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Analysis of the water balance under regional scenarios of climate change for
arid zones of Colombia

Jesús Efrén OSPINA-NOREÑA,a* Carlos Alberto DOMÍNGUEZ-RAMÍREZ,a

Emel Enrique VEGA-RODRÍGUEZ,b Aquiles Enrique DARGHAN-CONTRERAS,a
and Luis Ernesto RODRÍGUEZ-MOLANOa

a
Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias, Departamento de Agronomía, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Carrera 30 núm.
(GL¿FLR%RJRWi'&&RORPELD
b
)DFXOWDG GH &LHQFLDV 8QLYHUVLGDG 1DFLRQDO GH &RORPELD &DUUHUD  Q~P  (GL¿FLR  %RJRWi ' &
Colombia
*
Corresponding author; jeospinan@unal.edu.co

Received: October 9, 2016; accepted: December 7, 2016

RESUMEN
En este trabajo se analizan en detalle los parámetros implicados en el balance hídrico. Se consideran las
condiciones actuales y el cambio climático en una zona representativa de clima árido en Colombia: la región
GHVpUWLFDGH8ULELDHQHOGHSDUWDPHQWRGH/D*XDMLUD&RQHVWH¿QVHVHOHFFLRQDURQDOJXQDVHVWDFLRQHVFOL-
matológicas que, de acuerdo con los valores registrados de temperatura y precipitación, pueden considerarse
representativas de áreas climáticas áridas o desérticas según el índice de Lang (PCP/Tavg). Se construyó una
línea de referencia a partir de los registros históricos de precipitación y temperatura y se analizó su comporta-
miento. Los datos de las estaciones se obtuvieron de la base de datos del Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología
y Estudios Ambientales de Colombia. Después de calcular los escenarios de referencia, se estimó el balance
hídrico actual tomando en cuenta las variables originales e incluyendo, cuando fue necesario, nuevos paráme-
WURVSDUDHOFiOFXORGHODHFXDFLyQVLPSOL¿FDGDGHFRQWLQXLGDG(ODQiOLVLVLQFOX\ySDUiPHWURVFRPRSRWHQFLDO
GHHYDSRWUDQVSLUDFLyQKXPHGDGGHOVXHORDOPDFHQDPLHQWRRUHFDUJD\VXVFDPELRVGp¿FLW\H[FHVRKtGULFR
escorrentía, periodos de recarga y uso del agua. Las anomalías de temperatura y precipitación se calcularon
tomando en cuenta los nuevos escenarios climáticos “trayectorias representativas de concentración” para
diferentes periodos (de corto y largo plazo). Con las anomalías encontradas se ajustó la línea de referencia
SDUDODVYDULDEOHVPHQFLRQDGDVDQWHULRUPHQWH\ORVSDUiPHWURVDVRFLDGRVVHDQDOL]DURQHQHOFRQWH[WRGHO
EDODQFHKtGULFR(QHVFHQDULRVGHFDPELRFOLPiWLFRHOEDODQFHKtGULFRSUR\HFWDXQDSRVLEOHLQWHQVL¿FDFLyQ
de las condiciones desérticas en la región de Uribia-Guajira, ya que se espera una disminución en el índice
de Lang de su valor actual de 18.7 (desértico) a 17 en 2050 y 14.5 en 2070, como resultado de una reducción
de las precipitaciones (2.4 y 11%) y un incremento de la temperatura anual promedio de alrededor de 1.7
ºC con el modelo HadGEM2-ES para el periodo 2041-2060 y de 3.7 ºC con el modelo GFDL-CM3 para el
SHULRGR(VWRVHFRPSUXHEDPHGLDQWHODFODVL¿FDFLyQFOLPiWLFDGH7KRUQWKZDLWHTXHWLSL¿FDHO
iUHDGHHVWXGLRFRPRXQD]RQDiULGDFRQUHFXUVRVKtGULFRVOLPLWDGRV\VLQH[FHGHQWHV(VWHGp¿FLWSRGUtD
acarrear graves consecuencias ambientales, problemas sociales y declinación de la productividad agrícola e
industrial de la región.

ABSTRACT
7KLVZRUNGLVFXVVHVLQGHWDLOWKHSDUDPHWHUVLQYROYHGLQZDWHUEDODQFH7KHDQDO\VLVLVSHUIRUPHGE\FRQ-
sidering the current conditions and climate change in a climatic zone that represents the arid regions of Co-
lombia: The municipality of Uribia (desert) in the state of La Guajira. For this purpose, some climatological
VWDWLRQVZKLFKE\WKHLUUHSRUWHGYDOXHVRIWHPSHUDWXUHDQGSUHFLSLWDWLRQFDQEHFRQVLGHUHGUHSUHVHQWDWLYH
RIWKHDULGRUGHVHUWFOLPDWLF]RQHVDFFRUGLQJWRWKH/DQJ¶VLQGH[3&37avgZHUHVHOHFWHG7KHQZLWK

‹8QLYHUVLGDG1DFLRQDO$XWyQRPDGH0p[LFR&HQWURGH&LHQFLDVGHOD$WPyVIHUD
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
64 J. E. Ospina-Noreña et al.

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DQGLWVEHKDYLRUDQDO\]HG7KHVWDWLRQGDWDZHUHREWDLQHGIURPWKHGDWDEDVHRIWKH,QVWLWXWRGH+LGURORJtD
Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales (Institute of Hidrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies) of
&RORPELD$IWHUHVWLPDWLQJWKHEDVHOLQHVFHQDULRVWKHFXUUHQWZDWHUEDODQFHRQWKHVLWHZDVFDOFXODWHGE\
WDNLQJLQWRDFFRXQWWKHRULJLQDOYDULDEOHVDQGLQFOXGLQJQHZSDUDPHWHUVLIQHFHVVDU\IRUWKHFDOFXODWLRQRI
WKHVLPSOL¿HGFRQWLQXLW\HTXDWLRQ7KHDQDO\VLVLQFOXGHGSDUDPHWHUVVXFKDVSRWHQWLDODQGDFWXDOHYDSRWUDQV-
SLUDWLRQPRLVWXUHRIVRLOVWRUDJHRUUHFKDUJHDQGWKHLUFKDQJHVZDWHUGH¿FLWDQGH[FHVVUXQRIISHULRGVRI
UHFKDUJHDQGZDWHUXVH$QRPDOLHVLQWHPSHUDWXUHVž&DQGSUHFLSLWDWLRQZHUHFDOFXODWHGE\WDNLQJLQWR
DFFRXQWWKHQHZFOLPDWHVFHQDULRV³UHSUHVHQWDWLYHFRQFHQWUDWLRQSDWKZD\V´IRUGLIIHUHQWSHULRGVVKRUWDQG
ORQJWHUP:LWKWKHDQRPDOLHVLGHQWL¿HGWKHEDVHOLQHIRUWKHDERYHPHQWLRQHGYDULDEOHVZDVDGMXVWHG$JDLQ
WKHDVVRFLDWHGSDUDPHWHUVZHUHDQDO\]HGDQGGLVFXVVHGLQWKHFRQWH[WRIZDWHUEDODQFH,QFOLPDWHFKDQJH
VFHQDULRVWKHZDWHUEDODQFHSURMHFWVDSURVSHFWLYHH[DFHUEDWLRQRIGHVHUWFRQGLWLRQVLQWKH8ULELD*XDMLUD
UHJLRQVLQFHDGHFUHDVHLQWKH/DQJ¶VLQGH[IURPLWVFXUUHQWYDOXHRIGHVHUWWRLQDQG
LQLVH[SHFWHGDVDFRQVHTXHQFHRIDGHFUHDVHLQSUHFLSLWDWLRQDQGDQGDQLQFUHDVHLQDQ-
QXDOWHPSHUDWXUHRIDERXWž&ZLWKWKH+DG*(0(6PRGHOIRUWKHSHULRGDQGž&ZLWK
WKH*)'/&0PRGHOIRUWKHSHULRG7KLVFDQEHYHUL¿HGE\PHDQVRIWKH7KRUQWKZDLWHFOLPDWH
FODVVL¿FDWLRQZKLFKFDWHJRUL]HVWKHDUHDRIVWXG\DVDQDULG]RQHZLWKOLPLWHGDQGQRH[FHVVRIZDWHU7KLV
GH¿FLWFRXOGOHDGWRVHULRXVHQYLURQPHQWDOFRQVHTXHQFHVVRFLDOSUREOHPVDQGDGHFOLQHLQWKHLQGXVWULDODQG
agricultural productivity of the zone.

Keywords:&LPDWHFKDQJHZDWHUEDODQFHFOLPDWLFVFHQDULRVDULG]RQHV

1. Introduction due to higher temperatures, and an increase in ac-

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC, 2013), the increase of greenhouse
JDVHVLQWKHDWPRVSKHUHPD\KDYHDQLQÀXHQFHRQWKH
mean gOREDOZDUPLQJRIWKH(DUWK¶VVXUIDFHZLWKLQWKH
range of 0.5 to 1.3 ºC during the period 1951-2010.
5HJDUGLQJWKHQDWXUDOLQWHUQDOYDULDELOLW\LWLVH[SHFWHG
that average annual and seasonal temperature increases
WXDOJOREDODQGUHJLRQDOHYDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQZKLFK
ZLOOEHDIIHFWHGE\YDULDWLRQVLQSUHFLSLWDWLRQOHYHOV
spatiotemporal changes in rain distribution, values of
daily temperature, aerosols concentration, alteration
RI QHW UDGLDWLRQ YDSRU SUHVVXUH GH¿FLW DQG ZLQG
speed (IPCC, 2007; Bates et al., 2008; Fu et al., 2009;
McVicar et al., 2010; Miralles et al., 2011; Wang A.
ZLOOEHKLJKHULQWKHWURSLFVDQGVXEWURSLFVWKDQLQWKH
mid-latitudes. For the period 2081-2100, the average
(DUWK¶V WHPSHUDWXUH LV H[SHFWHG WR EH LQ WKH UDQJHV
GHULYHGIURPWKHQHZFOLPDWHFKDQJHVFHQDULRVEURXJKW
LQWRFRQVLGHUDWLRQWKDWLVZLWKLQFUHDVHVRIž&
(RCP 2.6), 1.1-2.6 ºC (RCP 4.5), 1.4-3.1 ºC (RCP 6.0),
HWDO.XQG]HZLF]HWDO7KHVHIHDWXUHV
FRXOGKDYHDQHJDWLYHLQÀXHQFHRQWKHZDWHUVRXUFHV
Among the main factors that have an effect on
WKHQDWXUDOZDWHUVXSSO\DQGLWVTXDOLW\RWKHUWKDQ
FOLPDWHZHPD\¿QGFKDQJHLQODQGXVHZDWHUGDP-
ming for different activities, polluting emissions in
DQGž&5&3/LNHZLVHE\WKHHQGRIWKH
century the average annual precipitation estimated for
WKH5&3VFHQDULRLVH[SHFWHGWRLQFUHDVHLQKLJK
ODWLWXGHVDQGLQWKHHTXDWRULDO3DFL¿F2FHDQZKLOHLW
could decrease in many dry zones in mid-latitudes and
subtropics. This scenario also suggests huge impacts
LQ]RQHVZLWKFOLPDWHVVLPLODUWRWKHVWXG\DUHD$ULG
WKHDWPRVSKHUHWUHDWPHQWRIZDVWHZDWHUDQGVRFLDO
economic and technological changes and their respec-
tive relations, including lifestyle changes (van Vuuren
et al., 2012; IPCC, 2007). Furthermore, the demand
of the hydric resource for its use and consumption
directly affects the demographic factor, food security
and sovereignty, politics, economy, technology, life-
and semi-arid regions in mid-latitudes and subtropics
DUHOLNHO\WRKDYHOHVVUDLQKHQFHLWLVHVWLPDWHGWKDW
IRUHDFKGHJUHHRIJOREDOZDUPLQJDSSUR[LPDWHO\
RIWKHJOREDOSRSXODWLRQZLOOEHH[SRVHGWRDUHGXFWLRQ
of at least 20% in hydric resources (IPCC, 2013, 2014;
Jiménez Cisneros et al., 2014).
This results in alterations of the hydrological cy-
cle, such as increase or reinforcement of evaporation
VW\OHDQGZDWHUFRQVXPSWLRQSULRULWLHV,3&&
Among these non-climatic factors, land use change
VWDQGVRXWVLQFHLWFRXOGVLJQL¿FDQWO\DIIHFWGULQNLQJ
ZDWHUV\VWHPV)RUH[DPSOHVRLOGHJUDGDWLRQDWWULE-
XWDEOHWRXUEDQDFWLYLWLHVFRXOGLQFUHDVHWKHULVNVRI
ÀRRGVDQGGHFUHDVHWKHDTXLIHUUHFKDUJHGXHWRWKH
settlement of communities near the channels or the
limitation of recharge from natural ground currents
 Climate change in arid zones
as a consequence of compaction or other impacts
resulting from urbanization, apart from disturbing
WKHQDWXUDOV\VWHPV6LPLODUO\UHJDUGLQJIUHVKZDWHU
systems, using land for agriculture in the future, in
SDUWLFXODUIRULUULJDWLRQZKLFKUHSUHVHQWVDOPRVW
RIWKHJOREDOGHPDQGRIZDWHUZLOOVHYHUHO\LPSDFW
its availability for domestic use and the proper func-
tioning of ecosystems (Döll, 2009).
*URXQGZDWHU V\VWHPV FKDQJH DW D VORZHU SDFH
WKDQZDWHUDYDLODEOHLQWKHVXUIDFH6WXGLHVUHJDUGLQJ
FOLPDWHFKDQJHWRDVVHVVDQGDQDO\]HJURXQGZDWHU
systems are limited, information is scarce and there
is no access to the databases necessary for their study
DQGDQDO\VLV0HDQZKLOHGURXJKWVDIIHFWDJULFXOWXUH
65
On the other hand, IDEAM (2015a) suggests that
the main reductions in precipitations by the end of
WKHFHQWXU\ZLOORFFXULQWKHVWDWHVRI6DQ$QGUpVDQG
Providencia, Magdalena, and Guajira. This report
also estimates that in the average ensemble scenario,
potential droughts may occur in the north of Cesar,
Magdalena and Guajira by 2100. Furthermore, it is
suggested that the probability of a shortage of food
harvested in the region could increase. The hydric
shortage could affect sectors such as agriculture, and
LQSDUWLFXODUVWRFNEUHHGLQJDVZHOODVWKHHQHUJ\DQG
tourism sectors in the Caribbean (IDEAM, 2015a).
7KLVVWXG\DLPVWRGHWHUPLQHWKHZDWHUEDODQFH
under climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP
LQWHUPVRITXDOLW\DQGTXDQWLW\KDYLQJDGLUHFWLQÀX-
HQFHRQIRRGVHFXULW\DQGVRYHUHLJQW\ZDWHUVXSSO\
for the consumption of different productive sectors
and others. Semi-arid and semi-humid regions around
WKHZRUOGDV$XVWUDOLDWKHZHVWRIWKH86$WKHVRXWK
of Canada and the Sahel have suffered very long
GURXJKWV²LQVRPHFDVHVGXULQJPDQ\\HDUVZLWK
different intensities— but climate change can affect
WKHP VLQFH LW LV H[SHFWHG WKDW GURXJKW FRQGLWLRQV
increase by about 30% by the end of the century
LQWZRSHULRGVRIWLPHDQG
2080), based on the validation and modeling of the
climatic and hydrologic parameters that are distinc-
WLYH RI D UHJLRQ ZKLFK UHSUHVHQWV H[WUHPH GHVHUW
conditions in Colombia, in order to describe the
LPSDFW RI VXUIDFH DQG JURXQGZDWHU DYDLODELOLW\ RQ
ecosystems, domestic use, and the productivity of
the primary and industrial sectors.
2. Materials and methods
.XQG]HZLF]HWDO
In Colombia, according to the Instituto de Hi-
drología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales
(Institute of Hidrology, Meteorology and Environ-
mental Studies) (IDEAM, 2010), in the state of
Guajira and some other regions of the Caribbean,
WKHUHDUHDUHDVZKHUHZDWHULVKLJKO\GH¿FLHQWHJ
'HVFULSWLRQRIWKHVWXG\DUHD
An area that represents the arid and desert condi-
WLRQVLQ&RORPELDZDVVHOHFWHGLQRUGHUWRDQDO\]H
DQGDVVHVVWKHSDUDPHWHUVLQYROYHGLQZDWHUEDODQFHDQG
the effects of climate change in such region. The
area selected corresponds to a desert zone initially
FODVVL¿HGDFFRUGLQJWRWKH/DQJ¶VLQGH[,L) or the
to the south of the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta
and in the sub-basins of the Magdalena and Cauca
rivers, corresponding to the high parts of the basin; to
the Savannah of Bogotá; to the Alto Cauca, and to the
basin of the Chicamocha river. When a dry climatic
UDWLREHWZHHQDQQXDOSUHFLSLWDWLRQ3&3DQGDYHUDJH
temperature (Tavg) (Table I), located in the munici-
pality of Uribia in the state of Guajira.
To describe the climate in the study area and
HODERUDWHLWVEDVHOLQHDFOLPDWRORJLFDOVWDWLRQZDV
FRQGLWLRQRFFXUVDYHUDJH\HDUWKHZDWHU\LHOGUH- VHOHFWHG ZKLFK UHSUHVHQWHG WKH ]RQH DQG DOVR KDG
GXFHVVLJQL¿FDQWO\DVFRPSDUHGWRQRUPDOFRQGLWLRQV
,QSDUWLFXODUDVLJQL¿FDQWUHGXFWLRQLVREVHUYHGLQWKH 7DEOH,&OLPDWLF]RQHVDFFRUGLQJWR/DQJ¶VLQGH[3&3
&DULEEHDQPRUHVSHFL¿FDOO\LQWKH*XDMLUD Tavg).
The natural supply (availability) of the hydric re-
source in an average year and a dry year has regional IL Zone
differences that are important to discriminate. In the 0-20 Desert
hydrographic area of the Caribbean, the reduction of 20-40 Arid
the natural supply of this resource varies for these 40-60 Wet zone of steppe and savannah
FRQGLWLRQVEHWZHHQLQ$WUDWR'DULpQDQG 60-100 Wet zone of sparse forest
100-160 Wet zone of dense forest
in Catatumbo. Within the same area, in the Urabá >160 9HU\ZHW]RQHRIJUDVVODQGDQGWXQGUD
Antioqueño this difference is of 68%, in Sinú of 59%,
and in the Guajira of 63% (IDEAM, 2010). 6RXUFH$OPRUR[
66 J. E. Ospina-Noreña et al.

KLVWRULFDO UHFRUGV ZLWK UHOHYDQW YDULDEOHV VXFK DV After obtaining the monthly value of PCP and
Tavg PD[LPXP DQG PLQLPXP WHPSHUDWXUH 7PD[, (7R RWKHU YDULDEOHV RI WKH ZDWHU EDODQFH ZHUH
and Tmin, respectively), PCP, and evaporation (Ev), FDOFXODWHG7KLVFRQVLVWHGLQGH¿QLQJWKHIROORZLQJ
among others. The baseline covers the period be- SDUDPHWHUVLQPPWKHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQSUHFLS-
WZHHQDQG7KHGDWDZHUHREWDLQHGIURP itation and evapotranspiration (PCP – (7R>ǻ@WKH
the IDEAM database. UHVHUYHRUVWRUDJHRIXVDEOHZDWHU56WRWKHGH¿FLW
H[FHVVDQGYDULDWLRQLQWKHUHVHUYHRUVWRUDJHRIXV-
 &DOFXODWLRQ RI ZDWHU EDODQFH SDUDPHWHUV LQ DEOHZDWHU'HI([FDQGǻ5>ǻ6WR@UHVSHFWLYHO\
normal conditions the actual evapotranspiration; the replacement (R);
Water balance is considered an essential tool to and the usage (U).
ORFDWH DQG HVWDEOLVK FURSV WUDFN WKHLU JURZWK DQG +HQFHLWZDVYHUL¿HGLI(7RZDVKLJKHURUORZHU
development, and program and perform hydraulic than PCP in the period considered (PCP – (7R ǻ
LQIUDVWUXFWXUHZRUNVHJLQIUDVWUXFWXUHIRULUULJDWLRQ 7KH GLIIHUHQFH RU UHVXOW FODVVL¿HG WKH PRQWKV DV
and drainage, program activities for management and IROORZVGU\PRQWKVLI3&3±(7R < 0) and humid
LUULJDWLRQ HWF ,I IRU H[DPSOH ZDWHU DYDLODELOLW\ months if (PCP – (7R!7RGH¿QHWKH56WRRI
to perform agricultural activities in any location de- XVDEOH ZDWHU WKH IROORZLQJ LV WDNHQ LQWR DFFRXQW
pends on precipitation and its resupply of moisture ZKHQ PRUH LQSXWV WKDQ RXWSXWV DUH SURGXFHG LQ D
WRWKHVRLOWKHÀXFWXDWLRQVEHWZHHQSUHFLSLWDWLRQDQG month, (PCP > (7RVXUSOXVZDWHUZLOOLQFUHDVHWKH
HYDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQZKLFKDUHHVVHQWLDOFRPSRQHQWV soil reserve; on the contrary, if there are more outputs
IRUZDWHUEDODQFHZLOOLQÀXHQFHWKHDYDLODELOLW\RI
ZDWHUIRUWKHFURSV
In order to assess the parameters involved in
ZDWHU EDODQFH RWKHU WKDQ WKH YDULDEOHV DOUHDG\
analyzed), it is necessary to consider the potential
evapotranspiration ((7R). To calculate (7R, the FAO
3HQPDQ0RQWHLWK PHWKRG ZDV WDNHQ LQWR DFFRXQW
WKDQLQSXWVWKHVRLOUHVHUYHZLOOGHFUHDVH
At this point, it is important to emphasize that
WKHUHVHUYHRUVWRUDJHRIXVDEOHZDWHULQWKHVRLOLV
not uniform; it depends on the type and character-
istics related to the different types of soil. In this
SDUWLFXODU FDVH WDNHQ DV D FOLPDWLF UHIHUHQFH IRU
WKHVWXG\DUHDWKHPD[LPXPFDSDFLW\RIUHVHUYHRU
)$2ZKLFKLVWKHRQO\PHWKRGUHFRPPHQGHG VWRUDJHRIZDWHU¿HOGFDSDFLW\>)&@LVPP
to determine (7RZLWKFOLPDWLFSDUDPHWHUV(T 7KXV5FDQRQO\KDYHYDOXHVEHWZHHQGU\VRLO
ZLWKRXWZDWHUDYDLODEOHIRUSODQWVDQGRSWLPDO
0.408∆ (Rn – G) + γ
900
U2 (es – ea) humidity content).
T + 273
ETo = (1) ,QLWLDOO\ WKH PRQWK ZKHQ WKH SRVLWLYHǻ SHULRG
∆ + γ (1 + 0.34U2) VWDUWVZDVLGHQWL¿HGDQGDYDOXHRIZDVDVVLJQHG
to it. Some authors propose that a hypothetical value
ZKHUH(7R represents the baseline evapotranspiration should be assigned to a month and annual calcula-
(mm day–1), Rn the net radiation in the crop surface tion cycles should be conducted until reaching the
(MJ m–2 day–1), GWKHVRLOKHDWÀRZ0-P–2 day–1), suggested hypothesis.
7 the air average temperature at a 2-m height (ºC), For calculation purposes, it is usually assumed
U2 WKH ZLQG VSHHG DW D P KHLJKW P V–1), es the that after a dry period the soil reserve is null (0). As a
VDWXUDWLRQ¶VYDSRUSUHVVXUHN3Dea the actual vapor UHVXOWWKHFDOFXODWLRQRI5EHJLQVZLWKWKH¿UVWKXPLG
SUHVVXUHN3Des – eaWKHYDSRUSUHVVXUHGH¿FLWN3D
ǻWKHVORSHRIWKHYDSRUSUHVVXUHFXUYHN3Dž&–1),
and ȖWKHSV\FKURPHWULFFRQVWDQWN3Dž&–1).
7KH HVWLPDWLRQ ZDV PDGH ZLWK WKH KHOS RI WKH
&URSZDW  VRIWZDUH ZKLFK UHTXLUHV ORFDWLRQ
data, such as country, station, altitude, coordinates
(longitude and latitude); it also requires climatic
GDWDVXFKDVPD[LPXPDQGPLQLPXPWHPSHUDWXUH
UHODWLYHKXPLGLW\ZLQGVSHHGDQGLQVRODWLRQRUKRXUV
month and the previous month receives a null (0)
UHVHUYH7KHQQH[WPRQWK¶V5RU6WRDUHFDOFXODWHG
by adding the previous month’s R to PCP – (7R ǻ
of the current month (Eq. 2)
Ri = Ri–1 + (PCPi±(7Ri) (2)
If the result is more than 100, then R = 100 and the
UHVWWUDQVIHUVWR([F,IRJRHVEHWZHHQDQGLW
of sunlight. WDNHVWKDWYDOXHUHVXOWDQGLIWKHUHVXOWLVOHVVWKDQ
 Climate change in arid zones 67

0, R is = 0 and the value (result) transfers to Def. The 6HDVRQDOYDULDWLRQRIWKHHIIHFWLYHKXPLGLW\

rules are based on RiLQRWKHUZRUGVRi = Ri – 1 + 7KHPRLVWXUHLQGH[FDQLQGLFDWHKRZKXPLGRUDULG
(PCPi – (7Ri) if 0 < Ri – 1 + (PCPi – (7Ri)<RPD[; Ri a region is, but it cannot differentiate the seasonal
= Rmax if Ri – 1 + (PCPi – (7Ri) > Rmax; and Ri = 0 if variations; therefore, in humid climates (Im > 0) it
0 > Ri – 1 + (PCPi – (7Ri/DWHUWKHYDULDWLRQEHWZHHQ
WKHUHVHUYHDQGWKHVWRUDJHRIXVDEOHZDWHUǻ5RUǻ
Sto) is calculated based on the result of the difference
EHWZHHQWKHYDOXHRIVWRUDJHRIXVDEOHZDWHURIWKH
month considered and the last month. If the sign is
positive, it means the replacement (R) of the soil
moisture, and if the sign is negative, it means the
utilization (U) of the soil moisture (ǻRi = Ri – Ri – 1).
Finally, (7DLVGHWHUPLQHG7KHIROORZLQJFDVHV
FDQ RFFXU HDFK PRQWK ,I 3&3 • (7R, then (7D =
(7R; and if PCP < (7R, then (7D = PCP + | ǻ Sto |.
7KHFRHI¿FLHQW(7D/(7RGHWHUPLQHVWKHJURZWKSH-
ULRGVFRQVLGHULQJWKDWWKHPRQWKVZLWK(7D/(7R•
0.60 are appropriate to develop crops, although it is
QHFHVVDU\WRHVWLPDWHHDFKFRHI¿FLHQWIRUHYHU\FURS
and phenological stage.
FRXOGEHQHFHVVDU\WRGHWHUPLQHZKHWKHUWKHUHDUH
GU\VHDVRQVDQGDVVHVVWKHGURXJKWGHJUHHZKLOHLQ
dry climates (Im < 0) it could be necessary to deter-
PLQHZKHWKHUWKHUHDUHKXPLGVHDVRQVDQGDVVHVVWKH
KXPLGLW\GHJUHH$QQH[$SUHVHQWVWKHVXEGLYLVLRQV
for humid climates (A, B, C2) and dry climates (C1,
D, E).
,QGH[RIWKHUPDOHI¿FLHQF\
7KHSRWHQWLDOHYDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQLVDWKHUPDOHI¿FLHQ-
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that involves the day length and temperature. This
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method
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 7KHUPDO HI¿FLHQF\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ GXULQJ WKH
summertime
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$FFRUGLQJWR7KRUQWKZDLWHWKHKXPLGLW\RUDULGLW\ (7R corresponding to any three consecutive months
RIDFOLPDWHFDQEHH[SUHVVHGLQWHUPVRIWKHZDWHU ZLOOEHDSSUR[LPDWHO\RIWKHDQQXDO(7R.
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Ih ([F(7R‡  EC = ((7RY/(7R)*100 (6)

Ia 'HI(7R‡  ZKHUH (& LV WKH WKHUPDO HI¿FLHQF\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ
during summer, (7Rv the evapotranspiration of the
6LQFHWKHH[FHVVRUODFNRIZDWHUJHQHUDOO\RFFXU three summer months, and ETo the annual evapo-
in different seasons or periods, both should have a WUDQVSLUDWLRQ$QQH[$VKRZVWKHGLIIHUHQWWKHUPDO
PRLVWXUHLQGH[ImSRVLWLYHO\DIIHFWLQJWKH¿UVWRQH ÀRRUVDFFRUGLQJWRWKHWKHUPDOHI¿FLHQF\FRQFHQWUD-
DQGQHJDWLYHO\WKHVHFRQGRQHOLNHWKLV tion in summer.

Im = Ih – Ia ‡([F±‡'HI(7R (5)
Positive values of Im correspond to humid cli-
PDWHV ZKLOH QHJDWLYH YDOXHV RI Im determine dry
FOLPDWHV WKH UDQJHV DQG FODVVL¿FDWLRQ RI W\SHV RI
FOLPDWHVLQDFFRUGDQFHZLWKIm values are presented
LQDQQH[$
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climate change conditions
7KH EDVHOLQHV RI WKH PDLQ YDULDEOHV ZHUH DGMXVWHG
ZLWKWKHDQRPDOLHVSURMHFWHGLQWKHVWXG\DUHDWKURXJK
the HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-CM3 models, RCP 4.5
and RCP 8.5 scenarios, for the periods 2041-2060
(focused on 2050) and 2061-2080 (focused on 2070),
68
UHVSHFWLYHO\7KHVHVFHQDULRVDQGSHULRGVZHUHVHOHFW-
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RI /DQJ¶V LQGH[ VXJJHVWHG DQ RSWLPLVWLF VFHQDULR
ZKLOHWKHVHFRQGUHVXOWVLPSOLHGDSHVVLPLVWLFVFHQDULR
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from the scenarios provided by WorldClim Global
J. E. Ospina-Noreña et al.
Analysis of the values collected at the station en-
DEOHGXVWRGHWHUPLQHZK\WKHVWXG\DUHDKDVD7PD[,
Tavg and Tmin of 32.5, 27.3 and 22.0 ºC, respectively
(Fig. 2a). Even though PCP is scarce (about 510.2 mm),
evaporation and evapotranspiration are higher than
2044.5 and 1521.1 mm, respectively (Fig. 2b) (the
&OLPDWH'DWDZLWKDPLQODWLWXGHDQGORQJLWXGH
resolution equivalent to about 4.5 ™NPZKLFKDUH
available at KWWSZZZZRUOGFOLPRUJFPLS_2.5m.
$IWHUZDUGV D UHDVVHVVPHQW RI RWKHU YDULDEOHV DQG
SDUDPHWHUVLQYROYHGLQZDWHUEDODQFHDQGWKHFODVVL-
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3. Analysis and results
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15'57'' W, 11º 42' 50'' N in the state of Guajira (Fig. 1).
Studies in this zone are critical, since the potential
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temperature, precipitation and evaporation variables
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values (baseline) of the main variables.
As mentioned above and can be observed in Fig. 2
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other parameters and variables related to the hydric
resource and, certainly, on the activities and sectors
that depend on it (particularly the primary sector, i.e.,
the already deficient conditions, threatening the
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activities that depend on this resource, increasing the
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As mentioned above, the IL for the area selected
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desert zone according to Lang’s climatic zones clas-
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In Figure 2b it is evident that in the municipality
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values of precipitation all year round.
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study area.
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tion is scarce and (7R has a high rate that leads to a
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N
LA GUAJIRA LA GUAJIRA
COLOMBIA
12º20'0''N

S Nazareth
12º0'0''N

Uribia
11º40'0''N

LA GUAJIRA
Uribia
Manaure

Manaure
Maicao
11º20'0''N

Río Hacha Legend

Dibulla Maicao
Weather station
Municipal boundary
Legend
State boundary
Municipal boundary

72º40'0''W 72º20'0''W 72º0'0''W 71º40'0''W 71º20'0''W

Fig. 1. Location of the study area (station analyzed, Nazareth).

 Climate change in arid zones 69

a Tmax Tmin Tavg b PCP Ev

34
200
32

Water layer (mm)

Temperature (°C)

30 150
28
100
26

24
50
22

20 0
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Month Month

Fig. 2. (a) Monthly behavior of temperature at Uribia-Guajira. (b) Monthly behavior of precipitation and evaporation
at Uribia-Guajira.

7DEOH,,0RQWKO\YDOXHVEDVHOLQH-DQXDU\>-@WR'HFHPEHU>'@

V/month J F M A M Jn Ju A S O N D Sum/avg
TPD[ (ºC) 29.7 30.7 31.3 32.8 32.7 33.3 33.5 34.2 34.4 33.6 31.9 31.3 32.5
Tmin (ºC) 21.1 21.2 20.8 22.4 22.7 23.3 23.4 21.9 22.8 21.9 21.6 20.6 22.0
Tavg (ºC) 25.8 26.0 26.5 27.0 27.6 28.0 28.0 28.4 28.6 28.1 27.3 26.2 27.3
PCP (mm) 18.7 9.1 9.7 22.1 37.2 13.3 7.0 13.1 44.3 146.2 134.8 54.7 510.2
RH (%) 81.5 80.6 80.7 80.8 81.0 80.1 80.1 80.1 80.9 83.2 84.1 82.9 81.3
Ev (mm) 113 155 182 173 193 212 214 221 206 155 121 102 2044.5

V: variable.

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V/month J F M A M Jn Ju A S O N D Total
PCP 18.7 9.1 9.7 22.1 37.2 13.3 7.0 13.1 44,3 146.2 134.8 54.7 510.2
ET0 105.5 111.5 131.8 122.4 131.4 140.5 151.3 155.0 142.2 125.5 106.3 97.9 1521.1
ǻ –86.8 –102.4 –122.1 –100.3 –94.2 –127.2 –144.3 –141.9 –97.8 20.7 28.5 –43.1
R Sto 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.7 49.2 6.0
Def 80.7 102.4 122.1 100.3 94.2 127.2 144.3 141.9 97.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1010.9
([F 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
ǻSto –6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0,0 20.7 28.5 –43.1
ETa 24.7 9.1 9.7 22.1 37.2 13.3 7.0 13.1 44,3 125.5 106.3 97.9 510.2
ETa/ET0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.05 0.1 0,3 1.0 1.0 1.0
R or U U R R U

V: variable.

H[FHVV7KHUHLVRQO\DZDWHUUHSODFHPHQWUDWHRI
20.7 mm and 28.5 mm in October and November,
respectively; 43.1 mm are used in December and
6.0 mm in January. According to the (7D/(7R
values presented in Table III, only the period from
2FWREHUWR'HFHPEHUZRXOGEHDSSURSULDWHIRUWKH
GHYHORSPHQWRIVRPHFURSV7KHVHDVSHFWVFRQ¿UP
WKHUHVXOWVRIWKHFRPSDULVRQEHWZHHQ3&3(YDQG
(7R (Figs. 2b and 3) and to the observations made
using IL.
70 J. E. Ospina-Noreña et al.

Def PCP ETo ETa RIDQ\W\SHRIFURSV/LNHZLVHWKH\DOORZOHDGLQJ

160 activities such as management of hydrographic
140 basins, irrigation programs, production forecast,
120 FOLPDWHFODVVL¿FDWLRQFURSV]RQLQJDPRQJRWKHUV
Water layer (mm)

100

80
 &DOFXODWLRQ RI WKH ZDWHU EDODQFH SDUDPHWHUV
under climate change conditions
60
The baseline of the main variables involved in the
40
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20
the anomalies projected in the study area through the
0 HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-CM3 models, RCP 4.5
and RCP 8.5 scenarios, for the periods 2041-2060
y

ch

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(focused on 2050) and 2061-2080 (focused on 2070),

Ja

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Month
)LJ  &XUUHQW ZDWHU EDODQFH PXQLFLSDOLW\ RI 8ULELD
Guajira.
)LJXUHVKRZVWKHEHKDYLRURI3&3(7R(7D
'HIDQG([F[RIZDWHULQWKHVWXG\DUHDDVDUHVXOW
RIZDWHUEDODQFHDQDO\VLVXQGHUWKHFXUUHQWFOLPDWLF
conditions.
,Q)LJXUHWKHDUHDEHWZHHQWKH(7R and Eta lines
PHDQVDGH¿FLW3&3DERYH(7D corresponds to the
VWRUDJHLQUHVHUYHSOXVH[FHVV(7D over PCP means
a utilization of the soil reserve.
$ FOLPDWH FODVVL¿FDWLRQ E\ WKH 7KRUQWKZDLWH
PHWKRG ZDV FRQGXFWHG WDNLQJ LQWR DFFRXQW WKH
respectively.
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future scenarios for TPD[, Tavg, Tmin, PCP and RH.
These scenarios suggest an annual reduction of
LQSUHFLSLWDWLRQZLWKLQWKHVWXG\DUHDIRUWKH
HadGEM2-ES model (RCP 4.5, period 2041-2060),
and 11.0% for the GFDL-CM3 model (RCP 8.5,
period 2061-2080), moving from 510.2 to 498.2 and
510.2 to 454.2 mm, respectively. RH presents chang-
HVRQDPRQWKO\EDVLVDV7DEOH9VKRZVUHGXFLQJ
WKHDQQXDODYHUDJHE\ZLWK the HadGEM2-ES
PRGHOIRUWKH¿UVWSHULRGPRYLQJIURPWR
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The average annual relative humidity reaches a value
of 65.5%, indicating a reduction of about 15.8% in
UHVXOWVLQ7DEOH,,,(TVDQGDQQH[HV$WR FRPSDULVRQZLWKWKHFXUUHQWVLWXDWLRQ
$ZKLFKGHPRQVWUDWHGWKDWXQGHUFXUUHQWFRQGL- Regarding the average annual temperature, an
WLRQVWKHVWXG\DUHDFODVVL¿HVDVDQDULG]RQHZLWK LQFUHDVHRIž&ZLWKWKH+DG*(0(6PRGHOLV
OLPLWHG RU QR H[FHVV RI ZDWHU PHJDWKHUPDO DQG projected in the study area for the period 2041-2060
ZLWKDORZFRQFHQWUDWLRQRIWKHUPDOHI¿FLHQF\,WV
V\PEROLFGHVFULSWLRQZRXOGEH(G$¶D¶VHHDQQH[HV
A1 to A4), supporting the condition initially found
ZKHQXVLQJ,L.
7DEOH,9VKRZVWKHYDOXHVREWDLQHGIRUWKHLQGH[HV
UHODWHGWRFOLPDWHFODVVL¿FDWLRQE\WKH7KRUQWKZDLWH
method.
7DEOH,9,QGH[HVIRUFOLPDWHFODVVL¿FDWLRQ
,QGH[ Value
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for the period 2061-2080 (RCP 8.5). In this regard,
IDEAM (2015b) presents results for the average
HQVHPEOHVFHQDULRZKHUHLWLVVXJJHVWHGWKDWE\WKH
end of the century temperature in the state of Gua-
jira could increase 2.3 ºC on average compared to
current values. IDEAM considers that the Alta and
Media Guajira could have the highest increases, of
DSSUR[LPDWHO\ž&FRYHULQJWKHPXQLFLSDOLWLHVRI
,QGH[ Value Uribia, Manaure and Maicao.
In terms of precipitation, the state of Guajira could
Ih ([F(7R‡ 0.0 Im = Ih–Ia –66.5
have reductions of up to 20% on average by the end
,D 'HI(7R‡ 66.5 EC=((7Rv/(7R‡ 29.5
All the factors so far analyzed are of great impor-
WDQFHDVDOUHDG\PHQWLRQHGZKHQSODQQLQJK\GUDXOLF
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of the century. In particular, to the south of the state
and in the municipalities of Rioacha and Dibulla the
reductions could vary from 30 to 40% in relation to
the current value (IDEAM, 2015b). Similarly, IDE-
$0ZDUQVWKDWIRUWKHSHULRGV
 Climate change in arid zones 71

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HadGEM2-ES, RCP4.5, focused on 2050

V/month J F M A M Jn Ju A S O N D Sum/avg
PCP 18.7 9.1 9.7 20.1 46.2 15.3 6.0 12.1 41.3 126.2 137.8 55.7 498.2
TPD[ 31.5 32.7 33.2 34.5 34.3 35.0 35.2 35.9 36.3 35.4 33.7 33.1 34.2
Tmin 23.0 23.3 22.7 24.2 24.4 25.1 25.2 23.7 24.6 23.8 23.6 22.5 23.8
Tavg 27.3 28.0 27.9 29.4 29.3 30.0 30.2 29.8 30.5 29.6 28.6 27.8 29.0
RH 73.2 71.6 72.3 73.1 73.8 72.6 72.5 72.6 72.8 74.9 75.5 74.5 73.3
GFDL-CM3, RCP8.5, focused on 2070
V/month J F M A M Jn Ju A S O N D Sum/avg
PCP 19.7 10.1 10.7 25.1 48.2 30.3 9.0 11.1 28.3 100.2 106.8 54.7 454.2
TPD[ 33.4 34.5 34.9 36.3 36.4 37.0 37.0 38.2 38.7 37.7 35.8 35.0 36.2
Tmin 24.9 25.0 24.5 26.1 26.6 27.3 27.1 25.9 26.9 25.6 25.3 24.4 25.8
Tavg 29.2 29.8 29.7 31.2 31.5 32.1 32.0 32.1 32.8 31.7 30.5 29.7 31.0
RH 65.6 64.7 65.4 65.9 65.4 64.5 65.4 63.9 63.8 66.5 67.5 66.9 65.5

and 2071-2100, increases in temperature could be RUQRH[FHVVRIZDWHUPHJDWKHUPDODQGZLWKDORZ

of 0.9, 1.6 and 2.3 ºC, and decreases in precipitation FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI WKHUPDO HI¿FLHQF\ (G$¶D¶ DF-
could be of about 14.5, 16.57 and 20.02%, respec- FRUGLQJWRWKHFKDQJHVSURMHFWHGE\WKHWZRPRGHOV
WLYHO\ ,'($0 E$W WKLV SRLQW LW LV ZRUWK
mentioning that even though a reduction in precipi-
tation is relatively trivial, the increase in temperature
UHDFKHVVXEVWDQWLDOYDOXHVZKLFKFRXOGVLJQL¿FDQWO\
impact and transform the region, especially because
currently precipitation in the study area is rare and
temperature is very high.
/DQJ¶VLQGH[VKRZVDUHGXFWLRQIURPWKHFXUUHQW
18.7 to 17.0 in the HadGEM2-ES model for the period
EXW FRQGLWLRQV EHFRPH PRUH GH¿FLHQW RYHU WLPH
(see Tables IV and VI).
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LQGH[HV UHODWHG WR FOLPDWH FODVVL¿FDWLRQ XVLQJ WKH
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changes projected for the HadGEM2-ES model, pe-
riod 2041-2060 (RCP 4.5), and GFDL-CM3, period
2061-2080 (RCP 8.5).
7DEOHV9,,DQG9,,,SUHVHQWWKHZDWHUEDODQFHUH-
5&3DQGWRZLWKWKHFKDQJHV
projected in the GFDL-CM3 model for the period 2061-
2080 (RCP 8.5). This suggests that, according to the
projections found, current conditions in the study area
ZLOOEHH[DFHUEDWHGZKLFKZLOOFKDQJHLWVFODVVL¿FDWLRQ
to a desert zone as times goes by (Tables I and V).
)XUWKHUPRUH WKH IXWXUH FOLPDWH FODVVL¿FDWLRQ
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HadGEM2-ES, RCP4.5, focused on 2050
,QGH[ Value &ODVVL¿FDWLRQ
sults for the periods analyzed, considering changes in
the climatic variables projected for the HadGEM2-ES
and GFDL-CM3 models.
When comparing the results from tables III,
9,, DQG 9,,, LW LV HYLGHQW WKDW H[SHFWHG FOLPDWLF
FKDQJHV H[DFHUEDWH WKH GH¿FLHQW FRQGLWLRQV LQ WKH
study area, considerably increasing (7R and Def as
WLPHJRHVE\7KLVLVZK\(7R varies from 1521.1 to
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GFDL-CM3, RCP8.5, focused on 2070
,QGH[ Value &ODVVL¿FDWLRQ
Ih ([F(7R‡ 0.0 Ih ([F(7R‡ 0.0
,D 'HI(7R‡ 70.7 ,D 'HI(7R‡ 77.7
Im = Ih-Ia –70.7 EdA’a’ Im = Ih-Ia –77.7 EdA’a’
EC = (ETov(7R‡ 29.5 EC = (ETov(7R‡ 29.8
72 J. E. Ospina-Noreña et al.

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HadGEM2-ES
V/month J F M A M Jn Ju A S O N D Total
PCP 18.7 9.1 9.7 20.1 46.2 15.3 6.0 12.1 41.3 126.2 137.8 55.7 498.2
ETo 114.9 127.9 150.2 136.7 146.9 157.5 168.1 172.6 160.3 139.8 118.6 105.8 1699.4
ǻ –96.3 –118.8 –140.5 –116.6 –100.7 –142.2 –162.1 –160.4 –119.0 –13.6 19.2 –50.1
R_Sto 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.2 0.0
Def 96.3 118.8 140.5 116.6 100.7 142.2 162.1 160.4 119.0 13.6 0.0 30.9 1201.1
([F 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
ǻSto 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.2 –19.2
ETa 18.7 9.1 9.7 20.1 46.2 15.3 6.0 12.1 41.3 126.2 118.6 74.9 498.2
ETa/ETo 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.04 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.7
R or U R U

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GFDL-CM3
V/month J F M A M Jn Ju A S O N D Total
PCP 19.7 10.1 10.7 25.1 48.2 30.3 9.0 11.1 28.3 100.2 106.8 54.7 454.2
ETo 123.9 141.4 166.0 150.4 166.4 177.4 185.2 194.6 182.3 156.5 131.3 113.4 1888.8
ǻ –104.2 –131.3 –155.3 –125.3 –118.2 –147.2 –176.2 –183.5 –153.9 –56.3 –24.5 –58.7
R_Sto 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Def 104.2 131.3 155.3 125.3 118.2 147.2 1762 183.5 153.9 56.3 24.5 58.7 1434.6
([F 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
ǻSto 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
ETa 19.7 10.1 10.7 25.1 48.2 30.3 9.0 11.1 28.3 100.2 106.8 54.7 454.2
ETa/ETo 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.05 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.5
R or U

GEM2-ES model for the year in focus 2050, and to analysis only October, November and December
PPZLWKWKH*)'/&0PRGHOIRUWKH\HDU ZRXOGEHDSSURSULDWHWRGHYHORSVRPHFURSVWKDWGR
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DQGUHVSHFWLYHO\/LNHZLVH'HILQFUHDVHVE\
LQWKH¿UVWDQDO\VLVSHULRGDQGE\LQWKH
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becoming (7DZLWKDUHGXFWLRQRIDQG
in the HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-CM3 models for
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Under the models, periods and scenarios analyzed,
LWFDQEHREVHUYHGWKDWZLWKWKHHVWLPDWHGFKDQJHV
in the HadGEM2-ES model (RCP 4.5, year in focus
2050), only during November there is soil moisture
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October and November.
7DEOH,;VXPPDUL]HVWKHDQQXDOFKDQJHVH[SHFWHG
for the scenarios analyzed.
Figures 4 and 5 illustrate the behavior of monthly
PCP, (70, (7aDQG'HIZLWKLQWKHVWXG\DUHDVUHVXOW-
LQJIURPWKHDQDO\VLVRIZDWHUEDODQFHXQGHUFOLPDWH
change conditions.
According to the results found, provisional crops
VXFKDVFRUQVRUJKXPFRWWRQPHORQZDWHUPHORQ
and squash; permanent crops such as avocado, ba-
LQ 'HFHPEHU ZKLOH ZLWK WKH HVWLPDWHG FKDQJHV nana, lemon, orange, coconut, lulo, mango, among
in the GFDL-CM3 model (RCP8.5, year in focus others, reported in the study area by the Red de
WKHUHDUHQRPRQWKVLQZKLFKZDWHULQWKHVRLO Información y Comunicación del Sector Agropec-
LVUHSODFHG,QDFFRUGDQFHZLWKWKH(7a/(70 values uario Colombiano (Information and Communication
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 Climate change in arid zones 73

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V Current HadGEM2-ES, focused on 2050 GFDL-CM3, focused on 2070

(mm)
RCP_4.5 % change RCP_8.5 % change
PCP 510.2 498.2 –2.4 454.2 –11.0
ETo 1521.1 1699.4 11.7 1888.8 24.2
Def 1010.9 1201.1 18.8 1434.6 41.9
([F 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0
ETa 510.2 498.2 –2.4 454.2 –11.0

Def PCP ETo ETa

Moreover, the production, performance and qual-
180 ity of the products cultivated using irrigation systems
160 HJULFHZLOOEHDIIHFWHGE\WKHLQFUHDVLQJO\GH¿-
140 cient conditions of the municipality, unless some ad-
Water layer (mm)

120 MXVWPHQWVDUHPDGHWRWKHH[LVWLQJLUULJDWLRQV\VWHPV
100 SODQQLQJRISURGXFWVDQGWKHSURVSHFWVRZLQJDUHD
80 even a conversion of products should be considered.
60 Also, progress should be made in investigations
40 FRQFHUQLQJWKHDQDO\VLVRIWKHYLDELOLW\RIUDLQZDWHU
20 harvesting for those purposes.
0 IDEAM (2015b) suggests the main effects could
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increases in temperature throughout the century and
to the projected reductions in precipitations. The
Fig. 4. Water balance, Nazareth-Guajira station (Had- UHGXFWLRQLQWKHQDWXUDOVXSSO\RIZDWHUFRXOGFRQ-
GEM2-ES, RCP4.5, year in focus 2050). tinue to be one of the main effects on the study area,
affecting the health sector due to nutritional factors
Def PCP ETo ETa related to food security.
200
180
160
4. Conclusions and recommendations
140
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100 LWV VXUURXQGLQJV ZKLFK FHUWDLQO\ ZLOO VLJQL¿FDQWO\
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60 FXUUHQWQDWXUDOHFRV\VWHPV7KLVLQWXUQZLOOKLQGHU
40 the assessment of future vulnerability and negative
20 LPSDFWV RI H[SHFWHG FOLPDWH FKDQJHV SUHYHQWLQJ
0 WKHGHVLJQDQGSHUIRUPDQFHRIHI¿FLHQWDGDSWDWLRQ
proposals.
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Month different productive uses and consumption (domestic,

industrial, agricultural and for other productive sec-
Fig. 5. Water balance, Nazareth-Guajira station (GF-
WRUVZLOOLQGHHGEHDIIHFWHGFDXVLQJDQGLQFUHDVLQJ
DL-CM3, RCP8.5, year in focus 2070).
substantial economic and social impacts, that could
HQFRXUDJHRUOHDGWRVHULRXVFRQÀLFWVRYHUWKHXVH
AGRONET), could be adversely affected by the RIZDWHU
decrease in precipitation and moisture of soil, and The high rates of (7R and the reduction in pre-
the increase in temperature and (7R. cipitation and soil moisture can restrict agricultural
74 J. E. Ospina-Noreña et al.
activities, specially irrigated crops, resulting in the
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EH QHJDWLYHO\ DIIHFWHG VLQFH WKH LQ¿OWUDWLRQ UDWHV
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When comparing the baseline vs. future scenarios,
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decreases, enhancing the class characteristics.
It is recommended to conduct research proposals
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HPSOR\LQJZDWHUHI¿FLHQWFXOWLYDWLRQV\VWHPVLQWKHUH-
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or to enhance its climatic characteristics, in order to
LPSOHPHQWVWUDWHJLHVWRZDUGVWKHDGDSWDWLRQWRFOLPDWH
FKDQJHDQGWRWDFNOHWKHSRWHQWLDOQHJDWLYHLPSDFWV
on the sectors and activities that could result affected.
3URYLGHGWKDWLUULJDWLRQV\VWHPVZRUNHI¿FLHQWO\
DQGFDQVXSSO\WKHFXUUHQWZDWHUGHPDQGIRUFURSVDG-
GLWLRQDOZDWHUDQGWKHDGMXVWPHQWVUHTXLUHGWRFRYHUDW
OHDVWWKHSURMHFWHGGH¿FLWJURZWKHTXLYDOHQWWRDERXW
 IRU WKH \HDU LQ IRFXV  >+DG*(0(6@
%DWHV%&=:.XQG]HZLF]6:XDQG-33DOXWLNRI
(Eds.), 2008. Climate change and Water. Technical
paper. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
Geneva, 210 pp.
Döll P., 2009. Vulnerability to the impact of climate
FKDQJHRQUHQHZDEOHJURXQGZDWHUUHVRXUFHVDJORE-
al-scale assessment. Environ. Res. Lett. 4, 035006,
doi:10.1088/1748-9326/4/3/035006.
FAO, 2009. Evapotranspiración del cultivo. Guías para
la determinación de los requerimientos de agua de los
cultivos. Organización de las Naciones Unidas para la
Agricultura y la Alimentación, Roma, 322 pp.
)X*63&KDUOHVDQG-<X$FULWLFDORYHUYLHZRI
pan evaporation trends over the last 50 years. Climatic
Change 97, 193-214, doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9579-1.
IDEAM, 2010. Estudio nacional del agua 2010. Instituto
de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales.
Bogotá, 421 pp.
IDEAM, PNUD, MADS, DNP, CANCILLERÍA, 2015a.
Nuevos escenarios de cambio climático para Co-
ORPELD+HUUDPLHQWDVFLHQWt¿FDVSDUDOD
toma de decisiones, nivel nacional-regional. Tercera
comunicación nacional de cambio climático. Bogotá,
15 pp.
IDEAM, PNUD, MADS, DNP, CANCILLERÍA, 2015b.
DQGIRUWKH\HDULQIRFXV>*)'/&0@
should be considered for their future functioning.
'LIIHUHQWPRGHOVZHUHXVHGIRUWZRSHULRGVVLQFH
WKH\ZHUHVHOHFWHGIURPDUDQJHRIIXWXUHVFHQDULRVIRU
the years 2050 and 2070. The HadGEM2-ES model
proved to be the most optimistic for the study region
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study presents the most and least adverse situations,
according to the different scenarios studied.
Acknowledgments
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de Proyectos para el Fortalecimiento de la Investi-
gación, la Creación y la Innovación en Posgrados
de la Universidad de Colombia 2013-2015, for the
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velopment and the human talent training.
References
$OPRUR[ -  &OLPDWRORJtD DSOLFDGD DO PHGLR DP-
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&KDQJH&%)LHOG95%DUURV'-'RNNHQ.-
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-LPpQH]&LVQHURV%(72NL1:$UQHOO*%HQLWR-
*&RJOH\3'|OO7-LDQJDQG660ZDNDOLOD
)UHVKZDWHUUHVRXUFHV,Q&OLPDWHFKDQJH,P-
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VHFWRULDODVSHFWV&RQWULEXWLRQRI:RUNLQJ*URXS,,WR
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2EVHUYDWLRQDOHYLGHQFHIURPWZRPRXQWDLQRXV
UHJLRQV WKDW QHDUVXUIDFH ZLQG VSHHGV DUH GHFOLQLQJ
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,$ 6KLNORPDQRY  )UHVKZDWHU UHVRXUFHV DQG
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6ZDUW$ -DQHWRV 6 . 5RVH DQG 1$UQHOO 
$SURSRVDOIRUDQHZVFHQDULRIUDPHZRUNWRVXSSRUW
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76 J. E. Ospina-Noreña et al.

Annexes
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Humid climates (Im > 0) Dry climates (Im < 0)

Value Symbol Denomination Value Symbol Denomination
Im > 100 A Perhumid •,m > –33,3) C1 Dry subhumid
•,m > 80 B4 Very humid ±•,m > –60) D Semiarid
•,m > 60 B3 Humid ±•,m > –60) E Arid
•,m > 40 B2 Moderately humid
•,m > 20 B1 Slightly humid
•,m > 0 C2 Moist subhumid

A2. Seasonal variation of the effective humidity

,QGH[HVRIH[FHVVRIKXPLGLW\,h) for C1, D and E ,QGH[HVRIDULGLW\,a) for A, B and C2 climates
Range Symbol Denomination Range Symbol Denomination
0 < Ia < 10 d /LPLWHGRUQRH[FHVV 0 < Ia < 16.7 r /LWWOHRUQRODFNRI
RIZDWHU ZDWHU
10 < Ia < 20 s 0RGHUDWHH[FHVVRI 16.7 < Ia < 33.3 s 0RGHUDWHODFNRIZDWHULQ
ZDWHULQZLQWHU summer
10 < Ia < 20 Z 0RGHUDWHH[FHVVRI 16.7 < Ia < 33.3 Z 0RGHUDWHODFNRIZDWHULQ
ZDWHULQVXPPHU ZLQWHU
Ia > 20 s2 /DUJHH[FHVVRI Ia > 33.3 s2 &RQVLGHUDEOHODFNRI
ZDWHULQZLQWHU ZDWHULQVXPPHU
Ia > 20 Z2 /DUJHH[FHVVRI Ia > 33.3 Z2 &RQVLGHUDEOHODFNRI
ZDWHULQVXPPHU ZDWHULQZLQWHU

$,QGH[RIWKHUPDOHI¿FLHQF\

(7R Range (mm) Acronym Climatic type (7R Range (mm) Acronym Climatic type
(7o > 1140 A’ Megathermal 427 < (7R” C’2 Second mesothermal
997 < (7R” B’4 Fourth mesothermal 285 < (7R” C’1 First mesothermal
885 < (7R” B’3 Third mesothermal 142 < (7R” D’ Tundra
712 < (7R” B’2 Second mesothermal ETo < 142 E’ Glacial
570 < (7R” B’1 First mesothermal

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EC (%) Acronym Climatic type EC (%) Acronym Climatic type

(concentration) (concentration)
EC < 48 a’ /RZ !(&• b’1 Moderate
!(&• b’4 Moderate !(&• c’2 High
!(&• b’3 Moderate !(&• c’1 High
!(&• b’2 Moderate EC > 88 d’ Very high