Technology Trends

You Need to Know

Paul Gillin
Paul Gillin Communications
Propositions
•Seemingly small technology changes
can create massive disruptions over
time
•We rarely see these coming
•Changes in platforms and tools are
the most disruptive
•Disruptive change almost always
come from the low end of the market
•The next disruptive change is upon us
 Change agents
1975 Toyota
Corolla

1965 transistor
radio

1995 cell phone

1985 fax machine

 Information technology
dynamics

•Processing capacity per dollar

doubles every 18 months
•Storage costs are approaching
zero
•Bandwidth will be cheap and
Moore’s Law
ubiquitous
 Technology disrupts from the bottom up

Word processing Personal fax LANs GUIs

1980 Spreadsheet Laser printer Unix Presentation 1990

Personal
graphics
computer

Network
Cell phones PDAs meetings

1990 Internet
Instant Java 2000
messaging

Blogs
Peer to peer Wireless LANs

2000 Open source VOIP Disk-based MP3 Wikis 2005

players
 The next wave
 Broadband ubiquity plus open source are
sparking a new wave of innovation – Web
2.0
 Centers of influence are dispersing
 Economics of software are shifting
 Speed of execution becoming more
important
 We’re moving toward an always-connected
world
 Web 2.0
Broadband is mainstream
160
140
120
100 36% Active Internet
users
80 67%
Broadband
57% subscribers
60
40
20
0
US

Ch

Ja

So

Fra

Ge

UK

Ca
pa

na
ut h
i na

r
A

nc

ma
n

da
e
Ko

ny

Sources: Nielsen/Net Ratings

re

& Computer Industry Almanac

a
 Web 2.0
 One-button publishing and search are
remaking media – 10,000 blogs launch
every day
 Influence is moving to the “long tail”
 Channels of influence becoming narrower
and more subject-specific
 Opportunity to interact with customers at a
whole new level
 Limited window of opportunity
A market of niches

Source: Wired magazine

 Rethinking software

•Open beta test

•Open source
foundation
•Published interfaces
•Iterative development
•“Live” delivery
 Open interfaces

Combines USGS data with Google maps to display earthquake hot spots
 Open Source comes of age
Open Source Software Revenue
 More than 100,000
projects listed on $65
$70
Sourceforge.net CAGR
52%
$60
 Recent major $50
contributions from IBM, $40

$Billion
HP, Sun, CA $30

 Watch the LAMP stack $20 $8

Corporate acceptance $10

$0
 Licensing still a major 2004 2009
concern Source: Gartner
 Open Source’s role

Gartner predicts:
 By 2008, open source will compete with closed source in

every infrastructure market (this has basically

happened already)
 By 2010, mainstream IT shops will consider open source

for 80 percent of their infrastructure software needs and

25 percent of their business software needs.
 Open source is an imperative for software vendors: “By

2010 software companies that don’t incorporate open

source into offered solutions risk becoming
uncompetitive.” – Nick Gall
Software as a service
(SaaS)
 Salesforce.com was a proof of concept;
model spreading; more than 100 companies
 Principally used in business (non-
infrastructure) applications
 Lower cost business model
 Sales, channel, support, maintenance savings
 Lower barrier to entry
 Will become dominant mode of delivery for
new companies
 Data center remake
 Trend began after 9/11
 Business drivers: control, reliability,
service levels, security, cost
 Technology drivers:
standardization, virtualization, high-
speed networks, open source, SOA,
outsourcing Sun Fire B100x Blade Server

 Multi-year process
 Internal IT must compete for users’
business
 Convergence gets real
 Shift to IP backbone almost
Enterprise mobile/wireless
complete spending
 VOIP moves to next phase $140

 Convergence point at the $120

end-user device - $100

 Phone will be the $80

$Billions
interface of choice $60

$40
 Wireless, mobile services
$20
become transparent
$0
 “Presence” drives 2005 2008
Source: Visiongain

applications; workgroup
productivity
 In summary

 Web 2.0 signals a rebirth of innovation: Blogs,

podcasts and RSS will change market dynamics
 Software economics are shifting due to open
source and Internet delivery
 Development becoming iterative and open; speed
to market is more important than ever
 Consolidation is a long-term IT trend
 Customers will be constantly connected. New
applications should assume this
Thank you!

Paul Gillin
781-929-6754
paul@gillin.com
www.gillin.com