AREP

GURME

Section 11
Case Studies of Episodes

What is a Case Study?

How to Conduct Case Studies
Examples
 AREP
GURME

What is a Case Study?

Analysis of the causes of an air quality episode
Case studies provide insight into important
processes

Components of a case study

• Air quality conditions
• Weather situation
• Summary of episode
– Important air quality processes
– Important meteorological processes
Section 11 – Case Study of Episodes
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How to Conduct Case Studies

● Select a few air quality episodes to study
– Include ramp-up and cleanout days
● Review locations, magnitude, and duration of poor air
quality
● Review surface and upper-air weather patterns
● Create backward trajectories to estimate transport
● Estimate upwind air quality to quantify local versus
background contributions
● Review the temperature soundings to estimate
vertical mixing
● Summarize the important processes that produced
the episode
Section 11 – Case Study of Episodes
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Examples
Each example includes
• Location and background
• Air quality conditions
• Weather situation (surface, upper-air, stability, winds, etc.)
• Summary of episode (air quality and meteorology)
Case study examples
• PM10 episode
• Ozone episode
• PM2.5 episode
• CO episode
• Long-range transport episode
• Multi-pollutant episode
• Smoke episode
Section 11 – Case Study of Episodes
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Case Study of PM10 Episode in Cairo,
Egypt
● Location and background
● Air quality conditions
● Weather situation
● Summary of episode (air quality and
meteorology)

Section 11 – Case Study of Episodes

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Location – Cairo, Egypt

Cairo

Section 11 – Case Study of Episodes

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Air Quality Conditions

700
PM10CAIRO
ntration (ug/m3) (ug/m3)

600 P M 1 0 C a iro is th e a v e r a g e o f Q u a la ly , A b b a s s ia , a n d G iz a PM10Median

P M 1 0 m e d ia n is th e m e d ia n c o n c e n tr a tio n a t a ll C a iro m o n it o rin g s ite s
500
ceConcentration

400
300
200
Con10

100
PM

D a te

Time series plot of PM10 concentrations in Cairo in October 1999. The

October 20-25, 1999, episode is outlined (Dye et al., 2000).

Section 11 – Case Study of Episodes

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Weather Situation (1 of 6)
Surface and upper-air weather patterns

500-mb heights (dm) (solid) and 850-mb temperatures ( oC) (dashed) (left), and sea
level pressure (mb) and surface wind flags (right) on October 20, 1999, at 1400 LT
Section 11 – Case Study of Episodes
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Weather Situation (2 of 6)
Surface and upper-air weather patterns
L

Light
northerly
winds
Weak trough
just passed

500-mb heights (dm) (solid) and 850-mb temperatures ( oC) (dashed) (left), and sea level
pressure (mb) and surface wind flags (right) on October 23, 1999, (high PM day) at 1400 LT
Section 11 – Case Study of Episodes
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Weather Situation (3 of 6)
Surface and upper-air weather patterns

Moderate
northerly
winds
Strong trough
just passed

500-mb heights (dm) (solid) and 850-mb temperatures ( oC) (dashed) (left), and sea level
pressure (mb) and surface wind flags (right) on October 25, 1999, (cleanout day) at 1400 LT
Section 11 – Case Study of Episodes
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Weather Situation (4 of 6)
Backward trajectories to estimate transport
32

20-Oct
21-Oct
22-Oct
23-Oct
31.5 24-Oct 21
25
25-Oct 20
22
Latitude (degrees)

31 24

23

30.5

Short transport
30
on high PM day

29.5
29.5 30 30.5 31 31.5 32 32.5
Longitude (degrees)

12-hr backward trajectories ending in Cairo at 1400 LT each day October 20 to 25, 1999.
Section 11 – Case Study of Episodes
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Weather Situation (5 of 6)
Upper-air nighttime soundings to estimate
vertical mixing
3000
20-Oct
21-Oct
22-Oct
23-Oct
2500 24-Oct
25-Oct
Height (m)

2000

Warming
1500

25

20 23 24
1000 21 22
Strong
500 Inversion
0
10 15 20 25 30

Temperature (ºC)
0200 LT temperature soundings taken at Helwan from October 20 to 25, 1999.
Section 11 – Case Study of Episodes
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Weather Situation (6 of 6)
Upper-air daytime soundings to estimate
vertical mixing
3000
20-Oct
21-Oct
22-Oct
23-Oct
2500 24-Oct
25-Oct

2000

Warming
Height (m)

1500
24
21 22
20
1000

25 23

500

0
10 15 20 25 30

Temperature (ºC)
1400 LT temperature soundings taken at Helwan from October 20 to 25, 1999.
Section 11 – Case Study of Episodes
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Summary of Episode
Episode characteristics
• Weak upper-level troughs passed over and north of Egypt
• The troughs lowered surface pressures to the north,
thereby weakening the northerly winds, but winds still
remained light-to-moderate from the north
• Aloft temperatures warmed, the capping inversion lowered,
and vertical mixing was reduced
• Despite the moderately strong northerly winds, the
reduced vertical mixing allowed for high PM10
concentrations
• The episode ended when a strong trough followed by a
ridge passed over Egypt, increasing the northerly winds
and weakening the inversion
Section 11 – Case Study of Episodes
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Examples
● GTT – Please provide examples of other case studies
● For each example include
– Location and background
– Air quality conditions
– Weather situation (surface, upper-air, stability, winds, etc.)
– Summary of episode (air quality and meteorology)
● Case study examples
– Ozone episode
– PM2.5 episode
– PM10 episode (done)
– CO episode
– Long-range transport episode
– Multi-pollutant episode
– Smoke episode
Section 11 – Case Study of Episodes
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Case Study of Ozone Episode

● Location and background
● Air quality conditions
● Weather situation
● Summary of episode (air quality and
meteorology)

Section 11 – Case Study of Episodes

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Case Study of Ozone Episode

 Youngstown, Ohio, USA

 Summer 2002

Section 11 – Case Study of Episodes

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Case Study of Ozone Episode
9-11 June 2002 Episode
160
Youngstown
140

* * *
Regional 8-hr O3 Maximum

Maximum AQI
120
100
80
60

* * * *
40
20
0
7- 8- 9- 10 11 12 13
Ju Ju Ju -J -J -J -J
n n n un un un un
500-mb Heights Surface Pressure (msl) 24-hr Backward Trajectory
L
L H
H
L
L H L

H
HH HH H
H
Section 11 – Case Study of Episodes
13
Jun 11
07
10
12thth 12:00 pm EST
09
08 EST
18
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Case Study of Ozone Episode

M a x im u m A Q I
8 July 2002 Episode
160
Youngstown
140
120
100
* Regional 8-hr O3 Maximum

80
60
40

* *
20
0 * *
500-mb Heights Surface Pressure (msl) 24-hr Backward Trajectory

H L
H
H
H H
Section 11 – Case Study of Episodes

Jul
Jul 08
07
09
10
06thth 12:00
12:00 pm
pm EST
EST 19
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Summary of Ozone Episodes
Episode characteristics
• Ridge of high pressure created high pressure
system
• Recirculation was important for the 9-11 June
and July 8, 2002
• Episodes occurred on weekdays, which
typically have higher emission patterns
• Trajectories are useful for diagnosing air
movement
• Transport of ozone from upwind regions
contributed to the ozone on 11 June 2002

Section 11 – Case Study of Episodes

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Case Study of Ozone Episode in
Sydney, Australia

● Ozone episode
M U SW ELLBR O O K

6400

6350 N EW C ASTLE

N O R T H IN G (k m )
6300
L IT H G O W
AUSTRALIA P E N R IT H
6250 SYD NEY

P IC T O N
6200
W O LLO N G O N G

SYDNEY 6150

200 250 300 350 400 450 500

E A S T IN G (k m )

Section 11 – Case Study of Episodes

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 AREP
GURME Eg: Syndey O3 Event Dec 1998
Richmond Ozone
140
O3 (obs)
120 O3 (ctm)

-3 3 .6 100

R IC H
Conc (ppb)

80 Lindfield Ozone
140
60 O3 (obs)
120

VYNE
40 O3 (ctm)
100

Conc (ppb)
20 St. Mary's Ozone
140 80
0 O3 (obs)

-3 3 .7 0 12120 0 12 0 12 O3 (ctm)
Blacktown Ozone
60
L A T IT U D E (d e g re e s )

100 Time (h) 140 40

Conc (ppb)

O3 (obs)
80 120 O3 (ctm)
20

60 100 0

Conc (ppb)
0 12 0 12 0 12
40

20
80
60
BLAC L IN D
Time (h)

-3 3 .8 0
0 12 0 12 0 12
S T .M 40
20
W STM
Time (h)
0
Bringely Ozone 0 12 0 12 0 12
140
Time (h)

RO ZE
O3 (obs)
120 O3 (ctm)

-3 3 .9
100
L ID C
Conc (ppb)

80
60

40
B R IN 140
120
Liverpool Ozone

L IV E O3 (obs)
O3 (ctm)
EARL RAND
20 100
Conc (ppb)

0 80
0 12 0 12 0 12
60

-3 4 .0 Time (h)
40

20 TASM AN
Camden Ozone
CAM D W O O L Woolooware Ozone

SEA
140 0 140

CAM P
O3 (obs) 0 12 0 12 0 12 O3 (obs)
120 120
O3 (ctm) Time (h) O3 (ctm)
100 100
Conc (ppb)

Conc (ppb)
-3 4 .1
80 80
Bargo Ozone
140
60 O3 (obs) 60
40

20
1 5 0 .5 1 5 0 .6 1 5 0 .7 120
100
1 5 0 .8 1 5 0 .9 O3 (ctm)
1 5 1 .0 1 5 1 .1 40

20
1 5 1 .2 1 5 1 .3 1 5 1 .4
Conc (ppb)

80

L O N G IT U D E (d e g re e s )
0 0
0 12 0 12 0 12 60 0 12 0 12 0 12
Time (h) Time (h)
40

20 Section 11 – Case Study of Episodes

0
0 12 0 12 0 12 22
Time (h)
 AREP
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Case Study of Smoke Episode in
Melbourne, Australia

● Smoke episode
-3 6 .0
W O D O N G A
W A N G A R A TTA
SH E P P A R TO N

B E N D IG O
-3 7 .0
C A S T L E M A IN E

B A LLA R A T

AUSTRALIA

N O R T H IN G
M E LB O U R N E
-3 8 .0
G E E LO N G W A R R A G U L

-3 9 .0
B A S S S T R A IT
MELBOURNE
-4 0 .0

1 4 3 .0 1 4 4 .0 1 4 5 .0 1 4 6 .0 1 4 7 .0
E A S T IN G

Section 11 – Case Study of Episodes

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 AREP
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Case Study of Smoke Episode in
Melbourne, Australia
H O U R 1620 172 1 12 21 J AJ AN NU UA AR RY Y 2 02 0 10 1
-3 6 .0
W O D O N G A
W AN G AR ATTA
SHEPPAR TO N

B E N D IG O
-3 7 .0
C A S T L E M A IN E

BALLAR AT
N O R T H IN G

M ELBO UR N E
-3 8 .0
G EELO N G W ARR AG U L

-3 9 .0
B A S S S T R A IT

-4 0 .0

Section 11 – Case Study of Episodes

1 4 3 .0 1 4 4 .0 1 4 5 .0 1 4 6 .0 1 4 7 .0
24
E A S T IN G
 AREP
GURME
Case Study of Smoke Episode in
Melbourne, Australia
Visible satellite image and modeled smoke

Section 11 – Case Study of Episodes

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 AREP
GURME

How to Conduct Case Studies

● Select a few air quality episodes to study
– Include ramp-up and cleanout days
● Review locations, magnitude, and duration of poor air
quality
● Review surface and upper-air weather patterns
● Create backward trajectories to estimate transport
● Estimate upwind air quality to quantify local versus
background contributions
● Review the temperature soundings to estimate
vertical mixing
● Summarize the important processes that produced
the episode
Section 11 – Case Study of Episodes
26