10 Trends Affecting the

Future of Higher
Education
Ralph Wolff
President and Executive Director
Senior College Commission, WASC
World Future Society
Overview of U.S. Higher Education
 Greatest diversity of institutions in the world
 Long considered the best system in the world
 Major innovations – independent boards of
trustees, community colleges, open access
 Massification since Korean War

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 Mission Differentiation
 Research
 Liberal arts
 Comprehensive universities
 Community colleges
 Faith-based
 Specialized/single purpose

“One solution never fits all.”

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 Institutions
Public 4-year institutions 643
Public 2-year institutions 1,045
Private 4-year institutions, nonprofit 1,533
Private 4-year institutions, for-profit 453
Private 2-year institutions, nonprofit 107
Private 2-year institutions, for-profit 533
Total 4,314

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 Where Students Go
Public 4-year institutions 6,955,013 (39%)
Public 2-year institutions 6,225,120 (35%)
Private 4-year institutions 4,285,317 (24%)
Private 2-year institutions 293,420 (1%)
Total 17,758,870

81% of all freshmen in the fall of 2006 who had

graduated from high school in the previous year
attended colleges in their home states.
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 Demographics
Women 57.3%
Full-time 61.7%
Minority 31.5%
Foreign 3.4%

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 1. Financial Meltdown
At a time of increased need for higher education:
 Public funding cuts

 Endowment decline > 20%

 Crunch on lines of credit

 Limits on tuition increases at private

institutions
 Increases at public universities

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 3-5 Year Setting
 Every state will have a structural deficit
 Pell increases do not make up differences
 $50 billion stimulus money for higher
education is one time, focused
 Student debt load increasing
 Student work hours increasing

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 Short –Medium Term
Consequences
 Immediate response is to freeze and cut, not
restructure
 Will shift most public supported institutions to
“public assisted”
 Lead to search for new sources of revenue --
increased business partnerships, joint ventures
 Need for new models – are they out there?

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 2. President Obama’s Priorities
 Highest proportion of college graduates in the
world by 2020 (40 % → 60%)
 National high school exit standards
 Linked to college readiness standards
 $15 billion community college initiative
 $50 million for free online courses
 Centers to develop and share best practices

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 Short – Medium Term Impact
 Shift toward vocational and technical
education/jobs
 Partnering with major Gates and Lumina
Foundation Initiatives
 Recognition that community colleges are
today what high schools were 30 years ago
 Increased access through open admissions
 Increased participation of underrepresented
groups
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3. Influence of For Profits and Market
Capital
 Fastest growing sector
 Increasing mergers, acquisitions
 Conversion of nonprofit universities
 Joint ventures with mainline institutions
 Growth, scalability and high profitability of
proprietary systems
 Increasing connections with industry – e.g.,
$500 million BP grant to Berkeley
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4. Technology and Distance Education
 > 2 million students
 Growing rapidly, increasing competition
 Hybrid programs most effective
 Greatest number within traditional settings
 High tech does not always mean high
enrollment
 Can be centers of high profit
 Continuing Congressional concerns

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 5. Internationalization
 Lincoln Commission – value to US students of
study abroad
 Increase in international students in US
 Increased competition here and abroad for best
international students
 Infusion of international perspectives -- a
course or a holistic perspective?

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 6. Globalization
 International recognition of importance of higher
education
 Major investments in local systems
 Bologna Process will have significant impact over time
 Cross-border offerings increasing – Australian medical
school opening in US; new programs and institutions
in China, former Soviet bloc, Middle East
 Creation of new partnerships, joint degrees, dual
degrees

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 7. Quality Assurance and
Accountability
 Completion rates
 Placement rates
 Learning results
 Costs
 Debt load
 Executive compensation
 Board accountability

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 Has Quality Declined?
 NAAL: Performance of college graduates and those with
graduate degrees 1992 to 2003:
-- % college graduates proficient in English fell from 40% to
31%
-- % Proficient in prose literacy fell from 51% to 41%
 National Survey of America’s College Students: significant
numbers of college grads (20-30%) have only basic quantitative
skills
 No significant differences between public and private
institutions
 In 2 year schools, no significant difference based on academic or
technical curricula
 Employers: college grads lack skills for the workplace
(AAC&U surveys)

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 6 Year Graduation Rates at 4-year
Institutions

All 56.4%
Men 53.0%
Women 59.2%

Visit www.edtrust.org – College Results Online

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 Global Competitiveness
 Drop in high school graduation rates (77.5%)
 Dropped from 1st to 7th in college participation
rates of 18-24 year olds
 2d for 35-64 yr. olds; 10th for 25-34
 15th in completion rates
 Lower than OECD average for science and
math literacy for 15 yr. olds (PISA scores)

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 8. Sustainability and the
University
 President’s Climate Commitment
 Involvement of professional associations
 Moving from facilities to curriculum to institutionalization
 Major area of scientific research
 Need equal work in social and behavioral sciences, arts
and humanities for the change in consciousness needed

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9. 21st Century Learning Competencies

“We are responsible for preparing our students

to address problems we cannot foresee with
knowledge that has not yet been developed
using technology not yet invented.”

“The problems we have cannot be solved at the same

level of thinking at which we created them.” Albert
Einstein

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Is Higher Education Primarily for
Economic Gain?

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Or Developing the Nation’s Talent
and Creativity?

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 Changing Character of Knowledge
 Sources of Knowledge
education institution → everywhere
(deinstitutionalized learning)
 Understanding of Knowledge
static → dynamic (openness to new knowledge,
ability to “unlearn”)
 Structure of Knowledge
compartmental → holistic
 Nature of Knowledge
external authority → personal and contextual

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 21 Century Skills
st

Problem identification or articulation 1 9

Ability to identify new patterns of behavior or new 2 3
combinations of actions
Integration of knowledge across different disciplines 3 2

Ability to originate new ideas 4 6

Comfort with notion of ‘no right answer’ 5 11
Fundamental curiosity 6 10
Originality and inventiveness in work 7 4
Problem solving 8 1

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 10. New Forms of Institutions
 Institutional consolidations/closures
 “Cloud” programs across institutions
 The “partnering” university
 Privatized public universities
 Credit banks
 Transnational universities

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What Is On Your List?

Ralph Wolff
rwolff@wascsenior.org

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