ECO200-Introduction to Development Economics

Dr. Seeme Mallick Faculty of Business Administration Department of Management Sciences

1

786-Lecture-11
Module 3. Poverty, Income Distribution and Population Transition Todaro chapters: 6-Population Growth and Economic Development: Causes, Consequences, and Controversies Perkins chapters: 7-Population

6-Population Growth and Economic Development: Causes, Consequences, and Controversies

A. B. The Basic Issue: Population Growth and the Quality of Life A Review of Numbers: Population Growth Past, Present and Future World Population Growth through History Structure of the Worlds Population The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth A. The Demographic Transition D. The Causes of High Fertility in Developing Countries: The Malthusian and Household Models The Malthusian Population Trap Criticisms of the Malthusian Model The Microeconomic Household Theory of Fertility The Demand for Children in Developing Countries Some Empirical Evidence 3

6-Population Growth and Economic Development: Causes, Consequences, and Controversies

E. The Consequences of High Fertility: Some Conflicting opinions Population Growth Is Not a Real Problem A Deliberately Contrived False Issue A Desirable phenomenon Population Growth Is a Real Problem The Empirical Argument: Seven Negative Consequences of Population Growth F. Goals and Objectives: Toward a Consensus G. Some Policy Approaches What Developing Countries Can Do What the Developed Countries Can Do: Resources, Population and the Global Environment How Developed Countries Can Assist Developing 4 Countries with Their Population Programs

6-Population Growth and Economic Development: Causes, Consequences, and Controversies

Questions for Discussion

 Q1. Explain the notion of the hidden momentum of Population Growth. Why is this an important concept projecting future population trends in different developing nation?

B. A Review of Numbers: Population Growth Past, Present and Future

C. The Demographic Transition

Q2. Describe briefly the theory of the demographic transition. At what stage in this transition do most developing countries seem to be? Explain your answer.

D. The Causes of High Fertility in Developing Countries: The Malthusian and Household Models

Q3a. Explain what is The Malthusian Population Trap?

D. The Causes of High Fertility in Developing Countries: The Malthusian and Household Models Explaining the Malthusian Trap: The Malthusian Trap is the theory that, as population growth is ahead of agricultural growth, there must be a stage at which the food supply is inadequate for feeding the population. This was originally devised by Robert Malthus in An Essay on the Principle of Population in 1798, arguing that food supply expansion is linear whereas human growth is exponential.

D. The Causes of High Fertility in Developing Countries: The Malthusian and Household Models

However, the Green Revolution in 1945 is an example of how mankind can adapt to make food production more efficient. Nevertheless there must be a point at which it cannot become any more efficient and cause some degree of famine, not to mention the deforestation, soil erosion and pollution.

D. The Causes of High Fertility in Developing Countries: The Malthusian and Household Models
The idea of Malthusian Catastrophe has also been extended to energy: since energy consumption is increasing at a faster rate than population and the majority energy comes from non-renewable sources, it would appear to be falling into a Malthusian Trap sooner than food production. However, there are clear alternatives in that case such as nuclear energy whereas in food there are almost certainly none. Malthus theory has its critics such as Julian Simon, whose counterarguments include the progress of thought and study in the field and the economys ability to the increase production when there is a financial incentive.

D. The Causes of High Fertility in Developing Countries: The Malthusian and Household Models

Q3b. What are the bases for the Criticism of Malthusian Trap?

Criticism of Malthusian Trap

In the first place, it is pointed out that Malthus's pessimistic conclusions have not been borne out by the history of Western European countries. The gloomy forecast made by Malthus about the economic conditions of future generations of mankind has not been realized in the Western world. Population has failed to grow as rapidly as predicted by Malthus and production has increased tremendously because of the rapid advances in technology. As a result, living standards of the people have risen instead of falling as was predicted by

Criticism of Malthusian Trap

Secondly, Malthusian theory of population is based upon the law of diminishing returns as applied to agriculture. On the basis of this law Malthus asserted that food production could not keep pace with population growth. By making rapid advances in technology and accumulating capital in larger quantity, advanced countries have been able to postpone the stage of diminishing returns. By using fertilizers, better seeds and other agricultural machinery ,they have increased production greatly.

Criticism of Malthusian Trap

In fact, in most of the advanced countries the rate of increase of food production has been much greater than the rate of population growth. Thus, inventions and improvements in the methods of production have belied the gloomy forecast of Malthus by holding the law of diminishing returns in check almost indefinitely. The remarkable progress of the recent green revolution in many under-developed

Criticism of Malthusian Trap

Malthusian theory of population compared the population growth with the increase in food production alone. Malthus held that because land was available, in fixed quantity, food production could not rise faster than population. But he should have considered all types of production and he should have compared the growth of population not merely with the increase in food supply but with the increase in the total wealth of a country. England did feel the shortage of land and food.

Criticism of Malthusian Trap

If England had been forced to support her population entirely from her own soil, there can be little doubt that England would have experienced a series of famines by which her growth of population would have been checked.

Criticism of Malthusian Trap

Some critics of Malthus, like Karl Marx, argued that Malthus failed to recognize the potential of human population to increase food supply. Malthus is accused by many to have failed to comprehend man's ability to use science and technology to increase food supply to meet the needs of an increasing population.

This graph shows how the rate of food supply may vary but never reaches its carrying capacity because every time it is getting near, there is an invention or development that causes the food supply to increase.