Synthetic (distance decay, gravity, and radiation) models

and their parameters estimation based on census or CDR data

and inter-TAZ distance.
 Distance decay model.

tripsij = α∙dist nij

The model
performs Performance
well for small measures:
size TAZs AAE, STD, R, R2
(1-50 trips).

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The Gravity Distribution Model
• Distribution models of a different kind have been developed to assist
in forecasting future trip patterns when important changes in the
network take place. They start from assumptions about group trip
making behavior and the way this is influenced by external factors
such as total trip ends and distance travelled.
• The best known of these models is the gravity model, originally
generated from an analogy with Newton’s gravitational law.
• These models estimate trips for each cell in the matrix without
directly using the observed trip pattern; therefore they are sometimes
called synthetic as opposed to growth factor models.

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Gravity model. Simplest formulation. Casey (1955)

• In its simplest formulation the gravity model has the following functional form:
Tij = α Pi Pj / d 2ij

where Pi and Pj are the populations of the towns of origin and destination, dij is
the distance between i and j, and α is a proportionality factor (with units
trips·distance2/population2).
• This was soon considered to be too simplistic an analogy with the gravitational
law and early improvements included the use of total trip ends (Oi and Dj)
instead of total populations, and a parameter n for calibration as the power for
dij. This new parameter was not restricted to being an integer and different
studies estimated values between 0.6 and 3.5.
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Gravity model. Further generalizations.
• The model was further generalized by assuming that the effect of distance or
‘separation’ could be modelled better by a decreasing function, to be specified, of
the distance (time) or travel cost between the zones. This can be written as:
Tij = α Oi Dj f (cij)
where f (cij) is a generalized function of the travel costs with one or more parameters
for calibration. This function often receives the name of ‘deterrence function’
because it represents the disincentive to travel as distance (time) or cost increases.
Popular versions for this function are:
f (cij) = exp(−βcij) exponential function
f (cij) = c^−nij power function
f (cij) = c^−nij exp(−βcij) combined function
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Different deterrence functions

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Gravity model fitting parameters calculation algorithm

1) Calculate tripsij* = tripsij / (Pi*Pj ) OR tripsij* = tripsij / (Oi*Dj )

2) Fit tripsij* ~ f (distij ) with one of the deterrence functions
and get α and n or/and β
3) Validate results (for example, for power deterrence function):
a) tripsij = α Pi Pj distij –n
b) Calculate AAE, STD, R, and R2

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Radiation model
• The model is parameter-free, i.e. it does not require regression analysis or fit on
existing data, where the weight of the edge connecting a node i with a node j is
defined by the formula:

• with Ni and Nj being the populations of origin and destination, Pij the total
population living between location i and location j (computed as the total
population living in a circle of radius rij centered at i, excluding the populations of
origin and destination locations), and the total number of commuters daily

leaving their home in location i.

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Reasons for being implemented as an automatic task in Haboob

• 2630 × 2630 rows × 24 hours × 7 week days + averaging over time

• Break down by:
• trip purpose (HW, HO etc.)
• mode of transport
• person type (car and non-car owners etc.)
• TAZ, statistical area, city etc.
• TBD separately for OD pair sizes: 1-50, >50, all
• Repeated validations

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Action Items
• Validations: 1-50 performances based on all and >50 extrapolation
• TAZ based Production-Attraction matrix costs

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Auxiliary slides
The classical version of the doubly constrained gravity model

The need to ensure that the restrictions (5.1) are met requires
replacing the single proportionality factor α by two sets of balancing
factors Ai and Bj as in the Furness model, yielding:
Tij = Ai Oi Bj Dj f (cij) (5.14)
In a similar vein one can again subsume Oi and Dj into these factors and
rewrite the model as:
Tij = aibj f (cij) (5.15)
The expression in (5.14) or (5.15) is the classical version of the doubly
constrained gravity model.

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A general form of a two-dimensional trip matrix

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The sum of the trips in a row should equal the total number of trips emanating from
that zone; the sum of the trips in a column should correspond to the number of trips
attracted to that zone. These conditions can be written as:

If reliable information is available to estimate both Oi and Dj then the model must
satisfy both conditions; in this case the model is said to be doubly constrained. In some
cases there will be information only about one of these constraints, for example to
estimate all the Oi’s, and therefore the model will be said to be singly constrained. Thus
a model can be origin or production constrained if the Oi’s, are available, or destination
or attraction constrained if the Dj’s are at hand.
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