Chapter 10 Estimating With Confidence

Ms. Plata AP Statistics

Section 10.1 Confidence Intervals: The Basics

Statistical Inference

The goal of statistical inference is to infer from the sample data some conclusion about the population. We cant be certain that our conclusions are correct - a different sample might lead to different conclusions. Statistical inference uses the language of probability to express the strength of our conclusions

Statistical Inference

The two most common types of formal statistical inference:

Confidence Intervals for estimating the value of a population parameter.

Significance Tests assess the evidence for a claim about a population (Chapter 11)

Both types of inference are based on the sampling distribution of statistics

Statistical Inference

Inference is most reliable when the data are produced by a properly randomized design.
When you use statistical inference, you are acting as if the data are a random sample or come from a randomized experiment.

Recall from Chapter 9

The mean of the sampling distribution of x-bar is the same as the unknown mean of the entire population. The standard deviation of x-bar is .

The Central Limit Theorem tells us that the mean x-bar of x > 30 has a distribution that is close to Normal.

Confidence Intervals: The Basics

Read example 10.1 on p. 618 and p. 619 Read example 10.2 on p. 620

A confidence interval is a set (range) of population values for which our found sample value is likely.
Read example 10.3 on p. 621

Confidence Intervals

 The center x-bar of each interval is marked by a dot. The arrows on either side of the dot span the confidence interval. The distance from the dot to the end of an arrow is the margin of error for that interval. 24 of these 25 intervals (96%) cover the true value of . If we took all possible samples, 95% of the resulting confidence intervals would contain .

Assignment #1

10.1 (to be done in class) 10.2 10.5 10.6

Confidence Interval for Population Mean (When is known)

Be sure to check that these conditions for constructing a confidence interval for are satisfied before you perform any calculations

AP Tip

A common error students make on the AP Exam is to fail to identify the conditions by which they are justified in constructing a confidence interval. This is understandable, as many questions have simply directed students to construct a confidence interval and there are no specific directions to first justify it. However, students MUST show that the conditions exist to construct a valid confidence interval in order to get full credit on a question.

Finding Critical Values z*

Read example 10.4 on how to find z*

Critical Values z*
The most common z*:
Confidence Level

Tail Area

z*

90% 95%

0.05 0.025

1.645 1.960

99%

0.005

2.576

Values z* that mark off a specified area under the standard Normal curve are often called critical values of the distribution.

Critical Values

Confidence Interval

Used to estimate the unknown population parameter.

Confidence Interval

Example 10.5

Constructing a confidence interval for

p. 630 This procedure will be used throughout the rest of the class when doing inference. All FOUR steps in the process must be present in an inference problem on the AP exam in order to receive full credit. In Step 4 of the procedure, note that we do NOT make a probability statement about a found confidence interval and that the interpretation must be in the context of the problem.

Inference Toolbox

Step 1: Parameter. Identify the population of interest and the parameter you want to draw conclusions about. Step 2: Conditions. Choose the appropriate inference procedure. Verify conditions for using it. Step 3: Calculations. If the conditions are met, carry out the inference procedure. confidence interval = estimate +- margin of error

Step 4: Interpretation. Interpret your results in the context of the problem. Remember the three Cs: conclusion, connection, and context

Example

A test for the level of potassium in the blood is not perfectly precise. Suppose that repeated measurements for the same person on different days vary Normally with = 0.2. A sample of three have a mean of 3.2. What is a 90% confidence interval for the mean potassium level?

Example Continued

95% confidence interval?

99% confidence interval?

What happens to the interval as the confidence level increases? The interval gets wider as the confidence level increases

Interpretation (Memorize!!!)

We are ________% confident that the true mean context lies within the interval ______ and ______. We are 95% confident that the true mean potassium level in the blood lies within the interval 2.97 and 3.43.

Assignment #2

10.7 10.9 10.11 10.12

Margin of Error Gets Smaller When:

z* gets smaller (smaller confidence level C). gets smaller (less variation in the population). n gets larger (to cut the margin of error in half, n must be 4 times as big). NOTE: The researcher cannot control . She/he can control the confidence level and the sample size.

How Confidence Intervals Behave

We want high confidence and a small margin of error. A small margin of error says that we have pinned down the parameter quite precisely.

The margin of error is (can be used to find sample size):

Only by manipulating n you can control the margin of error. Always round UP to the nearest person!!!

Determining Sample Size

Example

The heights of ASD male students is Normally distributed with = 2.5 inches. How large a sample is necessary to be accurate within + .75 inches with 95% confidence?

Caution!!!!!!

The margin of error only covers random sampling error. It does NOT cover errors due to:

The data not being a SRS from the population.

Data from more complex sampling designs (stratified, etc.)

Bias in data (wording, nonresponse, etc.)

Watch for outliers or strong skewness. Must know p.636 - 637

What Confidence Does NOT Say:

We are 95% confident that the mean SAT Math score for all Texas high school students is between 452 and 470.

DOES NOT SAY the probability is 95% that the true mean falls
between 452 and 470.

DOES SAY the numbers were calculated by a method that gives

correct results in 95% of all possible samples.

We either captured the true mean in our interval, or we didnt. (P=1 or P=0) The probability describes how often the METHOD gives correct answers.

Calculator Tip

To calculate Confidence Intervals in the Calculator, follow the Technology Toolbox on p. 641 - 642

Assignment

10.13 10.15 10.16 10.17 10.18 10.22