWKHSRWHQWLDOQHJDWLYHLPSDFWV IDEAM, PNUD, MADS, DNP, CANCILLERÍA, 2015a.
on the sectors and activities that could result affected. Nuevos escenarios de cambio climático para Co-
3URYLGHGWKDWLUULJDWLRQV\VWHPVZRUNHI¿FLHQWO\ ORPELD+HUUDPLHQWDVFLHQWt¿FDVSDUDOD
DQGFDQVXSSO\WKHFXUUHQWZDWHUGHPDQGIRUFURSVDG- toma de decisiones, nivel nacional-regional. Tercera
GLWLRQDOZDWHUDQGWKHDGMXVWPHQWVUHTXLUHGWRFRYHUDW comunicación nacional de cambio climático. Bogotá,
OHDVWWKHSURMHFWHGGH¿FLWJURZWK HTXLYDOHQWWRDERXW 15 pp.
 IRU WKH \HDU LQ IRFXV  >+DG*(0(6@ IDEAM, PNUD, MADS, DNP, CANCILLERÍA, 2015b.
DQGIRUWKH\HDULQIRFXV>*)'/&0@  Nuevos escenarios de cambio climático para Colombia
should be considered for their future functioning. +HUUDPLHQWDVFLHQWt¿FDVSDUDODWRPDGH
'LIIHUHQWPRGHOVZHUHXVHGIRUWZRSHULRGVVLQFH decisiones. Tercera comunicación nacional de cambio
WKH\ZHUHVHOHFWHGIURPDUDQJHRIIXWXUHVFHQDULRVIRU climático. Bogotá, 60 pp.
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ZLWKDQ5&3RIE\ZKLOHWKH*)'/&0 Cuarto Informe de Evaluación del Grupo Intergu-
PRGHO ZLWK DQ 5&3 RI  E\  UHSUHVHQWHG EHUQDPHQWDOGH([SHUWRVVREUHHO&DPELR&OLPiWLFR
WKHPRVWSHVVLPLVWLFFRQGLWLRQ,QRWKHUZRUGVWKH Ginebra, 104 pp.
study presents the most and least adverse situations, IPCC, 2013. Cambio climático 2013. Bases físicas. Resu-
according to the different scenarios studied. men para responsables de políticas. Contribución del
Grupo de Trabajo I al Quinto Informe de Evaluación
Acknowledgments GHO *UXSR ,QWHUJXEHUQDPHQWDO GH ([SHUWRV VREUH HO
$XWKRUVZRXOGOLNHWRWKDQNWKH3URJUDPD1DFLRQDO Cambio Climático. Ginebra, 34 pp.
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gación, la Creación y la Innovación en Posgrados and vulnerability. Part A: Global and sectorial aspects.
de la Universidad de Colombia 2013-2015, for the &RQWULEXWLRQRI:RUNLQJ*URXS,,WRWKH)LIWK$VVHVV-
¿QDQFLDOVXSSRUWSURYLGHGIRUWKHLQYHVWLJDWLRQGH- ment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
velopment and the human talent training. &KDQJH &%)LHOG95%DUURV'-'RNNHQ.-
Mach, M. D. Mastrandrea, T. E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee,
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-LPpQH]&LVQHURV%(72NL1:$UQHOO*%HQLWR- 0F9LFDU757*9DQ1LHO0/5RGHULFN/7/L
*&RJOH\3'|OO7-LDQJDQG660ZDNDOLOD X. G. Mo, N. E. Zimmermann and D. R. Schmatz,
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VHFWRULDODVSHFWV&RQWULEXWLRQRI:RUNLQJ*URXS,,WR PRUH UDSLGO\ DW KLJKHU HOHYDWLRQV WKDQ ORZHU HOHYD-
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76 J. E. Ospina-Noreña et al.

Annexes
$0RLVWXUHLQGH[ ,m)

Humid climates (Im > 0) Dry climates (Im < 0)


Value Symbol Denomination Value Symbol Denomination
Im > 100 A Perhumid •,m > –33,3) C1 Dry subhumid
•,m > 80 B4 Very humid ±•,m > –60) D Semiarid
•,m > 60 B3 Humid ±•,m > –60) E Arid
•,m > 40 B2 Moderately humid
•,m > 20 B1 Slightly humid
•,m > 0 C2 Moist subhumid

A2. Seasonal variation of the effective humidity

,QGH[HVRIH[FHVVRIKXPLGLW\ ,h) for C1, D and E ,QGH[HVRIDULGLW\ ,a) for A, B and C2 climates
Range Symbol Denomination Range Symbol Denomination
0 < Ia < 10 d /LPLWHGRUQRH[FHVV 0 < Ia < 16.7 r /LWWOHRUQRODFNRI
RIZDWHU ZDWHU
10 < Ia < 20 s 0RGHUDWHH[FHVVRI 16.7 < Ia < 33.3 s 0RGHUDWHODFNRIZDWHULQ
ZDWHULQZLQWHU summer
10 < Ia < 20 Z 0RGHUDWHH[FHVVRI 16.7 < Ia < 33.3 Z 0RGHUDWHODFNRIZDWHULQ
ZDWHULQVXPPHU ZLQWHU
Ia > 20 s2 /DUJHH[FHVVRI Ia > 33.3 s2 &RQVLGHUDEOHODFNRI
ZDWHULQZLQWHU ZDWHULQVXPPHU
Ia > 20 Z2 /DUJHH[FHVVRI Ia > 33.3 Z2 &RQVLGHUDEOHODFNRI
ZDWHULQVXPPHU ZDWHULQZLQWHU

$,QGH[RIWKHUPDOHI¿FLHQF\

(7R Range (mm) Acronym Climatic type (7R Range (mm) Acronym Climatic type
(7o > 1140 A’ Megathermal 427 < (7R” C’2 Second mesothermal
997 < (7R” B’4 Fourth mesothermal 285 < (7R” C’1 First mesothermal
885 < (7R” B’3 Third mesothermal 142 < (7R” D’ Tundra
712 < (7R” B’2 Second mesothermal ETo < 142 E’ Glacial
570 < (7R” B’1 First mesothermal

$7KHUPDOHI¿FLHQF\FRQFHQWUDWLRQLQVXPPHU

EC (%) Acronym Climatic type EC (%) Acronym Climatic type


(concentration) (concentration)
EC < 48 a’ /RZ !(&• b’1 Moderate
!(&• b’4 Moderate !(&• c’2 High
!(&• b’3 Moderate !(&• c’1 High
!(&• b’2 Moderate EC > 88 d’ Very high