Aging Aircraft Presentation

Shaheen Air International

A320-232
 Aging Airplane Program - FAA
Aircraft Total Flight Total Flight
Aircraft Model
Registration Cycles Hours
A320-200 AP-BLH 41,743 23,697
A320-200 AP-BLI 41,457 22,508
FAA Recommendations
A320-200 - 48,000 FC 60,000 FH

The FAA has adopted the Limit of Validity (LOV) Approach which monitors the
aircraft cycles and flight hours up till the manufacturers recommended aircraft life
span (i.e. Flight cycles and flight hours).
*AP-BLH First flight: 13-03-1997
*AP-BLI First flight: 02-07-1998

[3] Federal Register Volume 75, Number 219 (Monday, November 15, 2010) – Aging Airplane Program:
Widespread Fatigue Damage; Final Rule – [https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2010-11-15/html/2010-28363.htm]
 EASA – Airworthiness Limitations
Section
Aircraft Total Flight Total Flight Hours
Aircraft Model Registration Cycles
A320-200 AP-BLH 41,743 23,697
A320-200 AP-BLI 41,457 22,508
EASA Recommendations
48,000 FC 60,000 FH
A320-200 -
37,500 FC 80,000 FH

EASA has also taken a similar approach to the FAA identifying the limit of validity
recommended by the manufacturer as the marker for Aging aircraft widespread
fatigue damage limits.
[4] Airbus Airworthiness Limitations Section (Issue: May 13/11 ALS Part 1-0 Page: 9)
Salient data extracted from the worldwide fleet of the A320 family:

• There are 6,766 A320 Family aircraft currently either active or parked.
These have an average age 8.6 years.
• Production of the aircraft has been heavily influenced by high rates in the
last 10 years with 66% of all 320’s produced between 2006 and now.
• Since launch and 1998 there were 702 aircraft manufactured. Of these 285
have been retired but only 16 of those were built in 1997 and 1998.
• A320 fleet has an average accumulated total hours of 25,021 and 13,545
cycles.
• BLH and BLI have 41,743 hours and 41,457 hours respectively with cycles
of 23,697 and 22,508.
• There are currently 250 aircraft of the A320 family with an age of 20 years
or above are currently still in operation in many reputable airlines across the
globe some of which are given in the list.
 NUMBER OF CRASHES PER MILLION FLIGHTS

Model Rate Flights Events

Airbus A310** 1.34 4.76M 9
Airbus A320/318/319/321 0.11 84.62 14
Airbus A330 0.27 7.41M 2
Airbus A340** 0 3.03M 0
Airbus A380 0 UNK 0
ATR 42 and ATR 72 0.37 26.8M 12
Boeing 737-100/200** 0.61 58.29M 49
Boeing 737-300/400/500** 0.15 73.68M 18
Boeing 737-600/700/800/900 0.08 60.87M 7
Boeing 747 0.66 20.81M 28
Boeing 777 0.24 8.33M 3
Boeing 787 0 UNK 0
Concorde*** 11.36 0.09M 1
Embraer 170/190 0.04 10.34M 1
 NUMBER OF CRASHES PER 2 MILLION FLIGHTS
As of 25 March 2015, the order of the airline models with the five lowest crash rates
(for models with at least two million flights) has changed, with the Airbus A320
dropping to fifth place due to the March 2015 German-wings crash in France.

Fatal Crash Rate Per 2

S. No Aircraft model Million Flights
1. Airbus A340 0.00
2. Embraer 170/190 0.05
3. Boeing 747-400 0.07
4. Boeing 737-600/700/800/900 0.08
5. Airbus A320 (includes A318, A319, A321) 0.10
 Accidents for A320s Constructed between 1997 and 1998
• Consider the A320s constructed during the period 1997-1998.
• Total number of Aircraft built: 150
• Percentage of Accidents: 2%
Date of
Airline Year of Accident
S.No Aircraft Type Accident /
(Registration) Manufacture Type
Incident
Philippine Airline Landing
01 A320-214 1997 22-03-1998
(RP-C3222) Overshot
Philippine Airline Landing
02 A320-214 1997 26-10-2007
(RP-C3224) Overshot
TAM Airline Landing
03 A320-233 1998 17-07-2007
(PR-MBK) Overshot
 Accidents for All Aircraft Constructed (1988 – to date)
A320 Only
• Total number of Aircraft built: 4440
• Number of Accidents: 25

A320 Design

Other
Scrapped
Accidents

Active
 Dependence of Aircraft Age on Safety

A Study on the Impact of Aircraft Age on Safety for Air Transport Jet Airplanes by
Professor R. John Hansman was conducted in October 2014.

The research analyzed the effects of aircraft age on aircraft operation

It also evaluated the role of aircraft age in fatal aircraft accidents as well as the
causes behind the accidents.

The Study concluded that there is no correlation between the fatal accident rates and
aircraft age up to 27 years of age.
Aircraft Accidents per Aircraft-Year
Impact of Aircraft Age
 Accidents on 20+ Year Old Aircraft

Occurrence Categories for all 385 Accidents of 20+ year old Aircraft

3%

30%

68%

Non-Aircraft Related Aircraft Related Unknown

Alternatives to Age Based Import Restrictions
The analysis of the impact of aircraft age on safety does not support simple age based
restrictions as the most effective mechanism to maintain aviation safety.
As an alternative, many states have rigorous processes to assure the continued
airworthiness of older aircraft.

The currently accepted practice in managing structural degradation effects is the Limit of
Validity approach which is currently incorporated in the U.S. Federal Aviation Regulations
and is being incorporated in the European Aviation Safety Agency regulations.
 
The LOV approach is also supported by most manufacturers of commercial jet transport
aircraft.

The Limit of Validity is the number of total accumulated flight cycles or flight hours or both,
for which it has been demonstrated that Widespread Fatigue Damage is unlikely to occur
in the aircraft structure; and that the inspections and other maintenance actions and
procedures resulting from this demonstration and other elements of the fatigue and
damage tolerance evaluation are sufficient to prevent catastrophic failure of the aircraft
structure.
Conclusion
• To conclude the studies correlating aircraft age to the causes behind accidents
have definitively provided no direct link.

• The conclusion was that retirement behaviour and economic life expectations
had both stabilized over the past decade or more, with the average age at
which commercial jets are retired holding steady at around 26-27 years and a
stable outlook.

[1] (AVOLON White Paper – September 2012)

[2] Analysis of Impact of Aircraft Age on Safety for Air Transport Jet Airplanes (Professor R. John
Hansman, October 2014)