BUSINESS FORECASTING MORPHOLOGICAL

PRESENTED BY KUMAR NILESH AVANISH TIWARI VIVEK YADAV POOJA SENGAR MOHITASH C NANGOTRA

Morphological Analysis works through very simple processes, using two common principles of creativity: decomposition and forced association The problem is broken down into component variables and possible values identified for each. The association principle is then brought into play by banging together multiple combinations of these values.

Morphological analysis is a method for identifying and investigating the total set of possible relationships contained in any given, multi-dimensional problem complex that can be parameterized. Morphological analysis is a proven ideation method that leads to "organized invention." The technique allows for two key elements:

 a systematic analysis of the current and future structure of an industry area (or domain) as well as key gaps in that structure. a strong stimulus for the invention of new alternatives that fill these gaps and meet any imposed requirements.

Assumption
The morphological analysis is actually a group of methods that share the same structure. This method breaks down a system, product or process into its essential sub-concepts, each concept representing a dimension in a multi-dimensional matrix. Thus, every product is considered as a bundle of attributes. New ideas are found by searching the matrix for new combination of attributes that do not yet exist. It doesnt provide any specific guidelines for combining the parameters. It tends to provide a large number of ideas.

Advantages
"It may help us to discover new relationships or configurations, which may not be so evident, or which we might have overlooked by other less structured methods. It encourages the identification and investigation of boundary conditions, i.e. the limits and extremes of different contexts and factors. It also has definite advantages for scientific communication and notably for group work.

 It allows us to find possible solutions to complex problems characterized by several parameters. Richness of data it can provide a multitude of combinations permutations not yet explored. Systematic analysis this technique allows for a systematic analysis of future structure of an industry and identification of key gaps.

Drawback
"One apprehension that has been voiced against morphological analysis is that it is too structured and that this could inhibit free, creative thinking. Morphological analysis may yield too many possibilities. Human judgments are still needed to direct the outcome. There are no guidelines for making combinations. Human error the development of morphological boxes requires critical judgments. If the underlying thought processes are not insightful, the outcomes of this method will be weak.

WHAT ARE QUALITATIVE METHODS

These are methods which rely on experts who try to quantify the level of demand from the available qualitative data.

DIFFERENT QUALITATIVE METHODS

DELPHI METHOD MORPHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS SCENARIO METHODS SALES FORCE COMPOSITE METHOD etc.

Characteristics of these methods

It is used when little or no quantitative information is available but sufficient qualitative knowledge exists. Subjective based on intuition. Assumes that somebody knows the answers and ask them. Experience based. Subjective : might result is bias.

USEFUL FOR
Long range forecasting e.g. where technological, political etc play a significant role. When data is limited or non existence e.g. new product launch

MORPOLOGICAL ANALYSIS

MEANING OF THE TERM

The term morphology comes from classical Greek (morph) and means the study of shape or form.

WHAT IS IT IN SIMPLE TERMS IT IS A TOOL WHICH CAN HELP CAN HELP GENERATE A VAST NUMBER OF IDEAS

FORMALY WE CAN SAY THAT

Morphological analysis is a non-quantified modelling method for structuring and analysing technological, organisational and social problem complexes. It relies on the representation of a problem using a number of parameters (or variables), which are allowed to assume a number of conditions (or states).

FIELDS OF APPLICATION
The PROBLEM" in question can be physical (e.g. an organism, an anatomy or an ecology) social (an organization or institution) or mental (e.g. linguistic forms, concepts or systems of ideas)

BEST THING ABOUT IT IT CAN BE USED IN LITERALY EVERY PROBLEM WE FACE AND FIND IT DIFFICULT TO GET AN OPTIMAL SOLUTION

WHERE IT CAME FROM

The first to use it was J.W. von Goethe(1749-1832), It was introduced to denote the principle of formation and transformation of organic bodies Swiss astronomer ERITZ ZWICKY in 1948 used it in a more generalised form. He used it in the field of ASTROPHYSICS and ROCKET RESEARCH From the late 1960s to the early 1990s, a limited form of MA was employed by a number of engineers, operational researchers and policy analysts.

CONTEMPORARY USE
SWEDISH DEFENCE RESEARCH AGENCY IN 1995 USED IT FOR Force Requirement ALONG WITH ADVANCED COMPUTER SUPPORT ( CASPER - A SOFTWARE ) THIS STUDY EXTENTED THE USE OF THIS METHODS FUNCTIONALITY AND AREAS OF APPLICATON

SINCE THEN
MORE THAN 100 PROJECTS HAVE BEEN CARIED OUT USING COMPUTER AIDED MORPHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS IT HAS BEEN USED IN STRUCTURING: COMPLEX POLICY PLANNING POLICY SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT ANALYSING ORGANISATIONAL STRUCTURE etc.

HOW TO USE IT PRACTICALLY

PROBLEMS AT HAND IS STUDIED DIMENSIONS OF THE PROBLEMS ARE LISTED THEN WE GENERATE A LIST OF ATTRIBUTES UNDER EACH DIMENSIONS THEN WE CONSTRUCT A MULTIDIMENSIONAL MATRIX (morphological box) WHOSE COMBINATIONS WILL CONTAIN ALL POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS

 COMBINATIONS OF ALL ATTRIBUTES ACROSS THE DIMENSIONS ARE EXAMINED ( EVEN IF THEY APPEAR UNUSUAL OR IMPRACTICAL) Evaluation of the outcome is done which is based on feasibility and achievement of desired goals Then in-depth analysis of best possibilities considering available resources is done .

MORPHOLOGICAL FIELD

In Morphological Field we put all the conditions and there parameters in box in a organised way

CROSS CONSISTENCY MATRIX

In this we basically check the logical relationship between different parameters

CASE STUDY

DISASTER REDUCTION STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT

IN THIS CASE STUDY WE IDENTIFY AND COMPARE RISK REDUCTION STRATEGY AND PREPAREDNESS FOR DIFFERENT TYPES OF HAZARDS USING MORPHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS

FIRST THING WE DO IS THAT WE IDENTIFY AND DEFINE MOST IMPORTANT PARAMETERS . FOR OUR STUDY WE HAVE IDENTIFIED THE FOLLOWINGS HAZARDS RISK REDUCTION STRATEGY UNSAFE PHYSICAL CONDITIONS ADEQUATE CAUTION MEASURES ADEQUATE PREPAREDNESS MEASURES

 TAKING THESE PARAMETERS INTO CONSIDERATION WE DEFINE VARIOUS CONTIONS UNDER WHICH THESE PARAMETERS CAN EXIST. THESE CONDITIONS CAN BE WILD OR ILLOGICAL . WE SIMPLY TAKE ALL THAT INTO CONSIDERATION FOR THE TIME BEING

HAZARDS

RISK REDUCTION STRATEGY PREVENT HAZARD ITSELF REDUCE SEVERITY OF HAZARD REDUCE PHYSICAL EXPOSURES REDUCE CONSEQUENCES RISK TRANSFER

UNSAFE PHYSICAL CONDITIONS POPULATION DENSITY

ADEQUATE CAUTION MEASURES BUILDING STD. FOR NEW CONRTRUCTION

ADEQUATE PREPAREDNESS MEASURES WARNING SYSTEM

EARTHQUAKE

FLOODS

UNSAFE LOCATION

RELEVENT EDUCATION & TRAINING URBAN RENOVATION

EVACUATION SYSTEM

FIRE

LACK OF DISASTER PLANNING

TROOPS AVAILABILITY

TERRORISM

 Total number of configurations in this are 4*5*3*3*3 = 540 So it means that there are in total 540 possible solutions before the consistency check. NOW OUR NEXT STEP IS CROSSCONSISTENCY MATRIX.

 y = These two conditions can/should coexist. X = These two conditions cannot/should not, co-exist.

EARTHQUAKE MORPHOLOGY
HAZARDS RISK REDUCTION STRATEGY UNSAFE PHYSICAL CONDITIONS ADEQUATE CAUTION MEASURES ADEQUATE PREPAREDNESS MEASURES

EARTHQUAKE

PREVENT HAZARD ITSELF

POPULATION DENSITY

BUILDING STD. FOR NEW CONRTRUCTION

WARNING SYSTEM

FLOODS

REDUCE SEVERITY OF HAZARD

REDUCE PHYSICAL EXPOSURES REDUCE CONSEQUENCES RISK TRANSFER

UNSAFE LOCATION

RELEVANT EDUCATION & TRAINING

URBAN RENOVATION

EVACUATION SYSTEM

FIRE

LACK OF DISASTER PLANNING

TROOPS AVAILABILITY

TERRORISM

POSSIBLE SOLUTION
TOTAL NO. OF CONFIGURATIONS 1*2*3*3*3= 54 Earthquake/reduce consequences/population density/building std. for new construction /evacuation system Earthquake/reduce consequences/population density/building std. for new construction /warning system Earthquake/reduce consequences/population density/building std. for new construction /troops availability Earthquake/reduce consequences/population density/ relevant education and training /troops availability Earthquake/reduce consequences/population density/ relevant education and training /warning system.

FLOOD MORPHOLOGY
HAZARDS EARTHQUAKE RISK REDUCTION STRATEGY PREVENT HAZARD ITSELF REDUCE SEVERITY OF HAZARD REDUCE PHYSICAL EXPOSURES UNSAFE PHYSICAL CONDITIONS POPULATION DENSITY ADEQUATE CAUTION MEASURES BUILDING STD. FOR NEW CONRTRUCTION FLOODS UNSAFE LOCATION LACK OF DISASTER PLANNING RELEVENT EDUCATION & TRAINING URBAN RENOVATION EVACUATION SYSTEM TROOPS AVAILABILITY ADEQUATE PREPAREDNESS MEASURES WARNING SYSTEM

FIRE

TERRORISM

REDUCE CONSEQUENCES
RISK TRANSFER

POSSIBLE SOLUTION
TOTAL NO. OF CONFIGURATIONS 1*2*2*2*3= 24 Floods/reduce consequences/unsafe location/ relevant education and training /warning system. Floods/reduce consequences/unsafe location/ relevant education and training /evacuation system. Floods/reduce consequences/unsafe location/ relevant education and training /troops availability. Floods/risk transfer/unsafe location/ relevant education and training /troops availability. Floods/risk transfer/unsafe location/ relevant education and training /troops warning system.

FIRE MORPHOLOGY RISK UNSAFE ADEQUATE

HAZARDS EARTHQUAKE REDUCTION STRATEGY PREVENT HAZARD ITSELF REDUCE SEVERITY OF HAZARD REDUCE PHYSICAL EXPOSURES PHYSICAL CONDITIONS POPULATION DENSITY CAUTION MEASURES BUILDING STD. FOR NEW CONRTRUCTION FLOODS UNSAFE LOCATION RELEVENT EDUCATION & TRAINING URBAN RENOVATION

ADEQUATE PREPAREDNESS MEASURES WARNING SYSTEM

EVACUATION SYSTEM

FIRE

LACK OF DISASTER PLANNING

TROOPS AVAILABILITY

TERRORISM

REDUCE CONSEQUENCES
RISK TRANSFER

POSSIBLE SOLUTION
NO. OF CONFIGURATION POSSIBLE = 1*3*2*2*1= 12

FIRE/PREVENT HAZARD ITSELF/UNSAFE LOCATION/ RELEVENT

EDUCATION AND TRAINING/EVACUATION SYSTEM FIRE/PREVENT HAZARD ITSELF/UNSAFE LOCATION/ BUILDING STD. FOR NEW CONTRUCTION/EVACUATION SYSTEM FIRE/PREVENT HAZARD ITSELF/LACK OF DISASTER PLANNING/ BUILDING STD. FOR NEW CONTRUCTION/EVACUATION SYSTEM FIRE/PREVENT HAZARD ITSELF/LACK OF DISASTER PLANNING/RELEVENT EDUCATION AND TRAINING/EVACUATION SYSTEM

TERRORISM MORPHOLOGY
HAZARDS RISK REDUCTION STRATEGY UNSAFE PHYSICAL CONDITIONS ADEQUATE CAUTION MEASURES ADEQUATE PREPAREDNESS MEASURES

EARTHQUAKE

PREVENT HAZARD ITSELF REDUCE SEVERITY OF HAZARD

REDUCE PHYSICAL EXPOSURES REDUCE CONSEQUENCES RISK

POPULATION DENSITY

BUILDING STD. FOR NEW

CONRTRUCTION

WARNING SYSTEM

FLOODS

UNSAFE LOCATION

RELEVENT EDUCATION & TRAINING

URBAN RENOVATION

EVACUATION SYSTEM

FIRE

LACK OF DISASTER PLANNING

TROOPS AVAILABILITY

TERRORISM

POSSIBLE CONFIGURATION
1*1*1*1*1 = 1 TERRORISM/PREVENT HAZARD ITSELF/UNSAFE LOCATION/ RELEVENT EDUCATION AND TRAINING/TROOPS AVAILABILITY

FINAL RESULT
TOTAL NO. OF CONFIGURATIONS = 540 TOTAL No. OF RELEVENT CONFIGURATIONS =54 + 24 + 12 + 1 = 91 TOTAL No. OF IRRELEVENT CONFIGURATIONS = 540 - 91 = 449

POSSIBLE USE OF THIS STUDY

DEVELOPMENT OF NEW RESIDENCIAL AREAS DEVELOPMENT OF NEW INDUSTRIAL AREAS IMPLEMENTATION OF GOVT. POLICIES IN A PARTICULAR GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS ETC.

CASE STUDY
1. Objective:- Improving existing models of the car. 2. Analyze cars and list some of their parameters. Improving elements Optional equipments Internal processes Temporary properties

CONTD
3. Generate the variations for each parameter. Which Improving elements can be found? Which optional equipment can be offered to customers? Which are the different kinds of internal processes in a car? Which temporary properties can make a car special in its early phases of life?

4. Research all the possible solutions to the problem.

5. Try different combinations (randomly):

Morphological Analysis
Random Combination: odour, airconditioning, operator controlled ,new car smell Result: Fragrance Control System for cars Advantages: With a touch of button, drivers can choose jasmine ,mint or perfume scents all blowing through air-conditioning system.

Strengths & Weaknesses

Strengths Richness of data Systematic Analysis Weaknesses An overabundance of possibilities Human error

Methodological Approach(to combat overabundance of possibilities)

Identification of economic, technical, and strategic criteria to assess and select the best solutions. Identification of crucial components and their classification by criteria of weighted differences; and Introduction of constraints of exclusion or preference. This approach has been integrated into a microsoftware package (MOPPHOL).

The Future Group

The Futures Group (TFG) has developed a computer analysis program that facilitates the process and organizes the output in priority. TFG used a general permutation program, customized for food care, to analyze food storage and food preparation technologies in priority. Two permutation programs were run: a food storage program,and a food preparation program.

Contd..
These programs permuted all possible combinations of elements from the three subsystems to form a large set of potential products. For each subsystem element, two numbers were entered to describe how well each element met the two criteria: 1. Breakthrough potential; and 2. Relationship to client company.