Marine and Coastal Hazards from Kick em Jenny submarine volcano, southern Grenadine Islands

John B. Shepherd Seismic Research Unit The University of the West Indies St. Augustine Trinidad

Presentation to meeting of Venezuelan and associated seismologists, FUNVISIS, June 2000

Seismic Research Unit The University of the West Indies St. Augustine Trinidad Tel 868 662 4659 Fax 868 663 9293 e-mail sruuwi@tstt.net.tt

 Kick em Jenny is NOT erupting There are NO signs of unusual activity The most recent eruption was in 1990 We expect future eruptions but no eruption is imminent right now We are strengthening the monitoring system in order to be prepared for any renewal of activity
2000 June 10

Seismic Research Unit The University of the West Indies St. Augustine Trinidad Tel 868 662 4659 Fax 868 663 9293 e-mail sruuwi@tstt.net.tt

Where is Kick em Jenny?

First report on July 24 1939 said 5 miles distant from Sauteurs bearing 12 - 15 degrees magnetic from the Gunton Estate House First accurate survey from HMS Hecla in 1972 located the summit of the volcano at 12.30 degrees North, 61.63 degrees West

Seismic Research Unit The University of the West Indies St. Augustine Trinidad Tel 868 662 4659 Fax 868 663 9293 e-mail sruuwi@tstt.net.tt

More detailed location - from 1972 survey

Seismic Research Unit The University of the West Indies St. Augustine Trinidad Tel 868 662 4659 Fax 868 663 9293 e-mail sruuwi@tstt.net.tt

Known Eruptions since 1939

Date
1939 July 24

Phenomena
Subaerial euption Local earthquakes felt strongly Two eruption columns to 270 m above sea level Tsunami 1 meter in open water Submarine eruption. T phase recorded in Martinique. Submarine eruption T-phase recorded, Trinidad to Puerto Rico Earthquakes felt Grenada Submarine eruption T -phase recorded from Trinidad to Puerto Rico Minor tsunami Submarine eruption. T-phase throughout region continue to May 07 Submarine eruption 168 earthquakes recorded Felt strongly, Grenada T-phase throughout region Submarine eruption for 5 hours T-phase Subaerial eruption. Started 0600 GMT. Sea boiling turbulently and spouting steam T-phase Submarine eruption T-phase Submarine eruption Felt and heard in Grenada and Martinique T-Phase Subaerial eruption Water discolured and turbulent Felt strongle Grenada T-Phase

1943 October 10 1953 October 30

1965 October 30

1966 May 5 1966 August 3

1972 May 7 1974 June 9

1977 November 11 1988 December 29

1990 March 26

Seismic Research Unit The University of the West Indies St. Augustine Trinidad Tel 868 662 4659 Fax 868 663 9293 e-mail sruuwi@tstt.net.tt

Depth to summit
Date
1962 October 1966 June 1972 May 1976 May 1978 April 1981 October 1985 April 1989 April 1997 May

Ship
HMS Vidal HMS Lynx HMS Hecla RV Gillis RV Endeavor N.O. Noroit RV Conrad Submersible RV Malcolm Baldridge

Depth
232m 192 meters 190 meters 190 meters 160 meters 160 meters 160 meters 150 meters 177 meters*

Seismic Research Unit The University of the West Indies St. Augustine Trinidad Tel 868 662 4659 Fax 868 663 9293 e-mail sruuwi@tstt.net.tt

What are the hazards of Kick em Jenny?

1 Direct Hazards. The July 24 1939 explosions at Kickem Jenny propelled solid rocks of considerable size to a height of 900 feet above the surface of the sea. Any boats or ships within a radius of one kilometer or more of the volcano were at immediate risk. This situation could happen again at any time although we believe that there would be 12 - 24 hours warning at least. Other eruptions 1974 June 9 and 1990 March 26 also broke the surface of the sea. An eruption of this sort off the coast of Japan in 1952 sank a 500tonne research vessel with all hands Eventually the volcano will break the surface to form a new island. It will then present the full range of hazards to neighbouring islands. Fortunately the prevailing winds are from east to west at low level so most ash would be carried out into the Caribbean. The le de Ronde and nearby islands and possibly Sauteurs are within range of ballistic fragments 2 Indirect hazards The most significant indirect hazard is that a sea wave or tsunami could be generated by eruptions of Kick em Jenny. The 1939 eruption generated strong waves in Sauteurs. These waves were noticed as far away as Barbados. A major tsunami conceivably could affect the whole of the eastern Caribbean region as far south as Venezuela and as far north as the Virgin Islands. For this reason we have studied the possibility of tsunami generation by Kick em Jenny very carefully. First some facts about tsunamis in general.

Seismic Research Unit The University of the West Indies St. Augustine Trinidad Tel 868 662 4659 Fax 868 663 9293 e-mail sruuwi@tstt.net.tt

The word tsunami comes from two Japanese words which taken together mean harbour wave The word was chosen to avoid the older term tidal wave. Tsunamis have no connection with the tides True tsunamis consist of a series of waves, not a single pulse An essential feature that the wavelength - that is the distance between successive crests - is much longer than the depth of the ocean. Tsunamis travel with a velocity which depends on the ocean depth. The deeper the ocean, the faster they travel In the deep oceans the velocity is about 800 km/hr (500 miles/hr). This is about the speed with which a jet airliner travels. Far out at sea the height of the wave is only a meter or two, even for the biggest tsunamis. As they approach land, they feel the bottom of the sea which slows them down. At the same time, the height of the wave increases. A one-meter tsunami at sea may become a thirty-meter tsunami as it approaches land. Not all tsunamis break as they approach land. Only about one in five looks like the picture at the top of this slide. Often the first sign is a withdrawal of the sea. It then returns like a rapidly-rising tide. This may be repeated several times as successive crests arrive. The maximum height above sea level reached by a tsunami is called the runup. The area flooded is the inundation. Both of these quantities depend on near-shore bathymetry and topography so that both run up and inundation may vary rapidly along the shore line.
Seismic Research Unit The University of the West Indies St. Augustine Trinidad Tel 868 662 4659 Fax 868 663 9293 e-mail sruuwi@tstt.net.tt

Some terminology
Wavelength. This is the distance from one crest of the tsunami to the next. For genuine tsunamis the wavelength in deep water is very much greater than the depth of the ocean. The mean depth of the ocean is about 5 km so that the wavelength of typical tsunamis is greater than 50 km. At 800 km/hr there is at least 4 minutes - usually longer - between the arrival of one crest and the arrival of the next one Velocity - Far from land tsunamis travel at about 800 km/hour (500 miles/hour). They slow down considerably as they approach land Runup - far from land the amplitude of a tsunami may be only a few meters. As it approaches land the amplitude increases rapidly. The maximum height reached is called the runup

Inundation. This is the maximum distance inland from the normal coastline reached by the tsunami or alternatively the maximum area covered by water as a result of the tsunami

Seismic Research Unit The University of the West Indies St. Augustine Trinidad Tel 868 662 4659 Fax 868 663 9293 e-mail sruuwi@tstt.net.tt

Causes of tsunamis
A: Earthquakes
All earthquakes beneath or close to the sea disturb the sea surface, but not all of these disturbances are tsunamis. True tsunamis are generated only by earthquakes of magnitude greater than about 6.5 Tsunamis are generated only by shallow earthquakes (depth less than 50 km) Not all big earthquakes generate tsunamis.

B Volcanic activity
a Earthquakes accompanying eruptions b Pyroclastic flows impacting on water c Submarine explosions d Caldera collapse or subsidence e Avalanches of cold rock

f Base surges with accompanying shock waves

g Avalanches of hot material

h Air waves from explosions

i Lahars (mudflows) impacting on water j Lava avalanching into sea

C Landslides into the sea. D Impact of objects into the sea

Asteroids

Comets

meteorites

Seismic Research Unit The University of the West Indies St. Augustine Trinidad Tel 868 662 4659 Fax 868 663 9293 e-mail sruuwi@tstt.net.tt

Potentially tsunamigenic earthquakes

The diagram shows the locations of all earthquakes in the eastern Caribbean since the European settlement in about 1500 AD which were potentially tsunamigenic. By this is meant that they were of sufficiently high magnitude ( > 6.5) and sufficiently shallow depth (< 50 km). There are approximately 40 earthquakes in just under 500 years which satisfy these criteria. Of these 40 earthquakes only two are KNOWN to have generated significant tsunamis. Two others generated very local, small-scale tsunamis.

Seismic Research Unit The University of the West Indies St. Augustine Trinidad Tel 868 662 4659 Fax 868 663 9293 e-mail sruuwi@tstt.net.tt

Potential Tsunami sources 2 Volcanoes

Seismic Research Unit The University of the West Indies St. Augustine Trinidad Tel 868 662 4659 Fax 868 663 9293 e-mail sruuwi@tstt.net.tt

Spurious and exaggerated Caribbean tsunamis

Jamaica June 7 1692 - The Port Royal Earthquake
Often quoted as an example of tsunami damage

In fact the main damage at Port Royal was caused by collapse of unstable land The earthquake generated numerous landslides, some on sea floor many into sea
These land slides generated separate sea waves which some authors have mistaken for a single tsunami

Seismic Research Unit The University of the West Indies St. Augustine Trinidad Tel 868 662 4659 Fax 868 663 9293 e-mail sruuwi@tstt.net.tt

Ray paths near Kick em Jenny

Seismic Research Unit The University of the West Indies St. Augustine Trinidad Tel 868 662 4659 Fax 868 663 9293 e-mail sruuwi@tstt.net.tt

More distant ray paths

Seismic Research Unit The University of the West Indies St. Augustine Trinidad Tel 868 662 4659 Fax 868 663 9293 e-mail sruuwi@tstt.net.tt

Travel times - close by

Seismic Research Unit The University of the West Indies St. Augustine Trinidad Tel 868 662 4659 Fax 868 663 9293 e-mail sruuwi@tstt.net.tt

Travel times - Grenadines

Seismic Research Unit The University of the West Indies St. Augustine Trinidad Tel 868 662 4659 Fax 868 663 9293 e-mail sruuwi@tstt.net.tt

Travel times - Eastern Caribbean

Seismic Research Unit The University of the West Indies St. Augustine Trinidad Tel 868 662 4659 Fax 868 663 9293 e-mail sruuwi@tstt.net.tt

Predicted amplitudes (m) at selected locations

Location
Ile de Ronde Carriacou Northern Grenada Union Island Bequia Kingstown Trinidad (Maracas Bay) Trinidad (Port-of-Spain) Margarita Blanquilla Paria Peninsula

Worst Case
10 (38) 8.76 (19.4) 7 (29) 7.58 (16) 5.6(15) 4.54 (12) 4.24 (14) 1.55 (7) 1.97 (10.77) 1.15 (4.16) 2.18 (16.31)

High probability
1 (4) 0.93 (2) 0.9 (3) 0.81 (1.7) 0.59 (1.6) 0.5 (1.3) 0.45 (1.5) 0.16 (0.73) 0.21 (1.15) 0.12 (0.44) 0.46 (1.73)

Medium Probability
5 (15) 3.45(7.63) 4 (11) 3 (6.28) 2.2 (5.85) 1.8 (4.7) 1.67 (5.6) 0.61 (2.7) 0.78 (4.24) 0.45 (1.64) 1.71 (6.42)

High probability case corresponds to the 1939 eruption. Actual predicted amplitudes were observed at Ile de Ronde, northern Grenada (Sauteurs) and Barbados. In other locations the waves may not have been recognized as tsunami waves. Waves of this amplitude can be considered to be certain within the next few decades. Worst case scenario corresponds to the biggest eruption of this type of which Kick em Jenny is capable. Such an eruption is most unlikely. We recommend adoption of the medium probability scenario for planning. The probability of this scenario is about the same as that of a category 5 hurricane hitting Trinidad head on. The current depth of Kick em Jenny summit is too great to permit immediate explosive eruptions. Some effusive growth is required before the volcano moves back into the explosive range of depths.

Seismic Research Unit The University of the West Indies St. Augustine Trinidad Tel 868 662 4659 Fax 868 663 9293 e-mail sruuwi@tstt.net.tt

Planning for tsunamis

1 For most earthquake-generated tsunamis in the Caribbean distances traveled are mainly less than 200 km 2 This means that the time between earthquake occurrence and arrival of the tsunami is less than 30 minutes, and may be only one or two minute 3 Since earthquakes cannot be predicted, tsunamis cannot be predicted.

4 If there had been a tsunami-warning system in operation in the Caribbean for the past 500 years it would have issued a warning only once (1867) for earthquake-generated tsunamis. 5 The best preparation for earthquake-generated tsunamis is therefore Public education about effects of tsunamis Mapping of areas subject to tsunami inundation

6 Eruptions of Kick em Jenny CAN be predicted. The volcano needs time to build up to full eruption (at least 24 hours in 1939). 7 Therefore we can predict volcano-generated tsunamis by monitoring the volcano. 8 We can also map areas subject to tsunami inundation as for earthquakegenerated events. 5 and 7 and 8 are the main aims of our project

Seismic Research Unit The University of the West Indies St. Augustine Trinidad Tel 868 662 4659 Fax 868 663 9293 e-mail sruuwi@tstt.net.tt

Proposed Monitoring network

Seismic Research Unit The University of the West Indies St. Augustine Trinidad Tel 868 662 4659 Fax 868 663 9293 e-mail sruuwi@tstt.net.tt

Acoustic picture of Kick em Jenny taken in 1997

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