Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol

    

Background information Climate change Introduction to UNFCC The Kyoto protocol Tips to reduce impact

 What  Why

is greenhouse gases

are sea levels rising? greenhouse gas is more powerful:

 Which

CO2 or CH4?
 If

we cut all GHG emissions, how long will it

take for climate change to stop?

Planets and atmospheres

Thin atmosphere (CO2 in the ground) Average temperature: - 50C 0,03% of CO2 in the atmosphere Average temperature: + 15C

MARS

EARTH

96% of CO2 in the atmosphere Average temperature: + 420C

VENUS

Human activities are releasing greenhouse gases (GHG) into the atmosphere Climate change is a global issue: 1 tCO2 emitted in India = 1 tCO2 emitted in USA Rising levels of greenhouse gases are already changing the climate Climate models predict the global temperature will rise by about 1.4 to 5.8 degrees by 2100 Climate change is likely to have a significant impact on the global environment, economy and society

1) Solar radiation 2) Reflected back to space 3) Absorbed by atmosphere 4) Infra-red radiations emitted from Earth 5) Some of the IR passes through the atmosphere 6) Some is absorbed and re-emitted by greenhouse gas molecules 6

5 2

1 4 3

The effect is increasing temperatures on Earth

5 degrees = What separates us from the last glacial era (-15 000 BC)

Precipitation

Models forecasts : +1.4 to +5.8 degrees by 2100.

Global average sea level has risen since 1961 at an average rate of 1.8mm/yr and since 1993 at 3.1mm/yr

CO2 concentration, temperature, and sea level continue to rise long after emissions are reduced!

Water supplies stored in glaciers are projected to decline in the course of the century.

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How is climate change linked to human activities? Impacts on

Global Security Human Health Food Production Water Resources Coastal Area

Consequences of climate change:

Agriculture and food security Crop yields, irrigation demands... Forest Composition, health and productivity... Water resources Water supply, water quality... Coastal areas Erosion, inundation, cost of prevention... Species and natural areas Biodiversity, modification of ecosystems... Human health Infectious diseases, human settlements...

> Temperature increase > Sea level rise > More rain

The threats to stability and human security inherent in the impacts of climate change was acknowledged by the Norwegian Nobel Committee in 2007 Rising ethnic conflicts can be linked to competition over increasingly scarce natural resources. Numbers of environmental refugees could increase as extreme events, floods and famines become more frequent. Climate change could force hundred of millions of people from their native land by the end of the century

People exposed to increased water stress by 2020:

 120 million to 1.2 billion in Asia  75 to 250 million in Africa  12 to 81 million in Latin America
Possible yield reduction in agriculture:

 50% by 2020 in some African countries  30% by 2050 in Central and South Asia  30% by 2080 in Latin America
Crop revenues could fall by 90% by 2100 in Africa

Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal disease primarily associated with floods and droughts. Abundance and toxicity of cholera due to increase in coastal water temperature. Increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts.

Crop yields could increase up to 20% in East and Southeast Asia while they could decrease up to 30% in Central and South Asia by 2050 In India, wheat yields could decrease by 5-10% per onedegree rise in temperature

Glacier melt projected to increase flooding, rock avalanches and to affect water resources within the next two to three decades. Salinity of groundwater especially along the coast, due to increases in sea level and over-exploitation. In India, gross per capita water availability will decline from 1820 m3/yr in 2001 to 1140 m3/yr in 2050

Coastal erosion and inundation of coastal lowland as sea level continues to rise, flooding the homes of millions of people living in low lying areas In India, potential impacts of 1 m sea-level rise include inundation of 5,763 km2. Significant losses of coastal ecosystems, affecting the aquaculture industry, particularly in heavily-populated mega-deltas

Droughts in Orissa in 2000-2002 crop failures, mass starvation affecting 11 million people.

Heat waves have become more frequent over most land areas

- Heat wave in Europe, 2003: 35 000 deaths

The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas
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Rainfall in Mumbai (India), 2005: 1 million people lost their homes

The proportion of tropical cyclones reaching higher intensity have increased over the past 3 decades - Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar, 2008: 100 000 estimated deaths

Cyclone Thane crossed the Tamil Nadu coast, leaving 37 people dead in south India.

Adaptive capacity to multiple stressors in India

District-level vulnerability
Lowest Low Medium High Highest Double exposed Urban districts Missing data

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Heavy reliance on coal, which accounts for 40% of primary energy demand and 70% of electricity output. 70% of crude-oil requirements imported. 3.6% of expected average annual increase in energy demand in 2005-2030. $1.7 trillion worth expected investment needs in energy infrastructure in 2006-2030 Future energy infrastructure investment decisions will have long-term impacts on GHG emissions

When did the Kyoto Protocol come into effect, and why not before? What is the main difference between UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol? What does it mean when we talk about the commitment period? What are the Flexible Mechanisms? What are the two main purposes of CDM?

  

1979 The first World Climate Conference (WCC) takes place. 1988 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is set up. 1990 IPCCs first assessment report released.
IPCC and second World Climate Conference call for a global treaty on climate change. United Nations General Assembly negotiations on a framework convention begin.

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1994 UNFCCC enters into force. 2005 Entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol. 2009 Copenhagen Accord drafted at COP15 in Copenhagen.
Countries later submitted emissions reductions pledges or mitigation action pledges, all non-binding.

2011 The Durban Platform for Enhanced Action drafted and accepted by the COP, at COP17

A global legal instrument (international agreement) to protect the climate system and stabilize GHG emissions Adopted in 1992, entered into force in 1994 Status of participation: 195 Parties Contains 2 annexes:
Annex 1: countries with obligations to take measures to mitigate the effects of climate change Annex 2: countries with obligations to provide financing to developing countries for their obligations under UNFCCC

  

Overall goal and objectives

What is the overall goal?
to protect the climate system for the benefit of present and future generations of mankind.

What are the further objectives?

to achieve stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

Adopted at third Conference of Parties (COP) to the UNFCCC in Kyoto in 1997 Required ratification of > 55 countries representing > 55% of GHG emissions Entered into force on February 16th, 2005 after ratification of the Russian Federation Now 191 countries have ratified the protocol

    

Six emissions: CO2, CH4, N2O, PFCs, HFCs, SF6 Binding emission reduction targets for Annex I countries of 5.2% below 1990 over 2008-2012 Non-Annex I countries have no binding targets but must report on their actions Annex I countries can achieve targets through domestic policies and three market mechanisms Non-Annex I countries can participate through the Clean Development Mechanism to facilitate sustainable development Rules for implementation worked out at annual COP meetings

Australia Austria Belarus Belgium Bulgaria Canada Croatia Czech Rep Denmark EC

Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Japan

Latvia Liechtenstein Lithuania Luxembourg Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Romania

Russia Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey Ukraine UK USA

* Countries with economies in transition to a market economy. * Countries which did not ratify Kyoto protocol.

Emission trends in Annex 1 countries (2009)

ET - Emissions Trading o AAU (Assigned Amount Units) are exchanged between Annex I countries JI - Joint Implementation o Annex I investors receive ERUs (Emission Reduction Units) by investing in a project in another Annex I nation which reduces GHG emissions CDM - Clean Development Mechanism o Annex I investors receive CERs (Certified Emission Reductions) by investing in a project in a non-Annex I nation which reduces GHG emissions

What Annex I countries can do

Limitations of CO2 emissions in developed countries (Annex I)

4 options for companies

1/ Pay expensive fines.

2/ Carry out carbon reduction through processes improvement.

4/ Carry out carbon 3/ Buy emissions reduction through credits on the CO2 market (ETS). technology transfers in CDM or JI project.

Cleaner Production and Kyoto Protocol Opportunities

Policy advice on industrys needs to enable JI/CDM Submit pilot and full-scale projects to GEF.
Cleaner Production Activities

Engage in technology needs assessments project Propose JI/CDM projects Raise awareness of JI/CDM opportunities among local key industries and partners Assistance in formulation of National Implementation Plans (GHG inventories, needs, etc.).

Kyoto Protocol

Technology transfer to improve process and energy efficiency Co-finance investments by selling emission credits Prepare for future commitments (after 2012) Achieve sustainable development

What can be done to protect the climate system?

Enhancement of energy efficiency. Protection of sinks. Limitation and reduction of transport and waste management. Policy changes

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Replace a regular incandescent light bulb with a compact fluorescent light bulb (cfl). Clean or replace filters on your air conditioner. Choose energy efficient appliances when making new purchases. Use less hot water. Buy fresh foods instead of frozen. Seek out and support local farmers markets. Buy organic foods as much as possible.

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Buy recycled paper products. Plant a tree. Turn off electronic devices you're not using and Unplug electronics from the wall when you're not using them.

Gandhi was once asked if he expected India to attain the same standard of living as Britain. He replied: It took Britain half the resources of the planet to achieve this prosperity. How many planets will a country like India require!

Only when the last tree has been cut down; Only when the last river has been poisoned; Only when the last fish has been caught; Only then man realize money cannot be eaten.

Thank you for your attention

Any questions?