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AIA FINANCIAL
AIA.COM
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Exports to EU only 2.4% to GDP with very little Bank exposure, relatively insensitive to EU crisis.
Debt to GDP at 26%, Fiscal Deficit of 2% (estimate), GDP consistently growing over 6%. Better than Asean peers.
Demography Bonus of Young and Growing Middle Income. Backbone to domestic economy engine.
FDI is catching up and multinational companies are keen to penetrate more in Indonesia.
Higher and more stable ROI with declining Cost of Capital. Business poised to expand
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Consistent GDP Growth of over 6 % Structural lower Inflation Historical Low BI Rate level Room for Fiscal and Monetary Stimulus on the event of Global Economy Slowdown
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Tactical Asset Allocation , Favoring Equity when Economic growth is strong , Favoring Treasuries when Economic Growth Weakened and Inflation in Check, currently Equity earning yield gap to treasuries suggest undervalued level
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OvershadoWED by eudebt concern, JCI plunged by 8.3% in May 2012 trimmed the early performance and left the YTD performance only at 0.3% OR the worst performance in the Asia region. Providing excellent entry opportunities for Long-Term Believer.
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Comparing the Price Earning Ratio & Return On Equity Metrix, currently JCI is trading in the middle range with PE ratio around 13x or at par with the China market. In Term of Return On Equity, China market was able to give higher ROE at around 54% while Indonesia only give around 30% ROE. However, looking at the Debt to Equity Size (indicated by the large of the bubble), China market was more riskier than Indonesia with the Debt to Equity ratio around 160% vs Indonesia at 60%.
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Looking at the Equity Market Cap vs GDP, currently Indonesia is still very low in term with 50.5% vs Other Emerging Market Countries like Malaysia, Singapore, China, providing opportunities for a re-rating.
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Consistently growing Demographic Indonesia Equities is a prospective Investment Destination GDP, Structurally lower CPI, Defensive Attributes from healthy Government Fiscal and Monetary Figure. Bonus of Young and Productive Population, with increasing Income will support LongTerm Domestic Growth Story.
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Smaller companies, positioned at early stage of its business cycle, offer bigger growth prospect that would translate to higher EPS and Asset growth. Historical data shows smaller companies shares price outperform larger companies. Diversification over large names can reduce risk and volatility. Less efficient and mispriced because it is un-covered by analyst and market, Re-rating potential is a bonus when they got covered. Appreciation would come from both company internal growth and expansion on stocks multiple based on market perception. Chances to take advantages of increasing Merger and Acquisitions activity.
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Investment Roadmap
Roadmap to Optimal Return
Invest with Beneficial Tailwind of Macro Economy. (Indonesia) Capture the Excess Return By BottomUp Stock Selection
Top Down
Small-Mid Cap
Bottom-Up Selection
Diversification
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For internal use only and may not be copied, reproduced or transmitted without written permission from AIA Financial
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For internal use only and may not be copied, reproduced or transmitted without written permission from AIA Financial
For internal use only and may not be copied, reproduced or transmitted without written permission from AIA Financial
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Our philosophy
We believe that bottom-up research and strategic allocation across the Value and Growth investing principle can lead to attractive risk-adjusted returns.
Our approach
Enhance alpha potential while managing risk: We strategically allocate the portfolios assets across building blocks of Investment: stable or explosive growth Stocks, Value and Distress Stocks, growth at value prices. We identify undervalued, Under-Followed companies with an unrecognized positive dynamic for change. Expand our investment universe: With the flexibility to invest in a wide range of companies, small and mid caps, we have a larger universe of alpha-generating opportunities. Participate in the long-term success of our holdings: Our long-term investment horizon permits us to participate in the success of quality growth stocks as they move from the small-to mid-to large-cap categories.
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Stock Selection on Undervalued Companies with Significant MOS offering. Focus on Balance Sheet
Growth Investing
Stock Selection o nRapidly Growing and Positive Momentum Companies Focus on Operating Profit Growth
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Fundamental Analysis
Portfolio Construction
This is ofplaceholder text. Ideas Team a Actively Seeking This text can be replacedManagers Analysts and Portfolio with your own text. Qualitative Screens how your own The text demonstrates text will look when you replace the Meeting With Companies placeholder text. Management and Sell Side The text that you insert will retain the same style and format as the Analysts. placeholder text.
Diversify Strategically according to conviction levels and risk assesments Maintain a balance and diversify within value and growth attributes. Manage for Long-Term Return
Develop Investment Thesis Determine Upside/Downside Potential Classify Company By Idea and Theme
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Worst
Best
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Principal Risks
Fees, Charges & Expenses Currency Initial Net Asset Value (NAV) per unit NAV Publication Subscription / Redemption Custodian
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Thank You
AIA-Financial Investment Team
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