Trend

analysis of
agriculture
sector in
INDIA since
1991
By Sayantan Basu
 Data analysis of Indian agriculture in 2 phases

To analyze the current trends in Indian agriculture

To analyze the trends in terms of different components of Income

OBJECTIVE To see the land holding pattern in India

S
To take a quick look at the Agri Budget 2020

To predict the future trends in Indian agriculture

To advise some policy recommendation

 DATA ANALYSIS I

• BEFORE 1991 5.00

Agriculture growth rates
1951-60 1961-70 1971-80 1981-90
• Largest employer; more than 80% population 4.50
doing agriculture related activities 4.00
• Use of primitive and traditional methods prior 3.50
to mid-1960s . Initiatives like the Green 3.00
Revolution(food grains), Yellow Revolution(oil
2.50
seeds), Operation Flood(milk and dairy
products), Blue Revolution(fish) etc 2.00

1.50
• Infrastructure for irrigation was provided by
the government itself. If not so, it ensured 1.00

that the said item was provided at a 0.50

subsidized rate 0.00

Agriculture and allied Agriculture

 DATA ANALYSIS II
• Since 1991
• The policy of Liberalisation, Privatisation and
Globalisation not only affected the largely
secondary and tertiary sector of the country but
also the primary sector, which comprised mainly
of the agricultural sector and other agro- based
sectors and industries
• Liberalization and removal of restrictions on
internal trade in agricultural commodities, across
states within India
• Financial liberalization measures, including
redefining priority sector lending by banks, which
effectively reduced the availability of rural credit,
and thus made farm investment more expensive
and more difficult, especially for smaller farmers
CURRENT TRENDS IN
INDIAN AGRICULTURE
• The agriculture sector employs nearly half of the workforce in the
country. However, it contributes to 17.5% of the GDP (at current
prices in 2015-16).
• Over the past few decades, the agriculture sector’s contribution
has decreased from more than 50% of GDP in the 1950s to 15.4%
in 2015-16 (at constant prices).
• It is the highest producer of milk and second highest producer of
fruits and vegetables. In 2013, India contributed, 13% to the
wheat production.
• It also accounted for about 25% of the total quantity of cotton
produced, besides being the second highest exporter of cotton for
the past several years
PRODUCTION
• Total production of food grains increased from 51 million tonnes
in 1950-51 to 252 million tonnes in 2015-16. According to the
second advance estimate by the Ministry of Agriculture, food
grains production is estimated to be 272 million tonnes in 2016-
17.
• The production of wheat and rice took off after the green
revolution in the 1960s, and as of 2015-16, wheat and rice
accounted for 78% of the food grains production in the country
• Although India is the second highest producer of paddy (rice) in
the world (as of 2013), its yield is lower than China, Brazil and
the USA. It is also the leading producer of pulses, but its yield is
the lowest.
 • The all India real public
expenditure, was estimated
to have risen from Rs. 455
billion in 1995 to Rs. 1,595
billion in 2011
• A significant proportion on
the expenditure for
agriculture in agriculture has
been in the form of capital
expenditure from 26% in
1995 to 29% in 2002-07 but
declined to 24% in 2011

GOVERNMENT
EXPENDITURE
INVESTMENTS

•In absolute terms, public investments

grew 3.5 times from Rs 140 billion in
1995 to Rs 456 billion in 2011.

•In 2011 as compared to 1995, except

Bihar, Punjab, Assam, Rajasthan and
West Bengal. Maharashtra and Andhra
Pradesh attained substantially higher
investment intensity as compared to
poverty stricken states of Rajasthan and
Bihar.
•Public investments in all states grew by
5.4 % in 1990s and 7.3% in 2000s
EXPORTS AND
IMPORTS
•Over the past few decades,
the share of agricultural
imports in total imports has
increased from 2.8% in 1990-
91 to 4.2% in 2014-15,
whereas the share of
agricultural exports has
reduced from 18.5% to 12.7%.
•India’s trade policy is affected
by factors such as domestic
availability of commodities,
cost of production as well as
global price levels
 LAND HOLDING
PATTERN
140 million hectare of land is
used as agricultural area, as of
2012-13. Over the years, this area
has been fragmented into smaller
pieces of land

Since smaller land holdings are

either fragments of larger
holdings which have been passed
on within the family or have been
informally leased by a large
holder.
 The government has provided 30 per cent increase in
the fund allocation at Rs 1,42,761.58 crore for the

A LOOK next fiscal year.

INTO
AGRICULTU
RE
The Minister stressed on raising fish production to
200 lakh tonnes by 2022-23

BUDGET
2020 Under the PM Kisan Yojna, the Finance Minister has
set the agriculture credit target for the financial year
2020-21 at Rs 15 lakh crore
FUTURE TRENDS IN INDIAN
AGRICULTURE
Digital innovation in agriculture is the thing to look out for. We are likely to see streamlining of the
policies, creation of necessary infrastructure to test and commercialise the innovation and creating
incentives for adoption of these innovation, which can boost the infusion of digital solutions in the
conventional businesses.

Climate change is high on the priority list. There is should be an 

effective climate risk mitigation strategy for effective water management, adopting to rising
temperatures, facing drought situations.

Water management initiatives like watershed management, drip irrigation and water user
association can play an important role in the strengthening the agricultural sector
POLICY RECOMMENDATION

1 2 3 4

Rebalance the Strengthen the role Improve agricultural Make trade work
Policy package to of agriculture in and governance for Indian
foster sustainable enhancing food and system agriculture
productivity nutrition security
growth.
 India’s agro-food sector is at a
critical juncture, facing multiple
challenges and multiple
opportunities.

CONCLUSI
ON Quality infrastructure, education
and skills, well-functioning financial
markets, strong market institutions,
rule of law, excellence in innovation
systems, and integration in global
markets will be needed to create
the sustained