Global Warming and the

Sustainability of Indonesia

Dana A. Kartakusuma
Assistant Minister, Technology and Sustainable Development
Ministry of Environment Republic of Indonesia
March 2008
CONTENTS
 The Science of Climate Change (IPCCC, 2007)
 Source of Climate Change
 Impact to Indonesia

 Response:
 Sustainable Development
 Mitigation and Adaptation
 National Strategies (Draft)
Global Warming

Inter correlated

Climate Change
Greenhouse Gases
‘Greenhouse gases’ means those
gaseous constituents of the
atmosphere, both natural and
anthropogenic, that absorb and
re-emit infrared radiation
Kyoto Protocol regulates 6 major
groups of GHGs:
 CO2 – carbon dioxide

 CH4 – methane

 N2O - nitrous oxide

 PFCs – perfluorocarbons
 HFCs - hydrofluorocarbons

 SF6 – sulphur hexafluoride

 Some of this outgoing
Some energy is
infrared radiation is trapped
radiated back into by the earth’s atmosphere
space by the earth and warms it
in the form of
infrared waves

Most of this
radiation is
absorbed by the
Earth and warms it
The World Has Warmed

•Globally averaged: the planet is about 0.75°C warmer than it

was in 1860
•Eleven of the last 12 years are among 12 warmest since 1850
in the global average.
Direct observations of recent climate change
Changes in temperature, sea level and
northern hemisphere snow cover

Global average temperature

Global average sea level

Northern hemisphere
snow cover
Projections of Future Temperature Changes

• Best estimate for low

scenario (B1) : 1.8°C
(likely range 1.1°C - 2.9°C),
•

•High scenario (A1FI) is 4.0°C

(likely range 2.4°C - 6.4°C).
(IPCC, 2007)
SOURCE OF CLIMATE
CHANGE
Energy, agriculture, and forestry

Agriculture
Fossil
Energy Climate
GHGs
Change
Global
Warming

Forestry

CC impacts
GHG emissions
 Sources of Climate Change
 Fossil Energy Consumption (Oil and Coal) that produce green
house gasses
 Land Use Change (Forest Fire, Peat Land, and Deforestation)

Anthropogenic activities that produce green house gasses:

80% Fossil Energy Consumption + 20% LULUCF

Deforestation

Fossil Energy Consumption

CO2 Emission from Fossil Energy Consumption
120Pem bangkitListrik Industri
J utaTon
Rum ahTangga&Komersial Transportasi
100Lainnya

80

60

40

20

0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Source: DoEMR
 In 2004, Energy sector contributed roughly 280.31 Mt CO2 (Pusat
Informasi Energi, 2005), or around 80% of the total national
emission of CO2
 The total national emission of CO2 from all sectors increases
accordingly in correlation with the increase of fossil energy
consumption and population growth. The industry sector is the
highest contributor of CO2 emission.
Energy Intensity Indonesia is high
600

500
index (Japan =100)

400

300

200

100

0
Japan OECD Thailand Indonesia Malaysia North Germany
America
Energy Intensity Energy per Capita
Source: Ministry of Mines and Energy
 DEFORESTATION

Deforestation rate : Sumatera 1.5 million Ha per year,

Kalimantar 1,12 Million per Hectare
IMPACT OF CLIMATE
CHANGE
Developing countries, in
particular, tropical countries are
most vulnerable to the impact of
climate change
 Small Island submerged

Sea Level Rise Sea Water Intrusion

Decreasing of Fish Production

I Sea Temperature
M Rise

P Air Temperature Disease (Malaria, Dengue)

Rise
A
Increasing Floods, Landslides,
C Cultivation Schedule Chang
Rainfall
T
Increasing Drought, Food Security
Precipitation
Transportation
Increasing Tropical Typhoon
Water & Food Security
 Projected impacts of climate change (Stern, 2007)
Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial)
0°C 1°C 2°C 3°C 4°C 5°C
Food Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly
developing regions
Possible rising yields in Falling yields in many
some high latitude regions developed regions

Water Significant decreases in water

Small mountain glaciers Sea level rise
availability in many areas, including
disappear – water Mediterranean and Southern Africa threatens major cities
supplies threatened in
several areas

Ecosystems
Extensive Damage Rising number of species face extinction
to Coral Reefs
Extreme
Weather Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves
Events
Risk of Abrupt and
Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and
Major Irreversible
abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system
Changes
 Sea Level Rise

205
0

Source: Susandi, 2006 Source: Susandi et al, 2006

• The total 20th century global sea-level rise is estimated to be 0.17 [0.12-0.22]
m. It is projected to increase 0.18-0.59 m at the end of the century.
 Archipelago: Sea Level Rise: small island submerged
 Millions of people must move form coastal areaFloods from world rising
sea levels could displace up to 100 million people if no action is
taken (Stern Review, 2006)
 Agriculture World Wheat Production and
Consumption (Earth Trend, 2007)

Population Growth: Food Juta Metrik Ton

P r o d u kKs oi n s u m s i
Consumption Increasing
2 ,1 0 0
Climate change: El nino, la nina,
extreme weather Food production 2 ,0 0 0

decreasing 1 ,9 0 0
Food Production vs. Biofuels
1 ,8 0 0

1 ,7 0 0

1 ,6 0 0

The Prices have been significant 1 ,5 0 0

increasing Indonesia: most of the 1 9 91 09 91 19 91 29 91 39 91 49 91 59 91 69 91 79 91 89 92 90 02 00 02 10 02 20 02 30 02 40 02
commodities is imported  food
security !!!!
 Environmental Disaster

• Flood
• Drought : Clean Water
Shortage  Water Resources
Scarcity
• Typhoon
 Economic Loss
Economic loss cause of sea level rise
in Jakarta

Source: Susandi et al, 2006

 Jakarta Flood (2006): Rp 4.5 Trillion (Bappenas); Rp 8 Trillion (US$

500M-800M)
 Stern Report: Cut of World’s GDP (20%/year???)  no action (BAU),
while cost of mitigation: about 1-3% of World GDP
 Impacts of Impact (1)
FLOODS

Type of Impact 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 Total

A. Human
1. Death 185 216 270 671
2. Loss 18 104 106 228
3. Refugees 388,651 180,901 102,973 672,525
B. Facilities
1. House (bh) 57,087 58,285 54,479 169,851
2. Public Facilities (bh) 2,014
972 201 841
3. Paddy Field (ha) 868,965
180,603 604,435 83,927
4. Road (km) 1,618
1,005 217 396

utardi, Department PU, Presentation on Climate Change, Dec 2006

 IMPACT S OF DISASTER (2)
DROUGHT
Year Drought Impact (Ha) P u s o (Ha)
(Decreasing Production) (Failed Harvesting)

1990 s
1994 489.178 150.319
1995 18.462 3.385
1996 48.490 11.458

Total 556.130 165.162

Beginning of 2000s
2001 145.545 11.344
2002 298.678 30.694
2003 430.258 82.690

Total 874.481 124.728

Sutardi, Department of PU, Presentation on Climate Change, Dec 2006

 RESPONSE
SHIFT PRADIGM TO
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Need to develop and implement
sustainable development policies
.. in all environmental, social and economic sectors
 Energy
 Transport
 Forestry
 Agriculture
 Industry
 Technology
 Air, water and land resources
 Human health
 Social services

Sustainable development improving the quality of life

, would enhance the capacity to ADAPT AND
MITIGATE
Adaptation and mitigation

Climate change
and variability

Impacts

Mitigation Adaptation

Responses
 Situation in Indonesia

 Adaptation: Climate change in Asia including

Indonesia is marked by increasing temperature
and generally increasing rainfall and extreme
events  to mainstream adaptation strategies
into national development agenda

 Mitigation:is not mandatory for developing

countries  Common but different
responsibilities
CHALLENGES
 Sectoral Challenges:
 Sustainable Energy Supply  Efficiency (reduce energy intensity),
diversification, energy conservation and development of renewable
energy

 Improving access of energy to people  related to education and poverty

 Reduction of air and atmospheric pollution

 Sustainable Forest Management and Conservation

 Sustainable Development:
 Good governance: transparances, cleanliness, openness,
democracy, akuntability
 Environment to become central issue, no longer peripheral
 Cross sectoral and spatial and combination of top-down and
bottom-up approaches in development
 Institutional and human resource capacity development
 Involvement of all stakholders in decision making for strategic
development
NATIONAL STRATEGIES (DRAFT)

 MITIGATION
 Energy
 Conservation
 Fuel Switching: New and
Renewable Energy
Development

 LULUCF
 Aforestation and
reforestation
 Proposal of REDD (Reducing
Emission from Deforestation
in Developing Countries)
Government Policy

President Regulation No. 5/2006 on the “National Energy

Policy” and President Instruction No. 1/2006 on
Development of Biofuel
Coal Liquefaction
Geothermal
Bioethanol 2%
5%
Bio-oil
Biodiesel Biofuel
5%
Other New RE Natural gas
5% 30%

Oil
20%

Coal
33%
Energy Reserves and Potential
TYPE OF RESOURC RESERVE PRODUC RESERVES
FOSSIL ES S TION /PRODUCT NON FOSSIL RESOURC EQUIVALEN UTILIZATIO INSTALLED
ION RATIO ENERGY ES T N CAPACITY
ENERGY (Proven + (per
(W/O
Possible) YEAR) EXPLORAT
ION)
YEARS HYDRO 845 75,67 GW 6.851 GWh 4.200 MW
million
BOE

GEOTHERMAL 219 27 GW 2.593,5 807 MW

million GWh
OIL 86,9 9,1 billion 387 23 BOE
billion bbl bbl million
MINI/MICRO 500 MW 500 MW 84 MW
bbl HYDRO

GAS 384,7 185,8 2,95 62 BIOMASS 49,81 GW 445 MW

TSCF TSCF TSCF
SOLAR 4,80 8 MW
kWh/m2/day
COAL 57 billion 19,3 132 146
ton million million
WIND 3-6 0,6 MW
ton ton m/second

Source: DGEEU, 2005

•Fossil energies reserves will have been depleted in the

coming years
• Renewable energies potency are abundant  political will
 ADAPTATION
 Immediate Action:
 Reforestation at vulnerable and critical areas: i.g
upstream, critical land around water basin
 Community participation;
 Public education
 Capacity building: human respurces, equipment
 Mainstreaming climate change into national
planning development
 Medium and Long-term;
 Spatial planning
THANK YOU