The Caged Phoenix

by KK Sharma
 The Paradox
How is that the Indians are so
fastidiously clean but India is
so dirty??

Do we belong to cat family?

 The history of Phoenix
• Egyptian mythology, a mythical sacred firebird.
• Said to live for 500, 1461 or for 12594 years (depending on the source),
• A male bird with beautiful gold and red plumage.
• End of its life-cycle builds itself a nest of cinnamon twigs and ignites;
both nest and bird burn fiercely and are reduced to ashes, from which a
new, young phoenix arises.
• The new phoenix embalms the ashes of the old phoenix in an egg made
of myrrh and deposits it in Heliopolis ("the city of the sun"), Egypt.
• The bird was also said to regenerate when hurt or wounded by a foe,
thus being almost immortal and invincible - a symbol of fire and divinity.
 Preview
• The caging parameters
• Rise and fall of phoenix
• Connection between rich and the poor
• The facts
• Consensus politics
• How to make the phoenix fly again
• Challenges
• The surge effect
• India of tomorrow – flying again!!!!
 The caging parameters
• Missing connection between rich and the poor
• Gap between Intellectual capital and merchant capital
• From vibrant village to patronage afflictions
• The political class and leadership
• Poor state of the State in social sector…..
• State of education – Taxila/Patliputra to AICTE/PTU
• Weakening institutions – Legislature, judiciary and
executive
• Thriving parallel economy
• Hemmed in nation – unable to break out of S Asia.
• Caste parameters
• Suspicious and frustrated citizens
• Raging wars within
 Rise and Fall of Phoenix
citizens’ confidence in nation-state
The total outlay of the 1st five year plan was worth Rs.2,069 crores
80 FOUNDATIONS

70

Post 1971 war

60
50

Internal Conflicts
40

Restraining forces
30

India shining
20
Post 1962 war

10

Eco crisis
0
1947 1955 1964 1972 1975 1985 1990 1995 2007 2010 2015
 Rise and Fall of Phoenix
citizens’ confidence in nation-state
The total outlay of the 11th five year plan was worth Rs. 36,44,718 crore (1761.6 times)
90 FOUNDATIONS

80

Post 1971 war

70
60

Enabling forces
50

Internal Conflicts
40

India shining
30
20
Post 1962 war

10

Eco crisis
0
1947 1955 1964 1972 1975 1985 1990 1995 2007 2010 2015
 The restraining forces
• Social disparities
• Neglected social sector and poor implementation
• Lack of inclusive growth
• Corruption
• Regional and intra state developmental imbalances
• Lack of discipline and civic sense
• Political rot and absence of leadership
• Patronage and crony politics
• Mobocracy vs meritocracy.
 Connecting the rich to the poor
• Interlinked contraries – slums and skyscrapers
• Vote and forget public
• 5 lakh villages, Mandal surveyed only 810.
810
• Patornising western ethnocentrism
• For a sociology and not culturology of India.
• Caste polity in villages – rule of high priests
• Agriculture and farmer
 Agricultural Subsidy (US $)
• India – 66
• Japan – 26,000
• USA – 21,000
• OECD countries – 11,000
 Some facts
• 30% urban population; 70% semi rural and rural.
• 500,000 villages in 628 districts, 28 states plus 7 UTs.
• 72,000 slums
• 15% population in slums
• 160,000 students go abroad to study – US $10 b to 12 b.
• Tax payers – 3 cr; population 112 cr.
• 83 cr (77%) earn less than Rs 100 per day…
• Intolerant mobs – ever increasing public property damage
• 8 Lakhs under trials; 2 lakhs convicts in jails.
• With spending capacity of Rs150 pd - you are in the middle class.
 Some facts
• Vocational training of work force – India 5%, Germany 70%, Japan 80%,
S Korea 95%.
• Engineers – 112,000 per annum against US – 137,000.
• Cellphones – 220 millions, China - 470 million.
• 6 million households (total 177 m – 3.7%) own cars and jeeps. 4.5 million
US citizens below poverty line own cars, 290,000 more than two. In US
237.4 million registered cars.
• Thailand – 27 cars per 1000, Malaysia - 147; India - 7.
• Car productions:
– GM – 5.7 million in 2006.
– Toyota – 6.8 m
– Ford – 3.4 m
– Tata – 0.19 million
– Maruti – 0.744 m
– M&M – 0.14 m.
 Consensus of politics
• Acceptance of Mandal Commission.
• Parliamentary privileges, retirement benefits, travel and upkeep
allowances
• Hostility towards judiciary.
• Against the eradication of undemocratic laws that curtail civil
liberties.
• Supporting establishment of SEZ.
• Allowing NPAs.
• No initiative on judicial or police reforms.
• Lip service on higher education and collapsing public education
system.
• No reforms in election funding and defection.
• Allowing bicameral assemblies in some states.
• Allowing criminals into politics.
• Lack of willingness to prosecute political or communal murderers.
 The Hindu Concept of Dirt
• How is that the Indians are so fastidiously clean but India is so dirty??
• Forbes study – ranks India as a dirt capital of the world.
• Mumbai and Delhi – among 25 dirtiest capital cities.
• No correlation of poverty with filth.
• Washington, London or Paris were same in 1800s…
• Concept of anything that touches the ground – is dirty.
• Historical mystery of god-men
• Indian Holy Cow.
• Goddess to sati to female feticide…
 Making the Phoenix Fly
• Fundamental rethink of fundamentals.

• Multi-tiered approach, rejection of cultural otherness.

• Task of intellectual – to expose and criticise and not rejoice or gloat.

• Un-organised sector – 92% of the employees.

• Infrastructure and development.

• Work ethics, discipline, eradication of corruption…..

• Look at China and Chinese products – in every corner of the world.

• Improved efficiency and productiveness to reach that level.

 Challenges
• Education – meaningful and universal
• Health and sanitation
• Corruption
• Democracy at grass root level
• Development as agenda for the nation
• Infrastructure as agenda for the government
• Good governance
• HDI
• GDP
• World power
Sensex Movement – one year
Sensex Movement – 5 years
 60 years to $1 tn; 10 to $3 tn
3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

1947 2000 2009 2020

Business Today 27 Dec 2009

Doubling of per capita income
GDP Growth Per-capita Years to double
GDP Growth per capita GDP

1972-82 3.5 1.2 57

1982-92 5.2 3.0 23
1992-02 6.0 3.9 18
2002-09 8.4 5.9 12
2010-20 8.5+(?) 6.5 (?) 6 (?)
 Percentage share in GDP
Services Industry Agro and
allied
activities
2000-01 57 20 23

2008-09 63 20 17

2019-20 71 17 12
 Savings and consumption
Savings Private Invest- Govt Net
as %ge of consu- ment Consu- exports
income mption mption

1959-60 10.8
1969-70 14
1979-80 19.8
1989-90 21.8 93-98 55 34 12 -8
1999-2000 24.8 98-03 58 27 12 14
2007-08 37.9 03-08 46 57 6 -15
 Demographic Dividends
Share of working population
68
66
64
62
India
60
China
58
G6
56
54
52
50
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
 The enabling forces
• Demography from a burden to strength
• 1991 – IMF advised us and arm-twisted
• 2009 – RBI and GOI advised IMF.
• World economy Jul-Sep – negative growth, India – 7.9%.
• From being market driven companies to driving the markets (KM Birla).
• Trade as %ge of GDP by 2009 – 40%.
• Share in new jobs in the world economy during 2005-20 – 30%, (China
– 14% and US – 3%).
• Social spending – 1992 (8,500cr to 1,00,000 cr in 2010)
 Signs that the Phoenix will fly
• Social orientation through inclusive growth plans.
• No terrorist strike after 26/11.
• Global Inc. recognises the potential.
• Seat on all high tables – G8, G77, COP15, ASEAN, ARF, IORC, P5,
Eco Summits….
• BASIC or BRIC lead.
• Indian multi-nationals.
• Ring of fire getting roasted in own fire.
• Extremely high confidence level…
• Twitter and young politicians – change..
• Initiative by civil society.
• Blaring media…nasty but useful.
• Increasing transparency
 Flat World
• The business world has been flattened by globalization, changing
demographics, ubiquity of technology, and regulatory compliance.
Conducting business in this level playing field requires a change in
mindset, strategies and operations.
• To harness the opportunities of the Flat World, companies must
address four shifts –
– Optimize Cost to Fuel Growth
– Think Faster Innovation
– Think Money from Information
– Think Winning in the Turns.
 Infosys – Tomorrow’s Global Company
• The survival and success of tomorrow’s global
company is bound integrally to the health of a
complex global system composed of three
interdependent sub-systems – the natural
environment, the social and political system,
and the global economy. Global companies
play a role in all three and they require all three
to flourish.