PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

APPLICATION:

Reliability engineering Time-estimate of failure Production: Quality control Communication Systems

PROBABILITY:

Probability(P) is a manner of the likelihood of the occurrence of a particular outcome.

Example: A machine which manufacture electronic component. The components are selected at random.

Let A be the outcome that a component meets the

specification. Let 92 meet the specification.

out of 100 components

Let B be the outcome that a component fails.

P(A)=Probability of A occurring =

P(B)=Probability of B occurring =
Thus:

P(A)

0.92

P(B)

0.08

NOTE: The sum of the probabilities of all possible outcomes is 1. The process of selecting a component is called TRIAL. The possible outcomes are called EVENTS.

EXPERIMENTAL MEASUREMENT: THIS IS

DONE BY MEASURING PROBABILITY BY SERIES OF TRIALS.

Let E be an event. Let the probability of the event E occurring be P(E). Let n be the number of times the trial is repeated. Let m be the number of times the event occurs.

The larger the number of trials that take place. The more confident we are of the estimate of the probability of E occurring.

If m=0, which corresponds to E never occurring in a trial.

Thus, E is an impossible event.

If m=n, which corresponds to E never occurring in a trial.

Thus, E is a certain event.

Again, the larger the number of trials that take place. The more confident we are of the estimate of the probability of E occurring. Example: If we wish to estimate the probability of a head occurring, then measuring the results of 1000 tosses of the coins is likely to yields a more accurate estimate than measuring the result of 10 tosses of coins.

THEORETICAL MEASUREMENT:
This done by deducing the probability of an event purely from theoretical considerations. Tossing a coin:

Let H be the event that the coin lands with the head. Such P(H) = = 0.5

Rolling a fair die:

Let S be the event that one of the sides occurs. Such P(S) = 1/6=0.167

MORE THAN 1 OUTCOME OF A TRIAL:

The sum of the probabilities of all possible outcomes is 1. Representing the total probability.

COMPOUND EVENT

Conditions:
It is a compound event if two or more events occur at a time. If either of the events occur at a time. Example: Considering the situation of rolling a die, two possible events are considered:

E1:

a 1,2,3 and 4 is obtained. E2: an even number is obtained.

VENN DIAGRAM

E1: Let both E(1) and E(2) occur. A compound

event.

E(3)=E(1) E(2) E(3)={1,2,3,4} E{2,4,6} E(3)={2,4} Therefore, E(3) occurs when 2 or a 4 is rolled. The probability of E(3)
E(3) = 2/6 = 1/3

E4: Let E(1) occurs or E(2) occurs. A compound

event.

E(4)=E(1) U E(2) E(4)={1,2,3,4} U E{2,4,6} E(4)={1,2,3,4,6} Therefore, E(4) occurs when1,2,3,4,6 are rolled. The probability of E(4) E(4) = 5/6

EXAMPLE:

Machines A and B make components, which are then placed on a conveyor belt. Of those made by machine A, 93% are acceptable. Of those made by machine B, 95% are acceptable. Machine A makes 60% of the components and Machine B makes the rest Find the probability that a component selected at random from the conveyor belt is

A. made by machine A B. made by machine A and acceptable C. made by machine B and acceptable D. made by machine B and unacceptable

EXAMPLE:

Consider the case in the previous example when 1000 components are picked from the conveyor belt. Construct a tree diagram to have a straightforward approach of calculating the required probabilities.

MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS: THE

ADDITION LAW OF PROBABILITY

Mutually exclusive events mean that the occurrence of one excludes the occurrence of the other. Mutually exclusive events are depicted as disjoint sets.

MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS: THE ADDITION

LAW OF PROBABILITY

For Mutually exclusive events the addition law of probability applies.

P[(E1)+(E2)++(En)= P[(E1)U(E2)UU(En)= P(E1)+P(E2)++P(En)

EXAMPLE:

The lifespan of 5000 electrical components are measured to assess their reliability. The lifespan(L) is recorded and the results are shown in the table below. Find the probability that a randomly selected component will last
More than 3 years Between 3 and 5 years Less than 4 years

Lifespan (yrs)
L>5 4<L5 3<L4 L3

Numbers
500 2250 1850 400