Application of Forecast-based Production Plan in

Reducing Production Deviation

at GMB Company
Abaigar, Gemie Anne Cathleen L.
Gutierrez, John Patrick M.
Hernandez, Renz Carlo Jhei I.
Jareño, Mariah Pauline L.
Quizon, Ella Patricia E.
BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

od’s
ore
lessings 2
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

Standard Deviation

167 UNITS 1264 UNITS

Armband Round Rags

16 UNITS 7 UNITS
Leg Cover Welding Apron

3
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

4
 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
▰ To identify the current production of all the products
based on:
1.1 Monthly Demand
1.2 Availability of Resources (Manpower, Machine,
Material)
1.3 Standard time of all products
▰ To identify demand forecasting models based on
▻ Accuracy of Forecast
▻ Lowest Standard Deviation incurred 5
 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
▰ To validate the identified demand forecasting model
using the different validation techniques namely;
a) Mean Squared Error (MSE)
b) Mean Absolute Error (MAE)
c) Symmetrical Mean Absolute Percentage Error
(MAPE)
▰ To develop an effective operational production plan with
validation, capacity planning, production levelling and
master production schedule to standardize the
production at GMB 6
 Chapter II

METHODOLOGY
OPERATIONAL FRAMEWORK

8
 Monthly Demand

Month Arm Band Round Rags Leg Cover Welding Apron

January 309 1500 31 18

February 543 1289 48 28
March 264 1678 37 15
April 457 3500 39 25
May 459 0 27 30
June 550 0 36 25
July 243 2000 24 11
August 237 1175 60 31
September 540 1273 78 20
October 484 2433 27 14
November 333 2000 53 8
December 0 4389 41 17
Standard
167 1264 16 7
Deviation
9
 Forecasted Demand for Arm Band

Average
Exponential Modified
Month Actual Croston SyBo
Smoothing Croston
Demand
January 309 278 368 368 368
February 543 287 814 733 502
March 264 364 537 483 512
April 457 334 558 503 526
May 459 371 556 500 535
June 550 397 587 529 550
July 243 443 473 426 527
August 237 383 399 359 488
September 540 339 460 414 480
October 484 399 477 429 479
November 333 425 436 392 466
December 0 397 436 392 456

Standard
167 51 118 102 48
Deviation 10
 Forecasted Demand for Round Rags

Average
Exponential Modified
Month Actual Croston SyBo
Smoothing Croston
Demand
January 1500 2124 1770 2124 2124
February 1289 1937 1934 1741 2067
March 1678 1742 2151 1936 2092
April 3500 1723 3262 2936 2443
May 0 2256 3262 2936 2689
June 0 1579 3262 2936 2861
July 2000 1106 1731 1558 2522
August 1175 1374 1565 1408 2234
September 1273 1314 1478 1330 2007
October 2433 1302 1767 1590 1935
November 2000 1641 1838 1654 1905
December 4389 1749 2606 2346 2115

Standard
1264 345 692 610 308
Deviation 11
 Forecasted Demand for Leg Cover

Average
Exponential Modified
Month Actual Croston SyBo
Smoothing Croston
Demand
January 31 45 42 42 42
February 48 41 73 65 51
March 37 43 59 53 53
April 39 41 54 49 54
May 27 41 45 41 51
June 36 37 44 40 49
July 24 36 38 34 45
August 60 33 47 43 46
September 78 41 60 54 50
October 27 52 50 45 49
November 53 45 52 46 50
December 41 47 49 44 49

Standard
16 5 9 8 3
Deviation 12
 Forecasted Demand for Welding Apron

Average
Exponential Modified
Month Actual Croston SyBo
Smoothing Croston
Demand
January 18 16 20 20 19
February 28 17 42 38 26
March 15 20 29 26 27
April 25 19 30 27 28
May 30 21 33 29 29
June 25 23 31 28 30
July 11 24 25 22 28
August 31 20 28 25 28
September 20 23 26 23 27
October 14 22 22 20 25
November 8 20 18 16 23
December 17 16 18 16 21

Standard
7 3 7 6 3
Deviation 13
 Summary of Forecast

Exponential Croston Modified

Actual Demand SyBo
Smoothing Method Croston
Arm Band 167 51 118 102 48
MAE 156 163 132 147
MAPE 37% 33% 30% 30%
MSE 27% 18% 16% 17%
Round Rags 1264 345 692 610 308
MAE 1018 1032 907 1134
MAPE 61% 36% 43% 49%
MSE 59% 24% 30% 36%
Leg Cover 16 5 9 8 3
MAE 13 15 13 15
MAPE 33% 29% 27% 31%
MSE 18% 10% 9% 12%
Welding Apron 7 3 7 6 3
MAE 7 7 13 6
MAPE 34% 28% 24% 27%
MSE 16% 11% 8% 12%

14
 Capacity Analysis

Product

Welding
Round Rags Arm Band Leg Cover
Apron

Observed Time 49.9 418.81 601.75 2236.473

Standard Time 65.91 553.21 794.85 2954.16

Capacity per
437 52 36 10
module

For 5 workers 2185 260 181 49

Capacity per
10924 1302 906 244
Week
Capacity per
43694 5206 3623 975
month 15
Master Production Schedule

16
Master Production Plan Worksheet

17
 Chapter IV.

Based on the company’s historical data,

Forecast System
Standard Capacity
Production Plan

18
 Conclusion

1. To determine the current production of all the products

based on monthly demand, availability of resources and
standard time of all products.

Hours per Day Days per

week 19
 Conclusion

2. To identify demand forecasting models based on

accuracy of forecast and lowest standard deviation
incurred.
Exponential
Smoothing
Croston
Method SyBo Method
Modified
Croston

20
 Conclusion

3. To validate the identified demand forecasting model

using different validation techniques.

MSE MAE MAPE

21
 Conclusion

4. To develop an effective operational production plan

with validation, capacity planning, production levelling,
and Master Production Schedule to standardize the
production at GMB.

22
 Conclusion

5. To simulate the operational production plan.

23
Having this production plan/
system, the enterprise could
accommodate and cater more
customers without neglecting
their major customer which is
Yamaha Motors, Philippines.

24
Recommendation

▰ For the enterprise

▰ For future researchers

25
THANK YOU SO MUCH!

26
QUESTION &
ANSWER

27
“ Quotations are
commonly printed as a
means of inspiration and
to invoke philosophical
thoughts from the
reader.

28
BIG CONCEPT
Bring the attention of your
audience over a key concept using
icons or illustrations
29
YOU CAN ALSO SPLIT YOUR CONTENT

White Black
Is the color of milk and Is the color of coal,
fresh snow, the color ebony, and of outer
produced by the space. It is the darkest
combination of all the color, the result of the
colors of the visible absence of or complete
spectrum. absorption of light.

30
IN TWO OR THREE COLUMNS

Yellow Blue Red

Is the color of Is the colour of Is the color of
gold, butter and the clear sky and blood, and
ripe lemons. In the deep sea. It is because of this it
the spectrum of located between has historically
visible light, violet and green been associated
yellow is found on the optical with sacrifice,
between green spectrum. danger and
and orange. courage.

31
A PICTURE IS WORTH A THOUSAND WORDS

A complex idea can be

conveyed with just a
single still image,
namely making it
possible to absorb
large amounts of data
quickly.

32
USE CHARTS TO EXPLAIN YOUR IDEAS

White Gray Black

33
AND TABLES TO COMPARE DATA

A B C

Yellow 10 20 7

Blue 30 15 10

Orange 5 24 16
34
 MAPS

GMB ENTERPRISE

35
 89,526,124
Whoa! That’s a big number, aren’t
you proud?

36
 89,526,124$
That’s a lot of money

185,244 users
And a lot of users

100%
Total success!
37
LET’S REVIEW SOME CONCEPTS
Yellow
Is the color of gold, butter
and ripe lemons. In the
spectrum of visible light,
yellow is found between
green and orange.
Yellow
Is the color of gold, butter
and ripe lemons. In the
spectrum of visible light,
yellow is found between
green and orange.
Blue
Is the colour of the clear
sky and the deep sea. It is
located between violet
and green on the optical
spectrum.
Blue
Is the colour of the clear
sky and the deep sea. It is
located between violet
and green on the optical
spectrum.
Red
Is the color of blood, and
because of this it has
historically been
associated with sacrifice,
danger and courage.
Red
Is the color of blood, and
because of this it has
historically been
associated with sacrifice,
danger and courage.
38
ANDROID
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iPHONE
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TABLET
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DESKTOP
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43
CREDITS

Special thanks to all the people who

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