Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
Ekonomi di Indonesia
Dr. A.Prasetyantoko
Universitas Atma Jaya, Jakarta
Isu Pokok
Pertanian dianggap primitif tidak
dikembangkan (added value rendah)
Pilihan strategi: Industrialisasi &
“Finansialisasi”
Dampak: Virtualisasi (decoupling dengan
sektor riil)
Tiga pilar
World-level globalization
National deregulation (financial
liberalization Pakto 88)
Firm innovation (derivative products)
Pokok Bahasan
Wacana teoritis
Empiris-deskriptif
Anti-Keynesian
Kompromi Keynesian
Fullemployment
Social welfare protection
Universal access to education and
health care
Demand side economy
Peran IFIs
Virtualisasi ekonomi :
sektorriil < sektor finansial
Tradable sector < non-tradable sector
Solusi:
Stimulus fiskal
Social spending
Outstanding Investment Credit of Commercial Banks in Foreign
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Feb.
Dec.
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Tradable Nontradable
0,3 Sector 6
0,2 Sector 7
0,1 Sector 9
0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
FDI Openess
300
150 Japan
100 Korsel
50 Malaysia
Philippines
0
Vietnam
97
02
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
98
99
00
01
03
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
350
300 Hong Kong
250 India
200 Indonesia
in percent
150 Japan
Korsel
100
Malaysia
50
Philippines
0
Vietnam
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
19
19
19
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
80
70
60
50
in percent
FDI Openness
40
Trade Openness
30
20
10
0
1992
1996
2001
2002
2003
1990
1991
1993
1994
1995
1997
1998
1999
2000
2004
2005
Calculation based on database of Asia Regional Integration Center (ADB)
Persoalan klasik di sektor riil
Indonesia now has the slowest business start-up
time of any country in Asia
Singapore 5
Days to Start a Business
Mongolia 20
Malaysia 24
Thailand 33
China 35
Vietnam 50
Philippines 58
Cambodia 86
Laos 103
Indonesia 105
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Macroeconomic Instability 53
66
Transportation 42
49
Corruption Local Government 48
52
Electricity 36
42
Legal System&Conflict Resolution 39
41
Tax rate 38
39
Labor skill & Education 39
38
Tax Administration 38
39
Crime 27
29
License & Permits Central Government 29
29
mid-2007
Monopoly Practices 28
28
Financial Access 23
28
Telecommunication 21
21
Land Procurement 16
20
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
3000
2500
2000
Level - point
1500
1000
500
0
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jul.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
180000
160000
140000
120000
million of shares
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
-20000 Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. Jul.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
140000
120000
Billion of Rp (miliar)
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
4000 IHSG
PERTANIAN
3500
PERTAMBANGAN
3000
INDUSTRI DASAR DAN
2500 KIMIA
ANEKA INDUSTRI
2000 25 bps 75 bps
50 bps
INDUSTRI BARANG
1500 25 bps KONSUMSI
50 bps
PROPERTI DAN REAL
1000 ESTAT
INFRASTRUKTUR, UTILITAS,
500 DAN TRANSPORTASI
KEUANGAN
0 PERDAGANGAN, JASA,
DAN INVESTASI
13/11
26/11
30/07
10/08
24/08
06/09
19/09
02/10
18/10
31/10
07/12
26/12
14/01
25/01
11/02
22/02
MANUFAKTUR
LQ45
JII
Based on BEI’s database
PAPAN UTAMA
Local Currency Government Benchmark Yields
Source: Reuters
Benchmark Yields - 2yrs and 10yrs LCY Bonds