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and India
Ed Glaeser (joint work with J-P Chauvin and Kristina Tobio) Harvard University
Agglomeration economies may be even more important if cities are the conduits across continents and civilizations. Human capital externalities might be less important if skills matter more in the developed world or more if skills are needed to transfer knowledge from the developed world.
United States Lived in different county(3) but same state 5 years ago
9% 14% 7% 5%
India Lived in different locality but same state 5 years or more before Lived in different state five years or more before Lived in a different location at some point in their lives 3.6% 4.1% 3.9% 2.8%
-.5
.5
NOTE: Using data from the Indian Human Development Survey (2005) and the General Census (2001) Size of the circle denotes district density
30000 0 Average Median Income, 2000 Average Population Change 2 4 6 10 quantiles of popdens2000 8 10 -.05
50000
Table 4: City size (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Log house price Log house price (6) (7) (8) (9)
Dependent variable
Log wage
Log wage
IV population
IV geography
OLS
IV population
IV geography
0.08 [0.03]
0.04 [0.02]
0.16 [0.03]
0.06 [0.06]
0.39 [0.09]
-0.024 [0.019]
0.025 [0.054]
-0.09 [0.03]
1,591,1 1,521,5 1,590,4 2,343,0 2,220,2 2,333,00 1,591,14 1,521,59 1,590,46 40 99 67 54 49 2 0 9 7 0.22 0.40 0.20
Note: Individual-level data are from the Census Public Use Microdata Sample, as described in the Data Appendix. Real wage is controlled for with median house value, also from the Census as described in the Data Appendix. Individual controls include sex, age, and education. Population IV is from 1880. Geography IV includes latitude and longitude, January and July temperatures and precipitation.
0.160*** (0.0245)
Geographic (state) Controls Individual Age Controls Individual Education Controls Individual "Social Group" Controls Constant
Observations 10,605 10,605 R-squared 0.348 0.356 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 Note: Regression restricted to prime-age males Earnings = LN of annual wage and salary earnings (in rupees) "Social Groups" are defined as caste and/or religion
City-Skill Complementarity
Skilled People and Industries seem to select into larger cities/denser areas. This suggests a complementarity between cities and skills which is natural if cities enable the spread of ideas. This complementarity also shows up in the cross-effect on wages. And it shows up in steeper urban age earnings profiles and the migrants data.
10
NOTE: Using data from the Indian Human Development Survey (2005) and the General Census (2001)
Fitted values
Minneapo Charlott Atlanta-
West Pal Kansas C Indianap Richmond Louisvil PhoenixOmaha-Co San Dieg Columbus Albany-S Las Vega Nashvill St. Loui Grand Way Wichita, Fort Ra SaltHonolulu Lak Columbia Lancaste Greensbo Orlando, Dayton, Harrisbu Toledo, Allentow O Tulsa, Albuquer Tampa-St Syracuse Charlest Birmingh Rocheste ChicagoCanton-M Little R Pittsbur Spokane, Buffalo- Anto Baton Ro San Stockton Jackson, Knoxvill Youngsto Tucson, Oklahoma Memphis, Bakersfi Fresno, New Orle
Austin-R
San Fran
10
9.8
Figure 4
.05
.15
NOTE: Using data from the Indian Human Development Survey (2005) and the General Census (2001)
10
NOTE: Using data from the Indian Human Development Survey (2005) and the General Census (2001)
(1)
(2)
(3) Log Population Change 1981-1991 0.0797*** (0.0201) 0.0559*** (0.00910) -0.00215 (0.00160) 0.00193 (0.0299)
(4)
(5)
VARIABLES Number of Universities Number of Engineering Colleges Maximum Average Temperature (F) Log of Rainfall (Inches) Log Pop 1961 Log Pop 1971 Log Pop 1981 Log Pop 1991 Constant
1961-1971 -0.00504 (0.0195) 0.0697*** (0.00822) 0.00167 (0.00158) 0.00639 (0.0286) -0.134*** (0.0173)
1961-2001 0.131*** (0.0327) 0.138*** (0.0138) -0.00248 (0.00264) -0.0286 (0.0479) -0.558*** (0.0290)
-0.170*** (0.0179) -0.288*** (0.0195) -0.0956*** (0.0174) 1.525*** (0.252) 415 0.078
1.577*** (0.263)
2.330*** (0.270)
3.872*** (0.297)
Observations 392 393 401 R-squared 0.210 0.197 0.367 Standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 Sample is cities with population of 100,000 or more Number of universities and engineering colleges are continuous variables. Data from the 2001 Census of India
800000
Figure 13: PricesMedian Permits across and Housing Values in 2005 and Permits 2000-2005 Larger MetropolitanAcross MSAs Areas
San Jose San Francisco San Diego
Los Angeles
Providence Worcester Seattle FresnoMiami New Haven Chicago Portland Denver Baltimore Hartford CT Ann Arbor Minneapolis Sarasota Phoenix Bakersfield Philadelphia Colorado Springs Orlando Springfield Milwaukee Salt LakeTucson City Detroit Allentown Richmond Raleigh Tampa Jacksonville Atlanta Charleston Austin Columbus Charlotte Albany St. Louis KansasIndianapolis Boston Orleans Louisville Albuquerque Nashville Cleveland Grand Rapids City Cincinnati Akron Greensboro New Harrisburg Toledo Knoxville Omaha Dallas Dayton Tulsa Little Rock Houston Greenville MemphisColumbia Birmingham Rochester FortOklahoma Cleveland Little Pittsburgh Wichita Baton Rouge Scranton Wayne Buffalo Youngstown Mobile Rock City San Antonio Syracuse El Paso McAllen
0 0
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
.3