Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
Analysis
Key Step in Market & Demand Analysis
and Their Inter-relationship
Collection of Demand
Secondary Forecasting
Information
Characterization of
Situational
the Market
Analysis and
Specifications of
Objectives
Market Planning
Conduct of
Market Survey
SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS AND
SPECIFICATIONS OF OBJECTIVES
Get a “feel” for the relationship between the product and it’s
market, the project analyst may informally talk to customers,
competitors, middlemen and other in the industry.
Look at the experience of the company to learn about the
purchasing power of customer, action & strategies of competitors.
The objectives of market & Demand analysis, to answer
the following question : (for air coolers)
Who are the buyers of air cooler?
What is the total current demand for air coolers?
What price will the customer be willing to pay for the improved
air cooler.
What price & warranty will ensure its acceptance?
What are the prospects of immediate sales? etc.
Collection of Secondary Information
7
General Sources of Secondary information
Census of India
National sample survey reports
Plan reports
Statistical abstract of Indian Union
India year book
Statistical year book
Economic survey
Guidelines to Industries
Annual survey of industries
Conduct of Market Survey
The market survey may be a census survey or a sample
survey.
Census survey are employed principally for intermediate
goods & investment goods when such goods are used by a
small number of firms.
• Steps in a Sample Survey
– Define the Target Population
– Select the Sampling Scheme and Sample Size
– Develop the Questionnaire
– Recruit and Train the Field Investigators
– Obtain Information as Per the Questionnaire from
the Sample of Respondents
– Scrutinizes the Information Gathered
8
– Analyze and interpret the Information
Conduct of Market Survey
Some Problems:
– Heterogeneity of the Country
– Multiplicity of the Languages
– Design of Questionnaire
7
Characterization of the Market
Effective Demand in the Past and Present
Production + Imports – Exports – Change in stock level
Breakdown of Demand
– Nature of Product
– Consumer Groups
– Geographical Division
Price
Methods of Distribution and Sales Promotion
Consumers
Supply and Competition
Government Policy
8
Forecasting
Predicting the future
Qualitative forecast methods
– subjective
Quantitative forecast methods
– based on mathematical formulas
Depend on
– time frame
– demand behavior
– causes of behavior
Demand Forecasting
Qualitative Methods
– These methods rely essentially on the judgment
of experts to translate qualitative information into
quantitative estimates
– Used to generate forecasts if historical data are
not available (e.g., introduction of new product)
– The important qualitative methods are:
• Jury of Executive Method
• Delphi Method
10
Jury of Executive Opinion Method
Rationale
– Upper-level management has best information on latest
product developments and future product launches
Approach
– Small group of upper-level managers collectively develop
forecasts – Opinion of Group
Main advantages
– Combine knowledge and expertise from various
functional areas
– People who have best information on future
developments generate the forecasts
11
Jury of Executive Opinion Method
Main drawbacks
– Expensive
– No individual responsibility for forecast quality
– Risk that few people dominate the group
– Subjective
– Reliability is questionable
Typical applications
– Short-term and medium-term demand forecasting
12
Delphi Method
Rationale
13
Delphi Method
Approach
Coordinator No
Coordinator
sends updated Consensus Yes
14
Delphi Method
Main advantages
– Generate consensus
– Can forecast long-term trend without availability of
historical data
Main drawbacks
– Slow process
– Experts are not accountable for their responses
– Little evidence that reliable long-term forecasts can be
generated with Delphi or other methods
Typical application
– Long-term forecasting
– Technology forecasting
15
Time Series Projection
Methods
• These methods generate forecasts on the basis of an
analysis of the historical time series.
• Assume that what has occurred in the past will
continue to occur in the future
•Relate the forecast to only one factor - time The
important time series projection methods are:
– Trend Projection Method
– Moving Average Method
16
Trend Projection Method
Advantages
• It uses all observations
• The straight line is derived by statistical procedure
• A measure of goodness fit is available
Disadvantages
• More complicated
• The results are valid only when certain conditions are
satisfied
17
Moving Average
Naive forecast
– demand in current period is used as next period’s forecast
Simple moving average
– uses average demand for a fixed sequence of periods
– stable demand with no pronounced behavioral patterns
Weighted moving average
– weights are assigned to most recent data
According to the moving average method
St + S t – 1 +…+ S t – n +1
Ft + 1 =
n
where Ft + 1 = forecast for the next period
St = sales for the current period
n = period over which 18
12-22
Weighted Moving Average
average
method to where
more closely Wi = the weight for period i,
reflect data between 0 and 100
percent
fluctuations
W = 1.00
i
19
12-23
Weighted Moving Average Example
= 103.4 orders
20
12-24
Causal Methods
21
Chain Ratio Methods
Market Potential for heated coats in the U.S.:
– Population (U) = 280,000,000
– Proportion of U that are age over 16 (A) = 75%
– Proportion of A that are men (M) = 50%
– Proportion of M that have incomes over Rs65k (I) =
50%
– Proportion of I that live in cold states (C) = 50%
– Proportion of C that ski regularly (S) = 10%
– Proportion of S that are fashion conscious (F) = 30%
– Proportion of F that are early adopters (E) = 10%
– Average number of ski coats purchased per year (Y) = .5
coats
– Average price per coat (P) = Rs 200
22
Chain Ratio Methods
Market Potential for heated coats in the
U.S.:
Market Sales Potential =
UxAx MxI x Cx Sx Fx Ex Y
= 280 Million x 0.75 x 0.50 x 0.50 x 0.50 x 0.10 x
0.30 x 0.10 x200
= Rs7.88 Million
23
Consumption Level Method
24
Consumption Level Method
30
Coping With Uncertainties
Conduct analysis with data based on uniform
and standard definitions.
Ignore the abnormal or out-of-ordinary
observations.
Critically evaluate the assumptions
Adjust the projections.
Monitor the environment.
Consider likely alternative scenarios.
Conduct sensitivity analysis
31
Market planning
Current marketing situation
- Market, Competition, Distribution,
Opportunity and issue analysis - SWOT
Objectives- Break even, % market share…
Marketing strategy- target segment,
positioning, 4 Ps
Action program- Quarter 1, Q2,
Q3….
32