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THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE

CHANGE ON FOOD SECURITY
AND POVERTY IN THE PEOPLE’S
REPUBLIC OF CHINA
Qi Gubo
China Agricultural University
New Delhi, 25th November 2010
 Outline
• The importance of agricultural
development in China
• The impact of climate change on
agriculture and poverty in China
• Inter-linkage of poverty alleviation and
mitigation and adaptation to climate
change from institutional perspective
• Recommendations
 The importance of agricultural
development in China
• Contribution to food security
Self-sufficiency ratio for grains (including soybean)
exceeded 95% in 2007
Cereal imports in China’s total agricultural imports
already dropped to 8.68% in 2004
• Contribution to poverty alleviation
The decline in rural poverty from 250 million in 1978 to
14.78 million in 2007
Aggregate growth originating in agriculture is estimated
to have been 3.5 times more effective in reducing
poverty than growth outside agriculture (World Bank,
2008: 6)
 The impact of climate change on
agriculture and poverty in china
• Food production fluctuation induced by climate
change
~The three main food crops’ production would be
decreased by 14%~23% among 20~50 years with the
temperature increase and water and arable land
decrease, if not involving climate adaptation strategy

~The fluctuation of food production in China will be

influenced by climate change and extreme weather
incidents, increasing from 10% in the past to 20%, even
to 30% in those most unfavorable years

~ The productivity of major food crops will decline

 Predicted change of unit yield of three main food crops in China
(yield in 2000 as baseline)
Scenario CO2 Cropping Change of unit Change of unit Change of unit
of fertilization Pattern yield of rice (%) yield of wheat (%) yield of maize
climate (%)
2020s 2050s 2020s 2050s 2020s 2050s

A2 Not Rain-fed -18.5 -20.4 -10.3 -22.8

Middle- considered
irrigated -8.9 -12.4 -5.6 -6.7 -5.3 -11.9
high
emission Considered Rain-fed 15.4 13.3 9.8 18.4

irrigated 3.8 6.2 20.0 25.1 -0.6 -2.2

B2 Not Rain-fed -10.2 -11.4 -11.3 -14.5

Middle- considered
low irrigated -1.1 -4.3 -0.5 -2.2 0.2 -0.4
emission
Considered Rain-fed 4.5 6.6 1.1 8.5

irrigated -0.4 -1.2 11.0 14.2 -0.1 -1.3

Source: Lin et al. 2005

The change of food supply per capita in future various time phases

Source: Lin Erda et al. 2008 : 26

 The impact of climate change on
agriculture and poverty in china
• Agricultural structural adjustment induced by
climate change
~Planting structure is changed rapidly and grain
proportion in planting area was changed from 80% in
1980 to 67% in 2005, with grain output increasing from
321 million tons in 1980 to 484 million tons in 2005
~Multiple planting area extended to north and high
altitude area.
~Planting area of winter wheat and rice extended to
north and west.
~Maize in northeast moved to north and east.
~The expansion of planting area of late matured varieties
~Negative impacts on crops planted in ecotones
 The impact of climate change on
agriculture and poverty in china
• Poverty impacts of climate change
~The vulnerability caused by climate change risks is
becoming one of the main causes of poverty.
~The poverty-stricken areas are all with extremely fragile
ecological environment
~The poverty incidence is higher in the ecotones
~Climate risks are manifested in the ecotones as frequent
natural disasters
~Poor people sometimes are excluded from planning
adaptation activities
~Threatens on poverty with more health problems
 Percentages of rural poor population in 8 major ecotones

Source: the statistics and calculation from National Bureau of Statistics of China
 Inter-linkage of poverty alleviation and
mitigation and adaptation to climate
change from institutional perspective
• Poverty alleviation strategy and climatic risks
~The ecological vulnerability of poor people living in
those fragile areas is getting worse due to climatic risks,
which have not been integrated into current poverty
alleviation strategy
~Microfinance has its own limits in mitigating the negative
effects of climate change risks on poor population (could
be combining with micro-finance)
~Industrial poverty alleviation promotes scale production;
then on the one hand, scale production can enhance the
capacity of responding to natural risks including climate
risks
~Food for work fund enhance the infrastructure of road,
water conservancy, irrigation, drinking water system,
which enhance the adaptability of poor people
 Inter-linkage of poverty alleviation and
mitigation and adaptation to climate
change from institutional perspective
• Policies of mitigation and planned adaptation to
climate change and vulnerability of poor people
~A national strategic response to climate change
~It is difficult to find the poverty integration in the national
climate change programme, though already some relevant
projects, e.g. bio-gas projects in rural areas, converting
farmland to forests, funds for forest ecological benefit
compensation, returning the pasture to grasslands, wetland
protection, and construction of nature reserves
~The policy promises of mitigating climate change have new
requirements, which are closely related to rural livelihoods. All
these measures will increase the livelihood vulnerability of the
poor population to some extent within a certain period of time.
E.g Nature reserves
~Adaptation to Climate Change in China (ACCC)
 Inter-linkage of poverty alleviation and
mitigation and adaptation to climate
change from institutional perspective
• Autonomous adaptation to climate change of poor
people
~Responsive measures based upon the traditional
livelihood structure, such as collecting rain water,
changing the farming cycle, preserving soil moisture,
water-saving irrigation, etc.
~Alternative livelihoods, e.g. alternative crops, livestock
and poultry, changing from fishing to planting and animal
husbandry, developing an orchard, going out for
employment opportunities, etc.

 Inter-linkage of poverty alleviation and
mitigation and adaptation to climate
change from institutional perspective
• Autonomous adaptation to climate change of poor
people
 ~Adaptation with external interventions combined with the traditional
living structure, state-funded construction of irrigation and water
conservancy facilities and water-saving irrigation technology;
adjusting grazing time and livestock carrying capacity by combining
with stable breeding, with technological and financial aids
 ~Adaptation and adjustments to alternative livelihoods via external
interventions, e.g. poor women in arid areas start small businesses or
engage in animal husbandry with the aid of a microfinance project;
people in ethnic-minority inhabited areas where economic activities
are limited can develop tourism, or produce and sell handicrafts; and
those in areas too harsh for living can rebuild their livelihoods in new
areas through voluntary migration
 Inter-linkage of poverty alleviation and
mitigation and adaptation to climate
change from institutional perspective
• Experiences of enhancing adaptability to climate
change of poor people in China
~Farming households have the needs of getting external
assistance to improve their own adaptability.
~Infrastructure support
 ~Insurance policies
 ~Better disaster preparedness and warning of floods or
typhoons
~Support to carbon market
 Recommendations

• Action research on community-based adaptation to

climate change in fragile areas
• Specific compensation policies on encouraging
agricultural production, particularly food production
(corresponding to adjustment of agricultural
structure)
• Ecological compensation policies in fragile areas
• An inclusive poverty alleviation strategy with
integration of climate change adaptation (targeting
in ecotones; ecological poverty criteria)