Urban Transition in Bangladesh Issues and Challenges

Country Presentation : Urban Knowledge Platform

Colombo, March 20, 2012 Country Team

Hossain Zillur Rahman, Professor Nazrul Islam, K.M. Nurul Huda, Iftekhar Ahmed, Zahed H. Khan

Why is Urbanization a Priority Concern?

An economic urgency
Key growth driver: Urban share of GDP 60% Middle Income achievement unlikely without growth contribution of urbanization Nearing tipping point when costs may outweigh benefits

A demographic urgency
Likely urban population by 2030: 90 million

An environmental urgency
Unplanned urbanization as big an environmental threat as climate change

A social urgency
-

Social indicators worse than economic indicators: water, housing, sanitation, literacy. Only 2% increase in literacy rate between 2005 and 2010 compared to drop in extreme poverty from 14% to 7%

Extremely poor liveability: Dhaka near bottom on global ranking

Urban Transition: An Overview

Sources: Population Census-2001, National Series, Volume-3, Urban Area Report (BBS, 2008) & Statistical Pocket Book of Bangladesh 2009 (BBS, 2010)

Projected urbanization level in 2030

39.3%

From rural-urban divide to rural-urban continuum

Uneven Urban Concentration

Dhaka 3 Metropolitan cities

37 % 19 % 56 % 31 % 13 % 100 %

Municipalities Other urban centers

Urban Bangladesh: A Connected Reality

Daily bus destinations from Dhaka
Source: PPRC, 2012, Urban Bangladesh: Challenges Of Transition

Cities of Migrants
Location
% of HH urban residents by birth

Metropolitan
Dhaka Chittagong

21.6
16.4 32.0

Larger Towns Smaller Towns

43.4 50.3

Source: PPRC Urban Household Survey, 2010

Why the Urban Attraction?

Economic reasons
Employment Business 71% 21%

Educational opportunity City life Distress factors

23% 22% 11%

Source: PPRC Urban Residents Survey, 2010 (Multiple answers: percentages do not add up to 100)

Urbanization and Growth: 3 Stories in 1

Manufacturing driven metropolitan growth poles in Dhaka and Chittagong Service sector driven secondary city growth Remittance and urban consumption driven rural non-farm growth

Multiple Patterns of Urban Growth

Primate city: Dhaka Incipient metropolitan: Chittagong Metro satellite/traditional trading hub: Narayanganj, Gazipur Regional growth centre: Bogra, Rangpur, Jessore Labour market linkages: Sylhet, Kurigram Localized economies: Borguna, Munshiganj, Kishoreganj

Urbanization Aspects of the Economic Story

Economic specialization in Dhaka and Chittagong; diversified economic base of secondary towns 2001-2006: manufacturing migrating out of Dhaka to adjoining rural metro (10% to 14%) and rural non-metro (28% to 34%) Garment mainly urban-based; textiles, agro-processing, other manufacturing mainly rural-based Significant differences in competitiveness: Dhaka near international standards Education profile of urban youth employment: 28.9% illiterate, 29.9% primary schooling, 17.5% grade 8, 10% grade 9, 7.6% SSC Measuring urban poverty sensitive to instrument: by Cost of basic needs 36.6% in 2000, by direct calorie intake 53%

Urban Poverty

Slum population: 12.8% of total urban (2007) Urban poverty challenges different from rural poverty challenges No typical slums Dhaka slums changed from public to private land

Urban Chaos

Governance deficit Capacity deficit Environmental sustainability Weak civic culture

Six Strategic Challenges

Building a sustained policy engagement A 3-component holistic urban renewal agenda: Big Cities, Secondary Towns, Growth Centres

Urban land-use
Catalyzing investment in the urban sector

Address urban management capacity deficits

Sustainable strategy to address urban poverty

Sectoral and Governance Priorities

Sectoral
Water Sewage Mass transit Waste management Affordable housing Energy

Governance
Decentralization Capacity-building Civic culture

Current Initiatives

2nd generation municipal funding Economic zones Emphasis on solar energy Urban forum

Priorities for Future

Capacity creation on urban management in government and non-government spheres Campaign on civic culture Exploring regional development approaches Harnessing technology for shaping better urban outcomes Innovations in urban finance