Pakistan emerges from 'smart lockdown' as Imran Khan faces criticism for coronavirus response

A cynic might suggest the Pakistani government's measures to fight Covid-19 are inversely proportional to its number of infections.

On Monday, the country of 200 million began lifting restrictions on factory, office and commercial shop operations that had been in place for more than a month, although curbs remain on public transport, school and large shopping centres.

But critics say the curbs " termed a "smart lockdown" by Prime Minister Imran Khan because they involved targeted tracking of cases and allowed some commercial activities to continue " have done too little to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

Pakistan now has more than 32,000 infections, up from 21,500 just a week ago.

News reports showed markets across the country were thronged by people and doctors worry that increasing crowds as the Eid holiday approaches will fuel a larger outbreak.

When parliament met on Monday, there was harsh criticism from the opposition on the government's handling of the outbreak.

"Pakistan is fighting corona like a war, and our prime minister is missing, our prime minister is confused," said Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the leader of an opposition party.

Khan's messages on Covid-19 have at times seemed contradictory and he has maintained that a true lockdown would be impossible for Pakistan as people would "starve to death". In televised briefings, Khan told Pakistan's young people they needn't worry as they wouldn't really be affected, although it is exactly this population that forms the majority of cases in the country, while another minister said there was a higher likelihood of people dying from a road accident. A serving governor who himself tested positive even tweeted recently that the coronavirus was no different to the flu.

Asad Umar, who is one of Khan's closest cabinet members and heads the national command centre overseeing the fight against Covid-19, defended the government's approach.

"Our decision to ease restrictions was based on a careful assessment of Covid trends in Pakistan," he said. "The virus will spread, of course, as it will everywhere, but we have enough ICUs and ventilators."

He pointed out that to date, Pakistan had in the region of 700 deaths, a number that pales in comparison to the tolls in some European countries. Britain, for instance, which has a population of about a third the size of Pakistan has recorded more than 30,000 deaths.

Supporters of easing the restrictions pointed to the plight of the millions of Pakistanis who have been forced to depend on food rations just to survive. However, others said there were ways to provide for them even under a lockdown.

"While it is true that a lockdown would disproportionately affect the poor, what is categorically not true is that there is no alternative and that we need to open up before the pandemic is under control," said Farooq Tirmizi, the managing editor at business magazine Profit.

He said that the magazine's analysis suggested an affordable alternative was for the government to pay 10,000 rupees (US$62) a month for the next four months to the lowest earning 80 per cent of households, at a cost of about 2.1 per cent of GDP.

LONG ARM OF THE ARMY

Khan's response " that an opposition MP on Monday described as "neither here nor there" " and the military's involvement in making decisions related to the coronavirus has fuelled speculation it is driving government policy on this front.

When the country did go under lockdown on March 23, the people first heard it from the military. Military men, both serving and retired, have a strong presence in Khan's government " Pakistan's interior minister Ijaz Shah is a retired brigadier and former director general of the Intelligence Bureau, the National Institute of Health is led by Maj Gen Dr Aamer Ikram, while national committees for Covid relief efforts are coordinated by army officials. Two weeks ago, in what analysts saw as a surprising appointment, the military's former spokesperson Lt Gen Asim Bajwa was made the special adviser to the prime minister on information and broadcasting.

Michael Kugelman, a senior associate for South Asia at the Wilson Centre, said the coronavirus crisis was a complex challenge for any government but for Islamabad, its response that "often appears to lack decisiveness and confidence has amplified the lack of experience of a ruling party that had not held national office until its election in 2018."

Kugelman noted the military had already been expanding its role in economic policy before the pandemic hit.

Muslims maintain safe distance while praying at Mahabat Khan mosque in Peshawar, Pakistan. Photo: Reuters

"While the armed forces' increasing policy footprint might have caused civil-military frictions in previous governments, it hasn't this time around because Khan largely sees eye to eye with the army and he is willing to defer and cede policy space."

The government's writ was also questionable when unlike other Muslim-majority countries, Pakistan had decided to open mosques during the fasting month of Ramadan to appease the religious right.

Religious congregations have contributed significantly to the spread of the virus in Pakistan. In mid-March, nearly 100,000 gathered in Lahore for a three-day congregation of the Tablighi Jamaat missionary movement following which thousands had to be put in quarantine. Of all cases reported in Pakistan by the third week of April, nearly 27 per cent came from this one gathering. This also imported infections to other parts of the world. The first two cases reported in the Gaza Strip were traced to this event.

Khan's response to tighter restrictions imposed by local governments helmed by opposition parties, such as the Pakistan Peoples Party in Sindh province, has also come across as mocking, doing little for unity in a time of crisis.

After Sindh " which has more than a third of all cases and is home to the largest city Karachi " imposed a lockdown and banned groups larger than five people at mosques, the prime minister and his team referred to its move as a "conspiracy" to damage the economy and accused officials of "panicking" and "overreacting".

Minister Asad Umar insisted there was no conflict. "On the working level, the centre and provinces are very closely working together and we have daily meetings," he said.

Any speculation to the contrary was inaccurate, he said, and simply a product of the country's "free media" and "evening talk shows".

Additional reporting by Reuters

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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