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UPSTREAM PETROLEUM
ECONOMICS
1
Introducing Upstream Petroleum Economic Module
Seeing The Forest and The Trees
2
Introducing Upstream Petroleum Economic Module
Learning Objectives and Assessment Criteria
3
Relating To Commercial Value Chain
Topics and The Commercial Value Chain
STRATEGY
EXECUTION
Pre-Entry Acquire Manage
(Assessment) (Farm-in/M&A) (E/D/P)
4
Relating To Commercial Value Chain
Topics and The Commercial Value Chain
STRATEGY
EXECUTION
Pre-Entry Acquire Manage
(Assessment) (Farm-in/M&A) (E/D/P)
5
Upstream Petroleum Economic Module
Programme Schedule
6
Upstream Petroleum Economic Module
Learning Objectives (Part 1)
• Tutorial
• Generate technical input data
• Calculate Cash Flow
7
Upstream Petroleum Economic Module
Learning Objectives (Part 2)
• Tutorial
• Develop Fiscal Arrangements computational logic
• Calculate key economic indicators
• Develop Spider plot, Construct Decision Tree
8
Upstream Petroleum Economic Module
Learning Objectives (Part 3&4)
9
PART 1
• Overview of Upstream
Project Evaluation
10
Overview of Upstream
Economic Evaluation
11
Economic evaluation determines project value and generates
profitability indicators …
e n e ed
w
Wh y
to do
c o n omic
e tio n?
a
evalu
To determine “economic health” of the
project for the purpose of :
12
Different types of projects are being evaluated throughout the life of an oil/gas field
Economic
Assumptions
Risk &
Price
Cost Escalation
Sensitivity
Inflation Analysis
Exchange Rate
14
Understanding the evaluation process, requirements and results is important to
facilitate effective communication among team members
Economic
Assumptions
Risk &
Price
Cost Escalation
Sensitivity
Inflation Analysis
Exchange Rate
15
The evaluation requires a set of techno-commercial assumptions which relate to the
development of the asset.
Fiscal &
Commercial
Terms
100%
450
Decision Tree Analysis
90% Aband Fund
80% Resource Distribution 400 Drilling
70% 350 Facility
$ Million MOD
50% Opex
250
40% 200
30%
150 Expenditure Profile
20%
100
10%
50
0%
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 0
Prospective Resources (MMbbl) 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029
Cumulative NCF
1500
400
350
1000
$ Million MOD
P90
300
P50
250 P10 500
'000 bpd
200
No of Year 16
Various parameters under the different phases of the field life are incorporated to
simulate the expected life cycle value of the project
17
The results serve as one of the key consideration for decision making at different
evaluation GATES for the project
Operations Planning,
New business Seismic Acquisition/ De- New business
Feasibility Study Production
opportunities Processing/Interpretati commissionin opportunities
Performance &
on g Plan
Monitoring
Economic Evaluation
Which
development 18
Rigorous evaluation is necessary to support the petroleum investment decision which
is normally made under condition of uncertainty.
PROJECT SCREENING
PROJECT PLANNING
DETAILED DESIGN
PROCUREMENT
FABRICATION
DRILLING
HOOK UP &
COMMISSIONING
1 ST
PRODUCTION
YEARS 19
Tutorial 1 : Technical Data input for Economic Evaluation
Estimate the production and cost parameters for the following conceptual development
of Field ‘Sparco’
• Field ‘Sparco’, located south east of the
country, at 40 m water depth, with Gas
Speculative Resource (SR) of 100 Bscf
• Well test indicate well deliverability of 10
MMscf/d per well for the reservoir around
the area, with expected production decline
after 75% reserves already produced
• Gas sales agreement signed for 5 years for
40 MMscf/d. Processed gas to be evacuated
to sales point at Port Putra (25 km)
• Estimated well cost of $5 Million per well
• Require 1 Central Processing and 1
Wellhead Platforms to fully develop the
resources at a cost of $ 90 million.
• Pipeline cost estimate = $1 MM/km
• Opex is expected to be 4% of cumulative
Capex 20
202020
Tutorial 1 : Technical Data input for Economic Evaluation
Estimate the production and cost parameters for the following conceptual development
of Field ‘Sparco’
No Wells
Economic
Assumptions
Risk &
Price
Cost Escalation
Sensitivity
Inflation Analysis
Exchange Rate
22
Oil Price Forecasts
W o rld C o n s u m p t io n , M M s t b /d
U S $ /b b l ( R e a l T e rm )
ses
a nd Increa
Oil Price Fluctuates Dem
World Production, CPI and Oil Price Trend
120 100
110
100
80
90
80
70 60
60
Average annual
50
increase ~ 14%
40
40 (2004 – 2014)
30 CPI decrea
ses
20
20
10
0 0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2012
2014
2 0 10
Demand driven
Government Regulation for Power Sector
Project Requirement – profits at certain economic threshold, e.g. IRR = 18%
Fuel oil parity – pegged to other fuels, e.g. MFO or a basket of crude prices
(OPEC basket, etc)
Escalation per annum, e.g. percentage tied to CPI or Oil Field Machinery Index.
10
8
6
4
2
-
96 9 97 9 98 9 99 0 00 001 0 02 003 0 04 00 5 0 06 0 07 0 08 0 09 0 10 011 012 013 014
19 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Source : 2015 BP Statistical Review 24
Price Assumptions
25
Real Term and MOD Costs
RT Dollars are converted to MOD dollars • Perception of market factors that will
using ESCALATION affect the cost of goods and services
for the industry.
Costs in MOD dollars are used in
PETRONAS WP&B submission • Driven by supply and demand
26
Real Term and MOD Price
Oil and gas price forecasts can be Real Term (RT) Cost
I = inflation rate
n = years
INFLATION/DEFLATION
Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the ratio of
cost of purchasing a “basket” of consumer
items in that year to the cost of purchasing
the same “basket” in the Base Year.
27
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS WORK-FLOW
Economic
Assumptions
Risk &
Price
Cost Escalation
Sensitivity
Inflation Analysis
Exchange Rate
29
29
We do economic evaluation to determine the economic merit of making an
investment
30
Concepts Of Cash Flow
36
Concept of Net Cash Flow
- Annual basis
37
Concepts Of Cash Flow
Net Cash
Cash Flow
Surplus
Net Cash
Deficit
Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
(-) G&G studies (-) Detailed Design (+) PSC revenues (cost oil, profit oil)
(-) Seismic (-) Construction/Fabrication (-) Opex
(-) Exploration Drilling (-) Hook-up/Commissioning (-) Development Drilling
(-) Development Drilling (-) PSC costs
38
A sample of A Field Life Cycle Project
P r o d u c t u io n (M st b ) / C o st s ( U S $ M M )
Production
Period
100
120
50
eg. Expl. Capex 80
eg. Total Opex 40
18
0 =Y US$ 10 MM
-10 Y Y Y -11.7
Y = US$
Y 50 MM
-12.1 -12.4
Y -12.8
Y
-50
eg. Dev. -80
Capex
= US$ 260 MM
-180
-10
-15
• Unit Finding Cost (UFC) = Exploration Capex / Total Production = $ 10/50MMSTB = $0.20/BBL
• Unit Development Cost (UDC) = Development Capex / Total Production = $260/50MMSTB = $5.20/BBL
• Unit Operating Cost (UOC) = Total Opex / Total Production = $ 50/50MMSTB = $1.00/BBL
• Unit Technical Cost (UTC) = [Total Capex + Total Opex ] / Total Production
39
= UFC + UDC + UOC = $0.20 +$5.20 + $1.00 = $6.40/BBL
Concepts Of Cash Flow
TOTAL
CAPEX
$40,000
Suppose you have been assigned to conduct an economic analysis for a Country
A with relatively high inflation rate. The following costs data have been collected if
we were to develop it today. What would be our technical input data be ?
Platform : US$ 80 Million spread over Year 1 and 2
Variable Opex : US$ 1.50/bbl Real Term (RT) being indexed to local inflation rate
Oil Price : US$ 18/bbl, will increase by 2% p.a. in Real term (RT)
41
TUTORIAL 2 : Generate Technical Input Data
Suppose you have been assigned to conduct an economic analysis for a Country
A with relatively high inflation rate. The following costs data have been collected if
we were to develop it today. What would be our technical input data be ?
42
Concepts Of Cash Flow
Cash In
Royalty
Tax Rate x
Opex
( Cash In
2 Tax – Royalty
Capex – Opex
– Capital
Cash Out 1
Allowance )
3 Net Cash Flow After Tax
Approach :
1. Determine Capital Allowance schedule
2. Calculate Tax
3. Perform Net Cash Flow calculation
Note:
(1) Example from a Royalty-Tax fiscal regime
32
Tax & Capital Allowance
45
Tax & Capital Allowance
46
Tax & Capital Allowance
Note :
Since the production ends in Year 5, the remaining non-depreciated will be capitalised fully.
47
Tax & Capital Allowance
48
Tax & Capital Allowance
40
Straight Line Declining Balance Depletion
31
30
25 25 25 25 25 25 25
22
20 19
18
14
11
10
10
0
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
49
Tax & Capital Allowance
Example:
50
Tax & Capital Allowance
51
TUTORIAL 3 : Calculate Cash Flow
The following offshore oil development project is being proposed. What would be
your approach to address the opportunity ?
Technical Costs :
The following offshore oil development project is being proposed. What would be
your approach to address the opportunity ?
1 Capital Allowance Calc. Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9
Platform
Facilities
Tangible Drilling
Total Capex
CA Year 1 Capex @25%
CA Year 2 Capex @25%
CA Year 3 Capex @25%
CA Year 4 Capex @25%
Total CA
2 Tax Calc. Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9
Cash In
Royalty
Opex
Income Before Tax
Total CA
Drilling costs Expensed
Taxable Income
Tax Paid @20% 53
TUTORIAL 3 : Calculate Cash Flow
The following offshore oil development project is being proposed. What would be
your approach to address the opportunity ?
3 Net Cash Flow Calc. Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9
Cash In
Royalty @25%
Opex
Capex
Tax
Cash Out
Net Cash Flow
54
PART 2
• Analysing Economic
Indicators and Results
55
Different types of petroleum arrangement are being adopted in different parts of the
world.
PETROLEUM AGREEMENTS
CONTRACTUAL
CONCESSION SYSTEMS
SYSTEMS
56
Fiscal Arrangements
57
Fiscal Arrangements
Project
Project
Example: Revenue = $100 Cash Flow
Cost = $ 40
Revenue
Costs
= $40 $40
(less)
Opex
(less)
Net Take Capex
= $60 $60
(equals)
Net Cash
Flow
58
Fiscal Arrangements
Concession Agreement
Costs
= $40 $40
Government
Contractor Take = $30
Take
= $30 $30
Tax
$20 @40%
Concession Agreement
Revenue
(less)
Royalty
(less) (less)
Opex
(less)
Tax
(less) (less)
Capex
Concession Agreement
• Royalty: 10.0%
61
Fiscal Arrangements
Concession Agreement
• Royalty: 12.5%
62
TUTORIAL 4 : Fiscal Terms Computational Logic
Concession Agreement
Provide the logic for Contractors’ Net Cash Flow calculations using the provided input
variables
63
Fiscal Arrangements
Cost Addition
125 Cost Oil Ceiling
100
Costs above ceiling are
75 carried to next period
50
Cost Oil Ullage Costs below ceiling are
25 recovered during the
period
0
1 2 3 4 5 6
65
Fiscal Arrangements
Cost = $40
*Net Govt. Take
Government Take = $51
= 85%
Contractor Take = $ 9
67
Fiscal Arrangements
Revenue
(less)
Royalty
(less) Cost
Recovery
(equals)
Contr. State/Govt.
Profit Share
Profit Share Profit Share
(less) (less)
Opex
(less)
Tax
(less) (less)
Capex
69
Fiscal Arrangements
2011 PROGRESSIVE
PROGRESSIVE
VOLUME
VOLUME
2008 RISK
RISK BASED
BASED
SERVICE
SERVICE
CONTRAC
CONTRAC
1997 To attract
T
T
HP/HT
HP/HT PSC
PSC development of
1994 To attract niche riskier potential
R/C
R/C PSC
PSC players and in brown fields
1985 To attract promote
DW/
DW/ Ultra
Ultra investments in innovation for Provide base
DW
DW PSC
PSC To attract new
1976 operational cost volume for
1985
1985 PSC
PSC
foreign exploration challenging optimization Contractor to
investments. conditions of
Pre-1976 accelerate cost
1976
1976 PSC
PSC Target for big extreme high Increase local
To promote use of recovery
players with pressure and high participation
Concession
Concession Primarily to cost-effective new
Agreement experience in temperature of and develop Progressively
Agreement attract foreign technology in the deep reservoirs
deepwater local capability better profit
Primarily to investment to exploration for
exploration, sharing to
convert the explore for oil higher risk subtle The terms offered
development & Some diversion contractor with
then existing and gas plays. are an
Concession production. in risk/reward development of
concession resources. improvement to
agreements sharing new resources
agreements Profitability-based the Standard R/C
between oil DW/UDW terms structure
into PSCs. Prod. tranche- sliding scale fiscal PSC to ensure
companies and based on water
based fiscal regime hooked onto a deep shelf
State depth
regime. profitability index projects are
Governments. production
with sliding scale commercially
tranches.
sharing of unused viable
cost.
• Gross Production is divided into 3 parts : • Gross Production is divided into 3 parts:
- Royalty : Fixed - Royalty : Fixed
- Cost Oil and Gas : Fixed - Total Cost Tranche : Variable
- Profit Oil and Gas : Fixed - Total Profit Tranche : Variable
• Profit Split : Variable • Profit Split : Variable
• Available Unused Cost is treated as Profit and • Better Profit Split in Unused Cost to Contractor
shared Accordingly. than in Available Profit.
• Profit splits are volume based and triggered by • Profit splits are triggered by R/C Index and the
production rates and fixed cumulative Threshold Volume, THV is variable (incremental)
production volume cap to encourage development to subsequent fields.
71
Fiscal Arrangements
• Royalty: 10.0%
72
Fiscal Arrangements
• Royalty:
5% for production <= 50 MSTB/D
7% for production > 50 MSTB/D
10% for production > 100 MSTB/D
Provide the logic for Contractors’ Net Cash Flow calculations using the provided input
variables
Provide the logic for National Oil Company (NOC)’s Net Cash Flow calculations using the
provided input variables
75
TUTORIAL 7 : Calculate Net Cash Flow under Production Sharing
Calculate National Oil Company (NOC)’s Net Cash Flow using the provided input
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Input Variable Annual Oil Production 2.0 6.0 5.0
Oil Price (US$/bbl) 20.0 Capex 30.0 20.0 -
Royalty Rate 10% Opex 10.0 10.0 10.0
Cost Ceiling Rate 50% Revenue
NOC Profit Rate 70% Royalty
Depreciation Rate 20% Cost Ceiling
Tax Rate 38% Cost Incurred
Cost Bank
Cost Recovered
Unrecovered Cost
Profit
NOC Profit
NOC Entitlment (Cash In)
Income Before Tax
Taxable Income
Tax Paid
Income After Tax
Cash Out
Net Cash Flow After Tax
77
Fiscal Arrangements
Govt.
$50 Profit
Share
Cost = $40
*Net Govt. Take
Government Take = $54
= 90%
Contractor Take = $ 6
77
78
Fiscal Arrangements
Revenue
(less) (equals)
Cost Recovery
Cost State/Govt.
Ceiling Profit Share
Remuneration
(less) (less)
Opex
(less)
Tax
(less) (less)
Capex
80
Fiscal Arrangements
100
10
Ireland
Mauritania
Philippines
Côte dIvoire
Ug
Turkmenistan
Indonesia
1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Government Take, %
Source: Proved Oil Reserves: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013
Government Take %: IHS PEPS, PEC internal assessment PETRONAS E&P Presence
Screening 81
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS WORK-FLOW
Economic
Assumptions
Risk &
Price
Cost Escalation
Sensitivity
Inflation Analysis
Exchange Rate
82
Economic Indicators
83
Economic Indicators
1000
500
0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
-500
-1000
Development Production Abandonment
1500
1000
500
0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
-500
Maximum Cash Sink
= US$ 860 Million
-1000
1500
1000
500
0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
-500
Breakeven
= in year 2010
-1000
1000
Payback period
500 = 7 years
0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
-500
Breakeven in year 2010
-1000
1500
1000
500
0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 01 01 02 02 02 02
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Economic
2 2 2 Limit2 2 2
-500 = in year 2021
-1000
500
0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
-500
Economic Limit in 2021
-1000
1500
1000
500
0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
-500
-1000
1500
1000
PIR = US$ 1,801 Million = 1.9
Total Investment US$ 950 Million
= US$ 950 Million
500
0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
-500
-1000
92
Time Value of Money
$1 MM $1 MM $1 MM
Now Future
1st year 6th year nth year
Uncertain More Uncertain
• What is the equivalent today’s value of the money in the future? Because of the
uncertainties, you discount the future value.
$1 MM $0.8 MM $0.5 MM
Now Future
1st year 6th year nth year
Uncertain More Uncertain
93
Time Value of Money
Present
Value (RT) 94
Finding the Future Value - Compounding
FV = PV x (1 + i)n
FV = Future Value
PV = Present Value
i = compound rate
n = time period
(1+i) = compounding factor
n
Example :
Cost of drilling a well in 2009 is $15 million. We expect cost to escalate at 5% p.a for the next 10
year period. If we plan to drill the well in 2013, what would be the expected cost ?
95
Through discounting, the money spent and received at different time are valued
consistently
NCF n
NPV t
(1i)
i t
t 0
Net Cash Flow (NCF) -250.0 50.0 100.0 100.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 180.0
Discount Factor @ 10%1.000 1.100 1.210 1.331 1.464 1.611 1.772
The forecasted Consumer Price Index is around 3% per year. Your company’s Cost
of Capital is at 10%. What is the Present Value of the following Net Cash Flow ?
Discount Rate @ 3%
98
Economic Indicators
1500
Net-Present-Value, US$ MM
-500
Discount Rate, %
1500
Net-Present-Value, US$ MM
500
NPV@23% = 0
0
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
-500
Discount Rate, %
100
NPV and IRR
Both indicators apply time value money on the annual net cash flows forecast.
Net Present Value
describes the fair value of a project
indicates whether the project creates value (positive NPV) or erodes value (negative
NPV)
a project which gives NPV@10% of $50 million tells us that by investing in the project,
it will give us additional value of $50 million as compared to investing our money in
some alternative scheme which provide a return of 10%.
Internal Rate of Return
not a measure of value
a handy indicator for project screening against company hurdle rate; for example, if the
hurdle rate is 15%, any project with IRR < 15% should be excluded from the portfolio.
if the IRR of a particular project is greater than the rate of return which can be obtained
in comparable alternative investments, then the project theoretically should be
undertaken.
101
IRR and Hurdle Rate
Hurdle Rate is …
company specific
usually is a function of the company’s weighted average cost of capital (WACC)
plus the premium the company sets to cater for risks.
IRR for project should be greater than the company hurdle rate for the project to considered
economic.
‘Hurdle
Rate’ Project Value
Return Creation
f
‘Hurdle
Weighted ‘Risk Rate’
Average Cost of Premium’
Capital (WACC)
Risk
Premium
Cost of capital (funds) is a Management’s
function of prerogative to include risk
– cost of debt (interest on
premium from country and
loan)
– cost of equity (dividends
other perceived risks WACC
paid to shareholders)
102
Profit-to-Investment Ratio (PIR)
o A measure of investment efficiency i.e. amount Investment opportunity may create value
of present value profit per dollar of investment for the company if it generates PIR
i.e. Capex greater than company’s minimum
o Normally, quoted on discounted basis at certain acceptable PIR
rates, to reflect time value of money and the
pattern of Net Cash Flow
PIR @ 0% = 0.76
PIR @ 10% = 0.30
103
Other indicators which could be derived from net cash flow
2000
1st Prod.
2006 4 Economic Life = 15 years
1500
Cash Flow (US$MM)
Payback
3 period
7 years
1000
1st Devt. Invest.
2003
500 5 Economic Limit in year 2021
Total Investment
US$ 950 Million
0
2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 2023
-500
Annual NCF
2 Breakeven in year 2010 Cum NCF
-1000
1 Maximum Cash Sink US$950 Million
103
TUTORIAL 11 : Calculate Economic Indicators
A project requires US$ 260 Million of total Investment, which excludes exploration Sunk
Cost of US$ 32 MM. First oil is expected to be in year 4. Below is the forecasted annual
Net cash Flow for your assessment. Calculate the economic indicators for the project life
at January Year 3.
105
TUTORIAL 12 : Economic Indicators
Calculate the economic indicators for the previous project for look
forward Year 3. Sunk cost of US$ 32 Million in year 1 is now excluded.
106
Economic Indicators
107
Economic Indicators
NPV Discounted at
IRR
Option Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 0% 10% 25%
NCF A -100 - - - 200 100 37 -18 20.0%
NCF B -1000 350 350 350 350 400 110 -173 15.0%
WACC of 10%
500
Option A
400 Option B
Option B
300
US$ 110 MM
Net-Present-Value
200
Option A
100 US$ 37 MM
0
-1000% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
Observation !
-200
Option B
-300 15% IRR : Option A > Option B
But
-400
NPV@10% : Option A < Option B
-500 Option A
20%
Discount Rate, %
108
Economic Indicators
NPV Discounted at
IRR
Option Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 0% 10% 25%
NCF A -100 - - - 200 100 37 -18 20.0%
NCF B -1000 350 350 350 350 400 110 -173 15.0%
200
Option A
Conclusion !
100 US$ 37 MM
0 Select Option B since the
-1000% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
incremental costs of US$
900 will result in IRR of
-200 14.1%
Option B
-300 15%
-400
-500 Option A
20%
Discount Rate, %
109
Economic Analysis Work-flow
Economic
Assumptions
Risk &
Price
Cost Escalation
Sensitivity
Inflation Analysis
Exchange Rate
110
Risks and uncertainty in oil and gas investment
1500
Exploration
1250
1000
750
N e t C a s h F lo w
Appraisal
500
250
Development -250
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
-500
Annua l NCF
-750
Cum NCF
-1000
Production
Ye a r
Source:
(1) EPSS, ‘Risk White Paper’, August 2001 Country Risk
• uncertainty in location
• E.g. political risk, economic risk, regulatory risk
• Ad Hoc Methods
– Discount Rate Adjustment
– Capital at Risk
– Time Risk and Capital Recovery
• Sensitivity Analysis
– Analysis of One Variable
– Analysis of More than One
Variable
– Range Approach
112
Ad Hoc Methods
To increase the discount rate for capital “at risk”, or to favour a short payback period in risky
situations.
Three (3) types of commonly used are :
a. Discount Rate adjustment
To increase the test discount rate for capital projects which are considered to be
risky. This suggest that capital invested in an uncertain project is required to yield a
higher margin of profit than capital invested safely.
b. Capital At Risk
The amount of capital at risk (or the sunk cost) is that proportion of the initial
investment which would not be recovered in the event of the disposal of fixed
assets. Once the capital has been proportioned as “safe” or “at risk” the project can
be compared with company criteria. The decision can consequently be taken as to
whether the rate of return justifies the risk.
c. Time risk and Capital Recovery
Certain types of risk are based on time criteria alone, namely those which lead to the
premature termination of a project i.e. political risk, the danger of nationalization or
revolution. Payback might therefore be useful criterion to include in the overall
assessment of investment projects.
113
Risk & Sensitivity Analysis
IRR or NPV
between change in key project
variables and measure of value. 25
d) Opex 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200
• Start with “Base Case” and change NPV@10%
one variable at a time keeping all
other assumption at the Base Case
• The longer the bar is, whether to the
left or right from the Base case, the
more sensitive the parameter would
be.
115
Decision Tree Analysis
116
Decision Tree Analysis
117
Decision Tree Analysis
• Weighs risk capital and chance of losing An Example of Decision Tree Analysis
it against potential rewards and the
EMV=10
probability of achieving that rewards discovery NPV @10% = 50
0.2
Drill
EMV=2 prospect
( Probability of Success * Net Value Gain )
0.8
EMV = Less dry NPV @10% = (10)
( Probability of Failure * Net Value Loss ) EMV=(8)
118
Decision Tree Analysis
EMV
20
different recommendation
10
0
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
-10
-20
Probability of Success
119
PART 3 & 4
120
Economic Modeling – A Few Tips!
121
Getting Started : Information Required
Volumetrics
• SR for prospects and
corresponding probability of
exploration success
• Reserves for fields
Project Parameters
• First year of production
• Oil production profile, gas
demand forecast and matching
gas delivery rates from fields Fiscal & Economic Model
Economic Analysis & Results
Exploration Costs
• G&G costs Assumptions
• Number of wells, well cost,
and timing of exploration and
appraisal costs
Development Costs
• Development scenarios
• Development cost detailed by Fiscal & Economic Modeling
General Assumptions
fixed structure, facilities, • Oil price, gas price, • Fiscal Contract (PSC, Concession,
pipeline, etc. • Cost and price escalations, Service Agreement)
• Development drilling cost • Tax law
• Currency exchange rate,
• Typical operating cost • Joint Operating Agreement
• Required hurdle rate
• Phasing of each type of • Farm-out offer
development capex • PCSB equity share
• Funding arrangement
122
Three (3) - Fundamental Rules !
1. “The input data must reflect the project parameters of the respective
scenario”
2. “The calculation must reflect what stated in the contract”
3. “The input and the calculation must be correctly linked”
122
CASE STUDY
BENIN BLOCK 4
ECONOMICS MODELING
123
Economics Basis and Results Snapshot
5 6
3
124
1 Conversion of Real Terms (RT) to Money-of-Day (MOD)
125
2 Profit Calculation
126
3 Cost Recovery Calculation
127
4 Costs Allocation for Carry provisions
128
5 Contractor and Government NCF Calculation
129
6 Profitability Indicators Calculation
2000
7 PIR 6 Ultimate Cash Surplus
Net-Present-Value, US$ MM
1500
1st Production
4Economic Life
Cash Flow (US$MM)
0 0 NPV@23% = 0
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
An nu
2 Breakeven in year al NC F -500
-
1 Maximum Cash Sink Discount Rate, %
130
Thank You for
Your Attention