The Bull Run: The Thirty-Year Money Game Between Bulls and Bears
()
About this ebook
Tholoor M. Thomas
Tholoor M. Thomas is an experienced investment professional with over forty years of global investment management experience in all major asset classes and foreign exchange. He served Arab Insurance Group (Arig) in the Kingdom of Bahrain in its investments and asset management department for almost thirty years. As director of investments and asset management, Thomas had hands-on experience in all facets of investments, including policy formulation, strategy planning, and portfolio management of conventional and Islamic assets. He also served Arig as an investment consultant for a brief period during 2012. Prior to joining Arig, he spent six years in the finance department of Arab Shipbuilding and Repair Yard Co. (ASRY), Bahrain, and he committed six years to the international banking division of State Bank of India in Mumbai, India. He is a chartered financial analyst (CFA). In addition, he holds a bachelor of science and a bachelor of law (general). He is a member of the CFA Institute, USA and CFA Society, Bahrain. Thomas has won several industry recognitions, including the Annual Financial Forecast Winner – 2010 (CFA Society, Bahrain) and the currencies forecast winner for Citibank Treasury competition. Thomas is currently the managing director of ValueTree Consultancy W.L.L., a business consultancy firm in the Kingdom of Bahrain
Related to The Bull Run
Related ebooks
Sovereign Wealth Funds: A complete guide to state-owned investment funds Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsThe Asian Financial Crisis 1995–98: Birth of the Age of Debt Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5Stock Cycles: Why Stocks Won't Beat Money Markets over the Next Twenty Years Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Bonds without Borders: A History of the Eurobond Market Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsMoney on the Move: The Revolution in International Finance since 1980 Rating: 3 out of 5 stars3/5Emerging Market Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsInside the Foreign Exchange Universe: (An Essential Guide to Forex) Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Market Players: A Guide to the Institutions in Today's Financial Markets Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5Invest in Europe Now!: Why Europe's Markets Will Outperform the US in the Coming Years Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsThe Commodities Investor: A beginner's guide to diversifying your portfolio with commodities Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5Money Makers: The Stock Market Secrets of Britain's Top Professional Investment Managers Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsStates and the Reemergence of Global Finance: From Bretton Woods to the 1990s Rating: 3 out of 5 stars3/5Supertrends (Review and Analysis of Tvede's Book) Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5The Road to Global Prosperity Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Future of the Euro Currency Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsThe 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle: Connecting the Panics of 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2007 Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Trade Myths: Globalization Has Left Trade Balances Behind Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsForeign Exchange: The Complete Deal: A comprehensive guide to the theory and practice of the Forex market Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5Stock Trading: Dos And Don’ts To Make Stock Trading Profitable Even In Economic Uncertainties Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Ageing Wealth An Unequal Problem Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsTrade Myths Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsJapanese Equities: A Practical Guide to Investing in the Nikkei Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsSuper Boom: Why the Dow Jones Will Hit 38,820 and How You Can Profit From It Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsGlobal Shocks: An Investment Guide for Turbulent Markets Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsThe City: London and the Global Power of Finance Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5How to be a Forex Trading King: How To Be A Trading King, #2 Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsIntroduction to Trade and Globalisation Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsThe Foreign Exchange Matrix: A new framework for understanding currency movements Rating: 3 out of 5 stars3/5Index Mutual Funds: How to Simplify Your Financial Life and Beat the Pros Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsUnderstanding the Great Depression and Failures of Modern Economic Policy: The Story of the Heedless Giant Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratings
Business For You
Becoming Bulletproof: Protect Yourself, Read People, Influence Situations, and Live Fearlessly Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Capitalism and Freedom Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Crucial Conversations Tools for Talking When Stakes Are High, Second Edition Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Crucial Conversations: Tools for Talking When Stakes are High, Third Edition Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Law of Connection: Lesson 10 from The 21 Irrefutable Laws of Leadership Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Just Listen: Discover the Secret to Getting Through to Absolutely Anyone Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Richest Man in Babylon: The most inspiring book on wealth ever written Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5Nickel and Dimed: On (Not) Getting By in America Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Emotional Intelligence: Exploring the Most Powerful Intelligence Ever Discovered Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5Robert's Rules Of Order Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5Collaborating with the Enemy: How to Work with People You Don’t Agree with or Like or Trust Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Set for Life: An All-Out Approach to Early Financial Freedom Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Lying Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Intelligent Investor, Rev. Ed: The Definitive Book on Value Investing Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Summary of J.L. Collins's The Simple Path to Wealth Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5Leadership and Self-Deception: Getting out of the Box Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Your Next Five Moves: Master the Art of Business Strategy Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5Confessions of an Economic Hit Man, 3rd Edition Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5Tools Of Titans: The Tactics, Routines, and Habits of Billionaires, Icons, and World-Class Performers Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Buy, Rehab, Rent, Refinance, Repeat: The BRRRR Rental Property Investment Strategy Made Simple Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5High Conflict: Why We Get Trapped and How We Get Out Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Five Dysfunctions of a Team: A Leadership Fable, 20th Anniversary Edition Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5How To Pay Off Your Mortgage in 5 Years Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5The Hard Thing About Hard Things: Building a Business When There Are No Easy Answers Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Robert's Rules of Order: The Original Manual for Assembly Rules, Business Etiquette, and Conduct Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Financial Words You Should Know: Over 1,000 Essential Investment, Accounting, Real Estate, and Tax Words Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Catalyst: How to Change Anyone's Mind Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5
Reviews for The Bull Run
0 ratings0 reviews
Book preview
The Bull Run - Tholoor M. Thomas
© 2013 by Tholoor M. Thomas,CFA. All rights reserved.
No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted by any means without the written permission of the author.
Published by AuthorHouse 12/22/2015
ISBN: 978-1-4817-9745-0 (sc)
ISBN: 978-1-4817-9746-7 (hc)
ISBN: 978-1-4817-9747-4 (e)
Any people depicted in stock imagery provided by Thinkstock are models, and such images are being used for illustrative purposes only.
Certain stock imagery © Thinkstock.
Because of the dynamic nature of the Internet, any web addresses or links contained in this book may have changed since publication and may no longer be valid. The views expressed in this work are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher, and the publisher hereby disclaims any responsibility for them.
CONTENTS
Preface
Section 1
A Precursor to the 1980s
A Precursor to the 1980s
Section 2
Financial Markets through the 1980s
The Bull Raises Its Horns
Interest-rate Trend
Equities: The Start of the Secular Bull Market
Inflation: Double Digit to Single Digit
Oil Price: A Gradual Decline
US Dollar: The Historical Correction
Wall Street Scandals of the 1980s
Performance of Markets during the 1980s
Section 3
Financial Markets through the 1990s
1990S: The Mother of All Events
Overview of the Decade
Economic Performance in the 1990s
Inflation: The Downward Journey
Rise and Fall of Oil Prices
US Dollar in the 1990s
Interest-rate Trend
Bond Yields: Investor Friendly
Stock Markets: Continuing to Perform
Mexican Financial crisis of 1994
Asian Financial Crisis of 1997
Performance of Key Market Indices in the 1990s
Section 4
Financial Markets through the 2000s
The 2000S: The First Decade of the Twenty-First Century
Overview of the decade
The Economic Performance
Inflation: Mixed Trend
Rising Oil Prices
The Plunging Dollar
Interest Rates: Sharp Decline
Bond Yields: Falling to a Historic Low
Equities: A Decade of—Winners and Losers
2008 Financial Crisis: A Closer Look
Performance of Key Market Benchmarks in the 2000-2009 Period
Section 5
Alternative Investments
Alternative Assets: A Roller Coaster Ride
Brief Overview of the Asset Class
Hedge Funds: Do They Really Hedge?
Overview of Hedge Funds
Real Estate Investments
Overview of Real Estate Assets
Private Equity
Overview of Private Equity
Commodities Investments
Overview of Commodities
Section 6
The Islamic Capital Market
The Islamic Capital Market: An Overview
Introduction
Islamic Equity Market
Islamic Bond Market (Sukuk)
Prospects for Islamic Capital Markets
Section 7
Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs)
Sovereign Wealth Funds (Swfs): Forceful Investors
List of Large Sovereign Wealth Funds
Section 8
Wrap-up
Thirty Years Of Financial Markets at a Glance
Asset Performances of Each Decade
Key Assets during the 1980-1989 Period
Key Assets during the 1990-1999 Period
Key Assets during the 2000-2009 Period
Performance of Key Indices during the Thirty Years Ending in 2009
Annualised Rates of Return (Percentage) for Major Indices during the Thirty-Year Period
Performance of Select Dow Stocks
Growth of Wealth in Key Assets over the Thirty Years
Managing—Volatility Risk
VIX Index
Federal Reserve Policy during the Thirty Years
Monetary Policy Indicators: Mixed Performance
Section 9
Looking Ahead
Looking Ahead
Developments since 2009
Investment Management after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008
Likely Scenarios Ahead
Concluding Remarks
Glossary
To my late wife, Molly Thomas and to my children, Jeffy Thomas and Jenny Thomas.
You have been a great inspiration to me in my financial career.
PREFACE
Your decision to choose this book for a fascinating read is much appreciated.
This book provides you with a walk through the most interesting times in the history of financial markets. It covers the key events that have taken place in the global financial markets during three decades (covering the period from 1980 to 2009). This period can be qualified as a secular bull market. A sincere attempt has been made to discuss the important events that have influenced the global financial markets during this span of time. The performance of key asset classes for each decade-and for the thirty year period-is incorporated in the book. Section 1 provides a glimpse of the 1970s. A discussion of the major events of the 1980s is given in Section 2. Section 3 provides a review of the 1990s and Section 4 discusses the market events of the 2000s. A brief analysis of the pros and cons of the 2007-2008 financial crisis has also been included in that section. Section 5 offers a discussion of alternative investments. The subject of the Islamic capital market is briefly discussed in Section 6. A note on sovereign wealth funds is provided in Section 7. In addition to a wide range of historical data, a discussion of volatility risk and a review of U.S. Federal Reserve policy during the thirty years can be found in Section 8. The likely market scenarios are discussed in Section 9 along with the lessons learnt from the 2008 financial crisis. In general, the importance of timely asset allocation in highly volatile market conditions is emphasised in this book.
On the currency front, the most important development during the review period was the birth of the euro and the disappearance of eleven European currencies on 1 January 1999. The euro introduced a new dimension to the global foreign exchange market.
As you will learn, markets have gone through several periods of booms and busts during the three decades reviewed herein. I would qualify this period as one of the golden times in the history of financial markets. Each time markets suffered setbacks, they came back stronger—not only by recovering the losses, but also by rebounding sharply in the periods following such setbacks. Thus, this book presents the story of thirty years of the money game between the bulls and the bears.
It is interesting to observe that the bulls have won over the bears during this phase of thirty years despite all the market turbulence. Investors in each of the major asset classes reaped rich returns during this time. Several factors, such as the progress in globalisation, the emergence of BRIC economies,