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Last weekend, we put forward the idea that the New Year would start with a decent move higher. Mr. Market did not disappoint as the S&P 500 rallied 27 pts on the first day of the trading year. It still looks like it has further to work higher but is now entering sell territory as the c-wave seems closer to completing. Targets remain 1293 or 1311 for the c-wave.
a
1284
c?
-c-
(B) z e?
-a-
d?
-b-
-c-
b?
(C)
a
-a-
(B) z e?
d?
-b-
-c-
b?
(C)
First and Second points of resistance remain unchanged from last week, but we can now raise support points for traders who are holding length. 1265 is the 23.6% retrace of the last move higher and aligns with last weeks low print. 1248 looks like classic chart support. Those levels should be considered decent points for stop loss strategies.
Ive made some slight adjustments to weekly resistance and support. The market exhibited some signs of peaking action on Friday, but well need to see some follow through on Tuesday to confirm the topping action. A break of 1274 would cause me to sell short and should certainly stop out traders who are holding length. 1274 is the 23.6% of the move up from 1200 and aligns well with previous chart support. Alternatively, I will sell this market short between 1297 and 1311 if we get to that zone. I will risk 20% of Max Short on either one of these trades if they get triggered.
-Y(I)
e (H)
(C)
(F)
(B)
The short term implications here are bullish, but traders must understand that Gold is approaching the end of multi-decade move, so it will be very smart to use good risk management techniques. In other words, USE STOP LOSS STRATEGIES ON LONG POSITIONS. The bounce up from $1,524 has been decent and it appears to be a medium term bottom. Traders should use the 61.8% retrace of this move as a first level of support--that level would be $1,565/oz based on Fridays close. Traders should consider trimming length below that level ($1,565) and should not be holding ANY length below $1,524.
Last weeks Gold update made the case for a shorter term bullish move in the yellow metal. This slide is for any traders/investors who are holding speculative length. Im raising stops on length to 1609 and 1593. Those are nice Fibonacci retracements that also align well with obvious chart support. In terms of wave count, its too early to tell what shape or pattern is playing out. Its an odd formation at present; so, best to be nimble as its hard to say what exactly is unfolding. The move up from 1523.90 does NOT look impulsive which is the other reason to be running tighter stops for short term length.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS ADDITIONAL INTRA-WEEK AND INTRADAY DISCUSSION ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND TRADING AT TRADERS-ANONYMOUS.BLOGSPOT.COM
Wave Symbology "I" or "A" I or A <I>or <A> -I- or -A(I) or (A) "1 or "a" 1 or a -1- or -a(1) or (a) [1] or [a] [.1] or [.a] = Grand Supercycle = Supercycle = Cycle = Primary = Intermediate = Minor = Minute = Minuette = Sub-minuette = Micro = Sub-Micro
This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. This report is technical commentary only. The author is NOT representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. This merely reflects the authors interpretation of technical analysis. The author may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information contained in this commentary is taken from sources the author believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the author as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone. Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading: Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.