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STRATEGIES
USING
FORWARDS AND
FUTURES
$ = 67.50 $ 65.00
Gain on spot market = 65.80 – 67.50 = - Gain of Spot Market = 65.80 – 65.00 =
1.70 0.80
Gain on Forward = 67.50 – 66.20 = 1.30 Gain on Forward = 65.00 – 66.20 =
-1.20
Net Gain or Loss = -1.70 + 1.30 = Net Gain or Loss = 0.80 + -1.20 =
-0.40 -0.40
Effective Price= 65.80 + 0.40 = 66.20 Effective Price= 65.80 + 0.40 = 66.20
$ = 67.20 $ 64.70
Gain on spot market = 67.20 – 65.30 = Gain on spot market = 64.70 – 65.30 = -
1.90 0.60
Gain on Forward = 65.90 – 67.20 = Gain on Forward = 65.90 – 64.70 = 1.20
-1.30
Net Gain or Loss = +1.90 - 1.30 = 0.60 Net Gain or Loss = -0.60 + 1.20 = 0.60
Effective Price= 65.30 + 0.60 = 65.90 Effective Price= 65.30 + 0.60 = 65.90
Buyer/Borrower = L( RM RK )(T2 T1 )
■ MIBOR at 7%
L( RM RK )(T2 T1 ) 10(.07 .065)(1 .25)
Pay off = =
1 RM (T2 T1 ) 1 .07(1 .25)
= Rs.35629.45
■ MIBOR at 6%
Payoff = 10(.06 .065)(1 .25)
1 .06(1 .25)
= (- Rs.35,885.2)
■ Timing Mismatch
– Date when the asset is to be bought or sold may not
match with the expiry date of the future contract
– Future contracts may have to be closed out before the
delivery month
■ Assets mismatch
– Asset to be hedged may not exactly be the same as
underlying asset in a future contract
– Cross hedging
Cost of asset S2
Gain on Futures F2 −F1
Net amount paid S2 − (F2 −F1) =F1 + b2
Price of asset S2
Gain on Futures F1 −F2
Net amount paid S2 + (F1 −F2) =F1 + b2
Short Strengthening basis Spot price rises more than future price
Or
Spot price falls less than future price
Or
Spot price rises and future price falls
March 30
■ Spot price of Gold : $1387.15
■ Gold Future (June) : $ 1388.60
Expiration (June)
■ Spot price of Gold : $1408.50
Closed prior to expiration
■ Spot Price of Gold : $ 1377.52
■ Gold Future (June) : $1378.63
F
– S = Standard deviation of change in spot price
– F = Standard deviation of change in futures price
– = Correlation coefficient between spot price and futures price
■ Optimal hedge ratio is also termed as Minimum variance hedge
ratio.
Optimal hedge ratio
■ Optimal number of futures contracts is given as
thus:
*
h NA
N
*
QF
– NA = Size of the position being hedged (units)
– QF = Size of the futures contracts (units)
– N* = Optimal number of futures contracts for hedging
Illustration V
* 0.0263
h 0.928 0.7777
0.0313
VA
( ) *
VF
■ Long future to increase β to β*
VA
( )
*
VF
■ INDEX : 8000
■ INDEX FUTURE : 8200
■ Size of Contract : 50
■ Value of Portfolio : 5,000,000
■ Beta of Portfolio : 1.2
– A) What position is necessary to reduce the β of the
portfolio to 0.75?
– B) What position is necessary to increase the β of the
portfolio to 2.0?
5,000,000
(1.2 0.75)
410,000
5.48 or say 5
■ No of Contracts to go long to increase β to 2.00
5,000,000
(2.0 1.2)
410,000
= 9.756 or say 10
■ Rolling Over
■ We can roll futures contracts forward to hedge
future exposures
■ Initially we enter into futures contracts to
hedge exposures up to a time horizon
■ Just before maturity we close them out an
replace them with new contract reflect the new
exposure etc
■ Hedging
– Long Hedges and Short Hedges
■ Basis Risk
■ Cross Hedging
– Optimal Hedge Ratio
■ Hedging Using Index Futures
– Changing β of a portfolio
■ Stack and Roll
■ A swap is an agreement to
exchange cash flows at specified
future times according to certain
specified rules
– Interest Rate Swap
– Currency Swap
7%
7%
X Y
MIBOR+1%
MIBOR+1%
6.985% 7.015%
7%
X F.I. Y
MIBOR+1%
MIBOR+1% MIBOR +1%
• AAA has advantage in both markets but in Fixed it has higher comparative advantage
• Potential Gain = (8.2%-7.0%) – (0.6%-0.1%) = 0.7%; to be shared
Fixed Floating
AAA Corp 7.0% 6 month MIBOR + 0.1%
BBB Corp 8.2% 6 month MIBOR + 0.6%
7.25%
7%
AAACorp BBBCorp
MIBOR+0.6%
MIBOR
7.23% 7.27%
7%
AAACorp BBBCorp
F.I
. MIBOR+0.6%
MIBOR MIBOR
Swap
USD 5% GE Qantas AUD 8.0%
Dealer
USD 5% USD 6.3%
■ Swaps
– Exchange of one stream of future cash flows with an
alternative stream of cash flows
■ Interest Rate Swaps
– To covert the floating rate assets/liabilities to fixed
rate assets/liabilities and vice versa
■ Currency Swaps
– To covert investments/liabilities in one currency to
investments/liabilities in another currency
■ https://www.hdfcbank.com/wholesale/fit/financial_institutions/d
erivatives_desk/derivatives_desk.htm
■ Option
– Right but not the obligation to buy or sell a specified quantity of
the underlying asset at a fixed exercise price on or before
expiration date
■ Call Option
– The right to buy
■ Put Option
– The right to sell
■ Option Writer
– Option seller – has an obligation to perform according to the
contract
– Also called as the `short position’
■ Option Holder
– Option buyer – buys the rights (but not obligation) conveyed by
the option
– Also called as the `long position’
■ Exercise Price
– Price at which the contract is settled
– Also referred to as `strike price’
■ Expiration Date
– The date on which the option expires
– The option holder would have no right after the expiration
date
– Also referred to as `maturity’
■ Premium
– Price that the holder of the option pays and the writer of an
option receives for the rights conveyed by the option
– Premium is market determined
– Key factors
■ Spot Price of underlying, exercise price, volatility, volatility,
time remaining till expiration, interest rate etc.
■ Opening Transaction
– A purchase or sale transaction by which a person
establishes or increases a position
■ Closing Transaction
– A transaction by which a person reduces or cancels out
previous position
30 Profit ($)
20
10 Terminal
70 80 90 100 stock price ($)
0
-5 110 120 130
Profit ($)
5 110 120 130
0
70 80 90 100 Terminal
-10 stock price ($)
-20
-30
30 Profit ($)
20
10 Terminal
stock price ($)
0
40 50 60 70 80 90 100
-7
Profit ($)
Terminal
7
40 50 60 stock price ($)
0
70 80 90 100
-10
-20
-30
■ Type of Options
■ Options’ Payoff
– Long Call
– Short Call
– Long Put
– Short Put
■ Market Mechanism
■ Call option
– European : c S0;
■ If not True
– Sell call option and buy stock to make riskless profit
■ Put option
– European : p Ke –rT;
■ If not True
– Sell put option and invest the proceeds of sale at risk free
rate of interst
c S0 –Ke -rT
■ c S0 –Ke –rT
■ = Rs. 83.21
■ As Call option is mispriced in market, buy call option and sell
stock to take advantage of the mispricing
p Ke -rT–S0
• If not true, buy put and buy stock
to make riskless profit
■ Suppose that
p= 10 S0 = 1000
T = 2 Months r =10%
K = 1040 D =0
■ Is there an arbitrage opportunity?
■ p Ke –rT -S0
■ = Rs. 22.81
■ As Put option is mispriced in market, buy put and stock to take
advantage of the mispricing at a total outflow of Rs.1010.
– c + Ke -rT = p + S0
ST > K ST < K
Portfolio A Call option ST − K 0
Zero-coupon bond K K
Total ST K
Portfolio C Put Option 0 K− ST
Share ST ST
Total ST K
■ c + Ke -rT = p + S0
c= 3 S0= 31
T = 0.25 r = 10%
K =30 D=0
■ What are the arbitrage possibilities when:
a) p = 2.25 ?
b) p = 1.00 ?
rT
c S 0 D Ke
rT
p D Ke S0
c + D+ Ke -rT = p + S0
D is the present value of dividends during the life of
the option
PGDM/Financial Derivatives/Option Properties/ Sanjay
Dhamija
Learning