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Case Study 3 Chinas One Child Policy 1 Chinese Demographics 2 Population Planning in China
Chinese Demographics
Demographics...
More people than the combined population of Europe, the Americas and Japan. Any change has global ramifications. The demography of China is a powerful trend (1.29 billion).
About 14-17 million people are added each year in 1980s. Average of 13 million people per year in the 1990s. 10 million people per year in the 2000s.
400 million Chinese live in towns and cities (30-35%). 64% of the population lives in rural areas (950 millions). 343 million females are in their reproductive age.
1600
2050
1210
1381
1562 1650
1753
500
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1100 900
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500 1945
1955
1965
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1985
1995
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2015
2025
2035
2045
.
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Chinese Demographics
The problems of controlling it...
The population exploded after 1949. Population control was secondary. Mao Zedong saw numbers as a workforce and a way to fight the Soviet Union and the United States. Calls for women to breed for the motherland.
Population distribution
Excessive concentration.
50% of the population lives on 8.2% of the land.
Bulk of the population along the coast. East China accounts for 90% of the population. 56%, about 728 million, are living in mountainous areas. High density rural areas.
Chinese Demographics
The 1990 Census
Counted 1.134 billion Chinese in the PRC. Believed to be the most accurate ever taken in China. A greater than anticipated increase in population due in large part to the undercounts of earlier censuses. Population was urbanizing.
The percentage of urban population had increased from 20.6% in 1982 to 26.2% by 1990. An increase of 5.6% in just eight years. Reflected job growth in the cities Development of the private sector. Governments departure from socialist methods of production in the secondary sector.
Chinese Demographics
Increasing ethnic diversity.
The government had not enforced the One Child Policy among the countrys 55 recognized minority groups. They had increased their share of still predominantly Han population to 8% from 6.7% in 1982.
Current issues
Population growth undermines Chinese development (education, health, transportation). Acceleration of urbanization at the expense of arable land (loss of 10% since 1978). About 10 million persons reach the employment market each year.
Chinese Demographics
Urbanization concern
Occurred at the expense of highly productive agricultural areas. During the 1990s, China lost 1% of its farm land due to urbanization and industrial development. Only about 10% of the Chinese territory can be used for agricultural purposes. The area used for grain production has declined from 120 million hectares in 1978 to 110 million hectares in 1995.
2.05
0.5
Chinese Demographics
Agricultural problems
Traditional land structures have reach optimal capacity. Output cannot be increased without the usage of modern techniques such as machinery and fertilizers. The size of exploitations is too small:
Modern techniques are not available. Less than 1 hectare per household in coastal areas.
Urbanization, industrialization and transport have decreased agricultural land in the most productive areas. Speculation around cities towards golf courses and leisure centers at the expanse of agriculture. About 13-15 million new mouths to feed each year with declining agricultural surfaces. Production of grain is diverted to livestock (meat) and other production (e.g. beer). Limited investments in agriculture by the peasant.
Chinese Demographics
Improving Chinese agriculture
Considerable room for improvement for the Chinese agricultural productivity. China has not much applied techniques learned during the green revolution. Consolidation of agricultural plots could increase economies of scale. Irrigation:
65% of all the water used for irrigation is lost. Putting this ratio only to 50% could increase water resources by 40% without taping on new sources.
Approximately 25% of the grain is lost due to improper warehousing and transport infrastructure.
Chinese Demographics
Increased agricultural output
Regrouping small exploitations to reach economies of scale. Investments in irrigation. Reduction of agricultural labor between 100 to 120 millions. Rural enterprises to absorb in situ the excess labor. Moving from a labor to a capital intensive agriculture.
Family Planning
Early 1970s
Known as the later-longer-fewer program. Authorized age of marriage 25 for men and 23 for women. Wait later to begin their families, allow for longer spacing in between children, and have fewer children overall. Began to reduce fertility levels. Not fast enough to really slow down population growth due to the demographic momentum that had already developed.
End of 1970s
Government began to promote the two-child family throughout the country. Slogan One is best, at most two, never a third. Contributed to fertility decline but, again, not rapidly enough.
Family Planning
One Child Policy
Launched in 1981 when the population reached 1 billion.
Initial goal: Stabilize Chinas population at 1.2 billion. Revised goal: Keep Chinas population under 1.4 billion until 2010. Population expected to stabilize around 1.6 billion by 2050.
Under the responsibility of the State Family Planning Commission (SFPC). Population control perceived from a strategic point of view. Great variations in performance between the countrys urban and rural areas. Possible to enforce in China (totalitarian). Would have been impossible in most other places.
Family Planning
Regulations of the policy
Employers and neighborhood committees had to enforce guidelines. 1) Authorization for marriage:
25 years for male and 23 years for female. Students and apprentices not allowed to marry.
Family Planning
Incentives offered to couples with only one child:
Monthly allowances paid to couples with only one child. Child entitled to free educational and medical services.
Family Planning
Urban areas
Small sized apartments. Improving ones status and level of consumption. Easier control from the government.
Rural areas
Families want more children to work the family plots and sustain parents when they get old. Want sons who will continue the family line and provide ritual sacrifices to their ancestors after they die. Daughters are leaving their family once they marry. Girls are accounting for only 20 to 30% of a new demographic class in some areas.
Fertility reduction
Prevented about 300 million births since 1980. When the program began (1970), Crude Birth Rate was 34 and TFR was around 6. Been brought down to 10 (CBR) and 1.7 (TFR). About 40% of Chinese women have been sterilized. About 5% of women have more than one child.
Family Planning
Fluctuations of fertility
Fertility has declined substantially before the OCP. Reached a low in 1984. Increased from the mid 1980s to the early 1990s. Relaxation in enforcement in rural areas.
In 1986, 2 children per couple were allowed in rural areas. In 1995, the restriction was lifted for urban areas.
Reductions in the authority of local officials responsible for implementing the program. Sizeable age cohort entering their reproductive years.
Baby boom of the early 1960s (about 40% of the increase was due to this). A decline in the age of marriage explained the other 60%. Nearly 75% of this increase was offset by declines in the age-specific fertility rates.
TFR
0 TFR Natural Increase 0 5 -5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 -10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
19 49 19 52 19 55 19 58 19 61 19 64 19 67 19 70 19 73 19 76 19 79 19 82 19 85 19 88 19 91 19 94 19 97
Natural Increase
Family Planning
Imbalanced sex ratio
Male children are more valued. 120 boys for 100 girls (national average). Abandon or abortion of females. Missing female population as girls are not declared. 2000: About 900,000 girls were missing (0 to 4 years group). Only 1% of females are unmarried by the age of 30.
Psychological consequences:
Currently around 70 million single child. 4-2-1 syndrome (4 grand parents 2 parents 1 child):
Little emperors or little empresses. Self-centrism. Pressure to succeed.
Family Planning
The Population and Family Planning Law
One-child policy was a policy for one generation. Relaxed in the mid 1980s:
2 children permitted in rural areas.
A new family planning law started in 2002. Same goal than the One-child policy, but offer more flexibility:
One child, but permission may be granted for a second under specific circumstances. Late marriage and childbearing. More flexibility for provinces, autonomous regions and minorities. People in reproductive age have to use contraception. Provisions for sex-determination and sex-specific abortions.
Female Male 18 21 24
13
64
52 60 48 51 55 51 -50
42 42
31
18 20 22
29
41 40
50
61 58 58
63
-70
70
30 32
40 38 42
41 42 44 40
44 41 38 39 42 39 35 33 34 34 32 29
52
-70
-50
-30
-10
Millions
10
30
50
70