All or None: Sequences: the Challenge of Logic and Probability to Evolution

© 2016 Kenneth Willeford MD. All rights reserved.

No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted by any means without the written permission of the author.

Published by AuthorHouse 08/05/2016

ISBN: 978-1-5246-0481-3 (sc)

ISBN: 978-1-5246-0480-6 (e)

Library of Congress Control Number: 2016906701

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Contents

Section One Setting The Stage

Introduction

Creation Science

Logic

It Only Takes One

Probability

Sequences - The Domino Effect

All Or None

Evolution

Natural Selection

Science Knowledge Is In Journals

Let’s Begin

Section Two 50 Controversies And Logical Conditions

1 The Big Bang And Dark Energy

2 Before The Big Bang

3 Planets

4 The Earth’s Magnetic Field

5 Mission Kepler

6 Mission Juno

7 The Big Splash

8 The Earth’s Oceans

9 The Earth’s Atmosphere

10 Chemical Evolution

SUMMARY (SO FAR) #1:

11 Life From Nonlife

12 The Origin Of Dna

13 Chiral Biologic Molecules

14 Nitrogen Fixation

15 Cell Membrane

16 Self Replicating Cycle

17 The Dna Of A Sponge

18 The Dna Of Yeast

19 Human Accelerated Regions Of Human Dna

20 Prokaryotes And Eukaryotes

21 Phylogeny Of Eukaryotes

22 Cell Nucleus

23 The Cytoskeleton

24 Mitochondria

25 Peroxisomes

26 The Endomembrane System

27 Sexual Reproduction

28 Photosynthesis

29 Plants

30 Endosymbiotic Theory

31 Phagocytosis

32 Phytohormones

33 Number Of Species

34 Feathers And Flight

SUMMARY (SO FAR) #2:

35 Intelligent Design

36 Dna As A Mechanism Of Change

37 The Amazing Dna

38 Dna Repair Enzymes

39 Age Of The Earth

40 World Wide Flood

41 Exceptions To The Geologic Column

42 Fossils Contradict Evolution

43 More Details Of The Geologic Column

44 Fossil Graveyards

45 Lack Of Transitional Fossils

46 T-Rex And Dino Collagen

47 Fossil Fuels

48 Coal

49 Entropy

50 The Human Brain

Conclusion

Summary

Religious Conversion

Personal Note

Section Three Appendices And References

Appendix A Believer Scientists

Appendix B Theistic Evolution

Appendix C Scientific Theory

Appendix D Theology, Science, And Intellectual Honesty

Appendix E Prophecy

Appendix F Dinosaurs

Appendix G Logic – Further Study

Appendix H Probability

Appendix I Dna Mutations

Appendix J Consider The Act Of Breathing

Appendix K Carbon Dating And Radiometric Dating

Appendix L Age Of The Earth Estimates

Appendix M Radiohalos

Acknowledgments

References

Section One

SETTING THE STAGE

INTRODUCTION

Can logic give us the answer to the question, Is God Real? It absolutely can for each and every person individually. This is because evolution is not exempt from logic. Logic is a formal way of reasoning or thinking about topics to determine truth. It is like ‘common sense’ but with more structure so people can be sure of what they are thinking about. In this book we will use logic to determine the truth about the existence of God.

If evolution is true then everything that is in the world and universe, everything that exists anywhere would have to have come into existence through evolution. If there is anything that exists that could not exist because of evolution, then evolution is not true. It is common sense. Evolution must be the reason for everything if it is the reason for anything. It’s all or none.

There is also a sequence of events that must have occurred for evolution to be true. Things that exist now must have ‘evolved’ from something else that existed before. There is a sequence of events presented in this book beginning with the Big Bang and ending with the human brain. Evolutionists talk about what ‘must have’ or ‘might have’ come from what. We must prove further and ask how they happened. Evolutionary theory is a sequence of individual events that can be considered individually and one at a time. We are not asking what might have happened. We are asking how, precisely, did any of these events take place.

The stakes are high. If evolution is not true, then the only rational alternative is God. For practical purposes and for our daily lives the reason to be certain if evolution is true or not is that if evolution is not true then there logically must be a God. You can be completely certain that God is real if you are certain that evolution is not true. Let’s think about this. I am saying that for all things that exist there are only these two real possibilities. There is either an all powerful God who created everything or evolution is true. Spend a minute and think about this. Can you think of any other reason that you could be here? It is just a fact that very few people ever think about. If evolution is NOT TRUE, then God MUST exist and created the universe. So, everything in this book is focused on different parts of evolution to see if you believe these things that exist could have come to exist through evolution. If you become convinced that evolution is false, then you logically are convinced that God is real. We will evaluate whether evolution is true or not in a very unique way which will become clear in the next few pages.

This book will present 50 necessary conditions for evolution to be true. Each one of these is a controversy. If any one of them is not true, then evolution is not true. This is what logic tells us, and this is what common sense tells us. There will be statements on all 50 of these from recent scientific journals written by evolutionists to evolutionists that show that there is not any of these 50 that has been proven. It may be a surprising fact for you to learn that none of these 50 have been proven! They are all necessary and not one is proven. These scientific topics are presented in such a way that no advance knowledge about these 50 controversies is needed to understand the main fact that they are all unproven.

If we find that evolution is false because one or more of its necessary conditions are false, and we conclude that the rational alternative of creation is true, it opens up other doors. In terms of knowledge, we find that a standard of absolute truth has more to do with what this Creator reveals to us (i.e., in the Bible) than it does with what scientists think. When people come to know this God, their lives are forever changed. That is why many of the greatest scientific minds who have ever lived were complete believers in God and some of the more famous of these are listed in Appendix A.

The reason logic can answer this question is because logic uses ‘conditions’ to determine if a conclusion is true or not. We can think about the conditions of a logical argument one at a time and know for sure if we believe that the conclusion is true. The ‘conclusion’ of this logical argument is that evolution is false, and that God is real.

Some of the conditions of any logical argument are called ‘necessary conditions’. Necessary is like ‘needed’ or ‘required’. Without these required, needed, and necessary conditions the conclusion cannot possibly be true. This is just using words from logic to tell us what already makes sense to us with common sense. Evolution has things that are ‘necessary’ for it to be true.

Logic is just a way of saying this same thing. All things that exist are all each individual ‘necessary conditions’. Evolution must be able to explain each of the things that exist in the world. We can think about things that exist one at a time. All of the things that exist in the world and in the universe must be able to be the result of evolution for evolution to be true.

Section One will set the stage for the controversies presented in Section Two by setting out the role of logic in truth, the role of if/then statements in logic, and the relationship of necessary and sufficient conditions in if/then statements. Since the title of the book is The Challenge of Logic and Probability to Evolution, we need to first understand logic, probability, and evolution. It is essential to understand the logical framework of this book, the realities of probability, and what makes something a necessary condition of evolution. Section Two will then evaluate 50 of these necessary conditions which are all controversies. My claim is that the only valid conclusion that can be drawn is that evolution itself is false.

I will use the term evolutionist for people who believe in evolution and the term creationist for people who believe in creation. The beliefs and interpretations of scientific evidence by both evolutionists and creationists will be presented.

Some people say that both God and evolution are real, and that evolution is simply the means by which God made the universe and man. This position called Theistic Evolution is evaluated in Appendix B. Another problem is that the term evolution has a variety of meanings for different people. Sometimes it means change or developed" but here we are talking about the sense in which only God or evolution can be the reason all things exist.

Evolution is very controversial. It is presented as a ‘fact’ rather than the theory that it is. It is not a fact since there is significant disagreement among experts. Appendix C explains the nature of science and scientific theories. It shows why evolution is a theory at best, and not a proven fact. Since this book is about the logic of evolution, I intentionally avoid the legal and political issue of what is taught in schools.

Surprisingly, despite the dominance of evolution in our education and in our culture, most people still to do not believe it is true. The 2007 U.S. Religious Landscape Survey was done by Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life. The word ‘Pew’ has nothing to do with church pews and this is not a religious organization. Pew Research Center is the most respectable and reliable organization that does independent public opinion survey research. Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world. They asked the question if people agree that:

Evolution is the best explanation for the origins of human life on earth

Only 48% of the population of the United States agrees with that statement, and they have not ever even heard of what you are about to read. Why is the collective common sense of the country resisting the never ending efforts of evolution’s proponents to make sure everyone believes it? Perhaps its logical failings resonate with people, even if they do not understand the scientific details. Evolution just really doesn’t make sense to most people.

CREATION SCIENCE

Creation science is a Christian response to materialistic evolution. Over recent decades, creationists have been showing that evolution cannot explain scientific observations, and is therefore false. They also affirm the historical accounts found in the Bible as true, and provide evidence to support this.

One problem with creation science is that of communicating complex scientific research to people who may not have scientific education or training. Between the complexity of the details and their sheer volume, the arguments tend to lose most of the public. This problem arose in part because the initial success of the creation movement was rooted in what was called scientific creationism, which emphasized scientific responses to evolutionary assertions. This generated a vast amount of scientific information on both sides of the debate and it became harder and harder to understand or keep up with all of this information and ongoing arguments.

So both evolutionists and creationists are using science to promote their opposite belief systems. This has never given a definitive answer. Some people are convinced in evolution and use science as their reason, and others are convinced in creation and use the same science as their reason. How odd that people can look at the same things and be completely convinced in completely opposite interpretations!

There is a tremendous amount of well-researched and well-written information about creation science that spans a variety of topics. Answers to common questions exist in books and on the websites of creationist organizations. But these remain detailed, and people can easily get lost in the details. There is a need to provide a context—a ‘big picture’—that connects with the public and provides compelling reasons to choose between God and evolution.

That is why I have framed this study in terms of logic and rationality. It provides a time-tested way to evaluate scientific claims outside of science, and uses principles that we all use every day, whether we have formally studied logic or not. Using this framework, we can evaluate the details and yet not get lost in them.

Each controversy discussed in Section Two contains plenty of scientific detail, yet all have this in common: that they are all each individually a necessary condition that provides for a logical test for evolution. If any are false, then evolution is false. This is because each one of the 50 controversies is a necessary condition for evolution to be true.

This book is specifically written for nonscientists and presents science in a way that the essential part of each topic can be easily understood. When people are able to think about these controversies for themselves, then they can make their own decision. Based on logic, they will not only know what they believe, but also why they believe it. Since we are going to use logic as the basis for understanding evolution, we will next consider some of the basics of logic.

LOGIC

Everyone is able to use logic to make decisions. Arguments or information can just make sense to us as humans. We will use logic and our ability to think and reason to make a decision if evolution is true or not. We will think about science and evolution in a new way to see if it makes any sense that evolution could be true.

Logic is defined as the science of the formal principles of reasoning. We can reason, consider, or think about topics in a way that gives us confidence in our beliefs. This is because our beliefs are based on the use of our logical mind. There is a format or structure that is needed to begin the process in this mental reasoning that will lead to a personal conclusion. When your beliefs are based on your own logical conclusions you will never again have doubts or questions.

The basis of this logical framework is the logical if/then statement. These will all be presented in this format:

If (the premise) is true, then (the conclusion) is true.

Each topic will have the same conclusion that evolution logically cannot be possible. Each topic will have a new premise that must be believed to be true to logically conclude that evolution is not possible. So the format of each section will be:

if (something is true), then evolution logically cannot be possible.

Each of the many topics can be thought of in this way. For evolution to even be possible, much less that it actually happened, each and every one of these 50 if/then statements must be false. If you feel that only one, any one of these statements is true, then you must logically conclude that evolution could not possibly have happened.

I am fully aware (and even expect) that there will be evolutionists who will disagree with a few of my if/then statements. Even with this inevitable criticism there will still be many of these that cannot be challenged and will be agreed upon by all. I contend that evolutionists must be correct on every one of these 50 areas of disagreement for evolution to be possible. However, creationists only need to be correct on one, any one of these multiple areas of disagreement for evolution to be impossible. Let’s examine why this is true.

A VALID logical statement is that if the premise is true, then the conclusion is true. Some evolutionists will not agree with some of my logical statements so these statements will not be valid for them. This is different from a SOUND logical statement where the premise IS true, the logical statement is also valid, and so then the conclusion is true. This will be the case for most people for most, if not all, of the content of this book. The average person will fully understand what this is all about as they read this book even if the details and differences of a valid and sound logical argument seem confusing. This is included to be complete and accurate logically. Let’s move on.

An important part of this new logical framework is that all of the 50 scientific topics that are discussed are INDEPENDENT EVENTS. As independent events, each can be thought of individually. This is the reason that creationists only need to be correct on one of them. So, we would next need to know why they all can be thought of as individual and independent events.

For evolution to be true many events must have occurred. There is an order and a sequence to these events, and without a previous event, a subsequent event could not happen. Evolution begins with the Big Bang. Without the Big Bang nothing else could happen later. Then there must be the formation of solar systems and planets. Without planets nothing else could happen. Then after the earth forms, there must be oceans. Without oceans nothing else could happen. Then there must be the development of the molecules that life is made of. Without these molecules nothing else could happen. Then there must be the development of life from non life. Without some form of life nothing else could happen. Then there must be a way plants and animals could develop from bacteria. Without plants and animals nothing else could happen. Then plants must be able to make an atmosphere. Without an atmosphere nothing else could happen. Then there must be a way for life to become more complex. This sequence of events goes on and on. Each event is individual and each event is independent of all of the other events. If any event does not happen, then you can never get to the life we now have. It’s just plain logic.

Evolution is often reduced to biology. How wrong! The events that have to happen come from every field of science. This book presents only 50 of them, but could never discuss all of them. There are actually so many of these individual and independent events that they cannot be counted. This is more than the usual biology, chemistry and physics. There is also geology, oceanography, astrophysics, cell biology, genetics, paleontology, planetary science, physiology, paleontology, microbiology, archeology, atmospheric physics, molecular biology, and on and on.

Creationists only need to be correct on one, any one of these multiple areas of disagreement for evolution to be impossible. Take a minute and think about this before you begin to think about each area. This is a new and incredible statement. It is a powerful truth. You are about to consider 50 controversies in science. Each of these is controversial. Is it conceivable that creationists are wrong on every one of them? Remember creationists are just people who believe in creation. They include the smartest of our scientists. They work at our greatest institutions. They have the highest level of education. They have the highest level of training. They have patents and publications and Nobel Prize awards. They include the best of the brightest of human minds. It is not that creationists are smarter than evolutionists or that evolutionists are smarter than creationists. We are all smart. We are all educated. We are all trained. We are all (created) equal. We are different only in whether we believe in evolution.

IT ONLY TAKES ONE

For evolution to be even possible, much less that it actually happened, each and every one of these 50 if/then statements must be false. All of these great and highly honored scientists would have to be wrong on every one of these areas of controversy. If you feel that only one, any one of these statements is true, then you must logically conclude that evolution could not possibly have happened.

Of course creationists believe they are certainly correct on the vast majority of these. The few that may be uncertain or are without universal support among all creationists (such as the age of the earth or entropy) would not change the logical structure that being right on only one is sufficient for evolution to not be possible and to logically conclude that creation is true. Each of these if/then statements are carefully worded and intended to be generally accepted as valid. Valid just means that the conclusion is true if the premise is true.

So the conclusion that evolution logically cannot be possible will be presented based on many premises which will cover a vast array of areas of disagreement among creationists and evolutionists. The main debate between creationists and evolutionists has always been whether or not the premises are true. For example, everyone agrees that planets must have formed after the Big Bang for evolution to be true. They just disagree on if planets could have formed after the Big Bang. Similarly, everyone agrees that if life cannot start from nonlife that evolution cannot be true, they just disagree on if life can start from nonlife or not. Another is that everyone agrees that DNA mutations is the method that must make better life forms for evolution to be true, they just disagree on if DNA mutations can make better life forms. Each of these areas of disagreement is presented with an if/then logical statement.

What is presented here that is new to the evolution and creation controversy is this logical framework. Each topic of disagreement can be considered one at a time. People will not get lost in the endless details of scientific facts and interpretations. If any one of these if/then logical statements is considered valid (the conclusion that evolution is false if the premise is true) by any person on any one topic, and they agree the premise is true, then it is logical to conclude that evolution is not possible and not true. It does not matter what people think about any of the other 49 topics, it does not change the logical conclusion that evolution is not true.

Many of these areas are very scientific and no one is going to understand every aspect of every area. If you don’t understand any of these 50 controversies just skip it and move on to the next one. Remember, it only takes understanding one and agreeing that the premise of that one, and only that one is true, to conclude that evolution is not true. Each of these many areas is convincing. However, they must also be considered as a group being aware that evolutionists must be right on every area for evolution to be true, while creationists only need to be right on one area for creation to be true. This is an incredible truth which will be explained next with probability.

Consider the following topics one at a time. Evaluate each of the following if/then logical statements and first decide if you agree that it is a valid statement. Then review the material in each section to see if you agree that the premise is true or not. If you agree that the if/then logical statement is valid, and you agree that the premise is true, then you must logically conclude that evolution is not possible. Do this for each section, one at a time. I believe you will agree with many of the premises, but it only takes one to be certain that evolution is false and creation is true. Let’s see why this is true.

PROBABILITY

There is a mathematical reason that evolutionists must be right on every area for evolution to be true, while creationists only need to be right on one area for creation to be true. This is all based on probability. The logical framework provides the method to evaluate all the scientific evidence, while probability allows us to make an informed decision of what we believe.

Since evolution is the result of random chance mistakes we need to understand chance to see if evolution could be true. The chance that something could happen randomly is calculated by probabilities. This is not controversial, just cold hard math. Here’s how it works. For any calculation you use the number of events and the number of possible outcomes of an event. For example, a coin has two sides so there are two possible outcomes, heads and tails. The probability of getting heads for each event or try is ½. If you flip twice, there are two events and you multiply (1/2)(1/2)= ¼. So, there is a one in four chance of getting heads both times. If there are three events you multiply again. The probability of getting heads three times is (1/2)(1/2)(1/2)=1/8. There is a one in 8 chance of getting heads all three times.

This book is discussing a selected 50 topics that all must be true for evolution to be true. So the probability that evolution is true is calculated by multiplying the probability of each of the 50 events together. For example, if you think there is a 50% chance of each of the 50 being right, this is calculated as:

(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50)(.50) = 8.9 x 10-14 %,

this is essentially zero:

0.000000000000089%

Here is the astounding truth. If any of the 50 topics is not true, then this is a 0% chance just for that one topic. Zero times anything is Zero! If you are 100% certain that the evolutionists are right on 49 of the topics, but there is one, only one that you think they are wrong, then this is calculated as:

(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(0.0) = 0 %

This mathematical calculation is true and accurate because each of the 50 topics is an INDEPENDENT EVENT. As independent events, each can be considered individually. As independent events, the probability of each controversial topic of evolution is multiplied together to come up with the probability that the whole process of evolution is true. This is the reason that creationists only need to be correct on one of them.

Since evolution is the result of random chance mistakes, the chance that evolution could be true is calculated with probabilities. This book presents just 50 of the controversial topics concerning evolution. There are actually innumerable random chance events for all of evolution to have occurred to change molecules into life and this life into man.

There are innumerable species on earth. Each of these must be the result of innumerable mutations of DNA, and this is only after there is life. The number of events we are talking about is so ridiculously large it cannot be conceived. The probability of any one of these innumerable events is vanishingly remote and this must be combined with this unknown number of events for evolution to be true. It is simply not logical to believe in evolution based on probability alone. Since evolution is the result of random chance events and random events are probabilities, the chance that evolution is true is essentially zero.

If any one of these topics is not true, then evolution is not true. This is because zero times anything is zero! This is the result of the logical framework which provides the method to evaluate all the scientific evidence, combined with mathematical probability that allows us to make an informed decision of what we believe.

SEQUENCES - THE DOMINO EFFECT

Here is another more visual way to show that creationists only have to be correct on any one of these topics versus evolutionists must be correct on every one.

Dominos is a game which began in China in the 1200’s. There are a variety of types of games that can be played with the domino pieces including a blocking game, scoring game, drawing game, line of play game, and (fittingly) a domino logic game. There are rules and scoring and even a professional level of competition.

However we all know dominos for the domino effect. People line them up in complex intricate and branching patterns. Then they knock them down by toppling over the first one in the line where each one then hits another to continue the sequence. These can be quite entertaining and have led to domino shows to display complex patterns and designs. There is even a Domino Day to compete for the world record which was set in 2009 at 4,491,863 dominoes.

Now let’s consider the 50 controversies of evolution using the domino effect. Evolution is a sequence of events which begins with the Big Bang and culminates with the human brain. Every step of evolution must happen to end up with the human brain. Each domino represents one step of the sequence of events which are all necessary for evolution to be true. They are all necessary conditions because each domino must fall and cause the next one to fall to complete the sequence of the domino effect. Likewise each step in evolution is necessary and must lead to the next step for evolution to be complete to evolve to the human brain.

This illustrates the concept of a sequence. If one doesn’t happen, then you don’t get to the end. Evolution is a sequence. The first event (or domino) is the Big Bang, and the last event (or domino) is the human brain. Each of the dominos in this line is a necessary condition for evolution to be true. It is necessary for that domino to fall and hit the next one for the chain to continue. Even if only one of these does not fall, then the whole domino effect fails. It’s all or none.

In the same way, in evolution it is necessary for all of these 50 controversies to happen like the