Creating a Humane Society Using AI

Role of Cognition Amplifiers and Guardian Angels

Raj Reddy
Carnegie Mellon University
Pittsburgh, PA 15213
May 19, 2018
Talk at ACM China Workshop on AI, May 19, 2018, Shanghai
 AI Revisited:
Misconceptions and Hype
 What is AI?
·AI Does Not Attempt to Replace Humans
· Misconception leading to Many Outrageous Statements
· AI Will Kill Us All
· AI Will Enslave Us
·Singularity is a Myth
· The Role of Engineering is the Enhance the Physical Capabilities of Humans
· The Role of AI is to Enhance the Mental Capabilities of Humans
·Human Machine Symbiosis
· AI Can Solve Some Problems That Humans Cannot
· Big Data Driven Discoveries
· Humans Can Solve Some Problems That Machines Cannot
· Together They Can Solve Problems Faster Better and/or cheaper
 What is AI?
·AI is an attempt to automate tasks that are usually though to be uniquely
Human
· Requiring Intelligence, Intuition, Creativity, Innovation, Emotion, Empathy
· Usually Human coding using Heuristics, Rules, and
· Statistical Models - HMMs
· Non Sequential Algorithms
·Early Attempts
· Attempts to Solve Problem not Expressible as Classical Algorithms
· Proving Theorems, Playing Chess
· Understand Language, Speech, Images
· Create Robots that Sense Think and Act
·Later Systems attempted
· Compose music, Painting
· Automate trading in Stock Market
·Usually leads to Imperfect Solutions
· OCR error rates 99%
· 2010 Flash Crash: Dow Lost 1000 points in 36 minutes
 AI In 20th Century:
Use of Knowledge in Problem Solving
· An Intelligent System must
· Learns from Experience
· Use Vast Amount of Knowledge
· Tolerate Error and Ambiguity
· Respond in Real Time
· Communicate with Humans using Natural Language
· Search Compensates for Lack of Knowledge
· Puzzles
· Knowledge Compensates for Lack of Search
· F=ma; E = mc2
· Traditional Sources of Knowledge
· Formal Knowledge: Learnt in Schools and Universities
· Books, Manuals,
· Informal Knowledge: Heuristics from Peoples and Environment
· Human Encoding of Knowledge
· Expert Systems
· Knowledge Based System
· Rule Based Ssytem
 Major Breakthroughs in AI of the 20th Century
·Enabled by Brute-force, Heuristics, Human Coding of Rules and
Knowledge, and Simple Machine Learning (Pattern Recognition)
· World Champion Chess Machine
· IBM Deep Blue
· Mathematical Discovery
· Proof Checkers
· Accident Avoiding Car
· CMU: No Hands Across America
· Robotics
· Manufacturing Automation
· Disaster Rescue Robots
· Speech Recognition Systems
· Dictation Machine
· Computer Vision and Image Processing
· Medical Image Processing
· Expert Systems
· Rule Based Systems
· Knowledge Based Systems
 AI in 21st Century:
Discover and Use Data Driven Knowledge Sources
·Paradigm Shift in Science
· First 3 Paradigms: Experiment, Theory, Simulation
· Rutherford, Bohr, Oppenheimer
· 4th Paradigm: Data Driven Science
·Create Next Generation AI systems
· Data Driven AI systems
· To Solve Previously Unsolved Problems
·Previously Unavailable Sources of Data
· Knowledge from Big Data:
· Data Driven Learning of Models and Algorithms
· Knowledge from Multiple (Cross) Media:
· Social Media Intelligence Gathering
· From All Language Sources
· From All the Media: Text, Speech, Image and Video
· Knowledge from Crowd Intelligence:
· Global Brain: from Individual Intelligence to Collective Intelligence
· Knowledge from Augmented Intelligence:
· Human-Machine Hybrid Intelligence for Collaborative Problem Solving
· Knowledge from Unmanned Autonomous Vehicles:
· Intelligence from Collaborating Teams of Robots
·Automatic Discovery of New Knowledge
· Machine Learning using Big Data
· Deep Learning
 Major Breakthroughs in AI in 21st Century
·Enabled by Big Data and Machine Learning
· Language Translation
· Google Translate: Any Language to Any Language
· Speech to Speech Dialog
· Siri, Cortana, Alexa
· Autonomous Vehicles
· CMU, Stanford, Google, Tesla
· Deep Question Answering
· IBM’s Watson
· RoboSoccer
· World Champion Poker
· CMU Libratus
· No Limit Texas Hold’em Poker
Intelligent Agents, Intelligence Amplifiers, Augmented Intelligence
Cognition Amplifiers and Guardian Angels
 Cognition Amplifiers and Guardian Angels
in Service of Society
• Cognition Amplifiers and Guardian Angels are two
families of Intelligent Agents that can help with Societal
Problems
• A Cognition Amplifier (COG) is a Personal Enduring
Autonomic Intelligent Agent that anticipates what you
want to do and helps you to do it with less effort
• A Guardian Angel (GAT) is a Personal Enduring
Autonomic Intelligent Agent that Discovers And Warns
You About Unanticipated Events That Could Impact
Your Safety, Security, and Happiness
• Each Person has Thousands of Cogs and Gats as
Personal Assistants 10
 COGs and GATs in Service of Society
• COGs personalized and mass customized agents as part of
KaaS for
• Buying and selling: Transact with multiple providers
• Email: Filter spam, understand and respond to actionable email
• News: Based on topic preferences, novelty, collaborative filtering
• Banking: Monitor bank account, Credit Cards, Pay Bills
• Travel: Flights, hotel, schedule disruptions, cancellations
• GATs are personalized and mass customized agents as part of
KaaS for
• Just-in-Time Warnings: Hurricanes, Earthquakes, Extreme Weather
• Act as Coach in Health and Education Matters
• Accident Alerts and Rerouting; Transport Strikes
• Scarcity of Essential Resources: Food, Energy, Water etc.
• Assume Everyone on the Planet has Personalized Cognition
Amplifiers (COGs) and Guardian Angels (GATs)
 Steps in Creating Smart X
•Smart X: Water Security, Food Security, etc.
• Guardian Angel Apps Dedicated to each Task for each Person
•To Create COGs and GATs in Service of Society We Need
(Big) Data from Every Person on The Planet
• Time, Location (GPS), Accelerometers, Barometers, Microphones
and Cameras
• GigaBytes Per Person Every Day
•Monitor, Diagnose, and Repair Cycle For Each Human Need
• Activity Monitoring enables
• Discovery of Intention which enables
• Cognition Amplifiers (COGs) and Guardian Angels (GATs)
 Necessary Conditions for
Success in Development of COGs and GATs
• Infrastructure
• Instrument Data Sources
• People
• Places and
• Things
• Computing Power: Processor, Memory and Bandwidth
• Multi Farm Cloud Computing
• Super Computers for Processing
• Zettabyte (10 Bytes) Storage Farms
21

• Million Gigabit bandwidth

• Machine Learning and Analytics
 Technologies of Guardian Angels
Guardian Angels Publish and Subscribe
• Service Agents are created by service providers using agent templates
included in the platform
• Download and Pay just as for Apps and Personalization
• Guardian Angels Can request and manage services on behalf of their
Wards.
• Every organization that wants to enable access to their services by Guardian
Angels will create a Service Agent for this purpose.
• Opt-in “Waze” like Models
• Privacy
• Individual
• Other participants
• Legal
• Can be subpoena-ed
• Security
• Information falling into wrong hands
 What do mean by Serving Society?
Find an Innovative Solutions For Societal Needs
 Serving the Society – I
Embrace Universal Human Rights of United Nations
1 Right to Equality 2 Freedom from Discrimination
3 Right to Life Liberty Happiness 4 Freedom from Slavery
5 Freedom from Torture 6 Right to Recognition as Person
7 Right to Equality before Law 8 Right to a Competent Tribunal
9 Freedom from Arbitrary Arrest 10 Right to Fair Public Hearing
11 Innocent until Proven Guilty 12 Right to Privacy and Home
13 Right to Free Movement 14 Right to Asylum
15 Right to a Nationality 16 Right to Marriage and Family
17 Right to Own Property 18 Freedom of Religion
19 Freedom of Opinion 20 Right of Peaceful Assembly
21 Right to Free Elections 22 Right to Social Security
23 Right to Join Trade Unions 24 Right to Rest and Leisure
25 Adequate Living Standard 26 Right to Education
27 Right to Cultural Life 28 Right to a Social Order
29 Free and Full Development30 Freedom from Interference
 Serving the Society – II
Embrace Sustainable Development Goals of UN
1: End poverty in all its forms everywhere
2: End hunger, achieve food security and promote sustainable agriculture
3: Ensure good health and promote well-being for all at all ages
4: Ensure quality education for all and promote lifelong learning
5: Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls
6: Ensure access to water and sanitation for all
7: Ensure access to affordable, clean energy for all
8: Promote inclusive and sustainable economic growth and employment
9: Build resilient infrastructure, promote sustainable industrialization
10: Reduce inequality within and among countries
11: Inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable cities
12: Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns
13: Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts
14: Conserve and sustainable use of marine resources
15: Sustainable use of forests and combat desertification
16: Promote just, peaceful and inclusive societies
 Serving the Society – III
Actionable Sustainable Development Goals
SDG
1. Water Security 6
2. Energy Security 7
3. Food Security 2
4. Health 3
5. Education 4
6. Multilingual Communication 9
7. Transportation 9
8. Sanitation and Hygiene 6
9. Housing ?
10.Jobs 8
11.Disaster Warning and Relief ?
 Creating a Humane Society Using AI:
Role of Cognition Amplifiers and Guardian Angels
Leads Us to the Realm of Solving Problems That Human Don’t know Hoe to Solve
 Basic Services Needed by Everyone
• Water
• Energy
• Food
• Health
• Education
• Communication
• Transportation
• Sanitation
• Housing
• Jobs
• Disaster Relief
 Essential Services
Based on UN Sustainable Development Goals
• Smart Water Security
• Smart Energy Security
• Smart Food Security
• Smart Health
• Smart Education
• Smart Multilingual Communication
• Smart Transportation
• Smart Sanitation and Hygiene
• Smart Housing
• Smart Jobs
• Smart Disaster Warning and Relief
Creating a Guardian Angel
 Architecture of Guardian Angelss
Guardian Angelss Publish and Subscribe
• Guardian Angelss are Mobile Apps that can be enabled for Any Person on the Planet
• Unlike APPs of today, Guardian Angelss are Mass-customized to Each Individual
• Designed to be Non-intrusive, Autonomic, and Device Independent
• Always On, Always Present and Always Working
• Always Learning
• Enduring (life-long)
• Guardian Angelss Monitor, Analyze and Learn From Experience;
• Learn From Own Experience And Experience of Others
• And share knowledge with a community of Guardian Angelss
• Automated Discovery of Data and Information Sources
• Guardian Angelss Publish and Subscribe Anonymized Data of User Activities and
Experiences
• Data, suitably anonymized, can be used to learn appropriate responses for every
possible situation by
• Learning preferences by observing user choices,
• Learning by task similarity and user similarity,
• Learning by error correction and
• Simply learning thru clarification dialog ( does that mean yes? Would you care to define it?)
Cloud Based Architecture of Guardian Angels
• Always On
• App Instantiation in the Cloud
• Activity Monitoring: iPhone Sensor data

• Always Working
• Diagnosis and Repair

• Always Learning
• Publish/Subscribe
Personalization and Customization of Guardian Angels
Cloud Based Guardian Angel Platform Linked to User Smart Phone

Learning Security Big Data Dialog Self Healing

• Learn by Watching • Multimodal • With humans • Detect errors
• Learn by being authentication
Management • With other agents • Resolve errors
• Process, index,
taught • Continuous
story and retrieve
• Learn by doing authentication
data
• Learn by asking • Encryption
• Mine, Cluster, and
others
Summarize
• Learn by discovery
relevant
experience

Power Mgmt Activity Multi-Sensor Autonomic Etc.

Monitoring Integration Systems

Family of Personalized Guardian Angels

Subscribe to Local, National and Global Sources and Act on Relevant Information
 Publish/Subscribe Eco System of
Guardian Angel Global Infrastructure Platform

Activity Monitoring
and Intention User Guardian Angels
Awareness

Cloud Based
User Infrastructure
Platform

Knowledge Source Publishers

Global, National and Local

Knowledge Source Distributors

ReTweet Model

Global DataBase of Humankind

How Do I Get a Guardian Angel?
Guardian Angel Market Place
 Scalable Sustainable Affordable
Personal Guardian Angels
• By 2020, Everyone on The Planet Has Access to a Phone with
Global Connectivity
• A Phone is Expected to Cost $50
• Every Man, Woman And Child will have Access to 16GB+ of
Space on The Cloud from Facebook, Google And Microsoft
• Everyone on The Planet Has Access to
• Unlimited Computation, Memory and Bandwidth
• Language divide and literacy divide limits access to the
internet-enabled solutions to many people in the world.
• Providing the right information in the right language and right medium
enables scalability to all the people on the planet.
• Sustainability and Affordability are natural consequences of
exponential reduction in size and cost of Information
Technology.
28
 Technology Challenge
• Creation of Guardian Angel Technologies for providing
the right information to every man, woman and child on
the planet can lead to Life Liberty and Happiness for all
• While the cost appears to be prohibitive, on a per
capita basis it represents less than 0.1% of GWP.
• A Social Network Of Guardian Angels that can
anticipate and share potential disaster scenarios can
save 50% to 80% of all accidental deaths in the world
• and save millions of lives and hundreds of billions of dollars
of property damage every year

29
 Affordability
• Free Sensor Intensive Smart Phone to Every
Person on the Planet: Current cost of $200/Unit
• Estimated 2020 Cost per Unit of $50
• Assuming 8B population
• One per Family of 4? One per Person?
• Expected Global Cost $100 to $400 Billion
• 0.1% to 0.4% of the Gross World Product
• Funding from Government and Other Stakeholders
• Smart Phone Manufacturers
• Telecom Service Providers
• IT Product and Service Companies
• Increase in Economic Activity and Productivity
• Expected Payback Time: Less than 1 year
 …and Privacy
• A Facebook of Guardian Angels Are Able To Share
Anonymized Knowledge Using Publish/Subscribe
Mechanisms Of Social Networking, and
• Enabling Each Guardian Angel to Learn and Predict What
Events Are Likely To Impact their Protégé
• A Guardian Angel Knows the Location Information of
The Protégé at All Times so as to Provide an Alert
and/or a Detailed Notification. If Needed, It Must Be
Able to Turn-on The Phone.
• No Privacy Breach Since Each Guardian Angel only
Shares Information Already Known to the Service
Provider

31
 Potential Economic Impact of AI 2.0
Emergence of Knowledge as a Service (KaaS) Industry

• Every person on the planet will be able to perform many

daily habits more effectively using Guardian Angelss
• Daily habits (routines, activities) include a wide spectrum from routine
tasks (such as banking and travel planning) to tasks too difficult for the
user
• Over 80% of all human activity will done by Guardian
Angelss by 2020
• 7 Billion People Market Vs 2 Billion Today
• Ultimately Humans Could be 10 Times More Efficient
and Effective
• Global GDP is $100 Trillion
• Even 10% improvement will lead to $10T additional
wealth creation