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Population (in Billions
1
0
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Year (AD)
(Super)exponential growth
Some observations...
Pre-19th century growth rates were
~0.2%/yr
<1 billion people.
Pop. doubled in 300yr.
140 million died of plague: 6th, 14th, and
17th centuries.
Replaced in a few centuries.
population
time
Factors affecting Growth Rate
Growth rate = Birth Rate - Death Rate
1.3% = 2.2% - 0.9% (today)
Example:
– Current growth rate is 1.3%, so doubling time is
70/1.3 = 54 years (ca. 2060).
– Projected pop at 2060 would be ~13 billion
– But this won’t be the case… why?
Carrying Capacity
At the heart of this issue is the concept of
Carrying Capacity (K)
– the maximum number of individuals that the
environmental resources of a given region can
support.
Population growth and Carrying Capacity co-
evolve.
– Factors: Technology, social, political, economic
institutions, physical & ecological environment.
Carrying Capacity
Physical carrying capacity = “packing density”,
limited only by space and resources
QuickTimeª and a
Age decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
QuickTimeª and a
TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
http://tools.google.com/gapminder
Four questions of the
UN Population database
1. Developed vs. developing world
2. Demographic transitions (1960-2003)
3. Health or Wealth first for prosperity?
4. Demographic impact of HIV-AIDS
Fertility and life expectancy
QuickTimeª and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
What should this graph look like
for the world in 1950 ?
A. Positive slope
Life expectancy
B. Negative slope QuickTimeª and a
decompressor
C. No significant trend
are needed to see this picture.
Fertility
What does this graph
look like today ?
Developed
A. Two equal clusters
B. Two clusters, developing
Life expectancy
Developing
is larger
C. Two clusters, developed QuickTimeª and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
is larger
D. Two clusters, developed
is much larger
E. No trend
Fertility
Demographic Impact of HIV/AIDS