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Probability Theory
QM 2010 - Kingston
Overview
Event, experiment, and sample space Addition rule for probabilities Multiplication rule for probabilities Bayes Theorem
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Experiment
The activity that produces an event
Sample space
The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment
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Probability
Let A be some event. Based on prior knowledge (classical probability) No. of ways A can happen P[ A] Tot no. of all possible events Based on observations in the past (relative frequency of occurrence)
No. of times A happened P[ A] Tot no. of all possible events Based on subjective estimation
Note: When only 1 event can take place, above probabilities are known as marginal probabilities or un-conditional probabilities
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Venn Diagrams
Entire sample space is represented by a rectangle The set of events we are interested in is represented by any closed curve (circle, ellipse, square, etc). If 2 or more events are mutually exclusive, their closed curves are shown not overlapping.
If not (if they can occur together), their closed curves are shown overlapping.
Parts from supplier A Parts from supplier B QM 2010 Parts from all suppliers (sample space)Kingston
From supplier A (sample space) Parts with wrong length 7 Parts with wrong diameter Parts with wrong length AND wrong diameter
(Statistical) Independence
Two events (and their respective probabilities) are said to be (statistically) independent, if the probability of either of them happening does not affect the probability of the other happening. Example
Two suppliers, A and B, have supplied batch of 1000 parts each, of which some parts are known to be bad (defective). Let P[A] be P[picking bad part from A], and P[B] be P[picking bad part from B] Then above events and the respective probabilities P[A] and P[B] are independent
QM 2010 - Kingston
(Statistical) Dependence
Two events (and their respective probabilities) are said to be (statistically) dependent, if the probability of either of them happening DOES affect the probability of the other happening. Example
Consider any 1 supplier, A. Let P[A,1] be P[1st part picked is bad, and P[A,2] be P[2nd part picked is bad]. Then above events, and their respective probabilities are dependent.
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OR Probabilities
When two events can happen, we may want to know the probability of either one OR the other happening OR probability of events A & B is written P[A +B] or sometimes P[A or B] If events are mutually exclusive
P[A or B] = P[A] + P[B]
Parts from supplier A Parts from supplier B Parts from all suppliers (sample space)
From supplier A (sample space) Parts with wrong length Parts with wrong diameter Parts with wrong length AND wrong diameter
In straight sum, overlapping area Required probability is straight sum would be counted twice. So required of the 2 areas probability is straight sum of the 2 QM 2010 - Kingston minus the overlapping area. areas,
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8%
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Bayes Theorem
Useful in situations where you know the probability of an event (its prior probability) , but you need a revised probability (its posterior probability), given that some other event has occurred. Example
You know the probability of winning a contract. You would like to know what is the probability of winning, given that one of your competitors bid has been rejected.
Prior probability of Die 1 = 0.5, Die 2 also = 0.5 For better answer we form following table:
Die Choice P[Die Choice] Die 1 Die 2 0.5 0.5 P[Sixer|Die Choice] 0.4 0.7 P[Sixer from 1 OR 2] =
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Similarly, P[Die 2|Sixer] = 0.35/0.55 = 0.636 Conclusion: 1 toss result has allowed us to get better estimate of P[Die 1] (and Die 2). Application: Managers can make better decisions with Bayesian Decision theory using additional information.
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