35 Days: How Politics In Maharashtra Changed Forever In 2019

Prologue

Maharashtra has been politically important for India since the pre-Independence era. Leaders from this region have played a pivotal role during the freedom struggle. Lokmanya Tilak, Gopalkrishna Gokhale and Vinoba Bhave were some of the thought leaders from Maharashtra who gave shape to the freedom movement. Noted social reformers like Jyotirao Phule, Dr B.R. Ambedkar and Nanaji Deshmukh hailed from the state.

After Independence, too, the state has produced numerous leaders who have influenced national politics. Yashwantrao Chavan, Shankarrao Chavan, Sharad Pawar and Pramod Mahajan have been some of the key players of national politics. The state has also given the nation a few presidents and Lok Sabha speakers.

The road to Delhi goes through Maharashtra. The state has 48 Lok Sabha seats, the second highest after Uttar Pradesh. So a party, or a coalition of parties, which aspires to capture power at the Centre, has to strive to get the maximum number of seats from this west Indian state.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won a thumping number of seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The BJP–Shiv Sena combine won 41 seats, while the opposing Congress–Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) alliance got fewer seats than expected, with 1 seat going to Asaduddin Owaisi’s party, All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), and 1 to an independent candidate. A fidayeen terrorist attack in Pulwama on 14 February 2019, prior to the Lok Sabha elections, had resulted in air strikes to avenge the attack; the BJP–Shiv Sena combine was seen to capitalize on the sentiments post the attack and the air strikes. Issues that were projected as a cause of worry for the Modi government prior to the attack—such as demonetization and the hasty implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST)—didn’t cause any negative impact on voting during the Lok Sabha elections.

Just a few days after the Pulwama attack, the BJP had been successful in forging an alliance with the Shiv Sena for the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha polls. This was seen as an achievement by the BJP because the posture which the Shiv Sena had maintained during past three years as its partner in Central and state governments indicated that this time it was in no mood to join hands. There was friction between the two over several issues. It is said that BJP chief Amit Shah was also ready to contest both elections (Centre and state) without the Shiv Sena, but he relented to Devendra Fadnavis’s insistence of taking the Shiv Sena on board.

Both parties displayed great bonhomie during the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha election campaigns. Uddhav Thackeray even went along with Narendra Modi and Amit Shah during filing of nominations. Leaders of both parties shared the stage and used pictures of stalwarts of either side in campaign material. Everything looked hunky-dory, but only till 24 October, when election results were declared. What happened after that is historic and makes for a captivating story of greed, deceit, enmity and opportunism. Read on.

1

A ‘Pawarful’ Game Begins!

On 24 October 2019 at 8 a.m., the counting of votes for the Maharashtra assembly elections began. The elections had been held three days earlier on 21 October. Clad in a white kurta-pyjama, Nawab Malik, spokesperson of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and its candidate from the Anushakti Nagar assembly seat, had been sitting glued to the television set since morning. At around 11 a.m. when Mrityunjay Singh, a political reporter from ABP News, reached Malik’s residence in a Muslim-dominated locality at Kurla, Malik was in a jubilant mood. He was leading by 16,000 votes. The votes in by that time indicated a trend—the BJP–Shiv Sena combine was leading and the NCP was third. However, Malik was delighted that his party was performing better than it had in the 2014 elections and would win a greater number of seats. His supporters had gathered outside his residence with boxes of sweets and were loudly chanting congratulatory slogans.

Just as Singh was about to begin the interview, Malik’s mobile phone rang. He excused himself and went to a corner of the room and stood for about five minutes, in a serious conversation with the caller. His tone and body language indicated that the caller was somebody senior to him in the party. When the call ended, Malik returned to address Singh’s camera with a mysterious smile on his face. Then, in a five-minute-long interview, he criticized the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for using unscrupulous means in the elections, making false promises to the voters, and luring leaders of his party to defect. These were general allegations which candidates of the Congress and NCP had levelled against the BJP–Shiv Sena combine during the elections as well, and there was nothing shocking or new in Malik’s words. However, just before finishing the interview, he said something unexpected that hinted at things to come: ‘If Shiv Sena wants … it can form the government with the Congress and NCP. Politics is a game of possibilities. Anything is possible in politics. All options are open.’¹

Mrityunjay Singh was astonished at Malik’s statement. What the spokesperson had said appeared to be unfeasible. The Shiv Sena and BJP had been political partners for thirty years. Both had shared power in Maharashtra for a long time, and more recently at the Centre for the last five years. The latest Lok Sabha elections had also been fought by them in alliance. The ideology of the Shiv Sena also didn’t match that of the Congress and NCP. The Shiv Sena is a right-wing organization and hardcore proponent of the Hindutva ideology, while the Congress and NCP project themselves as secular parties. The trio had several differences on various state-level and national issues.

After the initial shock, Singh attributed Malik’s statement to the latter’s euphoria over the results that were coming in; it was a spur-of-the-moment comment, he felt, not fact.

The Twist

By late afternoon, the political scenario of the state was clear. The pre-poll alliance between the BJP and Shiv Sena had proved victorious. The BJP had emerged as the single largest party, with 105 seats, and its coalition partner the Shiv Sena fetched 56 seats. The NCP became the third largest party with 54 seats, and the Congress came in last with 44 seats. Smaller parties and independents won 29 seats. In a Vidhan Sabha of 288 seats, holding 145 seats would prove one’s majority. The BJP’s 105 added to the Shiv Sena’s 56 seats took the total number of seats to 161, well above the magic figure. The BJP–Shiv Sena alliance could now easily form the government.²

The mood was joyous outside Shiv Sena Bhavan, the party’s headquarters in Dadar, Mumbai. Scores of Shiv Sainiks wearing saffron-coloured clothes celebrated the victory with music and crackers, shouting slogans like ‘Awaaz kunacha? Shiv Senecha’ (Whose voice? Shiv Sena’s), ‘Uddavsaheb Thackerencha vijay aso’ (Victory be with Uddhav Thackeray), ‘Shiv Sena zindabad’ (Long live Shiv Sena), etc.

Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray and his son Aaditya, who had just become a first-time member of the legislative assembly (MLA) after winning the Worli seat, received a grand welcome when they arrived at the gate of the building to address a press conference. Journalists were eager to know the date and place of the oath-taking ceremony, whether Aaditya would become deputy chief minister (CM), what ministries the Shiv Sena would prefer in the new government, and so on. But there was a twist in the tale and it was to be revealed by Uddhav Thackeray, whose expression did not match the celebrations outside the building. In fact, he looked grim as he addressed the journalists.

‘When the alliance was formed before the Lok Sabha elections, a 50:50 formula was agreed upon,’ he told them, ‘and the seat-sharing ratio was also fixed at 144:144. BJP State President Chandrakant Patil requested me that I should understand BJP’s problems in seat sharing. I understood that and agreed to a lesser number of seats … but if their problems are increasing then I can’t do anything.’³

For the Shiv Sena, the 50:50 formula implied that ministries would be distributed equally amongst both parties and the CM’s chair would be rotated between them, with each party holding the post for two-and-a-half years. This was different from the formula applied in 1995 when the alliance had first come to power. As per the 1995 formula, the party which had won more seats would get the CM’s post and the other would get the deputy CM’s post. Hence, Manohar Joshi of the Shiv Sena had become the CM and Gopinath Munde of the BJP had become the deputy CM.

Now the journalists wanted Uddhav’s reaction on Nawab Malik’s statement as well, and he was asked whether he would accept support from the Congress and the NCP to get the CM’s seat. Uddhav replied, ‘I am not in a rush. I am not greedy and will not do anything out of turn to get power.’ And that’s where matters stood.

A Sour Victory for the BJP

Meanwhile, around 14 kilometres from Shiv Sena Bhavan, incumbent CM Devendra Fadnavis was struggling to maintain his ever-present smile in front of the camera at the BJP’s state headquarters at Nariman Point. Fadnavis seemed to be happy and satisfied with the results, but those who knew him well instantly noticed that his body language was not as usual. Although the BJP had emerged as the single largest party with 105 seats, this haul was much lower than expected. The party had hoped to win 140+ seats on its own and aimed at the alliance (BJP–Shiv Sena) fetching more than 220 seats.

Moreover, based on this confident expectation of winning 140+ seats, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had declared, at a rally in Nasik just before the election programme was announced, that Fadnavis would head the next BJP-led government in the state. This was the first time that the BJP had fought an election in Maharashtra by announcing its CM candidate well before the elections. It was clear that the party was banking upon Fadnavis to come back with a bang.

Devendra Fadnavis comes from a family with a political background. His father Gangadhar Fadnavis was a member of the Legislative Council from Nagpur. Educated in law and business management, Fadnavis had begun his political career during his college days by becoming an active member of the BJP’s student wing, Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP). His success in electoral politics began when he was elected as a corporator from the Ramnagar ward of Nagpur. Soon he became the youngest mayor of the Nagpur Municipal Corporation and continuously won assembly elections from Nagpur 1999 onwards. In 2014, before being appointed as CM, he was president of the BJP’s Maharashtra unit.

Shubhangi Khapre, senior editor, Indian Express, who has covered the BJP for over two decades, notes, ‘Fadnavis is a man of clean character, well-read and with a modern outlook. Modi was looking for this kind of man to head the Maharashtra government. Hence, he handpicked Fadnavis.’⁴ To maintain the velocity of the growth of his political career, it was crucial for Fadnavis to lead the BJP to victory in Maharashtra and become CM for the second time. The talk in Maharashtra’s power circles was that Devendra Fadnavis was grooming himself as Narendra Modi’s successor.

As CM, Fadnavis had successfully tackled many challenges, one of the biggest being the demand for reservation of seats for Marathas in educational institutions and government jobs. The agitation initially began with peaceful marches, but turned violent by 2018 and reports of incidents began coming in from various parts of the state. One protestor committed suicide by jumping into a deep river near Aurangabad. Protestors blocked highways, damaged public and private property and attacked the police. Fadnavis knew he had to handle the situation sensitively. The Maratha-Kunbi caste spearheading the agitation accounts for 31 per cent of the state’s population⁵ and has been dominant in Maharashtra politics since the state’s formation in 1960—ten of Maharashtra’s CMs have been Marathas.

To quell the agitation, Fadnavis had introduced the ‘Maratha Reservation Bill’, which provided 16 per cent reservation in education, and jobs for Marathas under the Socially and Educationally Backward Class (SEBC) category.

Another challenge he had met was Maharashtra’s prolonged drought-driven agrarian crisis that would lead to over a thousand farmers committing suicide every year. In 2017, farmers had gone on a rampage on 5 and 9 June, throwing their agricultural produce and milk on the roads. The farmers’ strike led to a state-wide rise in vegetable prices and Fadnavis announced a loan waiver to small and marginal farmers, who were not oriented with the formal credit system. The announcement was expected to benefit 34,00,000 farmers and would cost the state exchequer Rs 30,000 crore.

Although this announcement received criticism from various corners and didn’t help much to subdue or resolve the agrarian crisis, it did give Fadnavis a reprieve from the pressure. By the time the elections were announced, the Marathwada and Vidarbha regions—the worst hit by severe drought over the past two years—had had a good monsoon and Fadnavis went on to become the second CM of Maharashtra in forty-seven years to complete a full five-year term.⁶

Having resolved such local issues, Fadnavis chose to only speak of the BJP’s national and international achievements during his election campaign for the Vidhan Sabha elections. So during rallies Fadnavis, along with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, would recount how the BJP-led government at the Centre had retaliated against Pakistan with an air strike, after a bus full of soldiers was blown up in Jammu & Kashmir’s Pulwama district by Pakistan-supported terrorists. The abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu & Kashmir and the bifurcation of the state (into the union territories of Jammu & Kashmir, and Ladakh) was also presented to garner votes.

Election results were declared just three days before the festival of Diwali. Party workers awaiting the results were already boasting that it would be a ‘double Diwali’ for the party—they were very confident they would sweep the polls. The BJP–Shiva Sena combine’s sterling performance in the Lok Sabha elections (41 seats out of 48) in Maharashtra had led them to expect a huge win in the Maharashtra Vidhan Sabha elections as well. They planned to begin the celebrations as soon as Devendra Fadnavis reached the BJP office to address a press conference to share the results and future plans. In the 2014 assembly elections, when the BJP and Shiv Sena had fought independently, the BJP had been able to win 122 seats, but this time, in an alliance, it lost 17 of those seats.

Fadnavis tried to defend himself at the press conference. Wiping the sweat off his face, he said, ‘In 2014, we contested on 260 seats and won 122. This time we just contested 164 and won 102 (which later increased to 105, a few hours after the press conference). The last time our strike rate was 47 per cent, and this time it has increased to 70 per cent.’⁷ He attempted to sound positive by quoting the strike rate, but the bitter reality was that the BJP was left with a lesser number of seats and was now dependent on the Shiv Sena to form the government.

This was a personal defeat for Devendra Fadnavis. Region-wise, the BJP’s worst performance had just taken place on his home turf. Fadnavis hails from Vidarbha where the BJP’s tally was reduced to 29 seats from 44 seats in 2014. The total number of seats in this region is 62 and a large chunk of legislators to the Maharashtra Vidhan Sabha come from Vidarbha. Fadnavis’s own winning margin had dropped from 59,000 votes in 2014 to below 50,000 votes in 2019. In his district, Nagpur, the BJP had won 11 out of the total 12 seats in 2014, but this time managed to get just 6 seats. What led to the BJP’s dismal performance in the elections will be dealt with later in this book.

Discontent within the BJP

There was a general impression that while strategizing for the Maharashtra elections, the party had given Fadnavis a free hand. His choices and decisions prevailed while selecting candidates. It was on his insistence that the BJP decided to align with the Shiv Sena. Sources say that the party president was not that eager to contest the elections in a coalition, but Fadnavis convinced him to do so. Many BJP stalwarts were left red-faced during the distribution of election tickets, when they were denied one.

Especially shocking was the decision to not allow senior state leaders like Eknath Khadse, Vinod Tawde, Prakash Mehta and Chandrashekhar Bawankule to contest.⁸ There was a perception that Fadnavis did not see these leaders in a very positive light. In fact, Tawde and Khadse were seen as possible CM candidates in 2014, when the BJP became the single largest party and Devendra Fadnavis was yet to be announced as CM. So did Fadnavis clip his rivals’ wings within the party? Did he fear that once he became the CM again, these leaders would trouble him, wanting his chair?

In political circles everybody was convinced that denying tickets to these leaders was Fadnavis’s game plan to secure his position. However, Shubhangi Khapre’s views contradict this perception. ‘No doubt, it was shocking that many sitting MLAs were denied tickets,’ she says, ‘but Fadnavis alone can’t be blamed for it. It was a collective decision. The core committee and parliamentary board of the party were involved and the decision to finalize candidates was taken after exhaustive discussions.’⁹

Tawde, Mehta and Bawankule chose to keep mum over the denial of a ticket, but Eknath Khadse reacted sharply. Khadse belongs to Muktainagar in northern Maharashtra and is a founding member of the BJP. He was minister of revenue and agriculture in the Fadnavis government from 2014 to 2016. However, he had to resign from his post after allegations of corruption and misuse of office. When ABP News political reporter Mrityunjay Singh went to Khadse’s residence for his reaction over the denial of a ticket, Khadse appeared furious. He said:

‘When some people defamed me, I was asked to resign and I resigned immediately. My three years were wasted. It was due to insiders that allegations were levelled against me. Enquiry was done and nothing was found. I am hurt. Those people who have devoted their lives to the party are being sidelined and outsiders are being taken. Now such people from NCP and Congress are sitting along with us against whom I have alleged with evidence that they are unscrupulous. I will apologize if I have committed any big mistake but even after so many years I don’t know what wrong I have done.’¹⁰

Another aspirant to the CM’s post was Pankaja Munde of the BJP who was defeated by her own cousin Dhananjay Munde from Parli in Beed district. Daughter of BJP stalwart late Gopinath Munde, Pankaja was a two-time MLA from Parli and the minister for rural development, women and child welfare in the Fadnavis government. She is known as a great crowd-puller and skilful orator and her defeat was particularly shocking, considering the fact that bigwigs like Narendra Modi and Amit Shah had campaigned for her.

On the day the election results