OCTA RESEARCH COVID-

19 MONITORING REPORT
NOVEMBER 16, 2020
DISCLAIMER
 The OCTA team is an independent and interdisciplinary research
group composed primarily of UP faculty members and alumni. This
independent research team also includes contributors from the
University of Santo Tomas and Providence College, USA.
 The findings and recommendations in the report are those of the
authors and do not reflect the official position of the University of
the Philippines, University of Santo Tomas, Providence College, or
any of its units.
 The COVID-19 Pandemic in the PHILIPPINES
(November 16, 2020)

Total Cases: 409,574

Active Cases: 27,369 (7%)
Recovered Cases: 374,366 (91%)
Deaths: 7,839 (2%)
ACTIVE CASES IN THE
PHILIPPINES
PHILIPPINES DAILY NEW
CASES BY CASE REPORTS
(DOH DATA) Philippines Cases Per Day

2336
1967 1864
1780
1589

Oct 13 - 19 Oct 20 -26 Oct 27 - Nov 2 Nov 3 - 9 Nov 10 - 16

PHILIPPINES REPRODUCTION
NUMBER RT
Philippines Reproduction Number Rt

0.87 0.87

0.84

0.81 0.81

Oct 12 - 18 Oct 19 - 25 Oct 26 - Nov 1 Nov 2 - 8 Nov 9 - 15

THE NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
(NCR) DAILY NEW CASES BY CASE
REPORTS
NCR New Cases Per Day

798

563
486 506
422

Oct 11 - 17 Oct 18 -24 Oct 25 - 31 Nov 1 - 7 Nov 8 - 14

REPRODUCTION NUMBER RT
IN NCR
NCR Reproduction Number Rt

0.82

0.76

0.71 0.71 0.71

Oct 12 - 18 Oct 19 - 25 Oct 26 - Nov 1 Nov 2 - 8 Nov 9 - 15

POSITIVITY RATE IN NCR*
NCR Positivity Rate

6% 6%
6%
5%
4%

Oct 12 - 18 Oct 19 - 25 Oct 26 - Nov 1 Nov 2 - 8 Nov 9 - 15

*WHO recommends positivity rate of less than 5%.

HOSPITAL OCCUPANCY IN
NCR
HOSPITAL OCCUPANCY FOR TOTAL COVID-19 BEDS REMAINS
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE LGUS IN THE
NCR
HOSPITAL OCCUPANCY FOR TOTAL ICU COVID-19 BEDS
REMAINS BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE LGUS
IN THE NCR
REGIONS WITH THE HIGHEST
NUMBER OF NEW CASES PER DAY*
Region Nov 9 – 15 Nov 2 – 8
1 NCR 387 (25%) 515
2 Region IV-A: Calabarzon 318 (10%) 354
3 Region III: Central Luzon 145 (28%) 200
4 Region XI: Davao 139 (4%) 144
5 Region VI: Western Visayas 103 (18%) 126

*Based on DOH case reports from Nov 9 to 15 and Nov 2 to 8. Numbers marked blue showed a
decrease in new cases. The percentage shows the percent change in increase.
REGIONS AND PROVINCES
WITH THE HIGHEST
NUMBER OF NEW CASES
PER DAY (NOV 9 TO 15)
REGIONS AND PROVINCES RANKED
ACCORDING TO DAILY NEW CASES OF
COVID-19
Rank Last Week Province 11/9 - 11/15 11/2 – 11/8 Positivity
1 1 NCR 387 515 4%
2 2 Davao Del Sur 112 120 11%
3 3 Cavite 88 78 5%
4 4 Rizal 67 86 5%
5 5 Benguet 62 92 10%
6 8 Quezon 60 64 20%
7 6 Laguna 54 72 9%
8 9 Negros Occidental 53 62 5%
9 11 Pampanga 49 71 6%
10 10 Batangas 48 55 6%
PROVINCES RANKED ACCORDING
TO DAILY NEW CASES OF COVID-19
Rank Last Week Province 11/9 - 11/15 11/2 – 11/8 Positivity
11 16 Cebu 47 27 4%
12 7 Bulacan 44 68 9%
13 13 Zamboanga Del Sur 41 37 12%
14 12 Iloilo 37 49 5%
15 - Pangasinan 33 15 2%
16 14 Misamis Oriental 33 38 11%
17 17 Leyte 31 28 9%
18 - Isabela 30 19 14%
19 18 South Cotabato 25 25 17%
20 20 Nueva Ecija 19 17 7%
CITIES AND MUNICIPALITIES
WITH THE HIGHEST
NUMBER OF NEW CASES PER
DAY (NOV 8 TO 14)
 LGU’S WITH THE MOST NEW CASES PER DAY*
Rank Last LGU Province 11/8 – 11/1 – Attack Hospital
Week 11/14* 11/7* Rate** Occupancy***
1 1 Davao City Davao Del Sur 104 113 5.9% 84%
2 3 Quezon City NCR 74 102 2.8% 55%
3 2 Manila NCR 72 93 4.3% 39%
4 4 Pasig NCR 52 46 5.8% 52%
5 7 Baguio City Benguet 44 40 11.2% 81%
6 8 Makati NCR 33 32 5.1% 75%
7 11 Cagayan De Oro Misamis Oriental 29 29 3.9% 51%
8 5 Taguig NCR 29 40 3.4% 44%
9 10 Pasay NCR 28 28 6.3% 24%
10 9 Caloocan NCR 20 32 1.5% 12%

*Average daily new cases from Nov 8 to 14 and Nov 1 to 7 based on DOH case reports.
**Daily attack rate per 1000 is based on the 2 week period from Nov 1 to 14.
***Occupancy as of November 15, 2020. Critical threshold of 70% established by the DOH.
 LGU’S WITH THE MOST NEW CASES PER DAY*
Rank Last LGU Province 11/8 – 11/1 – Attack Hospital
Week 11/14* 11/7* Rate** Occupancy***
11 21 Parang Maguindanao 20 6 12.2% N/A
12 14 Zamboanga City Zamboanga Del Sur 19 24 2.3% 37%
13 12 Bacolod Negros Occidental 18 29 3.8% 40%
14 23 Las Pinas NCR 18 15 2.6% 65%
15 16 Antipolo Rizal 17 23 2.2% 40%
16 6 Itogon Benguet 16 34 39.4% N/A
17 17 Paranaque NCR 16 21 2.5% 25%
18 20 Cainta Rizal 16 12 4.2% 47%
19 18 Iloilo City Iloilo 16 21 3.9% 54%
20 15 Marikina NCR 16 22 3.9% 34%

*Average daily new cases from Nov 8 to 14 and Nov 1 to 7 based on DOH case reports.
**Daily attack rate per 1000 is based on the 2 week period from Nov 1 to 14.
***Occupancy as of November 15, 2020. Critical threshold of 70% established by the DOH.
 LGU’S WITH THE MOST NEW CASES PER DAY*
Rank Last LGU Province 11/8 – 11/1 – Attack Hospital
Week 11/14* 11/7* Rate** Occupancy***
21 24 Valenzuela NCR 15 14 2.1% 47%
22 13 San Fernando Pampanga 14 29 6.6% 49%
23 32 Batangas City Batangas 14 12 3.6% 70%
24 34 Bacoor Cavite 13 10 1.7% 21%
25 22 Angeles Pampanga 13 16 2.7% 61%
26 19 Mandaluyong NCR 13 18 3.4% 11%
27 - Tuguegarao Cagayan 12 4 4.7% 53%
28 - Cebu City Cebu 12 7 1.0% 23%
29 25 General Santos South Cotabato 11 14 2.0% 50%
30 33 Lucena Quezon 11 11 3.8% 80%

*Average daily new cases from Nov 8 to 14 and Nov 1 to 7 based on DOH case reports.
**Daily attack rate per 1000 is based on the 2 week period from Nov 1 to 14.
***Occupancy as of November 15, 2020. Critical threshold of 70% established by the DOH.
 LGU’S WITH THE MOST NEW CASES PER DAY*
Rank Last LGU Province 11/8 – 11/1 – Attack Hospital
Week 11/14* 11/7* Rate** Occupancy***
31 27 Calamba Laguna 11 16 2.5% 36%
32 28 Dasmarinas Cavite 11 14 1.6% 56%
33 - Calbayog Western Samar 11 6 4.3% 30%
34 - Pagadian Zamboanga Del Sur 10 6 3.9% 80%
35 35 General Trias Cavite 10 11 2.7% 58%
36 - La Trinidad Benguet 10 9 6.0% 77%
37 26 Muntinlupa NCR 10 13 2.0% 69%
38 - Lopez Quezon 10 4 7.0% 63%
39 29 Cotabato City Maguindanao 10 13 3.4% 56%
40 - Tagum Davao Del Norte 9 7 2.8% 46%

*Average daily new cases from Nov 8 to 14 and Nov 1 to 7 based on DOH case reports.
**Daily attack rate per 1000 is based on the 2 week period from Nov 1 to 14.
***Occupancy as of November 15, 2020. Critical threshold of 70% established by the DOH.
 LOCAL GOVERNMENT
UNITS (LGUS) IN THE NCR
RANKED BY ATTACK RATE
In the analysis of hotspots, we use as basis the attack rate per 1000
for the most current 2 week period. The attack rate is just the number
of new cases per day relative to population. For example, a daily attack
rate of 5% per 1000 means that there are 5 new cases per 100,000 of
population per day. A higher attack rate means more people are
getting infected.
NCR LGU’S RANK BASED ON ATTACK RATE*
Rank Last LGU Attack New Cases 11/9 New Cases Hospital
Week Rate* – 11/15 11/2 – 11/8 Occupancy**
1 1 Pateros 7.7% 4 6 50%
2 2 San Juan 6.5% 8 8 33%
3 3 Pasay 6.1% 22 32 24%
4 4 Pasig 5.6% 46 49 52%
5 5 Makati 5.0% 32 34 75%
6 8 Manila 4.3% 65 100 39%
7 10 Taguig 3.7% 34 41 59%
8 7 Marikina 3.7% 12 23 26%

*Daily attack rate per 1000 is based on the 2 week period from Nov 2 to 15.
**Critical threshold of 70% established by the DOH.
NCR LGU’S RANK BASED ON ATTACK RATE*
Rank Last LGU Attack New Cases 11/9 New Cases Hospital
Week Rate* – 11/15 11/2 – 11/8 Occupancy***
9 9 Mandaluyong 3.1% 12 16 11%
10 11 Quezon City 2.6% 67 96 55%
11 16 Las Pinas 2.4% 16 15 65%
12 6 Malabon 2.4% 7 11 21%
13 12 Navotas 2.3% 6 6 23%
14 13 Paranaque 2.3% 14 21 25%
15 14 Valenzuela 2.1% 14 14 47%
16 17 Muntinlupa 2.0% 9 13 69%
17 15 Caloocan 1.5% 18 31 12%

*Daily attack rate per 1000 is based on the 2 week period from Nov 2 to 15.
**Critical threshold of 70% established by the DOH.
FINDINGS AND
RECOMMENDATIONS
 KEY FINDINGS
Based on the latest data from the Department of Health (DOH), our calculations of the reproduction number Rt in the Philippines decreased to
0.81 (from .87) and remains below 1 for the period from November 9 to 15.
The reproduction number Rt in the National Capital Region (NCR) likewise decreased to 0.71 (from .82) and remains below 1 for the period
from November 9 to 15.
Hospital occupancy for total regular or ICU covid-19 beds remains below the critical levels for most of the LGUs in the NCR.
A significant finding of this monitoring report is the continued decline in the positivity rate in the NCR which is now at 4%(down from
5%). It must be noted that, the World Health Organization recommendation is that the positivity rate remain below 5%.

Bethat as it may, the NCR continue to be the epicenter for the Covid-19 virus in the country. But significant outbreaks have now occurred all
around the country. The succeeding section highlights the LGUs of concern or the high- risk LGUs for the monitoring period November 9 to 15.
LGU’S OF CONCERN (HIGH-
RISK)
 We list LGUs of concern or high-risk areas based on high cases per
day, high positivity rate, high attack rate, and/or high hospital
occupancy.
 We are concerned that these LGUs may experience high hospital
burden in the coming weeks that may stress their health care
systems and overwhelm their medical front-liners.
 HIGH-RISK LGU’S
 The LGU’s marked as high-risk (high daily case load and high attack rate and/or high hospital
occupancy) for the period of November 9 to 15 are:

 NCR: Makati
 Luzon: Baguio City, La Trinidad and Itogon (Benguet), Batangas City (Batangas), Lucena and
Lopez (Quezon)
 Visayas: none
 Mindanao: Davao City (Davao del Sur), Pagadian (Zamboanga Del Sur)

 LGUs hotspots of serious concern: Baguio City and Davao City.

The surge in Covid-19 cases in these areas are significant. We are concerned that if the surge is not
contained, that these LGUs may experience high hospital burden in the coming weeks that may stress
their health care systems and overwhelm their medical front-liners
 RECOMMENDATIONS
Inthe high-risk LGUs identified in the NCR and other LGUs around the country, we urge the local government
units (LGUs) concerned to further intensify their efforts at testing, tracing, and isolation to reverse the increase
in transmissions in their communities.

Furthermore,
in the identified high-risk LGUs, the  implementation of  more aggressive and effective localized
lockdowns with stricter border controls is urgently needed to suppress further viral transmissions.

.
 RECOMMENDATIONS
We continue to urge the national and the local governments to strictly monitor and enforce compliance with minimum health
standards such as physical distancing, the wearing of face mask and face shields and proper hygiene to reverse the increase in
transmissions at the community level.

The national and local governments must work together to limit the spread of new cases by increasing testing, contact tracing,
isolation and quarantine, and the implementation of small, targeted lockdowns to contain super-spreading events in our LGUs.
Citizens must also continue to be vigilant and disciplined in following the minimum health standards set by the DOH.

.
 RECOMMENDATIONS
As the national government continues to reopen the economy, there is the possibility
of a significant surge in Covid-19 cases similar to the current outbreaks experienced in
Europe and the US. It is in this light, that we urge the national government;
(1) to further increase the capacity of the national health care system (manpower,
equipment and bed capacity) to deal with the current and potential outbreaks.
(2) to further increase testing to cope with the expected surge in cases.
(3) to further scale-up of contact tracing efforts and to ensure that a robust and
effective contact tracing app for active case finding is utilized all over the country.
(4) to continue building more isolation facilities not just in the NCR but also
strategically in regions around the country where hospital capacities are limited and to
improve the system for coordination and sharing of medical and isolation facilities;
(5) to improve the capabilities of LGUs to implement community health programs and
to undertake effective epidemic surveillance.
 RECOMMENDATIONS
Given the reality that more typhoons are set to visit the country in the coming weeks,  we suggest that LGUs seriously
consider improving their current evacuation strategies and plans to prevent further viral transmissions by ensuring that
minimum health standards are followed in evacuation centers apart from the provision of adequate and accessible 
testing, effective contact tracing and supportive isolation facilities to families stranded in these facilities. 

We continue to exhort  the  private sector to  intensify their efforts to complement the initiatives of the government in
providing  safe workplaces, the provision of adequate testing as needed, ensuring of compliance with minimum health
standards, and implementation of effective contact tracing in the workplace. The cooperation of the business
establishments will significantly reduce the risk of workplace transmissions while jump-starting economic recovery.
OCTA RESEARCH TEAM
 Guido David, Ph.D.

 Professor, Institute of Mathematics

 University of the Philippines and Fellow, OCTA Research (www.octaresearch.com)

 Ranjit Singh Rye, MPA

 Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science

 University of the Philippines and Fellow, OCTA Research (www.octaresearch.com)

 Rev. Fr. Nicanor Austriaco, O.P., Ph.D., S.Th.D., MBA

 Professor, Department of Biology, Providence College

 Visiting Professor of Biological Sciences, Pontifical University of Santo Tomas

 Fellow, OCTA Research (www.octaresearch.com)

 Ma Patricia Agbulos, MBM

 Associate, OCTA Research (www.octaresearch.com)

With contributions from

 Erwin Alampay, Ph.D.

Professor, National College of Public Administration and Governance,

University of the Philippines

 Eero Rosini Brillantes

 CEO, Blueprint Campaign Consultancy (www.blueprint.ph)

 Benjamin Co, M.D.

 Asian Hospital and Medical Center, UST Hospital, Cardinal Santos Medical Center
 Bernhard Egwolf, Dr. rer. nat.
 Associate Professor, Department of Mathematics and Physics,
 College of Science, Pontifical University of Santo Tomas

 Franco Felizarta, M.D.

 Bakersfield, CA

 Troy Gepte, M.D.

 Fellow, OCTA Research (www.octaresearch.com)  

 Bryan Albert Lim

 Fellow, OCTA Research (www.octaresearch.com)  
 Rodrigo Angelo Ong, M.D.
 Professorial Lecturer, Science Society Program, University of the Philippines

 
 Michael Tee, MD, MHPED, MBA
 Professor, UP College of Medicine
 Chair, Philippine One Health University Network

 
 Benjamin Vallejo Jr. Ph.D.
 Professor, Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology & the
 Science Society Program, College of Science, University of the Philippines