Breaking Out of the

Budget Bubble
Barb Rosewicz, Project Director, Fiscal 50

March 5, 2021
 50 States: Sources of State Government Revenue
FY 2018

Other
8 %

Service
charges 11 %
49 %
Taxes

Federal
grants 32 %

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 Change in State Tax Revenue from Great Recession
Peak, Adjusted for Inflation
50-state total, Q2 2020

20%

15%

10%
9.6%
5%

0%

-5%

-10% -12.5%
RECESSION
RECESSION
-15%
... 2006 ... ... 2009
... ... 2008
... ... 2007 ... ... 2010 ... ... 2012
... ... 2011 ... ...2014
... ... 2013 ... ...2015
... ...2016
... ...2017 . ... .2019
... ..2018 .. ... 2020
...
/1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/
4 10 4 10 4 10 4 10 4 10 4 10 4 10 4 10 4 10 4 10 4 10 4 10 4 10 4 10 4
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 Change in State Tax Revenue from Great Recession
Peak, Adjusted for Inflation
Nevada and 50-state total, Q2 2020

35%

30%

25%
22.4%
20%

15%

10%
9.6%
5%

0%

-5%

-10%
RECESSION RECESSION
-15%
6 2006
6 7 20077 8 20088 9 20099 0 20100 1 20111 2 20122 3 20133 42014 4 52015 5 62016 6 72017 7 82018 8 2019
9 9 2020 0
200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 202
1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ /1/ /1/ /total 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/
4/ 10/ 4/ 10/ 4/ 10/ 4/ 10/ 4/ 10/ 4/ 1050-state 4 10 4/ 10/ 4/ 1Nevada
0 4 10 4 10 4 10 4 10 4 10 4

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 Change in State Tax Revenue from Great Recession
Peak, Adjusted for Inflation
Nevada, South Carolina, and 50-state total, Q2 2020

40%

30%

22.4%
20%

9.6%
10%

0% 6.4%

-10%

-20%
RECESSION RECESSION
-30%
2006
06 006 007 2007
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
07 008 008 009 009 010 010 011 011 012 012 013 013 014 014 015 015 016 016 017 017 018 018 019 019 020
0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2
1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ /1/ /1/total /1 /1 /1 /1Nevada
/1 /1 /1 /1 South /1 /1 /1 /1 /1 /1 /1 /1
/1 /1Carolina
4/ 10/ 4/ 10/ 4/ 10/ 4/ 10/ 4/ 50-state10 4 10 4 10 4 10 4 10 4 10 4 10 4 10 4 10 4 10 4
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 Days States Could Run on Rainy Day Funds Alone
50-state median, FY 2000-20

Days
35
30.0
30

25

20 17.3

15

10

5
RECESSION RECESSION RECESSION

0 FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

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 Days States Could Run on Rainy Day Funds Alone
Michigan and 50-state median, FY 2000-20

Days
50
RECESSION RECESSION RECESSION

40
32.7

30
30.0
20

10

-10
FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
50-State Median Michigan

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 Days States Could Run on Rainy Day Funds Alone
Michigan, New Jersey, and 50-state median, FY 2000-20

Days
50
RECESSION RECESSION RECESSION

40
32.7

30
30.0
20

10
0.0
0

-10
FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
50-State Median New Jersey Michigan

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 Days States Could Run on Rainy Day Funds Alone
FY 2020
100

90

80 0 to 29.9

70 30.0 to 100

60 More than 100

50

40

30

20

10

0
NJ
IL
HI
PA
KS
RI
KY
OK
NY
AR
WI
FL
MT
VA
NC
IN
DE
LA
MD
NH
ME
WA
MO
TN
OH
MEDIAN
AZ
MS
MI
NV
NE
UT
GA
IA
ID
AL
SD
MA
OR
CA
MN
CO
SC
VT
CT
TX
WV
NM
AK
ND
WY
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 Fiscal 50: State Trends and Analysis
Key Indicators of Fiscal Health

Tax Revenue State Medicaid Employment to Debt and Unfunded Reserves and
Reserves and
Spending Population Ratio Retirement Costs Balances
Balances
Tax Revenue Volatility
Fiscal Balance
State Personal
Federal Share of
Income
State Revenue

Population

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