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Interesting Trends In The US, Per Capita Supply Of Fruits And Vegetables

Based on USDA-ERS Data Steve Savage Savage & Associates Applied Mythology Blog

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Background
Data Source
The Economic Research Service of the USDA has been tracking farm level supply of many food commodities for 40-50 years and makes this data available to the public (http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/FoodConsumption/FoodAvailSpreadsheets.ht m)

Data Limitations (http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/FoodConsumption/FoodAvailDoc.htm)


This data set is actually at the Grower/Shipper level for domestic, US production and at the importer level The data does not reflect the actual per capita availability of products for consumer consumption because it does not account for shrink (decay, damage, ) in the distribution change, or for waste that occurs at the consumer level. That is estimated in another USDA-ERS data set (http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/EIB44/EIB44_ReportSummary.pdf)
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Savage & Associates The data for 2010 was available in some cases, but most of this analysis is through 2009

Total Fruit and Vegetable Supply Trends (Fresh and Processed)


At a high level, the supply data would seem to suggest a troubling reversal of produce consumption progress in the US since the late 1990s The underlying situation is, not surprisingly, much more complex
US Fruit and Vegetable Consumption Trends
450 425 400 Pounds/Person/Year 375 350 325 300 275 250 225 200 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Vegetables

Fruit

Savage & Associates

Fresh vs Processed Vegetables


A declining supply of canned and frozen vegetables accounts for much of the recent, negative trend; however, the supply of fresh vegetable has also declined in the last few years after two decades of gains
US Vegetable Consumption Trends
200

Fresh
Pounds/Person/Year 150

Canned
100

50

Frozen
Dried Potato Chips

0 1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Savage & Associates

Fresh vs Processed Fruit


Most of the decline in total fruit supply has been for juice with slight declines for canned and dried fruit Fresh fruit supply has been essentially flat since the mid 1990s and there has been a small amount of growth in the supply of frozen fruit
US Fruit Consumption Trends
140 120 Pounds/Person/Year 100 80 60 40 20 0 1970

Fresh Juice

Canned Dried
1980

Frozen Other 1990


2000 2010

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Trends for Major Juice Categories


Orange juice supply has dropped by ~15 lbs/person since a peak in the 1990s Apple juice supply has been increasing since 1970, much of this coming from outside of the US
Juice Consumption Trends 60

50
Orange Grapefruit Lemon Lime Apple Grape Pineapple Cranberry Prune

Pounds/Person/Year

40

30

20

10

0 1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Savage & Associates

Sourcing of the US Fresh Vegetable Supply


The domestic portion of the per capita US fresh vegetable supply has been flat since the early 1990s and has declined on that basis in recent years The supply of imported vegetables has been increasing slowly since 1960 and accounted for most overall supply increase for many years
Source Trends for US Vegetable Consumption

200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1960

Pounds per Person per Year

Domestic Imports Total

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010 Savage & Associates

Sourcing of the US Fresh Fruit Supply


The domestic portion of the US, per capita, fresh fruit supply has been declining slowly since ~1990 and now represents ~50% of the total The supply of imported fruit has been increasing steadily since at least 1970 and has prevented the total from declining for two decades
Source Trends for US Fruit Consumption
Pounds per Person per Year 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1970 Domestic Imports Total

1980

1990

2000

2010
Savage & Associates

Trends for Major, Fresh, Imported Vegetable Crops


Imports of nine vegetables have represented a significant and growing proportion of the supply of those particular crops

90 80 Percent of Total US Supply 70 60 50 40 30

Vegetable Crops With A High and Increasing Proportion of Imports All Fr. Veg
Artichokes Asparagus Brussels Cucumbers Eggplant Garlic

20 10 0 1990 Peppers Squash 1995 2000 2005 2010 Tomatoes

10

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Trends for Minor, Fresh, Imported Vegetable Crops


Six vegetable crops that are still mainly produced in the US have seen modest import growth over the long-term
Vegetable Crops With A Small but Increasing Proportion of Imports
20 18 Percent of Total US Supply 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2
11

All Fr. Veg Broccoli Carrots Head Lettuce Mushrooms Romaine Sweet Corn

0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

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Trends for Fresh, Imported Fruit Crops


Beyond crops like bananas and mangoes that are essentially all imported, there are eleven crops for which the percent of imported product has been rising over time
Fruit Crops With An Increasing Proportion of Imports
100 90 Percent of Total US Supply 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10
12

All Fr. Fruit Avocados Cantaloupe Grapefruit Grapes Kiwifruit Lemons Limes Papayas Pineapple Strawberries Tangerines
1995 2000 2005 2010

0
1990

Savage & Associates

US Per Capita Fresh Vegetable Supply


Crop Carrots Head Lettuce Potatoes Escarole Cabbage Celery Cauliflower Cucumbers Mushrooms Garlic Sweet Corn Tomatoes Squash Broccoli Onions Radishes Brussels Sprouts Snap Beans Peppers Artichokes Sweet Potatoes Eggplant Romaine Asparagus Okra Spinach 13 Total lbs/person 2007-9 1997-9 7.8 11.0 17.4 23.7 37.7 47.3 0.2 0.3 7.8 8.3 6.2 6.5 1.6 1.7 6.5 6.5 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.6 9.1 8.9 19.0 18.3 4.2 4.1 5.9 5.4 20.6 18.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 1.9 1.6 9.4 7.6 1.5 1.2 5.1 3.9 0.8 0.6 11.0 6.9 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.3 1.8 1.0 183.3 190.1 Change lbs/person Percent -3.1 -40.0 -6.3 -36.0 -9.6 -25.6 0.0 -17.2 -0.6 -7.3 -0.3 -5.2 -0.1 -4.6 -0.1 -1.2 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.9 0.2 2.5 0.7 3.8 0.2 4.3 0.5 9.0 2.0 9.7 0.1 11.9 0.0 13.8 0.3 15.9 1.8 19.4 0.4 23.9 1.2 24.1 0.3 33.0 4.0 36.9 0.5 37.2 0.2 38.9 0.7 42.1 -6.9 -3.6

Fresh Vegetables
Comparing the window 2007-9 with the window 1997-9, there has been a 3.6% drop in total per capita supply Eight crops showed declining supply, most notably potatoes, head lettuce, carrots, and cabbage 18 crops saw increasing supply, 11 with more than a 10% increase in that decade
Savage & Associates

US Per Capita Fresh Fruit Supply


Crop Grapefruit Oranges Honeydew Cantaloupe Apples Bananas Kiwifruit Peaches Pears Lemons Grapes Apricots Tangerines Mangoes Strawberries Pineapple Limes Papayas Avocados Cherries Blueberries Raspberries Total
14

Fresh Fruit
Comparing the window 2007-9 with the window 1997-9, there has been a 3.1% drop in total per capita fresh fruit supply Nine crops saw declining supply (greatest for grape fruit, oranges, apples bananas and cantaloupes) 13 crops saw increasing supply, 10 with more than a 20% increase in that decade
Savage & Associates

lbs/person 2007-9 1997-9 2.9 6.0 8.8 12.3 1.7 2.3 9.3 10.8 16.2 18.5 25.2 28.6 0.5 0.5 4.7 5.2 3.1 3.4 2.6 2.6 8.2 7.6 0.1 0.1 2.9 2.3 2.1 1.5 6.6 4.2 5.1 2.7 2.4 1.3 1.1 0.5 3.8 1.7 1.3 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.1 109.8 113.3

Change lbs/person Percent -3.0 -50.8 -3.5 -28.3 -0.6 -26.6 -1.6 -14.7 -2.3 -12.3 -3.4 -11.8 -0.1 -10.4 -0.5 -9.9 -0.3 -9.3 0.0 0.9 0.5 6.9 0.0 8.6 0.6 25.8 0.6 36.8 2.4 58.0 2.4 86.9 1.1 88.1 0.6 109.0 2.1 120.7 0.7 123.5 0.5 153.9 0.3 326.9 -3.5 -3.1

Examples of Declining Fresh Fruit Supply: Grapefruit


Grapefruit consumption and supply have been in long-term decline, some of which was shifting towards exports, but those have also declined
Fresh Grapefruit Consumption Trend
10 9 8 Pound/Person/Year 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Total

Domestic Exports

Imports

15

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 -3 lbs/person, 51% decline


Savage & Associates

Examples of Declining Fresh Fruit Supply: Oranges


Fresh Orange Consumption Trend

Fresh orange consumption and supply have been in long-term decline This crop still has a significant export segment Imports are minor, but increasing

18 16 14 Pound/Person/Year 12 10 8

Total

Exports
6 4 2 0 1970

Domestic

Imports
1980 1990 2000 2010

16

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 -3.5lbs/person, 28% decline


Savage & Associates

Examples of Declining Fresh Fruit Supply: Cantaloupe


Fresh Cantaloupe Consumption Trend

Pound/Person/Year

After a long period of overall growth, the cantaloupe supply has declined significantly since the late 1990s Domestic supply, and to a lesser extent, imported supply, are declining

12

10

Total Domestic

Imports
2

Exports
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

17

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 -1.6 lbs/person, 14.7% decline


Savage & Associates

Examples of Declining Fresh Fruit Supply: Honeydews


Honeydew supply has been dropping since the late 1990s because of falling domestic supply and flat imports
Fresh Honeydew Consumption Trend
3.0

2.5

Pound/Person/Year

Total
2.0

1.5

Domestic
1.0

Imports
0.5

Exports
0.0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

18

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 -0.6 lbs/person, 27% decline


Savage & Associates

Examples of Declining Fresh Fruit Supply: Peaches


Peach supplies have been falling slowly since 1980 Imports remain a small factor for this crop
Pound/Person/Year

Fresh Peach Consumption Trend


8 7

Total
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1970

Domestic

Exports Imports
1980 1990 2000 2010

19

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 -0.5 lbs/person, 10% decline


Savage & Associates

Examples of Declining Fresh Fruit Supply: Apples


Fresh Apple Consumption Trend

Pound/Person/Year

Total fresh apple supply has decreased slightly on a per capita basis since the Alar scare of 1989

25

20

Total Domestic

15

10

Exports
5

Imports
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

20

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 -2.3 lbs/person, 12% decline


Savage & Associates

Examples of Declining Fresh Fruit Supply: Bananas


Fresh Banana Consumption Trend

Banana supply (nearly 100% imported) peaked in 1999 and has declined ~1/6 since them
Pound/Person/Year

35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Total

Imports

-5

21

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 -3.4 lbs/person, 12% decline


Savage & Associates

Examples of Increasing Fresh Fruit Supply: Tangerines


Fresh Tangerine Consumption Trend

Pound/Person/Year

Tangerine supply and consumption have been growing rapidly since 1990

3.5 3.0 2.5

Total
2.0

Domestic
1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1970

Imports Exports
1980 1990 2000 2010

22

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 +0.6 lbs/person, 26% increase


Savage & Associates

Examples of Increasing Fresh Fruit Supply: Limes


Lime supply and consumption has been growing rapidly since 1980
Pound/Person/Year

Fresh Lime Consumption Trend


3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
1970 1980 1990

Total

Imports Domestic Exports


2000 2010

-0.5

23

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 +1.1 lbs/person, 88% increase


Savage & Associates

Examples of Increasing Fresh Fruit Supply: Avocados


Imports are driving growth in the Avocado supply with domestic sources flat to declining
Pound/Person/Year

Fresh Avocado Consumption Trend


4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Total

Domestic

Imports

24

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 +2.1 lbs/person, 121% increase


Savage & Associates

Examples of Increasing Fresh Fruit Supply: Strawberries


Strawberry supply has been increasing since 1970 with an accelerated rate of growth since 2000 Strawberries remain a primarily domestic crop although there has been a small increase in imports
Fresh Strawberry Consumption Trend
8 7 6 Pound/Person/Year

Total
5 4

Domestic
3 2 1 0 1970

Exports Imports
1980 1990 2000 2010

25

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 +2.4 lbs/person, 58% increase


Savage & Associates

Examples of Increasing Fresh Fruit Supply: Blueberries


Fresh Blueberry Consumption Trend

Blueberries have risen 5 fold from a tiny fresh segment in the 1980s to nearly 1 lb/person by 2009 The growth in supply is from both domestic and import sources

1.0 0.9 0.8 Pound/Person/Year 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
1970 1980 1990

Total

Domestic Imports Exports


2000 2010

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 +0.5 lbs/person, 154% increase


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Savage & Associates

Examples of Increasing Fresh Fruit Supply: Raspberries


Fresh Raspberry Consumption Trend

Pound/Person/Year

Fresh raspberries have recently emerged as a minor but growing fruit option for US consumers Growth of both domestic and import sources have broadened the window of availability

0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 1970

Total

Domestic

Imports
1980 1990 2000 2010

27

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 +0.3 lbs/person, 327% increase


Savage & Associates

Examples of Increasing Fresh Fruit Supply: Pineapples


There has been a dramatic increase in the supply and usage of fresh pineapples since the mid 1990s when Golden Pineapple varieties began to be successfully shipped Between 1990 and 2009 the supply has gone from 50% to 100% imports
Fresh Pineapple Consumption Trend
6

4 Pound/Person/Year

Total
3

Imports
2

Domestic Exports

0 1970 -1

1980

1990

2000

2010

28

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 +2.4 lbs/person, 87% increase


Savage & Associates

Examples of Increasing Fresh Fruit Supply: Papayas


There has been a dramatic increase in the supply and usage of fresh papayas since 1990 A small domestic production persists, but all of the growth has been through imports
Fresh Papaya Consumption Trend
1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6

Pound/Person/Year

Total

Imports
0.4 0.2

Exports
0.0 1970 1980 1990

Domestic
2000 2010

29

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 +0.6 lbs/person, 109% increase


Savage & Associates

Examples of Increasing Fresh Fruit Supply: Grapes


Domestic table grape supplies have been declining slowly: ~20% since 1990, but imports have increased leading to some overall growth, perhaps until recent years There is a slow shift underway towards imported grapes The export of table grapes is significant
Fresh Table Grape Consumption Trend
10 9 8 Pound/Person/Year 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Total Domestic Imports

Exports

30

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 +0.5 lbs/person, 7% increase


Savage & Associates

Examples of Increasing Fresh Fruit Supply: Cherries


Fresh Cherry Consumption Trend

Pound/Person/Year

Import/Export data was not available from the same USDA-ERS source, but fresh cherry supply has been increasing dramatically since 1995

1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1970

Total

1980

1990

2000

2010

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 +0.7 lbs/person, 124% increase


31

Savage & Associates

Examples of Increasing Fresh Fruit Supply: Mangoes


Fresh Mango Consumption Trend

Pound/Person/Year

Mango supply, essentially all imported, has increased dramatically since 1980

2.5

2.0

Total
1.5

1.0

0.5

Imports Exports

0.0 1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

32

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 +0.6 lbs/person, 37% increase


Savage & Associates

Examples of Decreasing Fresh Vegetable Supply: Carrots


Carrot consumption more than doubled in the 1990s, but has since declined significantly This remains a predominantly domestic crop
US Carrot Consumption Trend
16 14 12 10 8

Pounds /Person/Year

Total

Domestic
6 4 2 0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Imports Exports

33

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 -3.1 lbs/person, 40% decline


Savage & Associates

Examples of Decreasing Fresh Vegetable Supply: Cabbage


The cabbage supply has declined slowly since the mid 1990s There is a very limited imported supply
US Cabbage Consumption Trend
12

10 Pounds /Person/Year

Total

Domestic
6

Exports
0
1960 1970 1980 1990

Imports
2000 2010

34

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 -0.6 lbs/person, 7% decline


Savage & Associates

Examples of Decreasing Fresh Vegetable Supply: US Head Lettuce Consumption Trend Head Lettuce
30

After reaching a peak in 1990, the head lettuce supply has declined significantly This has been mainly a replacement phenomenon with other lettuce types

25 Pounds /Person/Year

Total Domestic

20

15

10

0
Lettuce
30 25 Pounds/P erson/Year 20 15 10 5 Head lettuce Romaine & leaf

Exports Imports
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

1960

35

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 -6.3 lbs/person, 36% decline


2010

0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Savage & Associates

Examples of Decreasing Fresh Vegetable Supply: Potatoes


US Potato Consumption Trend
90 80

Pounds /Person/Year

Fresh potato supply is now less than of what it was in 1960 but still almost exclusively a domestic crops Both fresh and processed potato supplies have been declining

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Total Domestic Exports

Imports

Potatoes
100 90 Pounds/Person/Year 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Fresh Processing

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 -9.6 lbs/person, 26% decline

36

Savage & Associates

Examples of Increasing Fresh Vegetable Supply: Artichokes


US Artichoke Consumption Trend

Pounds /Person/Year

Artichoke supply has been increasing steadily since 1980 (nearly 4X) The domestic supply has been declining very slowly, but imports have risen rapidly since 1980

1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
1960 1970

Total

Imports

Domestic

Exports
1980 1990 2000 2010

37

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 +0.4 lbs/person, 24% increase


Savage & Associates

Examples of Increasing Fresh Vegetable Supply: Asparagus


Asparagus is an increasingly popular vegetable for consumers as it has become available as a fresh option for most of the year The domestic supply has declined since the mid eighties, and imports have increased dramatically
US Asparagus Consumption Trend
1.4 1.2 Pounds /Person/Year 1.0 0.8 0.6

Total

Imports

Domestic
0.4 0.2

Exports
0.0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

38

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 +0.5 lbs/person, 37% increase


Savage & Associates

Examples of Increasing Fresh Vegetable Supply: Broccoli


US Broccoli Consumption Trend
7

Broccoli supply grew rapidly from 1970 and peaked in 2000. It dropped, and then has recovered, particularly in recent years A small but growing import segment has also appeared

6 Pounds /Person/Year 5 4 3 2 1

Total

Domestic

Exports
0 1960

Imports
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

39

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 +0.5 lbs/person, 9% increase


Savage & Associates

Examples of Increasing Fresh Vegetable Supply: Eggplant


US Eggplant Consumption Trend

Pounds /Person/Year

Eggplants are a small part of the US fresh produce supply, but have been growing rapidly on a percentage basis, particularly since 1990 Growth is occurring in both the domestic and imported supply

1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Total

Domestic Imports Exports

40

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 +0.3lbs/person, 33% increase


Savage & Associates

Examples of Increasing Fresh Vegetable Supply: Okra


The US fresh Okra supply, though small, has been increasing at a significant rate and shifting rapidly to an import market
US Okra Consumption Trend
0.50 0.45 0.40 Pounds /Person/Year 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 1980

Total

Imports Domestic Exports


1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

41

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 +0.2lbs/person, 39% increase


Savage & Associates

Examples of Increasing Fresh Vegetable Supply: US Pepper Consumption Trend Peppers


Pounds /Person/Year

Pepper supply has been rising rapidly since ~1980 though most of the growth since 1990 has been from imports This include both chile and bell types

10

9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

Total

Domestic

Imports Exports
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Peppers
10 9 Pounds/Person/Year 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Chile peppers, all Bell peppers, all

1960

42

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 +1.8 lbs/person, 19% increase


Savage & Associates

Examples of Increasing Fresh Vegetable Supply: Romaine Lettuce


Since it began to be tracked in the mid-80s, romaine lettuce has been a rapidly growing segment with some possible slow-down in the last few years
US Romaine Lettuce Consumption Trend
14 12

Total
Pounds /Person/Year 10

Domestic
8 6 4 2 0
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Exports

Imports

43

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 +4 lbs/person, 37% increase


Savage & Associates

Examples of Increasing Fresh Vegetable Supply: Spinach


US Spinach Consumption Trend

Spinach rose from a small crop in 1990 to more than 2 lbs/person/year The E. coli event in 2005 seems to have only temporarily set back the crop Drivers are flavor, This crop is essentially all produced domestically

2.5

2.0 Pounds /Person/Year

1.5

Total

1.0

Domestic
0.5

Imports
0.0
1960 1970 1980 1990

Exports

2000

2010

44

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 +0.7 lbs/person, 42% increase


Savage & Associates

Examples of Increasing Fresh Vegetable Supply: Tomatoes


US Tomato Consumption Trend
25

Though the total supply appears to be leveling, fresh tomatoes still increased by a significant number of pounds since 1997-9 Recent gains have been mainly as imports Canned tomato products have held steady in the US supply
90 80 Pounds/Person/Year 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1970 1975 Fresh

20 Pounds /Person/Year

Total
15

10

Domestic

Imports Exports
1980 1990 2000 2010

0
1970

Tomatoes

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 +0.7 lbs/person, 3.8% increase

Canning

45

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

2010

Savage & Associates

Examples of Increasing Fresh Vegetable Supply: Sweet Potato


US Sweet Potato Consumption Trend

Pounds /Person/Year

After decades of slow decline, sweet potato supply/consumption has been rising since the late 1990s

7 6 5 4

Total Domestic

3 2 1 0
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

Imports

Exports

46

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 +1.2 lbs/person, 24% increase


Savage & Associates

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