In Japan, a second term of 'foolhardy' Trump is viewed unfavourably amid US-China rivalry
In Japan, just one in 10 people believe a second term for US President Donald Trump would be positive for Japan, according to a new poll of 3,600 people conducted by national broadcaster NHK.
The respondents cited the possibility of the fallout from a US-China trade war, additional cases of the coronavirus linked to US troops in Japan, or even a military conflict in the Asia-Pacific region as grounds for their concern.
In the survey, 57 per cent of Japanese indicated a victory for Trump in November would be "negative" for Japan. Just 10 per cent said that re-election would be "positive", while the remainder had no opinion or said it would have no impact on Japan.
"Traditionally, Japanese people have held a kind disposition towards American leaders, even supporting President George W. Bush in the Iraq War, for example," said Koichi Nakano, a professor of politics at Tokyo's Sophia University. "So in some ways, these figures are a surprise."
For the average Japanese, the primary immediate concerns revolve around the coronavirus pandemic and the impact the crisis will have on the economy and, consequently, their lives.
In April, Defence Minister Taro Kono confirmed that there had been cases of coronavirus infections among US military personnel based in Japan, but he played down the likelihood of those cases emerging into the general population, saying the outbreaks were "not at a level where there is a problem with deterrence".
Japan hosts the largest concentration of American military personnel outside the US.
On Thursday, US Airforce transport aircraft massed at Yokota Air Base in Japan, a key Asian military air transport hub, to show "adversaries as well as our allies in Japan ... the importance of our ability to execute our mission", said base vice-commander Colonel Jason Mills.
Yokota's air wing, including C-130 transport planes and helicopters, moves troops and equipment around the Asia-Pacific. Like other bases in Japan, it has declared a public health emergency.
JAPAN CAUGHT IN BETWEEN
Trump has been highly critical of China's government in recent weeks, a tactic that analysts suggest is designed to shift attention away from his administration's failure to contain the coronavirus in the US.
There are also fears that he might provoke a renewed bout of trade friction with Beijing in an effort to look tough on China ahead of the US presidential election in November. Stuck between the two superpowers and economically very close to both, Japan would inevitably feel the impact of any such trade clash.
Another scenario that has been mooted is that Trump could provoke a military clash in the Western Pacific to burnish his reputation as a "wartime president" and attempt to rally the nation behind him.
"Trump does not come across as being reliable," Nakano said. "He is also seen as a president who has been unusually unkind to Japan. He has made repeated demands on trade and security issues and does not appear to consider Tokyo's position in talks with China or North Korea, for example."
Jeff Kingston, director of Asian studies at the Tokyo campus of Temple University, believes that Japanese are wary of a leader who is "erratic, unreliable and who has gutted all the international treaties and alliances that the US had previously agreed to".
"Japanese think that re-electing Trump in November would be like giving the car keys to a drunk," Kingston said.
There is a perception that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has done a good job of handling the US president in their meetings to date, Kingston said, and that certain sections of the Japanese administration rather like Trump because of his hard line on China, as opposed to the "more balanced" approach taken by former President Barack Obama.
Yet the bottom line is that Trump's frequent press conferences are being broadcast to a frequently bemused Japanese audience "who do not like what they see", Kingston said.
Nakano said Trump came across "uncultured, vulgar and unsophisticated" to the Japanese public.
"To be uncultured makes Japanese people cringe with embarrassment," he said.
Additional reporting by Reuters
This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).
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