CSME

Integration Possibilities
- An Oil and Gas Perspective

T. M. Boopsingh

Sherbourne
Conference Centre
Barbados, 29th June 2006
 Outline

 International Energy Overview

- Geographic, Economic and Global Realities

 A Brief Review of Inputs - Geograph

and Regional Overview
- The Trinidad and Tobago Downstream industry
- A Regional demand Analysis

 The Way Forward – Regional & National Issues

- The Opportunities
International Energy Overview

Section 1
 International Perspectives
- The Region in the World

 Western Energy Security

 World Economic Growth
China & India make the new difference
 Saudi vs Iraqi Resources
 US vs European/Japanese Interests
 Russian Oil and now GAS
 Other US Needs, Interests & Inputs
Imports, Transportation, Sales, Technology
The Caribbean’s Energy Needs

 Bulk vs Supplemental

 Urban vs Rural

 Primary vs Secondary Energy

 Electricity vs Transportation

 Medium term vs Long term

 World Energy Growth
Annual growth in world energy consumption
mtoe p.a. World excl China China
500

400

300

200

100

-100

-200
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005 © BP 2005
World Energy Demand to 2025
700 10
600
8

Population Total,
Quadrillion BTU

Billion Persons
Consumption,

500
Total Energy

400 6

300 4
200
2
100
0 0
1980 2000 2005 2015 2025

Total Energy Population

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2004;

EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004
 Projected Contributions from "New" Renewable Energy
Sources in 2020
ETW "Minimum" ETW "Maximum" Mtoe
% of total Mtoe % of total
Modern biomass 243 45 561 42

Solar 109 20 355 26

Other (wind,
geothermal,
small hydro, waste) 187 35 429 32
Total 539 100 1345 100
% of Total Primary
Energy Consumption 3-4 8 -12
Source: WEC’s ETW 2000.
NB. In 1990 new renewables contributed 164 Mtoe (1.9% to total energy demand).
The Coming Age of Natural Gas

 Infrastructure issues

 Gas Hydrates

 Fuel Cells
Sources of Production
for the Caribbean

Sections 2a & 2b
 The Sources of Energy
- Geographically
 US Gulf Coast
 Venezuela*
 Trinidad and Tobago# - CSME member
 Colombia
 Mexico*
 West Africa#
 Other, inc. Brazil, Ecuador, Middle East, etc.
* Oil Exporter # Oil & Gas Exporter
 Oil, Products & LN

Oil & Petroleum Products

T&T - Existing Gas Based Plants
 1 Natural Gas Liquids Processing Facility
 4 LNG Trains (2300 MMscfd)
 9 Ammonia Plants (4,485 MTPA)
 1 Urea Plant (550 MTPA)
 5 Methanol Plants (2,960 MTPA)
 4 Iron and Steel Mills (2,560 MTPA)
 4 Power Generation Plants - Powergen (3) & Inncogen
 1 Offshore Platform Fabrication Yard
 Other
 Refinery
 Cement Manufacture
 Light Industrial/Commercial Consumers - 96
 2 Gas Fired Air Cooling Projects
 4000 CNG powered vehicles
s Chemicals
als usage
1997
550
100
1998
600
110
T&T Natural Gas Sales
1999
640
130
2000
660
150
2001
660
155
2002
700
160
2003
700
160
2004
950
160
2005
1050
180
2006
1200
200
ctricity 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260
G 4000 0 0 210 420 450 475 4 LNG Trains
900 1400 1500 2300

4000 Natural Gas Sales : 1997-2006

3500
3000
MMSCFD

3000 2000

1000
2500
MMSCFD

0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
2000 LNG Gas Chemicals Metals usage Electricity

1500

1000

500

0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Liquefying Natural Gas
TT / Venezuelan Cross-Border Drilling
 Pricing Natural Gas in T&T

 Net back Pricing based on Product sales prices

– LNG, Methanol, Ammonia,
 Alternate Fuel Pricing e.g. Fuel Oil/Crude Oil

 Net back Pricing based on Product sales prices

- Steel; Aluminium ?

 Domestic Pricing - TTEC, Small Manufacturers.

 Proposed New Plants in Trinidad

 Alutrint Aluminium Smelter

 Aluminium Wire, Rods, Wheels, Parts
 AnsaMcal/Terra UAN Ammonia complex
 Clico Energy et. al. UAM Ammonia complex
 Eastern Caribbean Gas Pipeline
 Alcoa Smelter
 New Refinery at Pointe-a-Pierre
 Westlake Ethylene Complex, etc,
A Demand Analysis
in the Caribbean

Section 2c
Role of Indigenous Resources in Meeting Energy
Demand - 2000

Country/Item Hydro in Power Oil/Gas Production in

Generation % Petroleum Demand %
Suriname 74 82
Dominica 50 -
Haiti 47 -
St. Vincent 32 -
Dominican Rep. 8 -
Jamaica 2 -
Cuba 1 31 (55% by 2004)
Barbados - 19
Trinidad & - 190
Tobago Source: T.A. Byer
 Petroleum Product Demand in 2000 (BBls/Day)
– North Caribbean Markets

Product/ Gasoline Distillat RFO Total Of which

Country e Power-%
Cuba 10,800 43,800 93,100 160,500 37

Jamaica 11,500 10,900 40,150 65,600 41

Haiti 2,400 6,950 310 10,330 13

Dom. 27,270 52,600 24,800 125,060 31

Rep.
Puerto 62,950 24,250 60,000 170,000 45
Rico
Source: T.A. Byer
 Petroleum Product Demand in 2000 (BBls/day)
– Eastern Caribbean Markets

Product/ Gasoline Distillate RFO Total Of which

Country Power-%
Guadeloupe 3,150 4,800 3,200 12,400 31
Dominica 300 200 20 600 25

Martinique 2,750 5,700 4,050 13,400 33

St. Lucia 850 1,950 20 2,950 40

St. Vincent 450 650 - 1,200 23

Barbados 1,900 5,750 2,700 10,800 31
Grenada 540 710 - 1,460 30

Source: T.A. Byer

 Conclusions of Macro-Economic
& Petroleum Demand Analysis

 Power Sector is the prime activity for

displacing liquid fuels – represented by few
corporate entities which facilitates
implementation

 Transport sector fuels – gasoline, Avjet

and diesel oil – substitution more
difficult.
Source: T.A. Byer
The Eastern Caribbean Pipeline
 Final System Layout
Technical Considerations

Northern
 Larger markets and less risky
service via Eastern segment to
Barbados

 Western segment’s small diameter

Central
(5”) facilitates minimizing impact of
geo-technical hazards in servicing
Grenada and St Vincent. Not
Commercial.

Western
 Interconnect point in Martinique to
re-distribute to Central &
Eastern
Northern systems
 Access to Fort de France markets

 More difficult subsea terrain

characterizes Northern route to
Guadeloupe and Dominica
 T&T – Its Role in the Hemisphere

 US LNG Imports

 Largest world Ammonia and Methanol exporter

 Deep Water Prospects

 U.S. LNG Imports
BCFD
20

18

16

14

12

10
Projected Range of Imports
8

0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Cambridge Energy Research Associates
“New Realities, New Risks: North American Gas and Power Scenarios Through 2020”
       

 
       

       

       

       

       
                                                                                                           
       

Slide 21 of 31
 T&T - Its Role in the Region

 US LNG Imports

 US Ammonia & Methanol Imports

 Deep Water Prospects

 Location re Venezuela

 Caribbean Refining Center

 Small and Strategically positioned

Regional Structures and Issues

Section 3
 The Way Forward
 Long Term – 1. Solar inc. Photo Voltaic
2. Other inc. Conservation, Energy
Security, Diversification
Private Capital - The key to prioritization
 Medium Term – Natural Gas & Bio-fuels
a) Eastern Caribbean Pipeline
b) LNG for Northern Caribbean

 Domestic Demand Management

inc.Price Differentiation, Supply Diversification, Affordability,
Trade Cooperation, Conservation
 Regional and National Structures

 REAP – a critical Institutional product

 Cooperating within the ACS
 Using Market related pricing
 Partnering J/V’s and/with IOC’s
 Facilitate Refining, Shipping & Trading
 Establish credible Regulatory Agencies
New downstream potential

 Steel and Steel products

 Aluminium and its products
 Gas based Petroleum Products
 Natural Gas in Cooling
 CNG in land transportation
 Ethylene based Plastics
 New Trading potential

 Alumina and Aluminium products

 Forest and wood products
 New Petroleum Products
 Fertilisers and by-products
 Plastics
 THE END

Oh to be like this!

Thank Thank you for your attention.

ur attention.