S&P 500 ~ A Series of Corrective Moves Higher

One of the bizarre and difficult of aspects to this market ever since the March 2009 lows is the tendency for the market to propel higher in corrective patterns that yield NO meaningful retracements until the wave higher has finished. In other words, the moves higher have not been impulsive in nature and trustworthy. Theyve been powerful corrective waves that offered shorts no way out as each wave failed to even register a small 38% retracement. 54 Trading Days;
Max Retrace = 38%

53 Trading Days; Max Retrace = 38% 71 Trading Days; Max Retrace = 29%

67 Trading Days; Max Retrace = 29%

March 09

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ A Series of Corrective Moves Higher

But wait, theres more of these.
32 Trading Days; Max Retrace = 50% 56 Trading Days; Max Retrace = 24%

49 Trading Days; Max Retrace = 24%

One of these waves was not like the otherand it was an ominous sign for the Market.

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Current Rally

The current corrective move yielding no more than a 25% correction has lasted 41 trading days. It this is going to look like all the other such patterns, then it should have a several days longer to run.
41 Trading Days; Max Retrace = 25%

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ 120 min. with Weekly Support

Im not going to even try a shorter term count because this has become a ridiculously confusing pattern. The market is into key resistance right now as it approaches the double top zone from last year (1347-1371). I would be surprised if the S&P 500 takes out that zone prior to a good retracement of some kind. The trend channel up is extremely well defined with plenty of touch points. This is a corrective leg higher, so trading bulls need to be very quick to exit long positions when support breaks. Longs should consider 1,317 and 1,295 for first and second points of support in the week ahead. Though, if that lower trend channel breaks, this market will likely coast lower. That level looks like 1330 for Monday.

COPIED from 2/12/2012

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily with Weekly Support and RSI

In the last few weeks the best Ive been able to do for readers of this report is to identify the levels that should provide support--i.e: stop loss levels for bulls/longs or entry points for those waiting to short. This continues to be the best I can offer under these circumstances. The market his heading for a major double top at this point, so it would be a foolish long not to have some tight stops. With that, 1335 and 1300 look like good first and second levels of support. 1371 is the previous high, so it would be an obvious** last resistance point for the S&P 500.

** Please note there has been a tendency for this market to briefly violate obvious support and resistance points only to reverse back through those levels.

Small RSI Divergence

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Weekly Longer Term Count Updated

Confidence in the previous longer term counting of the y and x waves has wavered due to the price behavior of the market. I am now forced to make a slight adjustment to the previous longstanding count. Its becoming obvious that the last x wave did not conclude at the 1075 low--it had to have concluded later if thats even the correct count. The idea of contracting triangle x wave fits with the thrusting nature of this market since the year began. Confidence in this wave count is tepid. We discussed two other alternative theories last week (copied on the last two pages of this report.) Those counts must also be considered.

y
b d

(B) z

w
d e

e?

x
c a c e

x (C)

BOTTOM LINE: Whether this is the correct count or the models on the next two pages are right, the bottom line is similar--the market is becoming overextended on this leg and is due for some type of decent correction (100-150pts). We will not know which of these models is the correct one until we see the price action down and where it might find support, if any. This market is in an extremely vulnerable place over the next few weeks.

(A)
Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Weekly Line on Close

This is NOT my wave count or idea. This is a count that it is being promoted by Glenn Neely of NeoWave. I cant find too much wrong with it, so it must be considered. He suggests a large contracting triangle from the March 2009 low. Because of the shape of the pattern and the smallness of the b wave, its possible to get a marginally higher high before the (B) wave ultimately completes. It would be a triangle with a strong upward sloping bias. I suppose this count, along with a marginally higher high, would inflict the most amount of pain on the greatest number of people. The bulls would obviously be besides themselves if we were to set a fresh Bhigh in 2012 and the bears would surely throw in the towel.

COPIED from 2/12/2012

c
b

(B) e

c a

(C)

(A)

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Weekly Line on Close

This count is yet another possibility if we take out the highs. This idea was discussed a few months ago and it must be considered. We could be in the middle of large scale diametric. It certainly fits the mold of a diametric in the sense that all the legs have been corrective and have taken similar amounts of time, a key element of a diametric. If this particular shape develops, it will confirm Neelys belief that there are new wave forms that exist as this particular outcome would fit no known orthodox Elliott Wave pattern.

-B(B) b e c
2 b d a b 1 a c c

COPIED from 2/12/2012

a
d b e

f d

a c

4 3

(C)

c (A)
Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS ADDITIONAL INTRA-WEEK AND INTRADAY DISCUSSION ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND TRADING AT TRADERS-ANONYMOUS.BLOGSPOT.COM

Wave Symbology "I" or "A" I or A <I>or <A> -I- or -A(I) or (A) "1 or "a" 1 or a -1- or -a(1) or (a) [1] or [a] [.1] or [.a] = Grand Supercycle = Supercycle = Cycle = Primary = Intermediate = Minor = Minute = Minuette = Sub-minuette = Micro = Sub-Micro

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