The Renewable Energy Solution

Houston Renewable Energy Group

The Consumer Voice for Renewable Energy Activities
Meet Quarterly Internet Yahoo Chat Group Annual Houston Solar Tour Earth Day Booths Educate Houston

www.txses.org/hreg
HREG written by Chris Boyer 2006

Non-profit, local section of the Texas Solar Energy Society (TXSES)

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US Energy Demand Growing

Total US Energy Consumption (Quads/yr) 160 140 120 Population
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6.E+08 5.E+08 4.E+08 3.E+08 2.E+08 1.E+08 0.E+00 2050

100 80 60 40 20 0 1950

Energy Consumption EIA Prediction PEW Low Case PEW High Case Population
1970 1990 2010 2030

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The Energy Problem

1. Rising cost of fossil fuel extraction 2. Trade deficit 3. War over finite resources 4. Pollution and climate change 5. Threat of nuclear proliferation and waste disposal
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World Annual Oil Consumption (Quad Btu/yr)

20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2100

1850

1900

1950

2000

2050

Cons tion Tot l Reserves

Cons tion - Model Unknown Reserves

redicted

Oil Reserves (Quad Btu)

25000

The enewables Solution

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Direct Solar Wind Hydro Biomass Geothermal

Its Plentiful Its Everywhere It lasts forever Its Healthy Its Safe
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All the energy we use could be supplied by Renewables!

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Solar Energy
80,000 Terawatts of Solar Power fall on the Earth constantly, compared to 14.5 Terawatts current used for human power. Solar Electricity Photovolatics (PV) Solar Thermal Heating
Hot water residential and commercial Utility Steam & Electricity Cooking

Solar Building Design

Shade & venting Solar heating
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Solar Thermal

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Solar Thermal: Hot Water

Hot Water roof systems subsidize hot water. $500 to $6,000 for system Last ~20 years 1 to 2 ft2 of panel for each gallon used per day. 4 yr payback If hot water use does not match solar availability, economics is not so attractive. Panels Controller

Pump Tank

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Solar Thermal: Utility Electricity

$1million/MWp Capital Investment 20-60% Capacity Factor (100% with N.G. Hybrid) 5000 acres for a 1 GW plant

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Solar Photo oltaic

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Solar PV Integrated into Structures

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Solar PV: Grid Connected

$6000 to $10,000 per kWp Power Installed
50% Modules 25% Inverter 25% Installation
Electric grid PV array

$1 to $0.18/kWh
Sun Hours/day Interest Rate Incentives

Voltage (DC) Inverter

Voltage (AC)

1 kW ~ 100 ft2 @ noon

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Goal is $3000/kWp installed, or ~$0.10/kWh by 2025

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Ad ancing Solar PV Technology

New Materials Silicon
Crystalline Polycrystalline Amorphous Ribbon Nanocrystalline

New Structures

CdTe GaAs CIS/CIGS Dye-Sensitized Organic

Wafer P-N Junction Thin Film P-N Junction Multi-Junction Quantum Dots Photoelectrochemical
Related Technologies -digital camera -LEDs -Solid state lasers
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P-N Junction Solar Cell Structure

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Photochemical Cell Structure

Structure for high-efficiency (50%) organic PV cell based on a nanostructured substrate onto which thin layers of molecular multi-junctions are grown and anchored onto the nanostructure surface. The red circle denotes an electron acceptor; the blue square, an electron donor; and the yellow circle, a metal nanoparticle.

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PV cost as a function of Efficiency

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Impro ements in Cell Efficiency

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Solar PV: What & Where

M W /yr 0 S i S ing le C rys tal S i P o lyc rys tal Si i on S i m o r ho us S i m o r/C rys tal Cd e C S 200 400 600 486 991 5 71. 122 2 5 800 1000 1200

0 Consumer Products Comm. & Signal Off-Grid es&Com 75

200

400

W/yr 600

800

1000 2000 2005

1200

95 195

Grid Connected Central Utility

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1100 60
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Solar PV: Who

C e ll 0 S h a rp (J)
(E er-Q)

r 200

ti

, M 300

/ r i 400 500

100

Q -C e lls (E ) K y o c e ra (J) S a n y o (J)

M it s u b is h i (J) S c h o t t S o la r (E ) B P S o la r (U S , E ) S u n Te c h (C h ) M o t e c h (Tw ) S h e ll S o la r (U S , E ) Is o fo t o n (E ) D e u t s c h e C e ll (E ) E -t o n (Tw ) P h o t o w a t t (E ) S u n p o w e r (P h ) O t h e rs (< 2 0 M W )

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Learning Cur e for PV Production

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Potential US Solar PV Growth

Prediction based on 20 to 25% annual growth.
Cumulative Installed Capacity (GW)

Note: Capacity factor is 0.2

Cell Production, GW/yr

2 1.5 1 0.5 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Actual World Growth 44%

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Wind Energy
60 GW Installed in the world by 2005 Growing 20%/yr worldwide $1million/MW Cost Capacity factor 0.47 Clean; no water needed Dual Land Use 1000 GW possible in the US Each tower is 1 to 3 MW.
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Tale of 2 GW
Nuclear i

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Too Many Wind Towers?

One coal plant equals about 1500 Wind towers. Over a Million oil and gas wells were drilled in Texas at a cost of ~ $1 Million each. The same as the price of a wind tower. A Million Wind Towers would equal over 600 coal fired plants. There are ~50 coal plants in Texas
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Wind: Who & Where

M rket Sh re

Share of Cumulative Installations

40

Company 0
Vest s es nercon Wind Sie ens S zlon R Mits ower ishi ordex thers
2 2 2 4 4 3 6

10

20

30

Country
Germany S ain US enmar India Italy Netherlands Japan U China Others

10

20

30

40 34.7

17 15 11

17.2 14.1 6.4 6.3 2.6 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.6 10.8

cotecni

Data from year 2004: BTM World Market Update

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Potential US Wind Growth

Cumulative Installed Wind Capacity (GW)

Actual Current Trend Aggressive Growth EIA Prediction NREL Goal

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Biomass Energy
Sources:
Energy crops Crop residue Animal manure Municipal Solid Waste Forrest waste

1/2 the energy/lb of coal. 10 Quads/yr available in US Crop considerations:

water usage fertilizer requirements soil depletion.

Corn is bad Switchgrass is good

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Biomass Energy Pathways

Direct Combustion BEST!
1. Solids p Heat 2. Solids p Combined Heat & Power (CHP)

Direct E traction

POO

3. Oils & fats p Esterification p Biodiesel 4. Certain plants p Solvent Extraction p Isoprenoid hydrocarbons

Biochemical

POO

5. Plant matter p Hydrolysis p Fermentation p Ethanol 6. Organic sludge p Anerobic digestion p Biogas p CHP or H2

Thermochemical

FAI

7. Organic matter p Pyrolysis p biogas or bio-oil 8. Organic matter pGasification p Syngas p CHP, FT Liquids, MeOH/DME, EtOH, or H2
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Ethanol
US produced 3.4 billion gallons in 2005. 85 US Companies, most sized at 20-60 million gal/yr, ADM has over a billion gal/yr capacity. Brazil made 4.2 billion gal in 05. China & Europe made 1 billion gal in 05 Produces a fuel compatible with existing infrastructure
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Energy Return is ~4 out : 3 in. Solar land efficiency of ethanol is very low at < 0.1%. Competes for water and land use.
100000 10000 1000 100 10 1980

6.5 Billion allons, or 5% of asoline

Million

allons

12 Billion allon, land limit. ~10%

1990

2000

2010

2020

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Hydro Energy
Cheapest source of Electricity $0.02/kWh 200 GW in US by 2005 US developed about 40% of potential; inhibited by environmental concerns. Capacity factor 0.5

Hoover Dam

Tidal

Wave
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Hydro Production Cycles in US

350 (TWh/yr Hydr Ge erati

300

250

200

El Nino cycles
150 1980 1987 1994 2001 2008

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Geothermal Energy
Free heat Environmental concerns Nonsustainable ground cools.

The Earths core is hot from decay of nuclear materials.

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US Energy Flows 2002 (Quad)

56.2 Wasted

35.2 Used
Source: LLNL, EIA-DOE HREG

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The enewable Energy Solution

US Practical Potential for RE energy by 2025 to 2050 with existing technology. Source Solar Wind Biomass Hydro Geothermal GWp 2000 1000 336 300 100 Cap.Fact. Quads of Work/yr 0.2 10.7 0.47 12.6 0.25 (effic.) 2.3 0.5 4.0 0.8 2.1 TOTAL 31.7

RE can cover 90% of the 35 Quads of Work used today.

Note: 1 Quad of Fossil Fuel is ~0.3 to 0.1 Quad of useful work. 1 Quad of Renewable Electricity is 0.9 Quad of useful work.
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Other Energy Solutions

Unconventional Oil
Tar sands Shale Oil
Polluted water Polluted air Habitat destruction Climate change Limited Resources Compete for water Easy terrorist targets Monopolized markets Waste of capital Expensive energy

Stranded Natural Gas Coal Nuclear

The Future alue of Such Investments is NEGATIVE!

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Pathway to Sustainable Energy

Phase I Achieved! 1975-2005
Economical Renewable Energy Solutions Realized Incubation of the RE industry.

Phase II Achievable by 2025-2050

Up to 25% of electric load can be supported by renewables without energy storage. Shift transportation from oil to electric. Technology improvements lower RE cost.

Phase III Achievable by 2050-2100

Incorporate energy storage to achieve 100% R.E. Disruptive renewable energy inventions bring costs lower
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Action Items For NOW

Practice Energy Conservation Switch to a Green Electric Provider. Buy Electric Vehicles and Biofuels Make investments in Solar and Wind projects/ companies. Vote for politicians with platforms promoting Sustainability Inform the public about the wind and solar energy solution.
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