American University - Central Asia

Master of Business Administration Department

Course Syllabus

MBA 516 Quantitative and Qualitative Methods of Decision Making

Number of credits: 3
_____________________________________________________________________________________

Course Description: This course focuses on the usage of essential quantitative and qualitative methods
and tools for effective decision making. Model formulations and applications are emphasized in solving
business decision problems. Topics include: Statistical data analysis, Forecasting techniques, Decision
theory, Optimization models, and Introduction to project management, Simulation and Group Decision
Techniques. The course is application and solution oriented. It emphasizes Learning by Doing. Analytical
techniques and computer packages will be used to solve problems facing business managers in different
decision contexts.

Course Objectives: 1. Provide methodical survey of statistical data analysis and models used in decision
making. 2. Understand the characteristics of different types of decision making environments and the
appropriate decision making approaches and tools to be used in each type. 3. Develop skills of
formulation of decision problems into appropriate models. 4. Understand the scope of implementation
and limitation of each type of models used. 5. Apply optimization and heuristic methods to solve
business problems, and make effective decisions. 6. Understanding the relationship among key
variables, and establish functional capability by using forecasting techniques. 7. Understand time and
project management concepts.

Methodology: The lectures are delivered in interactive form in English and are accompanied with Power
Point presentations. All lecture presentations and brief notes (weekly according to subjects covered) are
provided on the e-course in Master of Business Administration Section / MBA516 “QQMDM” folder.
Students take individual responsibility for taking notes during classes, study of the materials from the
mentioned resource and must use information provided in preparations to classes. The whole set of
information might be used for assessment of students knowledge, including tests, is included in the
curriculum, apart from home assignments subject for coverage and clarification in classes. The course
includes also a number of mandatory readings to be assigned during classes. Mandatory readings are
mentioned within the lecture notes and will be included into tests coverage.
2

Literature and reading materials: The following textbooks will be used within the learning process: 1.
Anderson, Sweeney, Williams, Camm, Martin, Quantitative Methods for Business, eleventh edition,
SouthWestern Cengage Learning, Mason, OH, 2010. 2. Winston, Operations Research: Applications and
Algorithms, third edition, Duxbury Press, Belmont, California, 1994. 3. Stevenson,
Production/Operations Management, fourth edition, Richard D. Irwin. Inc., Boston, MA, 1993.

Grading Criteria:

Activity % Class Participation 5% Home work Assignments 20% Mid Term Exam 25% Project
Presentation 20 % Final Exam 30 % Total 100%

Grading Scale: 93 ≤ A ≤ 100 90 ≤ A– < 93 87 ≤ B+ < 90 83 ≤ B < 87 80 ≤ B– < 83 77 ≤ C+ < 80 73

≤ C < 77 70 ≤ C– < 73 67 ≤ D+ < 70 60 ≤ D < 67 F < 60

Attendance and participation: Attendance will be taken every class session. The criteria of grading your
active participation depend on your activity and preparation for the classes. Missing one class session
will reduce your participation points by 1%. Missing more than two classes is ground for a grade of X. If
you are absent due to physical or emergency reasons, you should notify beforehand by e-mail and
attach sufficient written documentation. During absence the student maintains the responsibility to
obtain information concerning the material covered and upcoming assignments.

Academic honesty: Failing to maintain academic integrity includes obtaining or giving help on an
examination, doing work for another student, and plagiarism. There are only two penalty options for
cheating: 0 on the assignment or F in the course.
3

With group assignments, within the group, all information may be shared. However, all information
(i.e., written papers, spreadsheets, hard or electronic copies or any other group material) may not be
shared with other groups.

Group project and teamwork: Form groups of 4/5 students. There will be group learning activities.

Homework assignments: ● There will be HW on a weekly basis. ● Be sure to submit your own
homework each week to “e-course”, following file naming method:
DateMonthYear_HW#_FirstnameLastname.doc (i.e., 14012015_HW#1_AizhanK.doc) ● Each HW is due
on the specified date, 6:00pm. Late homework will not be accepted.

Course Outline and Tentative Schedule

WEEK 1: Chapter 1 Introduction ● Problem Solving and Decision Making ● Decision processes:
Descriptive and Prescriptive orientation ● Decision Making Tools and Models ● Quantitative and
Qualitative Methods in Practice

Chapter 2 Introduction to Probability ● Experiments and the Sample Space ● Assigning Probabilities to
Experimental Outcomes ● Events and Their Probabilities ● Some Basic Relationships of Probability ●
Bayes’ Theorem

WEEK 2: (HW#1 Due) Chapter 3 Probability Distributions ● Random Variables ● Discrete Probability
Distributions ● Uniform Probability Distribution ● Normal Probability Distribution

Chapter 4 Decision Analysis ● Problem Formulation ● Decision Making with/without Probabilities ●

Decision Analysis with Sample Information ● Computing Branch Probabilities

WEEK3: (HW #2 Due) Chapter 5 Utility ● The Meaning of Utility

4
● Utility and Decision Making ● Utility: Other Considerations

Chapter 6 (Part A) Forecasting Methods and Techniques (Quantitative Approaches) ● Components of a

Time Series ● Smoothing Methods ● Trend Projection ● Trend and Seasonal Components

Chapter 6 (Part B) Qualitative Approaches (Group Decision Techniques) ● Delphi Approach and Survey. ●
Focus Group. Brain Storming/Scenario Writing ● Nominal Group Think and Kiva Approach

WEEK 4: (HW #3 Due) Chapter 7 Introduction to LP ● Linear Programming Problem ● Problem

Formulation ● A Simple Maximization Problem ● Graphical Solution Procedure ● Extreme Points and the
Optimal Solution ● Computer Solutions ● A Simple Minimization Problem

Chapter 8 LP: Sensitivity Analysis and Interpretation of Solution ● Introduction to Sensitivity Analysis ●
Objective Function Coefficients ● Right-Hand Sides ● Graphical Sensitivity Analysis ● Sensitivity Analysis:
Computer Solution ● Simultaneous Changes

WEEK 5: (HW #4 Due, Midterm) Chapter 9 LP Applications ● Marketing and Financial Applications ●
Operations Management Applications

WEEK 6: (HW #5 Due, Team Presentation) Chapter 10, Distribution and Network Models ●
Transportation Problem ● Assignment Problem ● A Production and Inventory Application

WEEK 7: (HW #6 Due)

Chapter 11 Integer Linear Programming ● Types of Integer Linear Programming Models ● Graphical and
Computer Solutions for an All-Integer Linear Program ● Applications Involving 0-1 Variables

Chapter 13 Project Scheduling: PERT/CPM (introduction to simulation and project management) ●

Project Scheduling with Known Activity Times (project management techniques) ● Considering Time-
Cost Trade-Offs
WEEK 8: (HW #7 Due, Final Exam) Chapter 16 Simulation ● Simulation Modeling & Applications ●
Advantages and Disadvantages of Using Simulation