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“Rediscovering India”
4. SWOT Analysis
5. Changing Landscape
6. Infliction points
7. Summary
nce upon a timeIndia was the lan
everyone wanted
Exotic Diamonds
Lush Palaces
Monuments in Gold
Majestic Forts
not to forget snake charmers, elephants
& Art forms like kathakali
come
thetimehas back
Rediscovering “India”
It started with the humble IT geek
but now
the list is endless
Express ways, A 380s
lifestyle boutiques, trendy fashion, rocking entertainment
and of course
Malls
MALL has always been an Indian word –
it means “Material”.
And is used vividly to describe
good business,
good thinking.
all this is fueled by
they are the
heroes of today
They have ideas
Educated
Assertive
Year
India is achieving
self sufficiency – generating
disposable surpluses
The Global Retail Development
Index (GRDI)
GRDI 2006 market attractiveness
Most Attractive Developing
markets for retail by region
Window of opportunity analysis (based
on GRDI Rankings for 1995 -2006)
Formats and timing patterns (based
on GRDI ranking for 2004 – 2006)
2. Consumption Forecasts
Consumer Behavioral Trends
Overview of the Retail Market
in India.
Contribution from Organized Retail
Retail market is estimated at approximately US$ 250 billion (2005) , is already
one of the ten largest retail markets in the world. A.T. Kearney’s Global Retail
Development Index 2005 suggests that the Indian retail market has the largest
growth potential of worldwide retail markets. The study forecasts an annual
growth in turnover of around 10% in the next few years. Such growth trends
present immense opportunities in the retail real estate segment.
12 million retail stores resulting in the highest number of per capita retail
outlets in the world
Organized retail currently accounts for only 2-3% of the retail market in India
(compared to up to 17% in China), but the sector is undergoing structural
change, with leading domestic retailers such as Pantaloon, Shopper
Stops,Westside and Big Bazaar going through rapid growth, format migration
and consolidation. Retail consultancy KSA Technopak forecast that the share Years taken growing from <5% to current
of organized retail will rise to 10-12% by 2010. This represents huge market share
opportunity for prospective new players.
Percentage of Outlets by Square feet
The adjoining chart shows the
number of years taken by
organized retail in some of the
developing economies to grow
from < 5% to the current market
share. The economies have
taken anywhere between 8 – 15
years to reach the current
levels.
More than 90% of the outlets in
Source: HSBC Jumbo Retailing, May 2005
India are less than 250 sq ft
Source: Chain Store Age, KSA Technopak, CLSA
Demographics
Shifting Age Profiles
60 & 6.3% 7.0% 7.9% 8.9%
above
58.2%
15-59 60.4%
62.5%
yrs 64.0%
0- 14 35.5%
yrs 32.6% 29.6% 27.1%
More than 60% of the population would be in the working age (15-60) till 2050
Improving socio economic profile
1. Rising per capita GDP since 2. Increased literacy among
1997 masses
Per Capita GDP in US $ (at constant prices) Education cess of 2% is being charged on all direct
growth has been particularly high at 12.7 % p.a. and indirect Central taxes. The proceeds of the
during the period 2002-2004 at back of a robust cess are channeled into the “Prathmik Shiksha
and booming economy. Kosh” maintained by the Ministry of HRD & are
available for basic education and Mid Day Meal
NSSO’s survey indicates that people living Scheme.
below the poverty line declined during the Higher education system in India is very robust and
period 1997-78 and 1999-2000 from 51% to one of the largest in the world with:
26% respectively (from 329 m to 260 m in 259 Institutions
absolute terms) 10,750 Colleges
8 million Students
Improved Literacy Rate 4,00,000 Teachers
Diseases like malaria, leprosy and polio have been tackled effectively and their incidence is now
minimal
Male 33 42 46 51 59 64
Female 32 41 45 50 59 67
With less than 300 fully operational malls in India, Indian Retail Sector by 2006-07 is expected to have
330 malls, shopping centres and multiplexes under construction. It is also estimated to open 35
hypermarkets, 325 large department stores, 1500 supermarkets and over 10000 new outlets.
Though, pan-India organized retail penetration is at 2.5%, there are several categories that have
organized retail penetration of more than 10%. First among them is the footwear, which has a 22%
organized retail penetration. Following the footwear is Apparels and clothing with a retail penetration of
12% and Books and Music with 9% penetration.
The government could further liberalise. The Real Estate sector would witness a major fillip with the
opening up of FDI in retail
The total retail space in India is set to grow 181 % from 32 million sq ft as of August 2005 to 90 million sq ft by 2007,
according to a report ‘Malls of India’ released by Images Multimedia at the India Retail Forum. The organised retail industry is
growing at an average of 30 % per annum and by 2010 is expected to stand at $ 24 billion, around 10 % of the estimated size
of the overall retail industry, the report said. It is also expected that at least two or three of the Indian players would have
crossed the $1 billion mark by then.
FDI*Regime
Exclusive Brand
Outlets
Hyper/Super
Markets
PDS Outlets
Department Stores
Convenience Stores Khadi Stores
Shopping Malls
Mom and Pop/Kiranas Cooperatives
Weekly Markets
Village Fairs Availability/ Low
Shopping
Melas Neighborhood Experience/Efficiency
Costs / Distribution
Stores/Convenience
Source of Entertainment
Retailers Response
From “Street Smart” Locations & Bazaars…
Retailers’ Response
To well attended “High Streets”
Retailers’ Response
To well attended “High Streets”
Retailers Response cont…
Retailers Response cont…
3. Response of
‘Stake Holders’
b. Real Estate
Real Estate Overview
W. Bengal,
25
Malls 5.80
Mn
Maharashtra,
251 Malls 54.35 Mn
Tamilnadu,
Kerala, 23 Malls
3.34 Mn
25 Malls
4.47 Mn
INDIA
City-wise Malls
Amritsar (5)
1.35 Mn
Ludhiana sft
(13)
5.25 Mn sft Faridabad (12)
2.40 Mn sft
Jalandhar (5)
1.04 Mn sft ` Ghaziabad (12)
2.30 Mn sft
Chandigarh/Mohali (8)
3.6 Mn sft
Noida (14)
4.9 Mn
Total No. of Malls
Jodhpur (1) New Delhi (49)
10 Mn sft
sft (28)
Gurgaon proposed in India* : 558
0.15 Mn 5.3 Mn sft
sft
Jaipur (2)
0.2 Mn sft Total B/U area of Malls in
Rajkot (1)
Udaipur (2)
1.0 Mn sft
India* : 123 Mn
0.12 Mn sft Bhopal (1)
Vadodara (9) 1.0 Mn sft
Ahmedabad (8) 2.62 Mn sft
2.69 Mn sft Indore (6) Kolkotta (25)
Surat (6)
2.68 Mn 5.78 Mn sft`
1.66 Mn sft
sft
Kalyan (3) Nasik (3)
0.85 Mn 0.82 Mn
Gr.Mumbai (104) sftNagpur (5)
sft
20.74 Mn sft
1.03 Mn
Thane (22) sft
6.36 Mn sft Aurangabad (10)
Navi Mumbai (18) 1.71 Mn sft
5.21 Mn sft Hyderabad (18)
Pune (68) 3.33 Mn sft
13.93 Mn sft
Secunderabad (4) Vijayawada (4)
0.75 Mn sft 0.67 Mn sft
*Note: The number of
Mysore (8)
B’lore (15)
6.03 Mn
Malls and B/U area
0.86 Mn
sft
sft
above stated are from
Calicut (10)
1.29 Mn sft
Chennai (23)
3.34 Mn sft
11 states only
Kochin (15)
3.18 Mn
sft
Response - Real Estate
Response of Stake holders
c. Financial Institutions
Indicative List of Funds
( Based on India Plans Announced )
Fund Corpus ( USD mn ) Target Segments
Oak Investment partners 5800Retail start ups
Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services Realty Fund 502Equity-linked instruments of real estate companies
ICICI Ventures (India Advantage Fund III) 300Office, Residential & Retail Property Development
d. Government
Government’s response
Setting up Regulatory & Information
Dissemination Framework… enabling growth
CSO
Central Statistical Organisation
Improving urbanization levels…
Urban population has grown by 31% against 18% in rural areas for the period 1991 – 2001
35% of Indian population live in urban centres, the target market for organized retail
Top 10 centres account for 88% of the retail spending in India against 100% 5 years back
According to Census of India 2001 estimates, 41% of the total population of India will be living in urban
areas by 2011. The number of cities with one million plus population is also expected to double from
35 in 2001 to 70 cities by 2025
and infrastructure growing…
Road Development Plan – Vision 2021 of Huge traffic growth demands strong airport
Indian Road Congress, estimates road infrastructure. Worldwide air traffic will grow at an
development of around 242,000 Kms by annualized rate of 5% that is double every 14
2011 with an estimated investment of 60 bn years. India air traffic to grow faster than the
USD average on the back of strong GDP growth
Plans to develop 100% of National
Highways, 50% of State Highways and Proposed Investment = Rs 136 Bn
around 20% of Major District Roads by 2011
Estimated investment in NHDP – Rs 540 Bn,
Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yogana – Rs
600 bn, State Highways and non-NHDP -
Balance
Ports
Privatization of ports has gathered momentum. The sector is likely to attract 100-120 bn
over the next couple of years
Proposed outlay for 10 th plan Rs 163 bn
Sagarmala Maritime project – Planned outlay of Rs 1090 bn
Railways
Indian Rail network of 63000 km is the world’s second largest under a single management.
Network growth has been slow
Total track renewal targeted to be achieved by the end of tenth five year plan is 34,990 km
Indian Railways have created a Rs. 170 bn non-lapsable Special Railway Safety Fund (SRSF), to
be invested over the next five years.
Rs. 120 bn comes from a budgetary grant
Rs. 50 bn through a surcharge on rail fares
Power
India has a total installed power generation capacity 105000 MW. The growth in generation
capacity has lagged behind demand for power.
Annual Power deficit of 7.3% observed in previous years
The government’s programme “ Power for All by 2012” aims to close this gap
The power sector is poised for fresh investments of about Rs 1717 bn over the next 6-7 years.
4. SWOT Analysis
SWOT – Real Estate Industry
Strengths
Development primarily based on strong realistic Weaknesses
demand with limited speculative activity
Certain archaic laws continue to exist
Among the highest yield in the region and globally
Robust and well developed financial market and
ULCRA still to be repealed by certain
system that can tap into RE anytime states, unclear titles, high property tax &
Demonstrated political ‘will’ to take RE to the future stamp duties which differ across states
Relaxation of FDI High transaction cost and need for greater
Repeal of laws transparency
Still largely an unorganized market with
dominance of independent local level
developers
Opportunities Threats
Has strong demand drivers going forward – The fast pace of development may not be
IT-ITES, tourism, increasing consumerism, sustainable for a long term period
industrial manufacturing outsourcing etc. Pace of infrastructure not consistent with
Institutional participation is just opening up real estate development pace which may
REIT/REMF lead to a bottleneck going forward
Overseas investors are sold on the ‘India’ Yields not keeping pace with the increase in
story and India “RE story” – eg. capital values
Ishaan,Hirco etc in overseas markets
Key Challenges…
Infrastructure
59
Constraints
Distribution costs 46
Fragmented Market 44
Lack of
Distribution networks 42
Lack of distribution
32 (% respondents who chose)
hub
Tier 4 – Low Transparency The People’s Republic of China The People’s Republic of China
Macua India
Indonesia Indonesia
25 29 Mexico 2.51 3 3
26 24 Czech Republic 2.69 3 3
27 25 Hungary 2.76 3 3
28 28 Poland 2.76 3 3
29 30 Israel 2.86 3 3
30 27 Taiwan 2.86 3 3
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, LaSalle Investment Management
Denotes a country moved up one tier from 2004 31 34 South Korea 2.88 3 3
Denotes a slight improvement in transparency 32 Na Slovakia 2.99 na 3 na
Denotes a moderate improvement in transparency 33 31 Chile 3.11 3 3
34 32 Greece 3.13 3 3
Denotes a significant improvement in transparency
35 38 *Russia 3.22 4 3
36 35 Philippines 3.30 3 3 no change
37 37 *Brazil 3.31 4 3
38 Na *Slovenia 3.35 na 3 na
40 40 Argentina 3.41 4 3
41 41 *India 3.46 4 3
. Changing Urban Landscap
Case Study – Pune,
Maharashtra
Pune Location - Map
Maharashtra Map
India Map
Map Source: www.mapsofindia.com
Pune Map
Geography – Pune - Maharashtra
• Climate
Winter Temperature: 15 to 25 °C
Summer Temperature: 35 to 39°C
Rainfall (mid-June to mid-September): 722 mm
Lowest Recorded Temperature: 1.3 °C
Highest Recorded Temperature: 43.3 °C
City Urbanscape Growth - Pune - Maharashtra
Pune Cantonment
Formation of Pune
Municipal Corporation in
1950
25-34
15-24
5-14
0-14
200 100 0 100 200 (millions)
Population
Source: DB research Source: Bric Report
Consumption Forecasts
Growth of Services Sector…
Percentage Share in GDP Number of Seats in call centers
Country 2003 2004
Australia 1,35,000 1,46,000
India 96,000 1,58,000
China 38,000 54,000
Philippines 20,000 40,000
New Zealand 12,000 13,500
Source: RBI, DB Research
4. Future Requirements: The total requirement from IT & ITES industry for next 4-5 years expected to
be about 100 – 150 million sq ft i.e. 25 - 30 million sq ft annually as against an absorption of about 14
million sq ft in 2004
Real Estate Demand Drivers –
Growth of Tourism Industry
GROWTH OF TOURISM INDUSTRY
High Growth: India recorded a growth of 20.2% in foreign exchange earnings from tourism in the year
2005 with total receipts at US$ 5731 million and US$ 3514 million till July 2006.The influx of tourists is
at a high with a record 3.8 million tourists arrivals in the country in 2005.
Potential for being a Leading Tourist Destination: By 2020, India is expected to be a leading tourist
destination in South Asia with more than 8 million tourist arrivals
Fueling Growth of Hotel Segment: Fast paced growth of the tourism industry in India, would fuel the
Hotel Segment of the real estate industry
Infliction Points
From To
While the mystery continues to unfold….
there we are
at the wonder once again
ne need not look hard enough
ealize it’s all being made here
right now, as I speak
It’s time to be part of that
wonderful unfoldment
Welcome to India!
Inorbit Malad
•Operational since 2003
Inorbit’s Future Development •BUA=510,000 SFT/ Carpet=360,000 SFT
Inorbit Village Pocharam
Plan and Phasing •Trading Date 1st March 2008
•BUA=360,000 SFT/ Carpet=320,000 SFT
Inorbit Vashi
•Trading Date 15th March 2008
•BUA=550,000 SFT/ Carpet=350,000 SFT
Inorbit Cyberabad
•Trading Date 15th November 2008
•BUA=690,000 SFT/ Carpet=470,000 SFT
Inorbit Lifestyle Vijaywada
•Trading Date 1st December 2008
•BUA=430,000 SFT/ Carpet=300,000 SFT
Inorbit Village Verna-Goa
•Trading Date 1st July 2009
•BUA=500,000 SFT/ Carpet=400,000 SFT
Inorbit Lifestyle,Vadodara
•Trading Date 1st Sept ember- 2009
•BUA=400,000 SFT/ Carpet=300,000 SFT
Inorbit Pune
•Trading Date 1st August 2009
•BUA=510,000 SFT/ Carpet=310,000 SFT
Inorbit Chennai
•Trading Date 1st Feb 2010
•Under planning
Inorbit Makarpura, Baroda
•Trading Date 15th March 2010
•BUA=700,000 SFT/ Carpet=500,000 SFT
Inorbit Indore
•Trading Date 1st March 2010
•BUA=450,000 SFT/ Carpet=280,000 SFT
Inorbit Whitefield, Bangalore
•Trading Date 15th July 2010
•BUA=280,000 SFT/ Carpet=190,000 SFT
Inorbit
•Trading Date 2011
•Koba-Ahmedabad,
•Kadamba-Goa,and Airoli
Thank you
Manoj Motta
manoj.motta@inorbit.in
mmotta@kraheja.com
Real Estate Demand Drivers –
Large and Growing Consumer Class
Disposable Income has grown at 11%
600 18.0%
14.0%
10.0%
The Rich
300
8.0%
200 6.0%
4.0%
100
0 0.0%
FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04
house 2.
Target market for organized retail